Oct. 24, 2008
Will Alternative Energy Run Out Of Gas?
Clean-Energy Field Getting Bitten By Credit Crisis, But Long-Term Trends Point In Its Favor
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Four of six windmills on a wind farm stand near Somerset, Pa., in this Oct 24, 2001, file photo. (AP Photo)
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Interactive
Alternative Energy
Learn about the types of renewable energy that are used in the U.S. and the regions of the country considered to be most suitable for each kind.
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Section
Living Green
Global warming is giving nuclear power a new claim to clean.
People in the alternative energy business have said repeatedly there are "great fundamentals" driving their businesses, namely high fossil fuel prices, supportive government policies, and growing environmental awareness.
Now some of the pillars underpinning green technologies are wobbling. Oil prices have plummeted more than 50 percent since the summer, making traditional energy sources look a lot more affordable than they did six months ago for businesses and consumers alike. And the global credit crisis that has sucked the wind out of the economy has done damage to the funding of alternative energy projects as well.
The hardest hit by a freeze or reluctant lending are renewable energies which are already commercial, or on the cusp of getting there. These aren’t cheap little startups we’re talking about: Constructing a biofuels plant costs upwards of a $100 million while connecting a solar power plant, capable of powering tens of thousands of homes, is in the range of $500 million and $800 million, depending on the size. In the current credit market, it’s tough to come up with that money.
But don’t write off clean tech as another casualty of the souring economy quite yet. Today's clean energy field is a lot more resilient than in the days of the 1970s oil price shock for one simple reason - society's priorities have changed since then. Climate change and energy security are front-page issues that still command the attention of consumers, businesses, and politicians, regardless of the economy.
Industry is also catching up to the demand for greener and energy-efficient goods, everything from non-toxic cleaning products to small wind turbines. The solar industry projects that cost reductions from technology and manufacturing scale will make solar power match the retail cost of electricity in some areas within a few years.
Nonetheless, the ballyhooed clean tech revolution is being slowed. The length of that delay hinges on the economy, of course, and government policy. Federal incentives to stimulate the transition to more diverse energy sources could serve as a backstop to keep the alternative energy movement on track for both economic and environmental reasons, according to Mark Fulton, the global head of climate change investment research at Deutsche Bank. That is, if there aren’t other spending priorities, like bailing out Wall Street.
"The current debate in the next year will include arguments around energy security, which will be combined with the climate change issue, in order to get people focused on the fact that it's a necessity and an opportunity," Fulton said.
Business fundamentals
Just a few years ago, hardly anybody heard the terms "clean tech" or "green tech," which describe products that make better use natural resources. Renewable energy and efficiency certainly aren't new. But the clean-tech wave is founded on an important idea: a company can make money with environmentally friendly goods. GE's Ecomagination initiative and Wal-Mart's solar-powered "sustainable" stores are two high-profile corporate examples. But there are hundreds of small firms which have formed over the past five years.
Venture capitalists - the same people who bankrolled the dot-com boom - have lavished money on green-tech firms, making it the fastest growing investment sector. But these start-ups come with a hitch, one that's only getting worse with the credit crisis: Energy technology start-ups typically require far more money than what venture capitalists are equipped to invest to take a product from the lab to the market.
The current fiscal environment makes getting that "late-stage" funding even tougher and, if debt is involved, more expensive. In particular, financiers of energy projects don't like technology risk. Wind turbines are well proven and the returns predictable. But understanding the economics of making ethanol from wood chips at commercial scale is still a black art at this point.
To some, that late-stage funding barrier exposes a structural flaw when it comes to technical innovation in energy, environment, and water. "We need a new financing system," says Matthew Nordan, the president of emerging technology advisory firm Lux Research. "The old one from the 1970s is unlikely to make it happen."
A role for government?
But even amid slumping financial markets and volatile energy prices, there's cautious optimism regarding alternative energies. Why? Politicians - most notably both major presidential candidates - say renewable energy will play a major role in fixing the nation’s energy problems.
Government spending is the real wild card. State and federal governments have helped get many fledgling clean-energy companies out of the nest. Michigan and the Department of Energy, for example, funded construction of a plant to make ethanol from wood chips, one of several DOE-backed projects. States tend to be eager to promote clean-energy businesses to help grow their economies and create jobs. But these projects are likely to be squeezed as tax receipts fall and budgets scrutinized.
Renewable energy industries like wind, solar, and geothermal, got an important federal tax credit extended last month. Among other things, consumers can now get a 30 percent tax credit for solar electric panels.
Clean-energy advocates say much more should be done, such as bulking up the power grid and mandating that utilities get a percentage of their electricity from renewable sources.
On climate change, experts believe it's only a matter of time before there are federal laws to restrict greenhouse gas emission from heavy polluters, like utilities; California and the Northeast states have already pushed ahead with their own carbon-emission reduction programs.
More immediately, the world leaders' reaction to the financial crisis could determine whether and how quickly clean energy technologies will make an impact on the energy business.
Governments may treat the economic crisis as a reason to backpedal on emissions reduction targets. Another school of thought is to make energy and environment an important part of government stimulus spending to upgrade infrastructure.
Many technologies - solar, wind, geothermal, cellulosic ethanol - can be scaled up today. Others, such as storing carbon underground at coal plants, need more active government involvement to make economically feasible, said Fulton of Deutsche Bank.
"We do indeed have many technologies that are in commercialization, or close to it, that can have significant impacts on the whole energy and electricity mix," Fulton said. "But there are still some looming that need public and private capital to keep pushing them down the cost curve."
By Martin LaMonica
Copyright ©2008 CNET Networks, Inc., a CBS Company. All rights reserved.




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See all 73 Commentsthe cause?
the focus wont be on wind (which it should because it the fastest means and safest and abundant and free)
no and not on other alternative fuels. it''ll be bio fuels. that means taking america grains from the food supply. and what happens when taxpayers subsidize that? (which you do) food stocks get reduced drastically too...cause all that food grain will be going for biofuels.
your food prices will rise.
at least pickens has a sensible plan for wind and natural gas. biofuels is a losing plan for americans. dead end plain and simple. you think food costs a lot now? waith til all thos bios generators start producing. they have a built in guaranteed profit thanks the our own government''s stupidity.
Sloppymonkey"
NO, efficiency is a LOSING game because the goal post keeps moving! Cars today get 300-400% more MPG than the cars driven in the 70''s did yet we use MORE gas than ever before and it grows everry year despite more MPG requirements on engines, conservation etc.
The root cause of ALL the problems is OVER POPULATION, until and unless that is addressed with some serious controls and CAPS on births, we will be doomed to require more and more and more resources, energy, space, homes, fuels, food, water, waste treatment plants, power plants etc.
It wont matter how many MPGS cars get or how many wind generators are put up- you double the US population from 150 million in 1950 to 305 million today and double it again in that kind of time frame and there WILL BE severe problems in every aspect.
Market based approaches to energy always prefer the local timeline for the long horizon. In the long term, oil prices are going to go up, until they are out of sight. We better develop alternatives now before its too late.
But, try telling that to the Joe Sixpack crowd, who measure energy costs by the cost of accessing this years World Series, future be damned.
And the other one million plaus supporters will keep the pickens plan vision alive
BooneRadio(dot)com
Posted by william8891 at 12:05 AM : Oct 25, 2008
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Amen,
As long as we allow Corporate greed and our paid for Congress we will not see our country free. We need to let them know its time to stop playing their game. We want something done now. If we don''t speak up and pressure them it will not happen. We need to take back our country. Its time.
Posted by tiktin1 at 12:14 AM : Oct 25, 2008
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tiktin1, Go ask the people in Chernobyl if they agree with you.
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I feel oil supply and prices are being controlled. Domestic suppliers are not using most of the land contracted to them. Domestic supplies are being sold outside the country. It is not a shortage but a controlled method to gain the most amount of money for the supply and supported by our Government. If we developed clean coal technology we have enough coal in this country to last hundreds of years.
William 8891 is right on that we have the means and ability for alternative fuels but are not using them. It is all about greed and our pay to play Congress. It is too funny how they blame all this on our so called "addiction" to oil. Ask our President and VP what this addiction really feels like. I just bet they know first hand along with many others in Congress.
To learn more about alternative energy, watch "Fuel", a new documentary coming in November to a theater near you. Go to thefuelfilm.com
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I agree with you. Many of us are doing everything we can to save energy and cut cost. You are so right that we all should be doing this regardless of the type of energy we use. I just get really fed up with the games played by the energy companies and our Government. They play us all like puppets on a string. We are getting smarter and some day they will find out just how smart we are when they are voted out or hear from millions of us who are sick and tired of their games in the quality of our lives and our environment. They have made a mess of our economy with corporte greed and their buddies in Congress that I think enough of us have had enough of them. We will see what the future brings.
Being rich does not mean you are smart, happy, wise, popular, healthy, loved, nourished, or lead a meaningful life. It only means you are entitled to many pieces of green paper or shiny metals, both of which are useless to humans except as game pieces.
Much of the oil we use comes from America, but even that doesn''t create jobs and a sustainable future. A few people make all the money, and we the people get to clean up the mess.
------Hmmmmmm.---------
Posted by robert2237
hmmm....yes and no
wind is abundant and it could be implimented very rapidly compared to bio fuels. costs much less and create more jobs too. far better than bio as a stop gap. ther are vast areas in the west with winds to generate much more than you may think. ''
natural gas is abundant and if exploited properly would greatly reduce dependence on imported oil.
bio fuels aren''t practical for food reasons and we subsidizing them tremendously....so we only hurt ourselves choosing it as a stop-gap.
we need oil, but held captive by the oil companies. it''s a monopoly (competitive) and either you pay or you don''t get.
Posted by robert2237
sorry bit i think you mean the preserve in alaska?
do you actually think it will reduce prices one ota? or even reduce our dependence on imported? statistics show that even if they get access to anwar it will contribute very little to supplies. very little.
people have this fanatasy that if they do get access our dependence will be reduced aharply and that just isn''t true. the real percentage is very small. i don''t have the stats available now but i think it''s in the small single digits.
and if you think that''ll reduce prices --- no it will only be more oil.
We IMPORT LPG by the tanker loads because we don''t have enough, or did you miss that? been in the news because people dont want LPG offloading terminals and the explosion risk of a container ship packed full of explosive liquified pressurized gas in THEIR "backyard."
Did you also miss the supply and demand ratio? increase the demand for LPG and the PRICE skyrockets like it did about 3-4 years ago to double per therm.
Its not the "libs" or the "Dems" who dont want drilling in ANWAR, its the envirofreaks who file LAWSUITS to block it and protest it.
Alaskas oil prod declined 65% since peaking in 1988
The US uses over 20 MILLION barrels A DAY, the USA produces 1.8 million barrels a year (2007) of which Alaska produced 263 million (but the state consumed 1/5 of THAT- or roughly 50 million)
Alaska prod only 4.8% of all the crude and oil products supplied to the US- counting all sources.
Ethanol, wind and solar will never amount to a few single percentage points of the whole- hel1 the entire prod of Alaska''s oil fields has amounted to only 4.8%, the US population and demand grows every year.
Natural gas if demand increases will see PRICES increase dramatically, and why not? the producers/distributors/middlemen all want as big a cut as they can get
They are ugly and people don''t want to see them- the NIMBY syndrome.
Also, a bunch of NEW ones in Maine had to be replaced due to gearbox problems, others have failed in various ways with the blades coming apart, shattering or "exploding" in spectacular displays when speed limiting brakes failed in windstorms or lightning hit- Ive seen the video clips and the news reports and they have some design and quality problems- they are too dam BIG
No. Do the research. If you seek an energy source that the U.S. has in abundance, you find natural gas. Not only do we have a lot without importing (reduce dependence on foreign oil), but it is clean burning and easy to use in cars and trucks on the road now.
People are running too close to the edge in the "paycheck-to-paycheck" cycle. We either control energy costs, or ripple affects from price surges could cause another tipping point - assuming we recover from the current one.
Nobody has an extra spouse to send to work anymore in an attempt to deal with higher energy costs. We already sent them to work in the ''80s in our - *economically - successful attempt to cope with both higher energy prices and the initial impact of Republican "trickle down" economics.
(I say "economically" because I think that, overall, not having one spouse at home full time for the kids had and is having serious effects in the social realm.)
Posted by mroutside12 at 10:01 AM : Oct 25, 2008
lolll...are you sure about that?
Going strictly by supply and demand, your position suggests that global demand has gone down by over 50%, in line with the reduction in oil prices.
Massively successful conservation attempt, that...
Or, perhaps, the explosion of the funny-money (CDOs, etc.) removed the leverage people were using to speculate in the oil markets...
Or perhaps the oil companies stopped speculating in the oil commodities market with their own windfall profits out of fear that a more honest Administration was on the horizon...
by the High Energy costs last year--
Faltering businesses were pushed over the edge--
The USA''s enemies know we are most vulnerable
through economic subterfuge
Getting a Marshall style program to stop the
flow of funds to dangerous regimes is imperative.
One of the greatest National Security threats we face
We can argue over which is the best alternative
But lets find one fast--
Before our enemies reduce us to breadlines!!!
As some previous posters have correctly shown, the easiest way to affect this country is through energy.
I believe that it''s absolutely imperative that we develop at least some energy independence, or there won''t be an "America" as we have come to know it.
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