Are The Polls Right?

Washington Post: McCain Campaign Hopes For Upset As Skeptics Challenge Accuracy Of Polling Showing Obama Way Ahead

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Michael Abramowitz.

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Could the polls be wrong?

Sen. John McCain and his allies say that they are. The country, they say, could be headed to a 2008 version of the famous 1948 upset election, with McCain in the role of Harry S. Truman and Sen. Barack Obama as Thomas E. Dewey, lulled into overconfidence by inaccurate polls.

"We believe it is a very close race, and something that is frankly very winnable," Sarah Simmons, director of strategy for the McCain campaign, said yesterday.

Few analysts outside the McCain campaign appear to share this view. And pollsters this time around will not make the mistake that the Gallup organization made 60 years ago -- ending their polling more than a week before the election and missing a last-minute surge in support for Truman. Every day brings dozens of new state and national presidential polls, a trend that is expected to continue up to Election Day.

Still, there appears to be an undercurrent of worry among some polling professionals and academics. One reason is the wide variation in Obama leads: Just yesterday, an array of polls showed the Democrat leading by as little as two points and as much as 15 points. The latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll showed the race holding steady, with Obama enjoying a lead of 52 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.

Some in the McCain camp also argue that the polls showing the largest leads for Obama mistakenly assume that turnout among young voters and African Americans will be disproportionately high. The campaign is banking on a good turnout among GOP partisans, whom McCain officials say they are working hard to attract to the polls.

"I have been wondering for weeks" whether the polls are accurately gauging the state of the race, said Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Minnesota. Borrowing from lingo popularized by former defense secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, Schier asked what are the "unknown unknowns" about polling this year: For instance, is the sizable cohort of people who don't respond to pollsters more Republican-leaning this year, perhaps because they don't want to admit to a pollster that they are not supporting the "voguish" Obama?

If so, that could mean the polls are routinely understating McCain's support. "I have no evidence that this is happening," Schier said, but he added: "I'm still thinking there's a 25 percent chance that this is a squeaker race and McCain pulls it out."

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Other experts are less uncertain. Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer at the Center for American Progress and the Century Foundation, said averaging the daily polls points to "pretty much the same thing -- that the race is pretty stable and that Obama has a stable lead. Typically, when you are this far ahead at this point, it's hard to lose."

"It is very unlikely that we are going to get surprised by a last-minute movement," said John R. Petrocik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Missouri. "Obama has been running six to eight points ahead for the better part of two weeks, and it's hard to imagine that turning around."

The McCain campaign's case that the race is closer than many polls suggest appears to rest largely on the proposition that the composition of the electorate this year will closely resemble that in 2004.

McCain pollsters do anticipate that turnout could be even higher this year than the robust turnout four years ago, but they also expect that Democratic gains among African American voters and younger voters will be offset by higher turnout among more Republican-leaning voters. They also assert the race is tightening in battleground states, with independent voters increasingly receptive to McCain.

"As other public polls begin to show Senator Obama dropping below 50% and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday," McCain pollster Bill McInturff wrote in a memo released last night by the campaign. Obama officials voiced confidence in their ultimate victory but said they have always expected the election to be close.

To buttress its point of view, the McCain team points to results reported yesterday by the Gallup organization, whose daily tracking poll showed Obama up 49 percent to 47 percent using Gallup's traditional turnout model, which assumes that turnout will follow the patterns of past elections. Obama has a larger lead, seven points, using a model that allows a higher presence of first-time voters.

A Pew Research Center poll released yesterday shows a 15-point lead for Obama, a result based on relaxed criteria for when to consider an African American respondent a likely voter, said Andrew Kohut, president of the center. He said the poll shows that roughly 12 percent of the electorate this year is black, up from 2004, with a similar increase among younger voters. Kohut defended this approach, saying there are historically high levels of interest in this contest among both demographic groups. At the same time, he added, "we've consistently shown less enthusiasm and engagement among Republicans than is typical, and the composition of the electorate shows that."

Kohut said several variables signal Obama has not convinced voters, such as a large number of respondents in the Pew poll who see the Illinois Democrat as a risky choice. But Kohut said the odds are against "a huge shift" in voter preferences by Election Day.

Some polls show Obama with a healthy lead even without an assumed surge in African American and young voters. Obama's seven-point lead in the Washington Post-ABC News poll is not premised on disproportionately higher turnout among those demographic groups. The poll's turnout model currently shows that 10 percent of likely voters are black, compared with the 11 percent who voted in 2004, according to the network exit poll. Voters younger than 30 make up 16 percent of the Post-ABC sample, little different from the 17 percent four years ago.

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Post polling director Jon Cohen said the survey designers "carefully consider a range of likely voter scenarios and use our best judgment. Our polling throughout the campaign has been on target and, we believe, helpful to understanding what is really happening. I hope it stays that way."

He noted that to address "one potential pitfall," The Post and ABC conduct interviews with a random selection of those who have only cellular phone service alongside a traditional random sample of those with residential phone service. One recent criticism of current polling has been that it does not accurately capture the sentiments of those who primarily use cellphones.

[pmaldona]

I do not believe it is irrational to assume that blacks will turn out in record numbers for this election and it is also likely that many more young people will go to the polls because they have been inspired by Obama. There is great interest in this election...turnout will be high.
Posted by sesanders1 at 01:26 PM : Oct 30, 2008
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It''s going to be the biggest turnout in history for a presidential election

[pmaldona]

All I keep hearing from the right is whining about Obama''''s not gonna do this and Obama''''s gonna do that. As a very famous AMERICAN once said, "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what YOU can do for your country!"
Posted by tegan77 at 01:27 PM : Oct 30, 2008
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BEST thing I''ve heard ALL DAY! Again I don''t think people consider that...hatred is BLIND.

[pmaldona]

Did you see where some idiot hung Sarah Palin
in effigy? If any Republican did that to an
effigy of Barack Obama, they''''d arrest them
for a hate crime. Of course, the racists who
support Barack Obama don''''t see it that way.
I can certainly see why Drew Barrymore likes
Barack Obama. If you surgically removed his
ears and legs, Barack Obama would look just
like E.T.,, on crack.
Posted by skuareoff at 01:28 PM : Oct 30, 2008

First off, in Ohio there was a man who hung an Obama ghost in a noose, so there goes the beginning of your statement...Secondly, I''m not racist in the least bit and I HATE it with a passion, so I''d respect if you took the inference away that all his supporters are racist, I''m SURE Obama has plenty of white supporters as well.

The Drew Barrymore line was kinda funny tho!

[pmaldona]

Just some more food for thought: Today ExxonMobil announced the biggest QUARTERLY profit (14.8 BILLION) in HISTORY! Mccain wants to give companies like these even MORE tax breaks because he assumes it''ll "trickle down" and create new jobs...HOW MANY NEW JOBS ARE THEY CREATING NOW? HOW IS THAT TRICKLE DOWN THING WORKING NOW?? Exxonmobil and its stockholders are certainly happy...Obama wants to take tax breaks from these companies and help the average person out. Makes a lot more sense to me than the way we''ve been doing it.

[tegan77]

All I keep hearing from the right is whining about Obama''s not gonna do this and Obama''s gonna do that. As a very famous AMERICAN once said, "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what YOU can do for your country!"

I do not believe it is irrational to assume that blacks will turn out in record numbers for this election and it is also likely that many more young people will go to the polls because they have been inspired by Obama. There is great interest in this election...turnout will be high.

[sayfud-deen]

i still can''t believe that people in the u.s can be so gullible! mccain is sick,we all know that! but i''d like to know what drug he is on that made him pick go-go boot palin as a running mate, accuse a u.s. senator of being a terrorist,socialist,ect. palin accused obama of going to a party for some m.e. guy yet , mccain and party gave the same guy a half million dollars! all of the comanders in iraq have stated time and again that the the war at this point, cannot be won militarily! yet mccain still wants to stay iraq and spend 10 billion a month! obama called for more troops to be sent to afganistan months ago! now the commanders are telling us the same thing! where is mccain in all of this? he''s talking about bin laden! the war alone has cost this country over a trillion dollars!guess where that money came from? the war has gone on for more than four years,and just like the experts told us,if the war, any war, goes on longer than four years it begins to reverse on the economy. you can''t sustain a long war and expect it to help the economy. familiar with sun tsu''s work? long wars always destroy and economy! the problem is that mccain wants you to believe that to continue on the path that we are on it''s going to solve the problem. do know that we are borrowing money fron china to fund the war? and iam still trying to figure out how obama became a u.s. senator with such a dubious background as mccain/palin suggest.













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[pmaldona]

Past elections have shown, the higher the voter turnout, the better for democrats. You shouldn''''t think people will not vote. It is going to be a huge turnout and a huge boot in the pants to the republican..
Posted by twig221 at 09:48 AM : Oct 30, 2008
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Obama in a landslide, watch he''s getting over 300 electoral votes I promise.

[pmaldona]

The only reason Obama is ahead is because he''''s promising free handouts, especially for people who pay NO TAXES. And, once the wealthy leae, the wealth redistribution will be coming from the middle class. Yes, even those making $40,000/yr.
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I don''t know anybody that''s working that doesn''t pay taxes, sorry bud. The only thing Obama "promises" is universal health care for all..you care about your health right?..Don''t you think homeless people on the streets care about their health too??...Should they not have access to decent health care like you and me? Obama has NEVER said he just wants to give money to lazy people.

[pmaldona]

He changed his tax plan 4 times in two weeks..he hasn''''t come clean about his relations with the radicals..too many to list..yadda yadda yadda
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Sorry but now i have to prove you wrong..First off, his tax plan has been the same for MONTHS! It was released the same exact time as Mccain''s, maybe you''re just too short-sighted to do some research...Relations with radicals? What about Mccain and the keating 5?? What about Mccain with the Bush administration which has *** near been a terrorist organization (killing over 1 million Iraqis)..What about Palin and her husband''s ties to the Alaskan Secessionist Party and Joe Vogler (go google!)...What''s OK for one side is not ok for the other side?? WAKE UP TOOL...As far as withholding records, why has John Mccain never released his medical records...Shot down again!..Next, his birth certificate is easily findable online...He roomed with Muslims in college?? Is there a problem being a muslim? Last I checked we lived in a free country with freedom of religion..This just shows how narrow your viewpoint is..And lastly, yes Obama did say at first he would take public funding like John Mccain but then he realized strategically that he will need more money to fend off biased attacks so he took private funding..You are LYING when you say the people of America paid $50 million for his ad last night because those funds came from HIS CAMPAIGN! You''ve been proven wrong and marginally racist and you''re views are UN-AMERICAN!

[pmaldona]

Tired of saying it - Bush andthe GOPigs overruled or vetoed everything the dems have tried to do. Also note that gas is back down to $2.25 or so. You going to credit the dems with that?
Posted by usclimey at 10:09 AM : Oct 30, 2008
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Of course not, the "right-wing" is BLIND and only views things through the slanted little prism of their reality....The democrats have been trying to change certain things and either the republicans in the senate/house will be partisan and block a measure, or Bush would veto. The gas prices dipping are not really a result of dems in congress, it''s because the economy is failing and people are driving less.

[dbaker13-2009]

under obama whats the best way to become a millionaire in the wine business?

start with 10 million!

[cruzn66]

Once again, what part of learning to compromise is being lost on the hard-core right-wingers who call themselves the "Real Americans". Continuing to polarize this nation only further pulls it apart to the point that nothing gets done, and nobody wins. And since when did we become so stupid as to believe that everything we expect of our government comes for free and so no one should have to pay taxes. Wake up folks! Complain all you want about how much you are taxed, but then take a hard look at what your government provides in services, and not just for the poor. Look at the lack of oversight we have had in food and drug safety, and tell me that we don''t need more government involvement. Tell that to the soldiers putting themselves on the line to fight a war that no one wants to pay for!! Stop whining and step up!!1 This country could be so much greater if more people would do more and complain less!!!

[usflvh]

The only reason Obama is ahead is because he''s promising free handouts, especially for people who pay NO TAXES. And, once the wealthy leae, the wealth redistribution will be coming from the middle class. Yes, even those making $40,000/yr.

Enjoy handing out checks to people on welfare, who will now make as much as you do! See, that''s the beauty of socialism, everybody is equally as poor and equally as miserable, and the absence of a middle class makes the country very easy to control.

And enjoy being penalized for not being a part of his national health care. As a medical student, I can say, many will be reconsidering their career path. So enjoy sub par care.

So enjoy the extra $100/mo that you will save for the first few months Obama is in office, because soon after, the middle class will be equal with those who don''t work.

[usclimey]

It should also be noted that this "situation" didn''''t develop until after Pelosi and the other Democrats started *** things up in the House two years ago. Before the Democrats took over the House, gasoline was $2.17 a gallon...not great, but not terrible, either.

Posted by WRMSCVSUV

Tired of saying it - Bush andthe GOPigs overruled or vetoed everything the dems have tried to do. Also note that gas is back down to $2.25 or so. You going to credit the dems with that?

[usclimey]

Posted by Anniesez5

You''re unhinged.

[twig221]

Past elections have shown, the higher the voter turnout, the better for democrats. You shouldn''t think people will not vote. It is going to be a huge turnout and a huge boot in the pants to the republican..

[anniesez5]

Sorry for the typo''s in previous post..I guess all this has me so excited..it should read:
Of course the polls are wrong..The media is wrong for it''s censorship too..People can''t you see what''s going on here? Money is being used to sway voters..Be it big money or as simple as a dollar or cigarette...No one can pay me to change me voting for the person best to run my country..McCain /Palin

[anniesez5]

Of course the polls are wrong..The media is wrong for it''s censorship too..People can''t you see what''s going on here? Money is being used to sway voters..Be it big money or as simple as a dollar or cigarette...No one poay me to change kme voting for the person best to run my country..McCain /Palin

[anniesez5]

Barack Obama is the ONLY potential president elect I have lived through that has been caught lying so Excessively during a campaign..Sure some flub here and there.Some are well wishers and cannot come through with their plans as reality hits them..But this man Barack is caught in waves of lies each and every day and you will cast that vote for him in place of your children''s and granchildren''s future? He is a radical in an empty suit..Is he to be a PRESIDENT of the most powerful country in the world ? He changed his tax plan 4 times in two weeks..he hasn''t come clean about his relations with the radicals..too many to list..has hidden all he papers who would give you a hint who he truly is..like college records , long form Birth certifcate etc. He roomed with Muslims in college.the list goes on and on. You choose this man over a man who has served 25 plus years in the service for your INDEPENDENCE and many years in the Senate ? Barack also said he wouldn''t use peoples money to run his campaign,,He stole millions near billions from all of you to do this..He spends money like water..His infomercial cost the public over 50 MILLION dollars. Grand Finale the LA Times has a movie soo dispicable they will not release it showing the actions of Barack Obama at a sending off patry for the PLO leader..Could you sit is a church 20 years with the hate being spewed out if god is in your heart like he did with his children? Read between lines before you vote..