Are The Polls Right?

Washington Post: McCain Campaign Hopes For Upset As Skeptics Challenge Accuracy Of Polling Showing Obama Way Ahead

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Michael Abramowitz.

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Could the polls be wrong?

Sen. John McCain and his allies say that they are. The country, they say, could be headed to a 2008 version of the famous 1948 upset election, with McCain in the role of Harry S. Truman and Sen. Barack Obama as Thomas E. Dewey, lulled into overconfidence by inaccurate polls.

"We believe it is a very close race, and something that is frankly very winnable," Sarah Simmons, director of strategy for the McCain campaign, said yesterday.

Few analysts outside the McCain campaign appear to share this view. And pollsters this time around will not make the mistake that the Gallup organization made 60 years ago -- ending their polling more than a week before the election and missing a last-minute surge in support for Truman. Every day brings dozens of new state and national presidential polls, a trend that is expected to continue up to Election Day.

Still, there appears to be an undercurrent of worry among some polling professionals and academics. One reason is the wide variation in Obama leads: Just yesterday, an array of polls showed the Democrat leading by as little as two points and as much as 15 points. The latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll showed the race holding steady, with Obama enjoying a lead of 52 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.

Some in the McCain camp also argue that the polls showing the largest leads for Obama mistakenly assume that turnout among young voters and African Americans will be disproportionately high. The campaign is banking on a good turnout among GOP partisans, whom McCain officials say they are working hard to attract to the polls.

"I have been wondering for weeks" whether the polls are accurately gauging the state of the race, said Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Minnesota. Borrowing from lingo popularized by former defense secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, Schier asked what are the "unknown unknowns" about polling this year: For instance, is the sizable cohort of people who don't respond to pollsters more Republican-leaning this year, perhaps because they don't want to admit to a pollster that they are not supporting the "voguish" Obama?

If so, that could mean the polls are routinely understating McCain's support. "I have no evidence that this is happening," Schier said, but he added: "I'm still thinking there's a 25 percent chance that this is a squeaker race and McCain pulls it out."

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Other experts are less uncertain. Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer at the Center for American Progress and the Century Foundation, said averaging the daily polls points to "pretty much the same thing -- that the race is pretty stable and that Obama has a stable lead. Typically, when you are this far ahead at this point, it's hard to lose."

"It is very unlikely that we are going to get surprised by a last-minute movement," said John R. Petrocik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Missouri. "Obama has been running six to eight points ahead for the better part of two weeks, and it's hard to imagine that turning around."

The McCain campaign's case that the race is closer than many polls suggest appears to rest largely on the proposition that the composition of the electorate this year will closely resemble that in 2004.

McCain pollsters do anticipate that turnout could be even higher this year than the robust turnout four years ago, but they also expect that Democratic gains among African American voters and younger voters will be offset by higher turnout among more Republican-leaning voters. They also assert the race is tightening in battleground states, with independent voters increasingly receptive to McCain.

"As other public polls begin to show Senator Obama dropping below 50% and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday," McCain pollster Bill McInturff wrote in a memo released last night by the campaign. Obama officials voiced confidence in their ultimate victory but said they have always expected the election to be close.

To buttress its point of view, the McCain team points to results reported yesterday by the Gallup organization, whose daily tracking poll showed Obama up 49 percent to 47 percent using Gallup's traditional turnout model, which assumes that turnout will follow the patterns of past elections. Obama has a larger lead, seven points, using a model that allows a higher presence of first-time voters.

A Pew Research Center poll released yesterday shows a 15-point lead for Obama, a result based on relaxed criteria for when to consider an African American respondent a likely voter, said Andrew Kohut, president of the center. He said the poll shows that roughly 12 percent of the electorate this year is black, up from 2004, with a similar increase among younger voters. Kohut defended this approach, saying there are historically high levels of interest in this contest among both demographic groups. At the same time, he added, "we've consistently shown less enthusiasm and engagement among Republicans than is typical, and the composition of the electorate shows that."

Kohut said several variables signal Obama has not convinced voters, such as a large number of respondents in the Pew poll who see the Illinois Democrat as a risky choice. But Kohut said the odds are against "a huge shift" in voter preferences by Election Day.

Some polls show Obama with a healthy lead even without an assumed surge in African American and young voters. Obama's seven-point lead in the Washington Post-ABC News poll is not premised on disproportionately higher turnout among those demographic groups. The poll's turnout model currently shows that 10 percent of likely voters are black, compared with the 11 percent who voted in 2004, according to the network exit poll. Voters younger than 30 make up 16 percent of the Post-ABC sample, little different from the 17 percent four years ago.

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Post polling director Jon Cohen said the survey designers "carefully consider a range of likely voter scenarios and use our best judgment. Our polling throughout the campaign has been on target and, we believe, helpful to understanding what is really happening. I hope it stays that way."

He noted that to address "one potential pitfall," The Post and ABC conduct interviews with a random selection of those who have only cellular phone service alongside a traditional random sample of those with residential phone service. One recent criticism of current polling has been that it does not accurately capture the sentiments of those who primarily use cellphones.

[antoniof123]

Well then I guess after the polls close on Tuesday we will know how the swing voters decided.

McCain hopes they choose him and Obama hopes they choose him.

Any way you look at it the swing voters will choose who they want not the other way around.

[silverstar06]

Democrats? Democracy?? Why are these folks so aggressively fighting for absolute govenment control? House, senate AND presidency? It appears that the covert left is determinded to occupy every possible executive and legislative aspect of this country. Really, communism is not that great. Ask Russia.

[repforbarack]

What else is the losing mcsame campaign going to say?

They''re saving face...

[repforbarack]

Once Virginia gets called for Obama...this election is over.

[kristin1228]

Let me guess, these skeptics that dont believe the polls are republicans?? Good grief, its like watching a train wreck watching these republicans grasp and anything and everything. You''ve lost, you played a dirty game and people say right through it. Maybe in four years after you figure out how to run a decent campaign you might have a shot. Go Obama!!

[rudy654-2009]

Posted by olivia4441 at 10:02 AM

I would have told you to never return to the restaurant again. Redneck piece of trash.

[rudy654-2009]

Let me guess, these skeptics that dont believe the polls are republicans?? Good grief, its like watching a train wreck watching these republicans grasp and anything and everything. You''''ve lost, you played a dirty game and people say right through it. Maybe in four years after you figure out how to run a decent campaign you might have a shot. Go Obama!!


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Posted by kristin1228 at 10:01 AM

Exactly. When the polls were in their favor they were singing a completely different tune.

[notmudrose1]

Are the polls correct? You betcha!
Obama in a landslie.

Then, with all the extra campaign money left over we''re going to round up all the mcinsane supporters and toss them in the middle of the ocean for the sharks.

[rudy654-2009]

Posted by olivia4441
I guess redistribution of wealth is an easier thing to swallow in concept than in practical application.

Posted as a true red plagerizing McCain Nazi, same post flying around the internet by other members of McCains Nazis, just different names. Which Southern Fascist State you in Nazi?


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Posted by ConDumbistan at 10:07 AM

I should have guessed it was a tactic. Yesterday, Limbaugh was telling parents how to make children mad at Obama by taking away their Halloween candy. Is it any wonder that from these slime come characters like on the front page that are proud neo-nazis?

[mikeant50]

Most Polls only account for traditional voters, middle age and old whites. They tend to discount minorities and youth votes, becuase they don''t think that we will turn out to vote. They need to look at early voting. African Americans are turning out in record numbers and young voters are energized. I believe polls are undercounting these two groups.

[petro49l]

Hurricane Katrina is an issue. FEMA bungled the evacuation and clean-up of the catastrophe. How will the Department of Homeland Security handle the next weather emergency? Former FEMA Director Mike Brown could had been indicted for criminal incompetence. Former PA EMA Director Adrian King should had been ordered into psychiatric treatment. John McCain and Barack Obama must seriously think about disaster situations.

[repforbarack]

Obama leads McCain in 6 of 8 swing states!

[repforbarack]

Sharks would reject jamesm12341...poison sample :)

[msimamaji]

One unknown is how many eligible voters will be turned away from the polls because they are black or Latino. The Republicans have devised a wide array of dirty tricks to rig the elecdtions. For example, in Colorado, the Secretary of State, is purging eligible Democratic voters from the polls because he''s running for Congress. For more information, check out the Huffington Post. In the meantime, I plan to spend a lot of time volunteering for Obama. No one who supports Obama should take the current polls seriously. The race is not over yet.

[heartlandjim]

The polls are right because we in America want a bright and optomistic outlook for the future!! Obama does that with his steady hand and great ideas. McSame would give us the old Bush team, look at his campaign team, and the old if we just give enough money to the rich everything will be OK. No, no, no!!! Not this time!!!

[grouchyjohn]

your life will not change one bit if obama is president

Posted by jamesm12341 at 10:16 AM : Oct 29, 2008





This just proves that little jimmy has NO CLUE as to what he''s talking about.

He thinks that nothing will be different from our current mess, or a McCain or Obama presidency.

What a silly child!!

[repforbarack]

Obama leads McCain in 6 of 8 swing states!


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Posted by RepForBarack at 10:14 AM : Oct 29, 2008


your life will not change one bit if obama is president
Posted by jamesm12341


Sure it will...I won''t have to pray to God to help bring our troops home everynight. My friend''s families can be together again without the fear of having a member dying in an unjust/senseless war. Our economy can begin to recover. When I travel other countries will begin to respect the US again...it will take time though after what lil''bush has done to us.

[yeswecan09]

I personally think one of the reasons the polls are showing such a wide range of values is because some of the polls take into consideration cell phone numbers while others only take into consideration land lines.

I truly think Obama is going to win in a Reagan-ish landslide.

But then again I have terrible luck picking the winning president

[repforbarack]

YES WE CAN!

[mikeant50]

The only poll that I''m concerned with is the one that will be conducted on 4 Nov. All this others will not matter, they will just be talking points.

[lordmi]

when he could not win, he says - polls are wrong.
So, next step he will make - voters were wrong on November 4st.

Old Idiot along with Stupid PitBull and phont Joe-Plumber - team of Degradation.

[notmudrose1]

President Obama will have 8 years to appoint new members to the US Supreme Court and he''ll get to replace Scalia when he Scalia drops dead while blowing a gasket in anger management class.

[mikeant50]

Rasmussen has Obama +3 over McCain

Gallup has Obama 49% and McCain at 47%

ALL BAD NEWS for Barack Obama, Democratic candidates normally lose to Republicans if under 5%.
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I see you picked the polls that had you candidate closing. Amongst registered voters, gallup gives Obama a 7 point lead.

[notmudrose1]

Not only are the polls correct and Obama is the winner with Virginia but he''ll pick up Ohio, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina too.

[mindlessmissy]

Ha Ha ... The McCain camp is already trying to spin the results of the elections in lieu of their plan to STEAL the elections ...

Well, It''s NOT going to happen this year ...

Exit polls will show a wide Obama gap that will cause Alarm Bells to ring if for any reason McCain wins a state where Obama supposedly won ...

[repforbarack]

"Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama with an 87.0% chance of winning in November"

[hschwarz2]

to olivia4441: Hey why not give the $20 to your boss, and then see if you''ll ever get it back?Then you''ll really be following the McCain supply side philosophy:
redistribution and welfare to corporations. Tell me again just how many jobs have been created in the past 8 years by giving huge tax breaks to corporations?

[notmudrose1]

Time for the mcinsane folks, which are dwindling by the hundreds of thousands each day, to bite the cyanide bullet.

[notmudrose1]

The first person we''re coming after on november 5th is gop-will-win, alias gophockeymom, etc.

Time for a change ms. gopwillwin

[repforbarack]

Once Virginia gets called for Obama...this election is over.

[repforbarack]

McCain = Parsley, Hagee, Stevens, Craig, Bush, Cheney, Abramoff, Keating, etc

[brucie2006]

Advantage Obama, but the real numbers will be analyzed when the voting polls are closed. I''m hoping for a Democratic sweep. It''s time to get some legislative work done.

[FHMullane]

I agree that Polls are not to be trusted. Particularly this year. Everyone should go and vote and assume absolutely nothing!!!

I just hope FL can get it right and there is no crooked *** going on. The rumors are flying.

Vote... vote for Obama if you want to see this country have the prestige it once had and deserves. Vote for Obama if you want to see the economy improve. McCain''s trickle down ideas have not worked under Bush so why do we think they will work under McCain.

Finally Bush seems to get the fact that he messed up the economy and he seems willing to compromise and work with everyone to fix it (and his legacy). I rather see him than McCain... McCain is so scaary.

Vote for Obama and sleep at night.

[grouchyjohn]

once a loser always a loser....you will wake up a year from now...realize you are still a loser in life....get mad at yourself...change your nick on here and start bashing obama , blaming him for your poor choices in life

Posted by jamesm12341 at 10:21 AM : Oct 29, 2008




What poor choices would those be?

[jumkey]

What they''re taking about is fraud from the Republicans.

They''re acknowledging that they will try to steal the election if they can, but their methods (intimidation, suppression) only work if the vote is close.

They''re hedging their bets.

[brucie2006]

scb1111_1 at 10:31 AM

No. I was a Clinton supporter, and so were many others I know, we all support Obama. 8 years of Bush and republicon corruption equals McShame. Palin is an idiot, and grossly unqualified even for a Governors job. When asked by a 5th grader, the vice presidential role, again, for the second time Palin got it wrong...pathetic.

[brucie2006]

scb1111_1
If Virginia goes to John McCain along with Florida, it is all over for Barack Obama, because Pennsylvania and Ohio will go to John McCain...remembe all those RACISTS "redneck" white Democratic voters crossing over and voting for John McCain.

Actually, Obama is ahead in the Virgina, Pennsylvania and Ohio polls. Those dumb rednecks, like the one that married Ho Bristol Palin..are still learning how to read -

[notmudrose1]

I''m voting for Obama because of his experience, character, judgment, integrity, intelligence, conscience, patience, knowledge, focus, and, last but not least, mcinsane and sarah "wack job diva" palin have none of the above.

Also, I like President Obama''s willingness to tax people that net over $250,000 3% more than they are paying now.

Also, I like the fact the President Obama will have no pre-conditions when telling our adversarys what he will do to them.

Also, I like the fact that President Obama will put democrats on the US Supreme Court during the next 8 years.

[abbe91]

"Advantage Obama, but the real numbers will be analyzed when the voting polls are closed. I''''m hoping for a Democratic sweep. It''''s time to get some legislative work done.
Posted by Brucie2006 at 10:36 AM : Oct 29, 2008"

Pay attention to the exit polls. Otherwise, it''s all about Diebold.

[notmudrose1]

One last point, I like the fact that all the anti-american nazis on this site that hate President Obama will have to salute him for the next 8 years.

[lochlan-2009]

Polls are used by the media and politicians to manipulate people into thinking a certain way, or believing something is what it isn''t. For example, if you were a McCain supporter and the polls came out and said Obama was ahead of McCain by 30 points, how many of you would fight tooth and nail for a candidate you pretty much can guarantee is going to lose. American''s like to bet on the winning horse, and they will only watch an event, and get rauled up over it, if they think it can go either way. If it''s 47 to 3 in the 4th quarter with several minutes left, most televisions go off, or people go in the other room to cook dinner, or etc.. If it''s 36 to 34 with a minute or two left to the game and the underdog has the ball, people are sitting on the edge of their seat telling anyone who enters the room, to shut-up and get out of the way. Now look at how the media make their money; advertising. Do you want a landslide victory where no one pays attention to your advertisers (meaning they aren''t going to pay you as much) or do you want them on the edge of their seat, where the ad $$$ is through the roof?
If you''re a politician, does reassuring Grandma Jane there are others who are supporting the candidate she wants (whether they are or not), help her not have to second guess herself on why the rest of the world is voting against her candidate.

Polls are a fraud, used to manipulate people into a profitable outcome for whom ever is controling the poll.

[ecs1749-2009]

"...grossly unqualified even for a senator..."

I agree. Mr. Obama should have spent more time showing us he ACTUALLY would do anything besides voting PRESENT.

[repforbarack]

One last point, I like the fact that all the anti-american nazis on this site that hate President Obama will have to salute him for the next 8 years.
Posted by notmudrose1


The death of the neocons is something the world can celebrate :)

[notmudrose1]

Hello repforbarack, have you sen jh3679 lately?

[melfree2001]

This seems to me like a silly article. Its the same polling process we used in the primaries during the spring. Why suddenly would that process be flawed since the Republican Candidate is loosing? If the results of the primaries were 95% on target, why would you expect different results in the general election. It sounds like the McCain camp is trying to boost its supporters, knowing they have lost this election badly.

[walt1944-2009]

It has been discovered that the McBush campaign is expecting (and hoping) that the election will end up being another "2000" which will have to be decided by the Supreme Court, which since it is made up mostly of neocon Fascist Nazis anyway, would decide in favor of McBush, as they decided in favor of Bush in 2000, even though the people really wanted Al Gore!

But who listens to what the people want anyway??

McBush is arguing that all the polls showing him more than 1 point behind are wrong, that the election is much closer than it is and that he expects John Wayne to be leading the US Cavalry over the ridge in rescue of his campaign on November 5.

McBush also believed:

1) "The fundamentals of the economy are strong!". Yeah, right!!!
2) "I supported George Bush over 90% of the time!". And look where it got us!!!
3) "I picked her because she (Palin) is a "maverick" just like me!". So much a "maverick" she is stabbing him in the back!!!
4) "I''m suspending my campaign immediately to go back to Washington and fix the economy!". Just as soon as I dump Letterman and have my interview with Katie Couric!!

Next, McBush will announce he believes in the Great Pumpkin, the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus, and the Tooth Fairy!

SIG HEIL, I BELIEVE IN SANTA CLAUS; NORAD TRACKS HIM EVERY CHRISTMAS EVE!!!, BUSH!!
sig heil, YOU MEAN THERE REALLY ISN''T A TOOTH FAIRY???, McBush!!!
sig heil, I THINK SANTA CLAUS IS A SOCIALIST BECAUSE HE SPREADS THE TOYS AROUND!!!, Palin!!!!

[brucie2006]

"Advantage Obama, but the real numbers will be analyzed when the voting polls are closed. I''''''''m hoping for a Democratic sweep. It''''''''s time to get some legislative work done.
Posted by Brucie2006 at 10:36 AM : Oct 29, 2008"

abbe91
Pay attention to the exit polls. Otherwise, it''''s all about Diebold.

Especially for fraud. I heard most votes abroad in Iraq will not be counted, because most won''t make the deadline. If they broke into Palin''s email..Diebold, made in Venezuela is child''s play.

[tawabill]

Posted by KristianInAL

Mentored by COMMUNISTS; Socializes with DOMESTIC TERRORISTS; Sat in a pew for over 20 years listening to a RACIST.

OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT?
--------------------------------

Confessed to Communists, good buddies with advocate of domestic terrorism (Liddy), consorts with felons (Liddy, Keating), supports socialist programs of current administration. Selected running mate whose husband has ties to separatist group advocating armed Alaskan seccession.

McCain for President? You''ve got to be kidding.

[grouchyjohn]

the choices you made in life that put you in position to depend on the government

Posted by jamesm12341 at 10:40 AM : Oct 29, 2008




I don''t depend on the government.

So tell me - what "poor choices" have I made?

[dredigga]

I think the polls are correct (at least I hope they are). But one thing I know for sure that it will take way more than the nutty rightwing extremest to take McCain/Palin to the WH. I remember looking at the conventions and at the DEM convention, I saw people from all ethnic groups there and at the GOP convention all I saw was elderly white people. I thought then, this doesn''t look so good. From what I can gauge, there are many young whites, a big majority of hispanics, and 98% of blacks all pulling for Obama. When one connects the dots, it smells like a landslide for the DEMs.