Do Polls Matter?

The Early Show: Answers May Lie In Eyes Of The Beholder -- And Margins Of Error

(CBS)  Almost all national polls show Barack Obama leading John McCain a few days before the election. But the size of the lead varies greatly from poll-to-poll, and McCain strategists insist their man is beginning to close the gap.

CBS News Senior White House Correspondent Bill Plante says McCain's chief pollster, Bill McInturff, asserts the race may be too close to call by Election Day Tuesday if McCain's numbers improve in the four key states where he's been stumping nonstop.

"John McCain has got to win Ohio and Florida, and we have to, we have to carry Virginia or Pennsylvania; hopefully, both," McInturff says.

At the moment, Plante points out, most polls have Obama ahead in the battleground states. But McCain is counting on two things.

One: undecided voters.

"I wouldn't be surprised if, at the end of the day, the more than half of the undecided voters, the moveable voters, do shift to John McCain and we see something slightly narrower than we're seeing today," observed CBS News Director of Surveys Kathleen Frankovic.

McCain is also counting on what pollsters call the "margin of error."

Take Florida, for instance, Plante suggests. The latest Associated Press poll shows Obama ahead by two points, 45 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error in that poll is four points.
That means McCain could be leading there by as much as 47-41, and could easily take the Sunshine State if he gets enough undecided voters to go his way.

Same thing in Ohio. The AP poll has Obama seven points ahead, 48-41, with a four point margin of error. That could mean a virtual tie, McCain 45, Obama 44.

So, Plante asked pollster Mark Mellman, "Is there a chance McCain could pull it out, given the poll numbers?"

"Well," Mellman responded, "there's also a chance that someone could walk up to me on the street and give me a million dollars. Neither of them is very likely."

And Plante says the margin of error, of course, works both ways and, should it work in Obama's favor in Florida or Ohio, he'd have a very big lead.

One last note: The Weekly Reader election survey of students has accurately predicted 12 out of the last 13 elections, making it one of the most reliable polls. On Wednesday, the publication released the results of its 2008 student survey. Obama got 54.7 percent of the student vote to McCain's 42.9 percent.

[antoniof123]

RCP Average 10/23 - 10/28 -- -- 52.3 42.8 Obama +9.5
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/27 - 10/28 625 LV 4.0 47 43 Obama 4
Morning Call 10/24 - 10/28 610 LV 4.0 53 42 Obama 11
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 768 LV 3.5 55 43 Obama 12
Rasmussen 10/27 - 10/27 500 LV 4.5 53 46 Obama 7
Marist 10/26 - 10/27 713 LV 4.0 55 41 Obama 14
InAdv/PollPosition 10/26 - 10/26 588 LV 3.8 51 42 Obama 9

From the looks in PA he has problems more than he thinks.

If you are behind and you want your team to win then any glimer of hope is better than none.

In this case that is what it boils down too a glimer of hope. Then it will be over, if you look at the solid Obama you will see 259 electroial votes that means just 11 are needed. With that if VA goes to Obama or NC or Florida it is over. also just 2 small states and he has a lot of states that are battle ground swinging to him.

It seems like the GOP is getting nervous now.

[drsuz]

Polls have been wrong before. I believe the media is VERY EXTREMELY biased toward Obama.
Posted by joyciej

I have noticed that too..When WAS the last time the media has reported anything positive about McCain and his background/associates compared to Obama and his background/associates?

[joyciej]

Polls have been wrong before. I believe the media is VERY EXTREMELY biased toward Obama. It is unbelieveable how much coverage he gets more than McCain. And the only thing the media says about Sarah Palin is critical. There is so much positive she has done. The election isn''t over until the last vote has been counted. Although I am a McCain supporter, if Obama wins, I will still pray for him. God is still in control, no matter what.....

[drsuz]

Do Polls Matter?? Heck no..It is just one way the news media tries to get voters to favor one candidate over the other or who the media themselves are backing with hope peole will follow like lambs and vote for their candidate.

Personally I feel all news media sources should be banned from polling places (just like candidates signs are) until the voting booths have closed.

[pdchapin]

First, there is no reason to believe undecided voters are going to go to McCain in large numbers. There''s no indication where they''re going to go, but their numbers are so low now that any reasonable division, say 3:1, isn''t going to make a big difference.

Second, while a single poll can be off by a couple of points, when you have a lot of polls, the mean on them is probably pretty close. It''s been the consistency and stability of Obama''s lead that''s impressive, more than the size.

Third, when behind at the beginning of the campaign, politicians always say that the polls don''t count that early. Later they say the race will close. If still behind near the end they attack the polling concept. The McCain campaign sounds like Dukakis''s people in 88 or Dole in 96. Didn''t work for them either.

[clovernyc]

What''s really funny is that Obama supporters actually believe all that ''blue'' state nonsense, as if the vote for him is guaranteed. People don''t always follow the lead of the press - remember when John Kerry was declared the winner?

It ain''t over till it''s over. Even Obama said "Don''t get cocky" because he knows his win is NOT guaranteed!!

[abbe91]

You know something...McCain could win Florida and Ohio and still loose the election. This election is going to be a landslide in Obama''''s favor. So if you''''re a republican right now, I guess polls don''''t matter, or at least you don''''t want them to.

Posted by hakori at 10:36 AM : Oct 30, 2008

I meant

Or you are trying to minimize their meaning to prepare for a diebold joke ...