WASHINGTON, Oct. 28, 2008

Early Voting Undercutting McCain?

Expert: Even If He Mounts Late Comeback, Its Impact Could Be Blunted By Ballots Already Cast If Obama Is Truly Ahead

(CBS)  By all accounts John McCain is running behind Barack Obama a week out from Election Day.

But, says CBS News Senior White House Correspondent Bill Plante, a comeback isn't entirely out of the question.

Most polls have McCain down anywhere from 3-to-13 points. Still, Plante points out, he's been counted out before and come from behind.

So, what are McCain's chances of pulling off any upset?

"It's rare at this stage ... that candidates will come from behind and win," says James Thurber, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University.

But, Plante notes, it's happened before. In 1980, Ronald Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter in the polls, but surged ahead in the last week following their only debate.

"He turned the election into a referendum on Carter and what Carter had done the previous four years," Thurber explained.

In 1968, Hubert Humphrey almost overtook Richard Nixon "promising to get out of the war in Vietnam and that got a lot of people excited about him and he almost won," Thurber says.

Al Gore was down by 12 points in 2000, and came back to win the popular vote, though not the election.

So, what would it take in 2008?

"What it would take," Thurber says, "is to have a clear strategy theme and message by McCain on the economy and have people believe in it."

This year, early voting means the choices of millions of voters are already locked in.

"If some event occurs in the next (seven) days to help McCain," Thurber observed, "he may still lose, because a whole lot of people have already voted for Obama."

Another problem, Plante says" There simply aren't that many undecided voters left -- perhaps five percent.

So, the bottom line, according to Plante: A McCain comeback is possible, but it would take a very large swing of already committed voters.

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Add a Comment See all 134 Comments
by Mccarthyaw October 28, 2008 8:09 AM PDT
Socialist Democrats have largely occupied almost every position in public education, from Kindergartens to Ivy league Universities, where employment only opens slowly, and there, only to those who promote Communist ideals to any degree, whether moderate or radical. Where also, employment is scarce, just as much as the opportunities in the fields of education that they offer. Now they are trying to push corporations out of the country by raising taxes for businesses? Sounds like a dangerous move for a leftist take over...

Posted by silverStar06 at 08:04 AM : Oct 28, 2008

Rofl, your argument is hilarious. Only socialist democrats are teachers? Lmfao. Are they the only ones qualified?
Reply to this comment
by thechooch1 October 28, 2008 8:13 AM PDT
silverStar06

Sorry if most educated people are Democrats.

Calling them Socialists or Communists isn''t what this country needs right now, it need meaningful change. Get your tax facts correct, do some research and you will find that Obama''s tax plan is simply better that the Bush/McCain plan that hasn''t worked.

Remember the republican party has always stood for deregulation and less oversight.
Reply to this comment
by Gary Kempf October 28, 2008 8:14 AM PDT
silverStar06
With all do respect, The Democrats can''t push out those that already left to cheaper labor. It will just tax them for no longer being a American employee Company.
If they want tax breaks, Employ Americans.....
Reply to this comment
by ioweign October 28, 2008 8:14 AM PDT
Socialist Democrats have largely occupied almost every position in public education, from Kindergartens to Ivy league Universities, where employment only opens slowly, and there, only to those who promote Communist ideals to any degree, whether moderate or radical. Where also, employment is scarce, just as much as the opportunities in the fields of education that they offer. Now they are trying to push corporations out of the country by raising taxes for businesses? Sounds like a dangerous move for a leftist take over...

Posted by silverStar06 at 08:04 AM : Oct 28, 2008

No Child Left Behind is leftist ??

Buried deep within the funding benefits of No Child Left Behind is Section 9528 which grants the Pentagon access to directories with students names, addresses and phone numbers so that they may be more easily contacted and recruited for military service.
Reply to this comment
by o_nolan1 October 28, 2008 8:20 AM PDT
silverStar06, you are in the minority view now. Intolerance and paranoia are dying. People are uniting and the future looks forward, not backward, so covet your rear view mirror for as long as you can.
Reply to this comment
by elpaulito October 28, 2008 8:40 AM PDT
wow! Gotta say, it sounds like McCarthyism in here today! Wow, the good ole days. Ruining people''s lives over political affiliation in a so-called free country.

Reply to this comment
by nickpr53 October 28, 2008 8:42 AM PDT
"if obama truely is ahead" is the key part of the sentence here: no one really knows. And no one really knows if some dramatic event int he next few days will happen, and what its impact will be. But what we know is the record of each of the candidates and their running mates and Palin certainly looks bad: http://www.spinwhip.com/palin
Reply to this comment
by cbsguest6 October 28, 2008 8:43 AM PDT
I voted early and voted for McCain...
Reply to this comment
by hologram5 October 28, 2008 8:44 AM PDT
Remember the republican party has always stood for deregulation and less oversight.



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Posted by thechooch1 at 08:13 AM : Oct 28, 2008
_______________________________________
Yes, and look where it got us unfortunatly.
Reply to this comment
by qutlaw104 October 28, 2008 8:48 AM PDT
Education is a great thing, wish I had more of it. You go to school half your life to learn what the books say. One thing you don''t learn in school is common sense, that is what people need more of.
Reply to this comment
by Confidential416 October 28, 2008 8:55 AM PDT
We don''t have early voting in Pennsylvania... but I wish we did... there is nothing mccain and his imploding campaign can say or do at this point that would change my mind. It''s funny... I started out believing I would vote for mcshame..... after he chose palin, I thought him reckless and got on the fence...when he started with the character attacks and fear mongering... I recognized mcsame....
Voting Obama... today, tomorrow and next Tuesday!
Reply to this comment
by Confidential416 October 28, 2008 9:01 AM PDT
with regard to those who say "liberals" like it was a dirty word.... if it were not for liberal minded people there would be no U.S.A..The first modern liberal state was the United States of America, founded on the principle that "all men are created equal; that they are endowed by their creator with certain unalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness; that to insure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed
Reply to this comment
by grumpas October 28, 2008 9:02 AM PDT
Most liberals have expoused a socialist or marxist viewpoint for years. That is why they are called liberals. The difference is that liberals ask what you can do to assist the government (i.e. higher taxes and stricter regulation) while conservatives believe in very little government intervention (i.e. personal responsibility). To a liberal, the state is all, to a conservative the state is a hinderance to personal responsibility. Does that make the difference clear? Or did you go to government run schools?

Posted by bob5ford

Oh!!!! Is that why we have a trillion dollar deficit and the economy is crumbling????? Is due to conservative responsibility????? Who would have ever guessed??? Most of it is due to their ''borrow and spend'' philosophy. They don''t believe in paying the bills just leave them for the Democrats to pay. Their ''smoke and mirror''s'' economizing almost ruined us in Reagan/Bush1 era. Now thanks to his son we have a bigger mess due to their incompetence. We have wound up in two financial disasters with Republican''s (conservatives) at the helm now. When are people going to wake up and realize these people know jack s... about small government and economizing both????? Their ''trickle down'' theory doesn''t work!
Reply to this comment
by antoniof123 October 28, 2008 9:02 AM PDT
Ever been to one of these liberal university towns? You all must be blinded by the liberal light and high on the fumes of false democracy, because those places mirror the horrors of the Former Soviet Union more than any conscientious human being would want to allow.
Posted by silverStar06 at 08:35 AM : Oct 28, 2008

Ooooh another wing nut invokes the Soviet Union scare. When will you learn we are not buying the kool-aide you are selling.

It will be over in a few days and then you wing nuts can really scream and yell. Maybe Rush, Bill, and Sean can all jump up and down and call for well whatever.

Good night anc good luck.

Obama/Biden for a needed change in direction in America.
Reply to this comment
by brucie2006 October 28, 2008 9:14 AM PDT
McShame has a crowd of 10,000 and Obama commands a crowd of 100,000 people.

Obama ''08...
Reply to this comment
by czmdm October 28, 2008 9:14 AM PDT
I see McCain is banging the "spread the wealth" comment every where he goes. When paper pushers in Wall Street are making a 1000% more than the actual workers things are out of whack.

McCain sound likie an old time grandpa. He gets something negative about his opponent going and he just can''t get off that particular horse.

McCain proved himself to be an idiot when he picked Palin, who is right now probably the worlds most dangerous woman (and most trasparently uneducated and idiotic). McCain''s negative political campaign is so "old timey" as to be funny, if it wasn''t for the fact that this liar and angry old man is running for president of the finest country in the world.
Reply to this comment
by ioweign October 28, 2008 9:20 AM PDT
Most liberals have expoused a socialist or marxist viewpoint for years. That is why they are called liberals. The difference is that liberals ask what you can do to assist the government (i.e. higher taxes and stricter regulation) while conservatives believe in very little government intervention (i.e. personal responsibility). To a liberal, the state is all, to a conservative the state is a hinderance to personal responsibility. Does that make the difference clear? Or did you go to government run schools?

Posted by bob5ford at 08:35 AM : Oct 28, 2008

Actually it was a Republican that first mentioned "Social Security" for the American citizen.

Ralph Owen Brewster (February 22, 1888%u2013December 25, 1961) was an American politician from Maine. Brewster, a Republican, was solidly conservative, a close confidant of Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin and antagonist of Howard Hughes.

During his time in Congress, Brewster worked on legislation to provide old-age pensions (the forerunner of Social Security) although he was a prominent opponent of welfare and spending programs in President Roosevelt''s New Deal.
Reply to this comment
by brucie2006 October 28, 2008 9:22 AM PDT
...as a "liberal" its time to focus on creating US jobs; ending the Iraq war and taking care of the veterans and armed forces; completing the Afghan war; focus on education, including teaching *** education (enough with the underage pregnancies)...

there is no quick financial fix, it will take at least 4-5 years to slowly make a difference.

Reply to this comment
by tawabill October 28, 2008 9:28 AM PDT
Having just arrived in the Real World, bob5ford wrote:

Most liberals have expoused a socialist or marxist viewpoint for years. That is why they are called liberals. The difference is that liberals ask what you can do to assist the government (i.e. higher taxes and stricter regulation) while conservatives believe in very little government intervention (i.e. personal responsibility). To a liberal, the state is all, to a conservative the state is a hinderance to personal responsibility. Does that make the difference clear? Or did you go to government run schools?
-----------------------------------------------------

Hi, Bob, and welcome to Earth! First off, I think "expousing" is what you do when you get a divorce. ;-)

Second, these "conservatives" on your planet sound interesting. They certainly don''t bear any resemblence to the ones we have here. Our conservatives got us into an unnecessary war, increased government intrusion into our lives and bankrupted the economy. Now, they are engaging in real socialism by nationalizing our financial markets.

As far as personal responsibility goes, they seem to duck it in any way they can. One of them got convicted of outing one of our secret agents, and another one pardoned him. A bunch of the others made billions of dollars off dubious financial schemes but now blame everyone else and expect the government to take care of their mess.
Reply to this comment
by georgiadog8 October 28, 2008 9:33 AM PDT
Don''t count McSame and liberal, socialist (to Wall Street and big business) republicans out. There is still some time left to cheat and win.
Reply to this comment
by cariboubarbi October 28, 2008 9:38 AM PDT



McLame is just pushing the same old trickle down economics that have gotten the rich much richer while the middle class is slipping into poverty and the the whole country is sliding into massive debt.

Enough!

It''s time for CHANGE.

Obama 08!








Reply to this comment
by midvale3 October 28, 2008 9:47 AM PDT
trickle down works for people that believe in personal responsibility....when are you libs going to get that?


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Posted by jamesm12341 at 09:42 AM : Oct 28, 2008

Please!! Don''t pi55 down on my back and tell me it''s raining.
Reply to this comment
by repforbarack October 28, 2008 9:48 AM PDT

We''re laughing at you neocons!

lol...you have become a silly joke and have lil''bush to thank for it ;P
Reply to this comment
by teri0728 October 28, 2008 9:51 AM PDT
To codymac4 - I sent your handle and your ''joke'' to the FBI.

Ha.
Reply to this comment
by frankistage October 28, 2008 9:52 AM PDT
"The difference is that liberals ask what you can do to assist the government (i.e. higher taxes and stricter regulation) while conservatives believe in very little government intervention (i.e. personal responsibility)...." Sounds good on paper. Problem is Republicans aren''t conservatives. Hence the 10 trillion dollar debt, a DJIA that is lower than when Bush came into office eight years ago, and kowtowing to big business (particularly Big Oil, Wall Street, and the health insurance industry). They had their chance under Bush to show what conservativism was all about, but blew it. By the way, conservatives don''t believe in big government unless there''s some philisophical principle they want to ram down peoples'' throats. Then they''re all for big government.
Reply to this comment
by yeswecan09 October 28, 2008 9:53 AM PDT
mccain made his biggest mistake in selecting palin, a ditzy twit, as his running mate
*****
McCain would be in the lead if he pick Romney as his running mate. The entire NE would have been in contention because states like MA liked Mitt.

Bad choice by McCain and now it is coming around to biting him in the backside.
Reply to this comment
by midvale3 October 28, 2008 9:53 AM PDT
trickle down works for people that believe in personal responsibility....when are you libs going to get that?


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Posted by jamesm12341 at 09:42 AM : Oct 28, 2008

Please!! Don''''''''t pi55 down on my back and tell me it''''''''s raining.


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Posted by midvale3 at 09:47 AM : Oct 28, 2008


thus the personal responsibility, dont put yourself in a postion to be pi55ed on


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Posted by jamesm12341 at 09:50 AM : Oct 28, 2008



I''m not going to, which is why I''m voting for Obama.
Reply to this comment
by repforbarack October 28, 2008 9:53 AM PDT
We''''''''re laughing at you neocons!

lol...you have become a silly joke and have lil''''''''bush to thank for it ;P



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Posted by RepForBarack at 09:48 AM : Oct 28, 2008

and yet the "neocons" will still be more successful than you , no matter who gets elected.
Posted by jamesm12341


We''ve had this talk before.

Like you''d have any idea what success is...you''re a known troll around these parts. What''s happening over at fox faux news?
Reply to this comment
by repforbarack October 28, 2008 9:54 AM PDT
"Not all McCain supporters are racists.
But all racists are McCain supporters."








Early Voting?
I voted last wednesday for Barack!
Reply to this comment
by flreason October 28, 2008 9:54 AM PDT
I voted early and voted for McCain...
Posted by cbsguest6

Congratulations!! Admitting you have a problem is the first step on the road to recovery.

Seriously, I''m pleased when anyone votes...even if I disagree with their choice. Voting is not only a right, it is a privilege and a responsibility. I haven''t missed an election in the four decades I''ve been eligible to vote.

And a special thanks to Al Gore for making the Internet a public resource. The League of Women Voters did a good job with little money and few kudos, but the Internet allows us to really research candidates and issues.
Reply to this comment
by teri0728 October 28, 2008 9:55 AM PDT
McLame does and arrives at the gates of hell. The devil asks him "my brother John, what have you done in our life to warrant entrance into hell"? "Well", waving his short little arms, "I ran for President on nothing but lies and deceit and almost won. I also poisoned codymack4''s mind and that''s why he''s right next to me.

The devil said "my sons, welcome home".
Reply to this comment
by repforbarack October 28, 2008 9:55 AM PDT
If I were mcsame I''d be angry with myself too...the palin pick was a complete boon!
Reply to this comment
by repforbarack October 28, 2008 9:57 AM PDT
CAPTAIN McDiapers.
Posted by Colt8881


Nice! Can I add that to my ongoing list?
Reply to this comment
by yeswecan09 October 28, 2008 9:57 AM PDT
They will never get it. They are all the ones on the dole screaming "Spread the wealth, why should we have to work when we can live off of those who do"?
*****
You see this the reason why the GOP is getting hammer; liberals do not support giving a person a living wage so they can sit on their backside. What we want to do is give people a little breathing room so they can get back on their own two feet.

Until the GOP learns that people need help *temporarily* then they will continue to get hammered at the polls.

Yes I have had experience with working with the mentally ill and I have found that the system does work as long as the individual works at it.
Reply to this comment
by pmaldona October 28, 2008 9:58 AM PDT
I just hope every1 gets out there and votes..but honestly, I think it''s already over...

Obama/Biden 08-12 =)
Reply to this comment
by repforbarack October 28, 2008 9:59 AM PDT

Obama reminds us of what''s good about America!
Reply to this comment
by repforbarack October 28, 2008 10:00 AM PDT
Got anymore contributions to the list?
7 days from now they will expire along with McSinister''s failed campaign...


McCain/Ditzbot`08
Sarah Quaylin
Melenoma McLamely
McBritney
McSpears
McLifeAlert
McBush
McPsycho
McChicken
McInsane in the Membrane
McHoover
McCancer
McLame
McSame
Catfish McCain
McCain isn''t Able
Mc9/11
McSayAnything
McPOW
McNazi
McCantflyAPlane
McLoser
McComa
McGrinch
McYouAintMyFriend.....get away from me!!!!
McSouthernWhiteTrash
McGigolo
McVain
McCrypt
McClone
McBombBomb
McCrazy
McWanderingEyes
McTool
McAdulterer
McFlipFlop
McCelebrity
McSurgeOn
McPOS
McKook
McAnger
McCreep
McLoser
McLiverSpots
McStayTheCourse
Combover McLiverspot
McCantankerous
McLooseCannon
McInsane
McBuzzard
McLiar...with or without cheese?
McCon
McCan''t
McLooney
McSenile
McTrash
McImpotent
McLimp
McForget
McCrash
McDepends
McSlimey
McScum
McOldPeopleSmell
McTalesFromTheCrypt
McManWhore
McFalseTeeth
McOld
McTemper
McWheeze
McPorkBarrel
McPolygrip
McFailin
McRacist
McFallenAndCantGetUp
McWarMonger
McRaceCard
McWho
Amnesty Mccain
Captain McDiapers
Captain McDouschebag
Reply to this comment
by repforbarack October 28, 2008 10:05 AM PDT
possibly but who knows if viagra could help him at this point...

added :)
Reply to this comment
by flreason October 28, 2008 10:06 AM PDT
"I see that the Obama Supporters are out in full force today throwing their tactics of Name Calling around. I thought Obama was supposed to bring this country together yet all I hear from Obama Supporters is hatred."
Posted by BlackBabyMom

Excuuuuuse me. What am I...chopped liver? I''m an Obama supporter, but you will never find any hatred (or stereotyping all supporters of a candidate) in any of my postings. Stop trying to demonize Obama supporters.
Reply to this comment
by zhynaryll October 28, 2008 10:06 AM PDT
Hatred is not reserved only for jihadists, but also good Americans who happen to be Repubs. This is "bringing America together"? I haven''t seen any indication of this as yet. Early voting is a Dim ploy to skew the election towards their candidates, and I defy them to show otherwise. If the other side had done such, they''d be screaming, the MSM would be howling, the ACLU would be out in arms, and good people would be under fire for being "racists", or worse! And the bad thing is - nothing will be done until it''s too late. I foresee a coming revolution - and it won''t be peaceful, I''m afraid! People can be put down only so long until they explode. Dims take note - Repubs, too, if you don''t get your house in order!! Folks need to re-read the Declaration of Independence, if you need any further indications.
Reply to this comment
by dredigga October 28, 2008 10:09 AM PDT
trickle down works for people that believe in personal responsibility....when are you libs going to get that?

Posted by jamesm12341

When are you going to get that this "trickle down" junk does not work? Most rich people put these profits in their off-shore accounts instead of investing back into the economy. Now if we live in a fairy tale world where people always did the right thing, the trickle down effect would work but we don''t and they do not work. For a change, lets give the tax breaks to the middle class (the back bone of the economy).
Reply to this comment
by repforbarack October 28, 2008 10:12 AM PDT
folks, read this post, see how immature it is? and colt wants you to believe the reason he is not successful in life is because of Bush. businesses do not hire immature people for good jobs.
Posted by jamesm12341


Something of which jamesm12341 would have no idea about...heck even bush got the greatest job in the land.
Reply to this comment
by October 28, 2008 10:13 AM PDT
If I were mcsame I''''d be angry with myself too...the palin pick was a complete boon!

Posted by RepForBarack at 09:55 AM : Oct 28, 2008

====

I''m guessing you meant "bane".
Reply to this comment
by repforbarack October 28, 2008 10:14 AM PDT
folks, read colts and repforbaracks posts. yea, Bush is the reason they cant succeed in life
Posted by jamesm12341


When james gets backed against a wall he always reverts to the ''I''m more successful than you'' bit. I''m posting this from inside a major company btw
Reply to this comment
by repforbarack October 28, 2008 10:16 AM PDT
actually boondoggle...however hit enter before I finished :)
Reply to this comment
by flreason October 28, 2008 10:17 AM PDT
businesses do not hire immature people for good jobs.
Posted by jamesm12341

Please tell me where you work!! I worked in Fortune 100 companies for 25 years, and that wasn''t my experience. I found many immature, self-centered, ignorant, greedy "workers" among the "leadership". BTW, I was in administration...not an hourly union worker.
Reply to this comment
by repforbarack October 28, 2008 10:22 AM PDT
folks, these libs on here say it is Bush fault that people dont have jobs....yet all the libs have these "sweet" jobs.
Posted by jamesm12341



I have never talked/wrote about the above bush/jobs...

So jamesy...tell us about all the wonderful reasons why you''re voting for McCain
Reply to this comment
by repforbarack October 28, 2008 10:27 AM PDT
So jamesy...tell us about all the wonderful reasons why you''''''''re voting for McCain


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Posted by RepForBarack at 10:22 AM : Oct 28, 2008

because i have the right to vote for whoever I want to.
Posted by jamesm12341


Typical...it''s kinda tough to find someone who has something positive to say about McCain
Reply to this comment
by flreason October 28, 2008 10:29 AM PDT
FUMorons/codymac4:

Did you guys get out of line when God was passing out the compassion gene? Thanks to the Great Depression, my parents'' generation developed a "there, but for the grace of God, go I" sensibility. They saw the devastation of unemployment, homelessness, and starvation first-hand. Do you understand that many middle-class people have lost their jobs and their homes through no fault of their own? Would you guys have to experience it personally to learn some humility and kindness?
Reply to this comment
by dredigga October 28, 2008 10:30 AM PDT
Obama dies and arrives at the gates of heaven. St. Peter asks "Mr. Obama, what have you done in your life to warrant entrance into heaven"? Obama - "Well, I became President"! St. Peter - "When did that happen"? Obama - "About 15 minutes ago".

Posted by codymac4

How in the world does this seem funny? With our troubled past with respect to political assassination and our poor reputation on racism, one would have to brain dead to see any humor at all in this....Unless of course you are racist skin-head.
Reply to this comment
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