Dems In Prime Position With Two Days To Go

Washington Post Analysis: Polls Show Obama Well Ahead, Democrats Heading Toward Expanded Majorities In Congress

(Washington Post)  This story was written by David S. Broder, Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza.

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Barack Obama and the Democrats hold a commanding position two days before Tuesday's election, with the senator from Illinois leading in states whose electoral votes total nearly 300 and with his party counting on significantly expanded majorities in the House and Senate.

John McCain is running in one of the worst environments ever for a Republican presidential nominee. The senator from Arizona has not been in front in any of the 159 national polls conducted over the past six weeks. His slender hopes for winning the White House now depend on picking up a major Democratic stronghold or fighting off Obama's raids on most of the five states President Bush won four years ago that now lean toward the Democrat. He also must hold onto six other states that Bush won in 2004 but are considered too close to call.

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Ways To Win
Calculate your own path to the presidency with our Electoral Vote prediction map.

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Two factors cloud the final weekend projections. The first is how voters ultimately respond to the prospect of the first African American president in U.S. history, a force that could make the contest closer than it appears. The other, which pushes in the opposite direction, is whether Obama can expand the electorate to give him an additional cushion in battleground states.

Obama leads in every state that Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry won four years ago, which gives him a base of 252 electoral votes of the 270 needed to win. He also has leads of varying sizes in five states Bush won: Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. Were he to win all of those on Tuesday, he would claim the presidency with 291 electoral votes.

The tossup states include traditional battlegrounds such as Ohio, Florida and Missouri, as well as North Carolina, Indiana and Montana, which have been firmly in the Republican column in the past. They account for 87 electoral votes, and if Obama were to win several of them, his electoral vote total could push well into the 300s.

In Senate races, Democrats, who control 51 votes, are closing in on a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority. Three GOP-held seats whose Republicans are retiring -- in Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia -- appear almost certain to go to Democrats. In five other states -- Alaska, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Oregon -- incumbent Republicans are seriously threatened. To get to 60, Democrats would have to win all those seats, plus one of three other competitive races: in Georgia, Kentucky and Mississippi.

In the House, Democrats look to repeat their gains of two years ago, when they picked up 31 seats and took control of the chamber. On Tuesday, they could add 25 to 30 seats to that majority, which would bring them to their highest number since 1990, when they had 267 seats. Ten Republican-held seats lean toward Democrats, and two dozen are viewed as tossups. Five Democratic-held seats are considered up for grabs.

Of the 11 gubernatorial races, only three are competitive. Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon has the advantage over Rep. Kenny Hulshof in Missouri, where Republican Gov. Matt Blunt is not running for reelection. Two other races in states held by Democrats are considered tossups.

In Washington, Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire, who won a controversial victory four years ago, faces a tough rematch against businessman Dino Rossi. In North Carolina, where Democratic Gov. Mike Easley is term-limited, Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue and Republican Pat McCrory, the mayor of Charlotte, are in a race that is too close to call.

These projections are based on interviews by a team of Washington Post reporters with strategists in both parties, the presidential campaigns, state and local officials, and other analysts. The projections also include an analysis of a wealth of polling data on individual races and states.

In the Washington Post-ABC News daily tracking poll, Obama currently holds a nine-point national advantage, topping McCain 53 to 44 percent. The poll started after the last of the three presidential debates, and Obama's margin has held between seven and 11 points throughout.

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Polling Pulse: See the latest Real Clear Politics polling averages for nationwide and key state polls.

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More than half of all voters in the Post-ABC poll say the economy is their central voting issue, and Obama has been the main beneficiary of that focus. He has a double-digit edge on the question of which candidate is better able to handle the economy, and he has had even wider leads as the one who is more in touch with the financial problems people face.

Presidential

No Democrat has won more than 50.1 percent of the national vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976, but Obama could eclipse that number on Tuesday if current projections hold. McCain advisers said yesterday that they think the race has tightened but acknowledged that the senator has a difficult path to victory, given the economy, Bush's unpopularity and the sour public mood.

Early on, Obama set his sights on expanding the number of battleground states. He has used his superior financial resources to put Democrats in a competitive position in places where they have not been before. With the largest war chest in presidential history, Obama has heavily outspent McCain on television and has poured millions into building an enormous field organization around the country. As a result, he has many more options to get to 270 electoral votes.

David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, said he has always assumed the race would be close in the end, but added: "We are entering the election with a lot of different scenarios to win the election, which was always our number one strategic goal. We think we are not in danger in any of the Kerry states, and we've got obviously about a dozen Bush states that we think are potentially winnable. So, a lot of different ways to get to 270."

McCain strategists insist that he is still in a position to win. But his margin of error is very small. He is investing time and resources in Pennsylvania, the one big state Democrats carried four years ago where his advisers think he has a chance to win. McCain is currently behind in Pennsylvania, but even if he were to win there, and hold onto Ohio and Florida, he could still lose if Obama carries the five Bush states where he is now leading.

Bill McInturff, McCain's pollster, offered a counter view by saying that the contest is shifting in the final days and that it is highly competitive. "The race is changing quickly," he said, "and I believe we're seeing real movement that is putting this race within margin of error nationally and too close to call in too many states to be able to predict the outcome."

Obama lost Pennsylvania to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the primaries, and some Democrats have fretted publicly that the state's older population and the issue of race make it a more difficult state for him than many others. Democratic Gov. Edward G. Rendell said he expects a massive vote from Philadelphia and a potentially strong showing in the surrounding suburbs to compensate for weaknesses in other parts of the state.

[freedomobama]

4th Amendment

[vincan-2009]

The republican party is really only good at one thing - demonizing the good and decent Democratic candidates. People who make up the republican party are so gullible they believe any and all lies that republicans can spew. It is amazing that there are so many people who are not outraged at what republicans have done. Bush starting a war without proof, republicans in our government were busy enriching the rich and making sure our future gets dimmer and dimmer. Republicans also have been busy with hate filled lies that are outrageously false and unbelieveable. But you choose to believe them, why? Don''t you care about your children and your children''s children. Things are really looking grim. McCain is not up to this job. We need Senator Obama''s wise leadership and his goodness. Regardless of what you want to believe, Senator Obama is the most worthy and the best choice we have had in a long time to be a wonderful president.

[oldguy4truth]

I see obama has kicked his aunt under the bus. The poor woman gave $260.00 to Obama''''s campaign. What did Obama give her ??? A foot in theass as he kicked her under the bus...
How can you trust a man that would treat his aunt like that. He acted like he did not even know her. What a jerk...

I have some aunts that I would kick under the buss.. Don''t everyone?

[tuffone31]

Let''''s review his platform:

No American Oil.
No American Coal.
No American nuclear power plants.
No American free trade agreement.
No more 22nd Amendment to U.S. Constitution.*
*Obama: President for Life.

VOTE: McCain/Palin 2008
LIVE FREE OR DIE.

[Confidential416]

I am an independent voter in PA and I refuse to let the republicans run this country out of fear... they have destroyed this country financially and globally.
A vote for McCain is a vote for the Same
McCain uses fear to get your vote

A vote for Obama is a vote for Change
Vote like you are the tiebreaker
Vote for Change - we are tired of the same ole'' politics
Vote for Obama

[kmaxrno]

amen david well said

[david1737]

McCain has been part of the corruption and gridlock in Washington for 26 years, now he promises change.

McCain was one of the Keating 5 (the Savings and Loan scandal, caused by deregulation of the Savings banks, which cost tax payers $1.4 trillion,)

McCain quote:

"I think the deregulation was probably helpful to the growth of our economy."

(Deregulation is root cause the the Subprime meltdown.)

[david1737]

GM stock has dropped 80% since last year.

GM is losing 1 Billion a month.

If GM goes under a total of 13 million jobs in related industries could be lost.


McCain quotes:

"I don%u2019t understand how the economy works, I%u2019ve got to get a V.P. that will show me how it works."

Palin, McCain''''s V.P. choice, simply doesn''''t fill the hole in McCain''''s admitted economic "bucket".

[neederbaur]

I JUST DON''T KNOW WHY HE PLEADS I DON''T KNOW EVERY TIME HE IS CHALLENGED?From Dreams of My Father: "I ceased to advertise my mother''''''''s race at the age of 12 or 13, when I began to suspect that by doing so I was ingratiating myself to whites."

From Dreams of My Father: "I found a solace in nursing a pervasive sense of grievance and animosity against my mother''''''''s race."

From Dreams of My Father: "There was something about him that made me wary, a little too sure of himself, maybe. And white."

From Dreams of My Father: ; "It remained necessary to prove which side you were on, to show your loyalty to the black masses, to strike out and name names."

From Dreams of My Father: "I never emulate white men and brown men whose fates didn''''''''t speak to my own. It was into my father''''''''s image, the black man, son of Africa, that I''''''''d packed all the attributes I sought in myself, the attributes of Martin and Malcolm, Dubois and Mandela."

From Audacity of Hope: "I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction."

[neederbaur]

THE DEMS NEVER INHALE.BUT THEY TAKE IN THE SMOKE.From Dreams of My Father: "I ceased to advertise my mother''''s race at the age of 12 or 13, when I began to suspect that by doing so I was ingratiating myself to whites."

From Dreams of My Father: "I found a solace in nursing a pervasive sense of grievance and animosity against my mother''''s race."

From Dreams of My Father: "There was something about him that made me wary, a little too sure of himself, maybe. And white."

From Dreams of My Father: ; "It remained necessary to prove which side you were on, to show your loyalty to the black masses, to strike out and name names."

From Dreams of My Father: "I never emulate white men and brown men whose fates didn''''t speak to my own. It was into my father''''s image, the black man, son of Africa, that I''''d packed all the attributes I sought in myself, the attributes of Martin and Malcolm, Dubois and Mandela."

From Audacity of Hope: "I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction."

[clovisbuford]

its been fun trolls , Nov.4th matters , not anyones BS here . Policies matter ..whhheeeee . Nov.5th has the possibility of being a glorious day .Hope 2008

[targaray-2009]

Bush/McCain/Palin are on the Low-Road to the Highest Office in the Land...

- NOT THIS TIME - VOTE FOR CHANGE - 2008

[clovisbuford]

ASK YOURSELF, WHY WOULD OBAMA DEMOCRAT SPEECH WRITER DEFECT TO JOHN MCCAIN, WHAT DID SHE SEE, WHAT DID SHE HEAR, WHAT IS SHE AFRAID OF. SHE HAD FRONT ROW SEAT AND HEARD THE THOUGHTS AND WORDS OF OBAMA PRIVATELY.
Hannity 2008."first off the CAP leter are not only rude they are annoying troll. Let''s see AlQueda has endorsed Mccain on theri web sites, Colin POwell American genral over oure armed forces , sec.of state under Bush has endorsed Obama. (R) jim leach, former rep.Iowa(R) Lincoln Chaffe former senator (r) Weld former gov mass.(R) anne carlson former gov.,(R)charles Mathias ,former senator Maryland , (R) Weiker,former bovernor ,senator ,Conn.(R) susan eisenhower , granddaughter of (R) CC Goldwater Granddaughter of Barry ,(r) christopher Buckley son of william f Buckley
www.rebulicansforobama.org there are many more

[sickofpalin]

repub''s must be really leaderless if palin is the raising star

the country is moving left of center

the repub''s are moving right to center

that makes 2012 and 2016 not good for the GOP

[sickofpalin]

the only smelly thing in this election is palin and her nasty mouth

mclose tolerated the right wing and he choose unwisely

[neederbaur]

From Dreams of My Father: "I ceased to advertise my mother''s race at the age of 12 or 13, when I began to suspect that by doing so I was ingratiating myself to whites."

From Dreams of My Father: "I found a solace in nursing a pervasive sense of grievance and animosity against my mother''s race."

From Dreams of My Father: "There was something about him that made me wary, a little too sure of himself, maybe. And white."

From Dreams of My Father: ; "It remained necessary to prove which side you were on, to show your loyalty to the black masses, to strike out and name names."

From Dreams of My Father: "I never emulate white men and brown men whose fates didn''t speak to my own. It was into my father''s image, the black man, son of Africa, that I''d packed all the attributes I sought in myself, the attributes of Martin and Malcolm, Dubois and Mandela."

From Audacity of Hope: "I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction."

[passerby4]

The way to look at this is what will the country be like for America after the election. A strong America is an America where people are in the unconditional responsibility for how they are creating their life. An Obama administration won''t support people in being able to be responsible unless there is a huge shift in consciousness. So the question to ask yourself is... are the people around you able to make a monumental shift in consciousness? If not, then an Obama administration will dis-empower this country greatly to the point of where people would expect others to do it for them.

McCain will be a better candidate to support people being able to be unconditionally responsible for themselves, thus making a stronger America because everyone will be more likely and willing to stand in their own responsibility.

[hannity2008]

was one month ago going to vote for Obama and so was Wendy Button , Obama speech writer(I am not kidding). And then saw an Ad on Obama and Ayers. So I decided to investigate and what I found appalled me. I cannot beleive people are thinking of Voting for Obama when there is a dangerous pattern.

1.Obama and Bill Ayers Annenberg Challenge Coverup
2.Obama and RASHID, a palestine terrorist
3.Obama and Rev Wright
4.OBama and the socialist demcratic association
5.Obama and Acorn
6.Obmaa and Rev Flaggert
7.Hamas donated 30k to Obama
8.International Solidarity Movement
9.Wheels of Justice
10.Rezko
11.And now ACORN to the list of Obama radical associations.



Obama is the most left wing radical terrorist sympathizer who is pro-muslim and anti-Isreal. Obama is pro-black. Obama is arrogant, lies and throws people under the bus to pursue power. Obama is dangerous for this country. In a post 911 World , I dont understand how the Main Stream Media is not reporting or investigating Obama background. CAN anyone name a person in the past besides Michelle, Rev WRight, BIll AYers, Rezko who can VOUCH for Obama.

ASK YOURSELF, WHY WOULD OBAMA DEMOCRAT SPEECH WRITER DEFECT TO JOHN MCCAIN, WHAT DID SHE SEE, WHAT DID SHE HEAR, WHAT IS SHE AFRAID OF. SHE HAD FRONT ROW SEAT AND HEARD THE THOUGHTS AND WORDS OF OBAMA PRIVATELY.

OBAMA SPEECH WRITER DEFECTS....WAKE UP AMERICA...EVEN THE SPEECH WRITER SMELLS SOCIALISM.

[babooph]

All this nasty stuff -mostly lies -one of the two will win soon-the nation cannot be "one" after the election !!!

[hannity2008]

ASK OBAMA SPEECH WRITER WHO SHE IS GOING TO VOTE FOR. SURPISE!!! ITS NOT OBAMA.

Wendy Button a Democrat was able to put down on paper Obama thoughts and positions. She was actually in Obama head pulling out information. Wendy does not want the Radical Socialist to lead our country into despair and depression and possible a Marxist Society.

LISTEN TO WENDY BUTTON, SHE IS A SMART INFORMED WOMAN AND A DEMOCRAT.