McCain Forced To Gamble On Pennsylvania

CBSNews.com Reports: Facing Likely Red State Losses, Republican Reaches For Long-Shot Victory In Blue-Leaning Battleground

(CBS)  This story was written by CBSNews.com political reporter Brian Montopoli.

---

With Election Day less than a week away, even optimistic Republicans recognize that John McCain needs a lot to break his way to have a chance to "fool the pundits," as the GOP nominee said Tuesday, and secure an upset victory over Barack Obama in the presidential race.

If McCain wins all the states that President George W. Bush won four years ago, he'll have the 270-plus electoral votes necessary to take the White House. (Mr. Bush won 286 electoral votes.) But with polls showing the Arizona senator trailing Obama, in some cases by significant margins, in at least six states that went red in 2004 - Colorado, Ohio, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, and Virginia - such a scenario appears extremely unlikely.

Even if McCain can hold Obama off in Florida and North Carolina, two 2004 red states where polls suggest a tight race, the likelihood of losses in other 2004 red states has forced the McCain campaign to look to states that went blue four years ago.

They don't have many options. There are, polls suggest, only two states where a shift from blue to red seems within the realm of possibility. One is New Hampshire, where McCain is well liked and where some polls this month have shown the race in the single digits. (Others have shown a wide Obama advantage.) Even if McCain takes the state, however, he'll secure just four electoral votes - hardly enough to offset substantial gains by Obama in red states.

The other blue state where McCain may have a chance is Pennsylvania, and that is where the McCain camp appears to have placed its bets. The Keystone State offers 21 electoral votes - enough to make up for losses in, for example, Virginia and Colorado - and it almost went red in 2004, with Democrat John Kerry taking the state by just 2.5 percentage points.

In addition, Obama did not fare well in Pennsylvania during the primaries. The Illinois senator lost to Hillary Clinton by 10 percentage points, in part because the state's working-class white voters did not warm to him.

"McCain really has no choice but to give Pennsylvania a lot of attention, because it is the only fairly large state that Kerry won where McCain has any real chance of winning," University of Pennsylvania political science professor Rogers M. Smith said. "And there is no path to 270 electoral votes in which he fails to take any Kerry states, because Obama is leading in some of the Bush states pretty decisively."

"If you can't win all the Bush states, you can make up a lot of ground in Pennsylvania," said former Bush strategist and CBS News consultant Dan Bartlett. "Instead of trying to play really close matches in a bunch of states, you play one match in a really big state."

McCain's message in recent days - that Obama has socialist leanings and will raise taxes on hardworking Joe The Plumber types - seems tailor made to win over skeptical blue-collar voters in the more rural south central and northeastern parts of the state. "If it's going to play anywhere, it would hopefully play there," Bartlett said.

McCain and running mate Sarah Palin both campaigned in Pennsylvania this week, and Palin has made 11 trips to the state as a vice presidential candidate, more than any other battleground. The Alaska governor in particular has pushed the message that the GOP ticket shares these voters' values, while Obama does not.

Unfortunately for Republicans, the effort does not appear to have had much impact. A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday showed Obama with a 12 point lead in Pennsylvania, as did Associated Press-GfK and Muhlenberg College surveys. (One glimmer of hope: A poll out Thursday that showed the margin at just four percentage points.) Closing a double-digit deficit with less than a week before the election is a daunting task - so daunting, in fact, that some have suggested McCain is wasting his resources in the state. The last time Pennsylvania voters supported a Republican presidential candidate was 1988.

---

Ways To Win
Calculate your own path to the presidency with our Electoral Vote prediction map.

---

"There is absolutely no question who will win this state," said Gettysburg College political science professor Shirley Anne Warshaw, who predicts an Obama victory. "This is a blue state. There are a million more registered Democrats in Pennsylvania than Republicans, and the new registrants were overwhelmingly Democratic."

While the Obama campaign anticipates a victory in the state, it is not quite so confident, which is why Obama campaigned near Philadelphia this past Tuesday in an effort to drive up turnout in a part of the state where he leads by a wide margin.

"Forty percent of the state's voters live within the reach of the Philadelphia television market," said G. Terry Madonna, political science professor at Franklin and Marshall College. "If you win 60 percent where 40 percent live, you don't need to do much elsewhere."

Madonna's Pennsylvania polling shows Obama leading by double digits statewide. He found the Democrat even leads McCain in the central part of the state, traditionally a Republican stronghold.

Mike Barley, communications director for the Pennsylvania Republican Party, said he nonetheless remains optimistic that McCain can win the state.

"We think that our numbers are a lot better than those polls reflect," he said, arguing that the state's socially conservative Democrats will ultimately help push McCain over the top. He also suggested that strong Republican get-out-the-vote efforts will help McCain.

Smith, the University of Pennsylvania professor, offered a measure of hope to Republicans, suggesting Pennsylvania could indeed be closer than public polls suggest.

"Turnout may end up favoring Republicans more than the polls are indicating - a lot of Obama voters are young voters and inner city voters that traditionally don't have such high turnout rates," he said. "McCain voters are a surer bet to turn out based on past turnout patterns."

Still, Smith said, "If I had to bet, I'd bet that Obama will carry Pennsylvania."

Battleground State Page: Keep up the with the campaign in Pennsylvania with latest news from CBS and around the Web.

[bigsk8fan]

let mccain spin his wheels just like he spins bush ideas over and over again. hope over fear. change is coming. 1/20/09 end of an error.

[sly_64]

Newflash, November 5th 2008

McCain Wins by 1 Vote !!!

- Obama Reportedly ''Not Mad, Just Disappointed''

- U.S Prepares To Invade Russia, China, Iran, Spain, Canada

- Cheney Tapped To Lead New Dept. of Ongoing Illegal Activities

- McCain Upset He Doesn''t Get Launch Codes Until January

- Bush: ''I Am Vindicated''

- Gore: ''For The Love Of God Did You People Learn Nothing?''

[gop_will_win]

Here in Altoona, all I see is McCain signs. Everyone at my church is for McCain. Is it only the good church going people that are voting for him while the scummy people chose Obama?

[sly_64]

Here in Miami, all I see is Obama signs. Everyone in South Florida is for Obama. Is it only the good people that are voting for him while the stupid people chose McCain?

[pjc27]

I live in the "Bible belt" of PA. Even in ultra conservative areas Obama has a huge base. These are people who prob never voted Dem in their lives. There are McCain signs, but not like there were Bush signs 4 or 8 years ago.
The Obama offices (we have one in almost every town) are out of almost everything but buttons. They cannot keep their stuff stocked. Pleanty of stuuf available at the McCain "Victory" offices, though.
I don''t think they''ll gain more than they already have in PA, their base of racist wackjobs.

[pjc27]

"Is it only the good church going people that are voting for him while the scummy people chose Obama?"

Well not only does that comment spew the love of Jesus, it goes to show who has tha base scum.
Watching these folks at McPalin rallies here in PA makes me so ashamed -those people are not the Pennsylvanias I know. All N word, hate, racism, mean, nasty, and yep, a lot of em Christian.
But all the truely good Christians are voting for Obama. As are we Jews :-)

[gop_will_win]

Yes you are correct, it is only Far Right Wing Christian Nut Job Snake Wigglers who are voting for McCain/Bible Spice


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by johndevinejr
========================
We must pray to God on election day to stop the liberals from casting votes.

[gop_will_win]

Is your one leg still longer than the other one from walking on the side of the hill?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by rharrin1
=====================
My legs are covered by my skirt. Not even my bare ankle shows on this good christian woman. The Lord hates bare skin to show.

[notbuynit]

Grandpa is TOAST!

[sly_64]

Just remember gop_will_Win does not beleive a word he/she/it is saying. They''re just here to rile people up. Don''t take them seriously.

[trutharrows]

With NObama promising all this free government cheese as payment for our votes, reckon why there are still so many of us real Americans unwilling to sell to him??

How much free government cheese did it take you neo-Marxist hyphenated-American NObama worshippers to sell your votes??


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by Obama_Dkhed at 08:51 AM : Oct 30, 2008
+ report abuse

What''s a "real American" look like?

[bigsk8fan]

neocons are already displaying their sour grapes. don''t worry. change is coming. hope over fear. courtesy president barack obama.

[trutharrows]

Exxon Mobil Corp., the world''s largest publicly traded oil company, reported income Thursday that shattered its own record for the biggest profit from operations by a U.S. corporation, earning $14.83 billion in the third quarter.

Hey! That''s great news for all you Joe the Plumber fans!

[grumpas]

Just remember gop_will_Win does not beleive a word he/she/it is saying. They''''re just here to rile people up. Don''''t take them seriously.

Posted by sly_64

I''m not! What do you say to a person who is so far gone that rattle on and on and don''t make any sense????

[jng123-2009]

Mmmm Mmmm Good ! I love government cheese !

Tastes so much better than the dirt sandwiches Bush and McCain have had us eating for the last eight years !
Posted by tru_america1 at 09:07 AM : Oct 30, 2008



LOL!!

[penigma82]

neo-Marxist hyphenated-American Demoturds

That phrase makes little sense. What is a hyphenated American? Or are you simply suggesting that anyone who supports Obama, secretly is an African-American or maybe a Latino-American? Is that it?

Talk about your wonton racist.

Here''s the thing, if progressive tax structures are Marxist (which is horsebulloney), what then is concentrating wealth in the hands of a few while destroying US jobs?

The answer - Obama_head is feudalism. You and your kind are so beholden to the rich that you actually want to just turn the country over to them - good move there, it''s worked out very well so far.

[sly_64]

the anthem itself conveys a war-like message. You know, the bombs bursting in air and all. It should be swapped for something less parochial and less bellicose

I agree completely with this statement. America the Beautiful is a much better song, and much easier to sing. the message of our national anthem is violent and outdated.

[gop_will_win]

Just remember gop_will_Win does not beleive a word he/she/it is saying. They''''re just here to rile people up. Don''''t take them seriously.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by sly_64
==================
You envy my talent. You wish you were on my level dont you?

Seems McCain gave half a million to KHALIDI 10 years ago. Seems McCain and his supporters should let this one drop.

[jjp735i]

I don''t think the people of Pennsylvania are really that stupid and vote for McCain. Pennsylvania is blue state and will remain that way. After, despite the Republican remarks that Pennsylvania is another Alabama, it''s not and never will be.

[antoniof123]

HISTORY TOUGHT US THAT BOTH HITLER AND COMMUNISTS CAME TO POWER ON THE PLATFORM OF CHANGE, DURING THE TIMES OF ECONOMIC UPHEAVAL. IF YOU LET HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF, AMERICA WILL BE LOST FOREVER.
Posted by DemocracyWin at 09:08 AM : Oct 30, 2008

It was said before early in our histroy and it goes like this:

The United States will not fall by the might of the sword but by a man carring the constitution in one hand and the bible in the other.

Sound familar, kind of like the religious nut cases supporting making the constitution more in line with the bible.

[mytoosense]

Joe the Plumber is not the real hero of the Republican Party

The real GOP Heros are:

Joe the No Bid Contract Contractor
Joe the Job Outsourcer
Joe the John Toe Tapper
Joe, the Knee Jerk Evangelical
Joe, Jack Abramoff%u2019s Bro
Joe the Well Parachuted CEO

Did I miss any?

[sly_64]

Posted by gop_will_win

Bad Christian !! Now go in your spot and stay there until I say so !

[walt1944-2009]

John McBush McCain is still hoping that he will stage an upset (somehow!) and that all the "battleground" states will remain faithful to the Republicans this election. This despite polls that show that nearly EVERY "battleground" state will be turning BLUE on November 4.

While still trying to believe that a miracle will happen and that John Wayne will ride over the ridge with the US Cavalry to rescue the McBush wagon train, McBush has begun making preparations for retirement to some state that will still be RED after November 4.

Right now, it even appears that his home state of Arizona will go BLUE which upsets McBush no end. This means he may have to sell his mansion in Tempe and move to an "American Red" state!

SIG HEIL, TEXAS IS STILL RED, I THINK!!!, BUSH!!!!
sig heil, I''VE GOT THEM RIGHT WHERE THEY WANT ME!!!, McBush!!!
sig heil, I DON''T WANT TO GO BACK TO ALASKA!!!, Palin!!!

[windmaster12]

Country First?
Vietnam Vets against Traitor Mccain!!!

According to documentation obtained by the U.S. Veteran Dispatch, not only did POW McCain promise to give the communists "military information" in exchange for special hospital care not ordinarily available to U.S. prisoners, but he also made numerous antiwar radio broadcasts.

This is a violation of the Military Code of Conduct and is considered collaborating with the enemy.

The following is McCain''s own admission of collaboration in an article he wrote, printed May 14, 1973 in U.S. News and World Report:

"I think it was on the fourth day [after being shot down] that two guards came in, instead of one. One of them pulled back the blanket to show the other guard my injury. I looked at my knee. It was about the size, shape and color of a football. I remembered that when I was a flying instructor a fellow had ejected from his plane and broken his thigh. He had gone into shock, the blood had pooled in his leg, and he died, which came as quite a surprise to usa man dying of a broken leg.

Then I realized that a very similar thing was happening to me.

"When I saw it, I said to the guard, `O.K., get the officer.''

"An officer came in after a few minutes. It was the man that we came to know very well as `The Bug.'' He was a psychotic torturer, one of the worst fiends that we had to deal with. I said, `O.K., I''ll give you military information if you will take me to the hospital.''"

GOOGLE:

MCCAIN COLLABORATOR

[augustman195]

Let''s see, McCain/Palin pandered to the "let''s distroy
Obama and his message of change, no wait!, let''s adopt it!" I''m confused to this end, If Barack has no vision and is a threat to the country (by promising change)and some idiot is making a moronic attempt to compare him to Hitler, (poor b------)why did McKook/Pal150G pick up on it? Must be a Hitler mavericky, thingy too....

What a brilliant stragedy by McBush. Instead of talking about the failed Iraq War talk about an unlicensed plumber who has bad credit. No wonder Obama is going to landslide him.

[aboz3]

McCain still wants corporate tax cuts!!!

HOUSTON - Exxon Mobil Corp., the world%u2019s largest publicly traded oil company, said Thursday it shattered its own record for the biggest profit from operations by a U.S. corporation, earning $14.83 billion in the third quarter.

Joe the Plumber is not the real hero of the Republican Party

The real GOP Heros are:

Joe the No Bid Contract Contractor
Joe the Job Outsourcer
Joe the John Toe Tapper
Joe, the Knee Jerk Evangelical
Joe, Jack Abramoff%u2019s Bro
Joe the Well Parachuted CEO

Did I miss any?



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by mytoosense at 09:27 AM : Oct 30, 2008

Yep you did miss, the BIG one:

Joe the foreign policy expert, "Lets invade Iraq" opps wrong country, sorry about that an lets spend (this year) 128 Billon to rebuild the infrastructure there. That bridge in you state? Money? You want money for that? We don''t have any! And Joe the Plumber does not have a license to rebuild it anyway.

Did I miss any?

Posted by mytoosense at 09:27 AM : Oct 30, 2008

Missed this one too.

John McCain''s campaign is looking for a scapegoat. It is looking for someone to blame if McCain loses on Tuesday.

And it has decided on Sarah Palin.

In recent days, a McCain %u201Cadviser%u201D told Dana Bash of CNN: %u201CShe is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone.%u201D

Imagine not taking advice from the geniuses at the McCain campaign. What could Palin be thinking?

Also, a %u201Ctop McCain adviser%u201D told Mike Allen of Politico that Palin is %u201Ca whack job.%u201D

Maybe she is. But who chose to put this %u201Cwhack job%u201D on the ticket? Wasn%u2019t it John McCain? And wasn%u2019t it his first presidential-level decision?

And if you are a 72-year-old presidential candidate, wouldn%u2019t you expect that your running mate%u2019s fitness for high office would come under a little extra scrutiny? And, therefore, wouldn%u2019t you make your selection with care? (To say nothing about caring about the future of the nation?)

McCain didn%u2019t seem to care that much. McCain admitted recently on national TV that he %u201Cdidn%u2019t know her well at all%u201D before he chose Palin.

But why not? Why didn%u2019t he get to know her better before he made his choice?

It%u2019s not like he was rushed. McCain wrapped up the Republican nomination in early March. He didn%u2019t announce his choice for a running mate until late August.

[mavnomore]

Sarah Palin, speaking on Oct. 29 in Bowling Green, Ohio, said Barack Obama "spent a lot of time with" Rashid Khalidi. "Rashid Khalidi, he, in addition to being a political ally of Barack Obama, he''s a former spokesperson for the Palestinian Liberation Organization," she said.

CNN Fact Check
The Verdict: Misleading. While Khalidi eight years ago hosted a political fund-raiser for Obama, the two men strongly disagree over the Israeli-Palestinian issue and there''s no evidence of a continuing political relationship.

The Lose Talk Express

Sam Stein reports:

In regards to Khalidi, however, the guilt-by-association game burns John McCain as well.

During the 1990s, while he served as chairman of the International Republican Institute (IRI), McCain distributed several grants to the Palestinian research center co-founded by Khalidi, including one worth half a million dollars.

A 1998 tax filing for the McCain-led group shows a $448,873 grant to Khalidi%u2019s Center for Palestine Research and Studies for work in the West Bank. (See grant number 5180, %u201CWest Bank: CPRS%u201D on page 14 of this PDF.)

The relationship extends back as far as 1993, when John McCain joined IRI as chairman in January. Foreign Affairs noted in September of that year that IRI had helped fund several extensive studies in Palestine run by Khalidi%u2019s group, including over 30 public opinion polls and a study of %u201Csociopolitical attitudes.%u201D

It''s time to take out the Trash.

It''''s time to take out the Trash.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by mavnomore at 09:57 AM : Oct 30, 2008

Got that right

[onarollagain]

Call Peter Wallsten 202-824-8376(office) 202-441-1940(cell) & ask him to release tape from%u2026 L.A. Times Refuses To Release Damaging Video Of Obama Praising PLO

[marshall65]

"Did you know that if Obama had to have a FBI back ground check he would fail. Now this is the guy people want in the white house."............That''s another Limbaugh story. In point of fact, as Lou Dobbs says incessantly, Palin and her husband would not get security clearance because of connections with the AIP. Obama has already passed the FBI check.

[dredigga]

Did you know that if Obama had to have a FBI back ground check he would fail. Now this is the guy people want in the white house.

Posted by crawag

No, I actually did not know that (especially considering that he had to have one completed already). I am a government employee and I have had an extensive one done and I am not a US Senator. I am told that anybody who receives classified briefings (members of the US Congress receives them all the time) had to have a top secret one done. I don''t know if you are familiar with clearances but Top Secret is one of the most extensive and that is the kind that our congressmen/women and senators get. This is a no-brainer. Common sense should prevail but unfortunately, that is a foreign concet when it comes to people on the right.

[briannorwood]

Poor McCain...

His "all negative all the time" strategy has failed. I can tell you, people in Pennsylvania are pretty disgusted with John McCain.

The general opinion I hear is that McCain has run a dishonorable campaign.

It is very, very unlikely he will win Pennsylvania.

[johnnie19-2009]

PEOPLE! PEOPLE!
Its over!....C''mon man! Its Over!
Now shake hands and go your on way...Go Obama!

[gop_will_win]

I for one am fascinated by your posts. In the same way I would be fascinated by a goat with two heads.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by johndevinejr
==========================
Ya I know, I am so smart it seems like I have two brains.

[dredigga]

The bad thing about running a dirty campaign is that the party you smeared to win, is the same party you will have to work with to get things done for the American people. That is why we would still have partisan gridlock if McCain can somehow snatch victory away. With Obama, I think we can move away from the poisionous partisan political environment in DC and finally start passing legislation that would benefit the hard-working people of this country (and for the rightwing folks, I am not talking about socialism, I know how you guys like twisting words). I am just talking about the two major parties working together to get this country back on track in the right direction.

[briannorwood]

KyRock1:

I cannot think of any personal attacks Obama has made against McCain.

Policy distinctions, for sure. Personal attacks (aka Socialist, Communist, Marxist, dangerous, etc) not.

[dredigga]

And what do you call Obama''''s personal attacks against McCain? At least McCain said he respected Obama. I haven''''t heard Obama make a similar statement, at all.

Posted by KyRock1

Senators Obama, Biden, Clinton all have said on numerous occasions that John McCain is a genuine American Hero and should be respected for that. You must have never had an open mind to even listen to the DEMs if you did not know that.

[dredigga]

Mudrose had to change at least 7 or 8 times I think

Posted by jh6379again

No suprise there as he was posting some of the most vulgar, nasty racist comments on this site.

[briannorwood]

ConDumbistan:

Pardon me. I have heard Obama say complimentary things about McCain on many occasions (including last night in Kissimee, Fla).

He is always respectful of McCains service and sacrifice, and has never called him any derogatory names.

As I said before, I believe McCain has run a dishonorable campaign. And I am sad to see it.

[dredigga]

I got a better idea. Why don''''t we just dump this antiquated electoral vote system and go straight popular vote, as Democracy was meant to be.

Posted by rafterman1

I agree. If we went by the popular vote in 2000, we never would have had to live under one of the worst presidents in modern history.

[abbe91]

"Raising Taxes in this Ailing Economy will destroy it. At THE BEGINNING OF GREAT DEPRESSION TAXES WERE RAISED FOR PEOPLE WHO WERE MAKING $100,000 (Which is much more than few million dollars today). IT KILLED THE ECONOMY.
OBAMA%u2019s LACK OF CHARACTER, INTEGRITY, JUDGMENT and EXPERIENCE Disqualifies him from the highest office on this planet.
Posted by DemocracyWin at 10:42 AM : Oct 30, 2008"

Nice you mention the great depression. Already then it took a democrat (FDR) to clean the republican mess.

[Confidential416]

I am an independent voter in PA- wishing PA had an early voting option. 6 months ago I thought I would be voting for mccain - then palin - reckless, erratic decision to put the country at risk for a short term gain of a few points in the polls. that''s when I began to really pay attention. time and time again mccain has been erratic, reckless, unprofessional - then he started with the negative campaigning - the other night in PA he addressed obama concerns with nuclear power blah blah blah... those were his words - blah blah blah over something as big a topic as nuclear energy... since nothing else has worked he has the fear tactics in full force.. and that was it for me - mccain became mcsame - their big word now - socialism ... the parrots of mccain of started using the word without knowing the meaning. worse yet, once they started using an "ism" they went from socialism to fascism - to whatever "ism" will scare the american people. I am done being afraid. I will vote Obama!

[wherenextnow]

OBAMA%u2019s LACK OF CHARACTER, INTEGRITY, JUDGMENT and EXPERIENCE Disqualifies him from the highest office on this planet.

Posted by DemocracyWin at 10:42 AM : Oct 30, 2008
-----------

Except for in the minds of the huge majority of Americans who will elect him. And there is nothing you can do about that.

[hwhitealltel]

John McCain lost this election when Sarah Palin spoke. He falls further behind each time she speaks. She is a woefully pathetic candidate. Imagine if he''d chosen Mitt Romney - just imagine - I think he''d be either tied or ahead. Most people who like me are in the middle can''t believe she is a Governor of a state. I feel sorry for her - shes clearly in over her head. McCain shoul dhave never put Sarah in this position.

[ahumbleopini]

Here''s the real income redistribution:
Exxon Mobil Corp. set a quarterly profit record for a U.S. company Thursday, surging past analyst estimates. Exxon Mobil the leading U.S. oil company, said its third-quarter net profit was $14.83 billion, or $2.86 per share, up from $9.41 billion, or $1.70, a year earlier. The company''s prior record was $11.68 billion in the second quarter of 2008.

[notmudrose1]

It''s over people. Barack Obama is our new president. I never was for the gop.