Obama Tells Voters: Don't Be Overconfident

Leading In The Polls, Democratic Nominee Stresses To His Supporters That Election Is Not Over

(AP)  "Here I am, signed, sealed, delivered."

That's what the giddy crowds at Barack Obama's campaign rallies hear when he walks off the stage, the booming sound of Stevie Wonder singing about the promise of a sure thing.

The curious part is that Obama keeps saying just the opposite: Not one thing is sealed.

"We can't afford to slow down, or sit back, or let up, for one day, for one minute, for one second in this last week," the Democratic presidential nominee told supporters Thursday.

"Not now. Not now," Obama said in the Florida sunshine. "We've got to work hard."

For a range of reasons - the slippery nature of polls, the Democrats' history of heartbreak, the still-to-be-determined effect of race, the desire not to jinx himself - Obama is, in fact, working the vote hard.

In his race against Republican John McCain, Obama has gone big, drawing hundreds of thousands of people to rallies in the last few days alone. He used his fundraising muscle to buy a prime-time TV slot for his infomercial, viewed by 33.6 million, and touted his new unity with former President Clinton.

But Obama also is careful to look engaged individually, too. Twice this week, in campaign offices outside Denver and in Pittsburgh, he got on the phone directly with voters.

One woman grilled him at length about his environmental record. One said she wanted tickets to his inauguration. One made him smile by saying she was 100 percent Obama.

"I won't let you down," he told her.

It is standard election politics not to look cocky. Voters hate being taken for granted. Yet the tone of Obama's argument suggests he is going beyond playing it safe.

Despite all the polling pointing in his favor, there remains a feeling in his campaign that anything can happen at the end. Obama appears easy and unworried - he even took time Thursday to visit a pumpkin patch - but signs and words of overconfidence are shunned.

"Complacency kills campaigns," said Mark Mellman, a Democratic strategist and John Kerry's pollster during the 2004 presidential race. "Winners always run like they are behind."

That helps explain why Obama barreled on with an outdoor rally in Pennsylvania this week despite the foul weather. The thousands of people who showed up endured sideways rain, cold chills and mud. McCain canceled a similar rally 50 miles away.

Obama told them: "If we see this kind of dedication on Election Day, there is no way that we're not going to bring change to America."

Late come-from-behind wins are rare in presidential races.

In Gallup polling, only twice in the past 14 elections did a candidate lose the popular vote after being ahead about a week before the election. They were Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980 and President Bush in 2000, although he won the electoral vote.

As the election closes in, Obama leads McCain in most national polls, and most state surveys show him running strong in traditional Democratic states and leading in some that Bush won in 2004, including Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. That makes a path for a McCain victory difficult to discern.

Mellman said all those polls assume that every Obama supporter will turn out to vote, and that every volunteer will do what it takes to turn out the vote.

"Don't believe for one second in these polls," Obama told a crowd of 35,000 people outside Orlando, Fla., late Wednesday night. "Power concedes nothing. We are going to work over the next five days like our lives depended on it. We're going to have to struggle."

When Obama talks of that election struggle, others have a hard time believing. His consistent lead in the polls has even become part of the late-night TV comedy conversation.

Craig Ferguson of CBS' "Late Late Show" put it this way: "Obama is so far ahead now, seems the only way he can lose is if his supporters screw it up. But aha! Obama's supporters have a secret weakness: They are Democrats."

One way to look at Obama's approach is that he's not just running to win. He's trying to sweep every single state in play, giving him and his party a crushing win and big leverage.

A more sober reading is that Obama has already learned one humbling lesson this year.

He scored a surprise victory in the Iowa caucuses and then, while riding high, promptly lost the New Hampshire primary to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

"The great thing about having run for 21 months is we know from hard experience that you shouldn't take anything for granted," Obama adviser David Axelrod said in an interview.

"We've been ahead and we've been behind," he said. "Sometimes we've assumed that when we're ahead - New Hampshire is a big example - that that guarantees anything. It doesn't."

[gettyleigh-2009]

Head Games Coming Your Way

Three things the Obama-media will do:



(1) Calls for McCain to just give up and quit, because the race is over.

(2) Wild claims of Obama winning states that shock and surprise you

(3) Repeated insistance that blacks and young people will decide this election,

and they are all going to vote in record numbers for Obama.



Brett Says:
October 31, 2008 at 3:15 am There is one concern I have about election night%u2026 if anyone remembers 2000%u2026 media outlets were calling states early for certain candidates while the polls were still open%u2026 as a result some people didn%u2019t vote. Also, it%u2019s a fact that Democrats are more likely to take the time to take part in an exit poll than a Republican%u2026 I suspect the MSM%u2026 will pump this up%u2026and may try and sway the election.

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/31/three-things-the-obamedia-will-do-to-depress-republican-turnout-and-help-obama/




Don%u2019t Count Yourself Out . . . Whatever the issue is, please don%u2019t count yourself out because you think you don%u2019t matter or because you don%u2019t think it will affect you. Your vote does matter. http://auguriesofinnocence.wordpress.com/2008/11/02/dont-count-yourself-out/

http://joeschmoepolitico.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?action=edit&post=607

[abbe91]

The only way McCain will win is through election fraud.

Posted by nmsuip at 07:18 AM : Nov 01, 2008

Yes, and look at the lines for early voting in Atlanta : 8-10 hours wait. GOP''s dirty business started already.

[grumpas]

Gee, maybe Obamma can spread some of his wealth around instead of ours..........

Anybody notice the Obamma bar has been lowered for tax increase from $250,000 a year to $100,000 a year?

Posted by hillaryin012

Yeah! I notice you didn''t mention how much McSame''s ''no new taxes'' and ''yet another useless tax cut for the rich that won''t stimulate anything'' is going to raise the deficit that is already in the stratosphere from Insane George''s ''borrowing and spending binges''! But, of coarse you neocon''s don''t like to accept responsibility for the mess this country has become under Georgie. Just blame it on Clinton!

[irmcvet97]

Gee, maybe Obamma can spread some of his wealth around instead of ours..........

Anybody notice the Obamma bar has been lowered for tax increase from $250,000 a year to $100,000 a year?

Posted by hillaryin012 at 08:02 AM : Nov 01, 2008

Isn''t it funny that the ONLY position the Right has is to distort and lie about the position of Obama! Can ANY of you tell us where McSame stands and how McSame will take this nation in a different direction? OF course you can''t because they have NO Change.. just the same Trickle Down they''ve tried for decades to make work! Now IF somehow McSame can win AND he has promised to reach across the isle to Democrats HOW in Blue Blazes does he try YET again to make the failure of Trickle Down Work? LOL

[irmcvet97]

factcheck.org shows detail copies of the certified birth certificate and has had it authenticated.
He is a US citizen - give it up.


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Posted by mkcscbs at 09:40 PM : Oct 31, 2008
+ report abuse

LOL Have YOU looked at the Record of the Republican Party? LOL He can''t give it up.. there''s no where else for him to go!

[irmcvet97]

I have often wondered what the Next Generation would look like, how they would manage. If this Young, VERY Intelligent Man is an example, I feel very confident indeed. He has had everything thrown at him that the Right can get it''s collective hands on, been called every foul name in the language and yet he stands there cool, calm and thoughtful. Anyone who isn''t impressed by this young man or the Generation he now represents, you do not care for this nation or it''s future!

[nmsuip]

The only way McCain will win is through election fraud.

[misha128-2009]

Then WHY does somebody have to sue him for the Birth Certifcate ? If it is legit -Hand it over. As the media likes to say about Palin when attacking her "It is part of VETTING politicians "



OBAMA FIGHTS LAWSUIT QUESTIONING HIS CITIZENSHIP!!

Posted by wtlib at 12:53 AM

AND THE LAWSUIT WAS THROWN OUT OF COURT!!

[freedom_2008]

The last 8 years have been an absolute nightmare. It''s time for a change. It''s time to restore the middle class. It''s time for affordable healthcare. It''s time for tax cuts for the middle class. It''s time for McFear to retire. Vote now. Vote early. Vote Obama.

[guerino4]

PAY ATTENTION EVERYBODY
go see that video at this adress
http://www.reopen911.info/video/hacking-democracy.html

This is a reporting concerning the automatic voting machine. The web site is french but the reporting is in english and please share this adress as much as you can because the biggest problem is that peoples forget. Be aware when you go to the poll.

FOR A REAL DEMOCRATY

[neederbaur]

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama''s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all..HAHAHAHAHAHA

[usvoter1]

Obama doesn''t have a birth certificate thats why he went back to Hawaii to try and obtain one, factcheck shows one thats doesn''t show one vital statics stamp from when he was born in Hawaii. Forgeries are bought. Hitler was a saleman and the U. S. beat him to peaces also. The U. S. needs a leader not a saleman. Not a fraud, someone who can tell us what we''re going to do to be here in another 4 years, not to survive for another 4 years. Its nothing to do with race, creed or color, its the person. Its morals, character and ethics. We need someone who will take down the oil comapnies. Bama ain''t it.

[solarrays247-2009]

xentpro, I couldn''''t have said it any better.
Anyone who speaked out against obama will be intimidated, investigated, smeared,and suppressed.
This is a glimpse of what you can expect in obamaland among many others nutty idealologies.
Lets hope it will never come down to that.

Posted by USA-No1 at 10:15 PM : Oct 31, 2008

I would be very surprised if Obama would do a replay of Bush''s own tactics! Remember when even to question the Iraqi war was to be threatened with being branded unpatriotic? And God forbid if we should even question Bush''s reasonings, it was to be threatened to be put on a "watch list?"

[reef133]

michaelt302:

You are a divisive I_DIOT!

Do you really think that people who watch CBS postings because they''re attached to a particular news organization will fall for this?

VOTING DAY IS TODAY ''UNTIL'' NOV4th - FOR ALL AMERICANS!

[erasmus81]

Just in case there are some stupid people out there, EVERYONE votes Nov. 4th.

[brianwbw]

change "Yes We Can" to:

"Well anything is possible but don''t hold your breath" .

you guys have been betrayed.

[brianwbw]

FOX:

Obama Lays Plans to Kill Expectations After Election Victory

Confident in an Election Day win, the campaign looks to lower supporters'' expectations on concerns their hopes of ''change'' are unrealistic, a senior aide says

Friday, 2008-31-305

By Tim Reid, The Times of London

Barack Obama''s senior advisers have drawn up plans to lower expectations for his presidency if he wins next week''s election, amid concerns that many of his euphoric supporters are harboring unrealistic hopes of what he can achieve...

...One senior adviser told The Times that the first few weeks of the transition, immediately after the election, were critical, "so there''s not a vast mood swing from exhilaration and euphoria to despair..."

...I guess this means we change "Yes We Can" to "Well anything is possible but don''t hold your breath" ??

you guys have been betrayed.

[nothappyatall]

I already voted absentee, my vote was not for the party that doubled the national debt in 7 years!

[mkcscbs]

OBAMA FIGHTS LAWSUIT QUESTIONING HIS CITIZENSHIP!!

Posted by wtlib


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

factcheck.org shows detail copies of the certified birth certificate and has had it authenticated.
He is a US citizen - give it up.

[whitemale08]

REJECT JUNKYARD DOGS RUSH LIMBAUGH AND SEAN HANNITY!!!

THEY HAVE FAILED AMERICA BY DUPING US 4 YEARS AGO TO GO FOR ANOTHER BUSH TERM!!!!

REJECT LIMBAUGH AND SEAN HANNITY, THEY ARE IDIOTS!!!