Is Montana In Play?

Republican Party Plans Ad Buy In Traditional Republican State As Poll Shows Obama Ahead

(AP)  Republican John McCain has history on his side in Montana. Democrat Barack Obama has 19 campaign offices.

Montana is typically safe territory for Republican presidential candidates. President Bush won the state by about 20 points in both 2000 and 2004, and only two Democrats - Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 and Bill Clinton in 1992 - have carried the state since 1948.

But Obama staked out Montana early as a potential battleground state and he's sticking with it to the end. McCain, confident of winning the state's three electoral votes, is virtually ignoring it, although the Republican National Committee will begin airing ads in Montana for the first time Wednesday.

Obama's campaign didn't back off when the state appeared to be a shoo-in for McCain in September. And now McCain's lead appears to be in doubt. A recent Montana State University-Billings poll showed the race within the margin of error, with Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 40 percent among likely voters, and 10 percent undecided.

Obama's rise may be less about his appeal and more about dissatisfaction with McCain among independent-minded voters.

The Democratic presidential hopeful was the beneficiary of support for Constitution Party candidate Ron Paul. Paul is not campaigning - he even asked to be taken off the ballot - but some supporters still say they will support him over McCain.

Obama also has been advertising in the state at a rate of about $160,000 per week. The Republican Party was expected to double that ad buy for the last six days of the campaign.

Up in the Kalispell area, more than 30 percent voted for Paul in the June primary - well after it was clear McCain was the party's presumptive nominee. Many will vote for him again, said avid supporter and AM radio talk show host John Stokes.

"People are just fed up with the mainstream parties," Stokes said. "Folks see this country is on a downward slope and not adhering to the Constitution."

Paul garnered 4 percent of the vote in the recent poll, although he has not made an appearance in the state and has no office or volunteers.

McCain's campaign has never considered Montana a battleground state and still doesn't. His campaign has no paid staff in the state but operates out of six offices it jointly runs with the Montana Republican Party, which staffs them.

McCain is banking on the advice of state Republicans who told him to focus on more competitive states.

"John McCain has basically punted in Montana," said veteran pollster and political scientist Craig Wilson, who oversaw the MSU-Billings poll. "But I am still surprised that Obama is still playing to the extent he has in Montana."

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That has left the state open for Obama to make his case. His campaign has been buying television ads for months, with no plans to scale back.

Still, Ethan Heverly, a University of Montana college student organizing for the McCain campaign, believes McCain will carry Montana despite the lack of paid organization in the state. Gun groups are helping with a strong push against Obama, while the addition of Gov. Sarah Palin to the GOP ticket is helping energize the base, he said.

"I think that, for the most part, he identifies better with Montana values and Montana voters than Sen. Obama does," Heverly said. "It's definitely competitive, I'm not going to lie to you."

The volunteer believes Obama's large organization is making it close but thinks McCain is doing the right thing to focus elsewhere.

"If Montana can stay red and we can allow Sen. McCain to focus his money elsewhere and be competitive in the larger states, I think that's a plus," Heverly said.

In its bid for Montana, the Obama campaign has seized on Western issues and developed nuanced platforms for farm, wildfire and natural resource policy.

But the McCain campaign says Obama is too liberal for places like Montana and believes that in the end voters in the state will embrace the Republican.

While the GOP has history on its side, Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer gives several reasons this year is different: Obama has been here five times to ask for votes; he is pitted against a Republican who does not excite conservatives on key issues like guns; and Obama has articulated a comprehensive energy policy.

Guns are an important issue to Montanans, and Democrats like Schweitzer and Sen. Jon Tester, who ousted longtime GOP Sen. Conrad Burns, score high with gun owners. Obama has tried to neutralize the issue by saying he won't take away guns.

But that hasn't eased the fears of influential groups like the National Rifle Association, which has lashed out at Obama as "a poster child of the extremist, elitist gun-control movement."

In years past, Montana rarely received attention from presidential candidates. And if it did, the state never received the committed attention it has from Obama.

The Obama campaign says it has no plans to pull resources from Montana, where it has 19 offices with full-time staff across the state. The campaign boasts 14,000 active volunteers, according to Caleb Weaver, Obama's spokesman in the state.

Obama's ties to Montana go beyond his numerous visits this season. His campaign chief of staff, Jim Messina, previously worked for Montana Sen. Max Baucus. Messina has promised the campaign will spend whatever it takes in Montana to ensure Obama is competitive with McCain.

[mitch5511]

I love the way Republicans try to put words in Obama''s mouth. They are terrified that Obama is winning! Obama is winning!

Obama is 10 times the man McCain is or will ever be and Obama will be the best president this country has ever had!

Obama/Biden 08

[cfin5]

Obama''s tax increases will be made retroactive,.....changing the rules after the yearly game has started. He''s BAD for business!

[robert2237]

loon0519- I will have to fully disagree with you. If you listen to the obama you will hear that he is in full support of taking money from me in the form of taxes right now, may turn in to a fee for doing business, like most socilist goverments do after a while. If you read his book you will find that this was the people he sought out and became friendly with. He even told Joe the Plumber on national tv that he wanted to spread the wealth around. Now we find he was talking about this in 2001 plus he even stated that the consititution was flawed, and doesn''t spread the wealth around. Now I do not know where you been getting your news but I have read it in papers, see it on TV and heard on the radio. So if you want this country to become a 3rd world country vote for the obama, if you want us to stay somewhat a 1st world country vote McCain. You and the rest of America will be making that choice. Once the choice is made then those of us that are still able to think on our own will have to stand up and protect our freedoms at all cost.

[kansas1946]

I love Montana. I grew up in Oregon and been to Montana many times ONLY during the Summer.

I hope it goes for Obama.


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Posted by Colt8881 at 06:10 PM : Oct 28, 2008
+ report abuse
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Me too! :o)

[concernedus]

Please watch this video regarding tainted milk from China in our food and Halloween candy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUB79WJ9ktQ

[velma179]

"Maybe I am reading your post wrong but do you think talking with terrorist is a good idea?

What honor do they have? They kill people, cutting off their heads, on video. Where was their chance to live and be happy?

You can''''t "talk" with people like this. Their ideas so far from reality. They are right and we are wrong and of course they are working for a higher power that says the same."

sassalin, I''m not the person you addressed but I have something for you to think about:

Do you realize that many people in the Middle East would make a comment just as you did about them... about us?

Opening up a dialogue that attempts to find a common ground in our shared humanity (and planet) certainly could do no harm in ending the fears and broad areas of misconception peoples of very different cultures have.
There are radical elements in every culture. Absolutism and Fundamentalism are equal opportunity offenders of the common good.
Please see, however, there are also people in every differing culture who just want to have shelter, work, eat and raise children and LIVE. It''s these people who we will engage and ally ourselves to when we choose diplomacy over war.

PS -- Montana is a beautiful place, I hope they kick their electors in for Obama/Biden.

[heidimt]

I currently live in MT. Where I live......I have never encountered such a racist, bigoted, hypocritical base of people. I work in Kalispell, thank God, which is somewhat modernized.

That being said, I am encouraged by the amount of people that are completely disgusted with Bush and McSame/Failin.

However, I am concerned by the fact that the number one issue for people out here is gun rights. Absolutley everyone owns a gun, if not ten, carries it with them, and allows themselves to get sucked into conspiracy theories.

I pray we go blue, just as we did with Tester and Schwietzer.

[kaviz]

sassalin, which terrorists are you talking about? Because Bush is responsible for killing more innocent poeple than any other known terrorist. As far as he thinks, he is right and the majority of the world is wrong. Which by your logic is the reason nobody wishes to negotiate with him.

[antoniof123]

More bad news for the GOP as if things weren''t bad enough.

I have been saying for 2 years that a blood bath was coming in congress if the GOP didn''t moderate. Guess what they didn''t but I didn''t think it would be this bad.

Looks like the GOP will have gone from the majority to the super minority in just 2 eleciton. Maybe with a little luck they can spin off the religious right wing and go back to being a deceint party agian.

[loon0519]

Allowing the expiration of tax cut legislation for the wealthy can hardly be called Marxism.
Do you understand these taxes were already on the books but were modified by Bush legislation. Obama is just going to let this legislation expire and the wealthy will be paying the same taxes that they did under Clinton.

Socialism is a theory or system of social organization that advocates the vesting of the ownership and control of the means of production and distribution, of capital, land, etc., in the community as a whole.

There''s absolutely nothing in Obama''s platform that is socialist by this definition.

In fact the $700B bailout pushed by our Republican president is about a close to socialism as this country comes.

If you don''t like Obama then don''t vote for him but stop using big words you don''t understand.

Do you understand that the amercan public has grown wise to the republicans affinity for ''swift boat" tactics?

The republicans and conservatives in general have lost all credibility with moderate voters because you try to appeal to our fears instead of our reason.

I''m not goping to be afraid of voting for Obama just because you tell me to.

You repubs are like frightened angry children that will say or do anythng to win. It would be amusing if it wasn''t so scary.

If Obama wanted to emulate McCain''s attack ads, we would hear robocalls in the Heartland informing America''s patriots that McCain:

a) was in the pocket of former Lincoln Savings & Loan president and convicted criminal Charles Keating;

b) was buddies with fellow convicted criminal Republicans Ted Stevens, Tom Delay, Scooter Libby, Bob Allen, Trent Lott, Jack Abramoff, Don Young, Larry Craig, Randy %u201CDuke%u201D Cunningham, Tom Feeney, Alberto Gonzoles, Bob Ney, Rick Renzi, Richard Curtis, Steven Griles, Mark Foley...etc;

c) accepted political donations from the Watergate convicted criminal G. Gordon Liddy;

d) picked a runningmate mired in scandal (Troopergate) and has acted "unethical" according to her own people - - and doctored expense reports to bilk her taxpayers;

You can%u2019t call yourself a patriot while voting for criminals.

[mr_sisko]

WHITE PICKET FENCES: It%u2019s noted that Sen. Obama plans to utilize the 700 billion dollar bailout to convert suburban homes recently acquired by the government (due to failed mortgages) to Section 8 low-income houses for inner-city families. Despite stereotypical fears of crime, school deterioration, and plummeting property values, arguably a low-income relocation program to suburbia enhances social equity for poor inner-city families, integrates the suburbs, and affirmatively spreads the wealth.

[hatesthecolt]

But, given the coup d etat I am witnessing today, I won''''t be surprised to see by 2012 the vast majority of out of work and disenfranchised Americans all wishing these punks would have been sucessful.



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Posted by AFactJack

Hey, meathead: I say again, you can''''t have a coup d''''etat if the succession is by popular support. Stop using words you don''t understand.

[sassalin]

Jean243,

Maybe I am reading your post wrong but do you think talking with terrorist is a good idea?

What honor do they have? They kill people, cutting off their heads, on video. Where was their chance to live and be happy?

You can''t "talk" with people like this. Their ideas so far from reality. They are right and we are wrong and of course they are working for a higher power that says the same.

[jean243]

Vote Obama for a better life for middle-class Americans and for tax cuts for the middle class. Vote Obama for getting our jobs back. I am dismayed when I call my credit card company and get someone in India or Ireland who has our American jobs. I am dismayed when the best-selling cars are Toyotas and Hyundais, a result of our Republican controlled government failing to push for better gas mileage requirements and failing to push for alternative fuels. Bush + McCain thrived on big oil subsidies and both of them failed to push for changes in the auto industry. Now GM and Chrysler may both be bankrupt due to McCain and Bush''s unwillingness to change. Obama = smart change that benefits Americans.

[jean243]

Bye bye McCain. The world has changed since the 1980''s. We''ve seen how UNREGULATED greed destroys the economy, our auto industry, too much government money given to insurance companies through Medicare since the 2003 Repulican "Medicare Advantage" was passed ("advantage" = taxpayers paying for insurance company profits), worsening air quality (leading to global warming and more asthma). Americans are speaking, and we are fed up with a Republican controlled Senate blocking the Democratic House, with a Republican president, and out-dated economic and foreign policies (please note: Gen. Patreus today speaks out for unconditional talks with the Taliban, something McCain ridiculed.) We have to vote for GOOD changes, that put middle-class Americans first.

[notmudrose1]

hello Ioweign, I don''t know where mudrose went. he hasn''t been on since mid-summer.

but where is mcvet and jh3679?

[ioweign]

Barack Obama has 19 offices open in the "Big Sky" state and is spending $160,000 a week in advertising to win what?? 3 friggin electoral votes??

Are you kidding me??

This should tell you exactly what a poor executive manager this Marxist truly is.

This is not a campaign folks....It is an attempted coup d etat!!

Posted by AFactJack at 12:22 PM : Oct 28, 2008


McCain had months to campaign when Clinton and Obama were campaigning for the Democratic spot - what was he doing - Oh Yeah - Columbia, Mexico and Canada visits...

How many Electoral Votes do Columbia, Mexico and Canada carry in OUR Constitution ??

[irmcvet97]

Are you kidding me??

This should tell you exactly what a poor executive manager this Marxist truly is.

This is not a campaign folks....It is an attempted coup d etat!!

Posted by AFactJack at 12:22 PM : Oct 28, 2008


How''s that Sparky! What is wrong with the good folks of Montana? They don''t have a right to be involved? I think, if I lived in that state, I''d feel a whole lot better about someone who cared enough to bring his campaign to my state! Maybe you should look up the definition of "Democracy" and give up the McCarthy Garbage... it doesn''t become ANY American!!

[hatesthecolt]

This is not a campaign folks....It is an attempted coup d etat!!


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Posted by AFactJack

Hey, meathead: you can''t have a coup d''etat if the succession is by popular support. He''s going to win actual votes and lots of them. Get over it.