WASHINGTON, Oct. 28, 2008
Early Voting Undercutting McCain?
Expert: Even If He Mounts Late Comeback, Its Impact Could Be Blunted By Ballots Already Cast If Obama Is Truly Ahead
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Photos Pursuing The Presidency Images from the debates, conventions and campaign trail in the 2008 presidential election.
But, says CBS News Senior White House Correspondent Bill Plante, a comeback isn't entirely out of the question.
Most polls have McCain down anywhere from 3-to-13 points. Still, Plante points out, he's been counted out before and come from behind.
So, what are McCain's chances of pulling off any upset?
"It's rare at this stage ... that candidates will come from behind and win," says James Thurber, director of the
But, Plante notes, it's happened before. In 1980, Ronald Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter in the polls, but surged ahead in the last week following their only debate.
"He turned the election into a referendum on Carter and what Carter had done the previous four years," Thurber explained.
In 1968, Hubert Humphrey almost overtook Richard Nixon "promising to get out of the war in Vietnam and that got a lot of people excited about him and he almost won," Thurber says.
Al Gore was down by 12 points in 2000, and came back to win the popular vote, though not the election.
So, what would it take in 2008?
"What it would take," Thurber says, "is to have a clear strategy theme and message by McCain on the economy and have people believe in it."
This year, early voting means the choices of millions of voters are already locked in.
"If some event occurs in the next (seven) days to help McCain," Thurber observed, "he may still lose, because a whole lot of people have already voted for Obama."
Another problem, Plante says" There simply aren't that many undecided voters left -- perhaps five percent.
So, the bottom line, according to Plante: A McCain comeback is possible, but it would take a very large swing of already committed voters.
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- Joe the dumber plumber should be out working and trying to pay his taxes. He thinks he is a hero wait till after nov4 he and Palin will be on the list McCain is not very smart.
- Reply to this comment
- Hey, A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words
www.garyinthemorning.com - Reply to this comment
- insite4U: "Does the president have to be at every natural disaster to make him look presidential? Heck man I was on vacation when Katrina hit I was smiling and having a good time."
Yeah, that was kind of the problem right there. Bush was busy smiling and having a good time eating his birthday cake with McCain after being told a Cat 4-5 hurricane was probably going to hit NO in two days. Meanwhile FEMA chief "Brownie" was emailing his assistants, asking them to reserve a few hours at a posh restaurant so he could have a good sit-down meal.
You not being in NO doesn''t mean diddly, Bush and the head of FEMA having a good time instead of mobilizing emergency forces? Total screwup. Just another reason why Obama has already won, we''re all quite tired of those kinds of Republican screwups. - Reply to this comment
- "What it would take," Thurber says, "is to have a clear strategy theme and message by McCain on the economy and have people believe in it."
Hmm, a clear strategy and message on the economy out of McCain, that people would believe. Well, there goes this election, congratulations President-elect Obama! - Reply to this comment
- "It''s rare at this stage ... that candidates will come from behind and win,"
Not even Mark Foley ... - Reply to this comment
- why is it that out of all the years that i have been republican; it''s only this year that i''m called a racist?
- Reply to this comment
- there is the bradley effect that some have forgotten.
i know of people that changed thier party and voted for clinton , just to knock obama off the ticket and when time to vote; will vote mccain - Reply to this comment
- "REPUBLICANS.....what a bunch of idiots!! Nobody..and I mean nobody is listening to you pathetic whining!! You are completely responsible for the current condition of this country!! John NcCain is an angry old man in the early stages of senile dementia....and Palin is pure Alaskan TRASH!! So do us all a favor and shut the h### up!
Posted by bhamgrad at 10:49 PM : Oct 28, 2008"
You whinny little, kool-aid drinking lemming. Go back to ''bama and get a real education, especially in HISTORY. The housing fiasco stems from DEMOCRAT programs dating back to Jimmy Carter. John McCain WARNED the Democrat Congress years ago that this was coming, but they ignored it. What did the Democrat Congress DO for the last two years? Steroids in Baseball!
Do us all a favor and use the brain you were born with, instead of your arse. - Reply to this comment
- REPUBLICANS.....what a bunch of idiots!! Nobody..and I mean nobody is listening to you pathetic whining!! You are completely responsible for the current condition of this country!! John NcCain is an angry old man in the early stages of senile dementia....and Palin is pure Alaskan TRASH!! So do us all a favor and shut the h### up!
- Reply to this comment
- What the Democrats have mischaracterized as a "negative campaign", is simply John McCain warning Americans of the dangers of Barack Obama as president.
Meanwhile, Barack Obama promises you pie-in-the-sky, and a chicken-in-every-pot, while setting a trap for middle-class taxpayers to become hopelessly ensnared in a Socialist dictatorship.
"We cannot expect the Americans to jump from capitalism to Communism, but we can assist their elected leaders in giving Americans small doses of socialism until they suddenly awake to find they have Communism."
- Soviet Leader Nikita Khrushchev, 1959
Reject Barack Obama.
Posted by OneAmerican7 at 07:35 PM : Oct 28, 2008
And life has been just grand the last 8 years that we want to return to the past with McCain... - Reply to this comment
