The Way Presidential Polls Work - Or Don't

CBS Evening News: Crunching The Confounding, Sometimes Contradictory Numbers

(CBS)  The only thing predictable about presidential polls lately is how unpredictable they are. As the election draws near, new polls come out almost daily. But they often have very different results from the one that came before. How does this happen? CBS News senior political correspondent Jeff Greenfield runs the numbers.

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You've heard this all before: Great news for Barack Obama! He's 13 points up. No, wait, great news for John McCain, he's only one point behind, or is it 3 ... or 7 ... or 10?

Well it's all of those. The spread between the candidates depends on which poll you're looking at. And it's the same with key states.

Obama's up either 2 points in Virginia or he's up 10 points in Virginia. McCain is up 1 point in Ohio or 12 points down in the Buckeye State.

How can that race vary this widely? Because of the way polls work - or don't work.

First, different polls make very different assumptions about who's likely to vote.

"If you assume that you have to have voted before, you probably undercount your voters," said CBS News polling director Kathy Frankovic. "If you trust them and when they tell you they're definitely going to vote, you may be representing them accurately. You may possibly be overestimating their share of the electorate."

Then, there's the cell-phone vote. Today, almost 12 percent of Americans don't have land line phones at all. Some polls - like ones conducted by CBS News - can reach them. But polls that use automatic dialing techniques can't.

"The cell phone-only people are disproportionately young, but not all of them are young. There still are a significant number of middle-aged folks who are only reachable on their cell phones," Frankovic said.

In fact one study shows polls that include "cell phone-only" folks give Obama 3 points more than polls that don't include such voters.

Another point: When a poll says it has a margin of error, you have to understand what it means. It means it could be off by 3 points in either direction for either candidate.

So, if Obama has a 50 to 45 lead, it could mean anything from a 53 - 42 edge, to a 48 - 47 edge for McCain.

Finally, some polls can be just plain wrong. And people can change their minds.

This is why Kevin Nealon on SNL years ago reported that "in a recent poll, 85 percent said if the election were held today - they'd really be surprised."

[chatelain3]

Change We Need! You bet cha. We need to change back to walking closer to God. America..."the land across the seas of unwalled cities", has drifted from the Father like the Hebrew children did all to often in the past, and each time Gods smartly corrected. "We the People", the generations of the founding Fathers of the United States of America. Can we learn from our mistakes fellow citizens? Before God corrects us again. (i.e.911/Katrina/floods/tornadoes/wild fires, or hostages in a foreign country etc.)
If you believe in these words about Jesus written in the bible, "The government will be upon his shoulders", then pray God will help us if our President has no Lord and savior. Obama says Jesus died for his sins, but he needs to accept his perfect sacrifice instead. Boom! Your its your spiritual B-day and your eyes open. Say it, there is a difference. There is also a fundamental difference b/t the candidates, when each considers life begins. I wish The Saddleback interviews were now instead of just forgotten.
Think back America to churches during the week after 911. Come on America, one nation under God with liberty and justice for all.
If you consider the margin of error, one third are for Obama, one third for McCain and one third will make the difference. If you are on the fence about this election it is probably because you are still on the fence with God. I pray for this one third which was cast on rocky soil. This maybe your only notice!

[sbelknap01]

Most people have no idea how much they paid in federal income tax last year. Do you? Look at your income tax return, check the line that says "tax due". How much can a married couple with two little kids earn before they pay one dollar in tax? Don''t know? Look it up - before you develop you opinion. Most people don''t even know how much money they earned last year. Ask them and they''ll tell you their take-home pay per paycheck. How much gross income? In a year? They haven''t got a clue. And John McCain''s plan to tax your health benefits will cost you more than just the tax on those benefits, people - it will give you a higher gross income for tax credit purposes, one that may well do you in when it comes to the credits that you now receive. If you don''t know, please ask your tax person before you decide. Or vote based on something else, like the consistency of message that Obama has displayed.

[norepubs]

Bu$h and his gang of thieves redistributed $680 billion of the country''''s wealth to the rich over the last eight years. (Hope members of the middle class didn''''t spend their $300/$600 Bu$h vote bribe in one place) McLame will be more of the same-PLUS he is going to tax your health insurance benefits to death.
Anybody who votes for greedy republican SLIME is either rich,brainwashed,or needs their head examined.
I say take that $680 billion in redistributed wealth and make these rich b a s t a r d s pay for the Wall st. bailout-especially since it was repub deregulation that got us into this mess in the first place!

[norepubs]

Bu$h and his gang of thieves redistributed $680 billion of the country''''s wealth to the rich over the last eight years. (Hope members of the middle class didn''''t spend their $300/$600 Bu$h vote bribe in one place) McLame will be more of the same-PLUS he is going to tax your health insurance benefits to death.
Anybody who votes for greedy republican SLIME is either rich,brainwashed,or needs their head examined.
I say take that $680 billion in redistributed wealth and make these rich b a s t a r d s pay for the Wall st. bailout-especially since it was repub deregulation that got us into this mess in the first place!

[norepubs]

Bu$h and his gang of thieves redistributed $680 billion of the country''''s wealth to the rich over the last eight years. (Hope members of the middle class didn''''t spend their $300/$600 Bu$h vote bribe in one place) McLame will be more of the same-PLUS he is going to tax your health insurance benefits to death.
Anybody who votes for greedy republican SLIME is either rich,brainwashed,or needs their head examined.
I say take that $680 billion in redistributed wealth and make these rich b a s t a r d s pay for the Wall st. bailout-especially since it was repub deregulation that got us into this mess in the first place!

[norepubs]

kathysun better take her meds. Her paranoid schizo delusions,and mania have kicked into high gear.
It''s clear that this repub shill is mentally ill.........

''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''


This IS the REAL BARACK OBAMA,
Posted by KathySun

[norepubs]

Bu$h and his gang of thieves redistributed $680 billion of the country''s wealth to the rich over the last eight years. (Hope members of the middle class didn''t spend their $300/$600 Bu$h vote bribe in one place) McLame will be more of the same-PLUS he is going to tax your health insurance benefits to death.
Anybody who votes for greedy republican SLIME is either rich,brainwashed,or needs their head examined.
I say take that $680 billion in redistributed wealth and make these rich b a s t a r d s pay for the Wall st. bailout-especially since it was repub deregulation that got us into this mess in the first place!




Obama is a socialist, anti American because he wants to redistribute the wealth, HE wiches to give your hard earned pay 50% to Obama/Government, then he will redistribute to who ever he deems less fortunite than you are,

[norepubs]

Hey j e r k o f f, Halloween isn''t until the 31st.
Better get yourself a better costume since everyone can see right through your pinheaded charade.......

.............................................................................................................

I SAW HOW THEY PULLED THIS ON HILLARY CLINTON.I AM A DEMOCRAT.VOTED FOR MR CLINTON BOTH TIMES.I VOTED FOR KERRY,GORE.THIS GUY IS NOT THE RIGHT PERSON

[norepubs]

The repub simpletons posting here are paid by the RNC.
Don''t be too hard on them. They need the money.The double wides need a new coat of paint to cover the rust....
The irony is that these are the very people who have been disenfranchised the most by republican policies of GREED.

[anotherview2-2009]

POLL: a number that supports an existing position, belief, and/or agenda.

[fbla1805]

I really have to laugh reading the remarks here about "work hard and get rich" vs. "taking govt. handouts". People, we just this week witnessed the biggest "govt. handout" in the history of mankind on the face of the planet - $1.2 Trillion (that''''s 1,200 1-billion-dollar-bills - can you grasp that?) to who?

People, your earnings for years to come, even earnings of your children and grandchildren, have just been handed over to the Wall Street bankers and brokers who have our country in a stranglehold.

"Conservative Republicans" need to wake up. This is not about fake "Joe" (actually Samuel) the Plumber!

Make no mistake, the policies of deregulation, begun under Reagan, continued by Bush & Cheney, and supported for 26 years by John McCain, have set America on a long slide down into second rate status.

And make no mistake, the policies of McCain & Palin would lock us into this downward spiral until we crash into the ground!

Voters thinking about casting a ballot for McCain/Palin should first think seriously about how well they''''ll do in a new Great Depression, because that is what McCain Palin will bring us.

Let''''s not kid ourselves - this election is not about last year''''s culture war - it''''s about our economic survival.

Right now, these Republican policies have got us with one foot in the next Great Depression, and the other on a slippery banana peel named McCain & Palin. We need to elect Obama & Biden for the middle class to survive in this country!

[chicagoguy49]

LOL yes I find it amusing that Palin says Obama pals around with terrorists (but always only mentions one name) when in fact she is married to someone who advocates seceding from the United States. Obama was a child when Ayers was doing his thing during Vietnam. Palin was clearly an adult when she addressed the Alaska Independence party.

Maybe she had the devil in her as she missed her latest pentecostal laying on of the hands.

[chicagoguy49]

I find it amazing that the republican party can maintain sway over such a large percentage of the American public when their policies are driven by support of the top 1% of the wealthiest in America. Wake up people the Republican party is not concerned with the "common citizen". It is and has been for many years the party of fear, support of the richest, support of corporations at the expense of the working class, the wedge of bigotry and hate for those less privileged than themselves, etc etc. They have somehow convinced middle class people that a Democrat in office will ruin their shot at the proverbial American Dream. Wake Up!!!

[fbla1805]

Is Sarah just innovating again? Does want to end the recession we''re heading into with "trickle down" economics, by spending lavishly on herself?

--$4,716.49 on hair and makeup just through September,
--$22,800.00 for makeup Oct. 1-15,
--$5,102.71 at Bloomingdale%u2019s New York,
--$9,447.71 at Macy%u2019s in Minneapolis,
--$49,425.74 at Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York
-- $75,062.63 in a whopping spending spree at Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis (hey, doggone - this "hockey mom" is goin'' upscale on us real fast!).

Then there''s the $21,012 for her three daughters'' 64 one-way and 12 round-trip commercial flights since she took office as Gov. in December 2006 (thankfully, that bill was paid by the state of Alaska, admirably proving Palin''s credentials as an equal-opportunity biller!).

Republicans used to belittle former Sen. John Edwards'' $400 haircut, but compared to Palin, that looks like chump change!

Even "Joe" (actually Sam) the Plumber must be turning green with envy - Palin''s fashion budget for just these past few weeks is already more than four times the median salary of an American plumber ($37,514).

If elected, maybe she''ll single-handedly spend us out of this big recession Bush has us heading into! Wouldn''t she make a swell Pres.?

John McCain thinks so! Making her the V.P. candidate was his single most important decision going into this election campaign!

Does that make you confident of his judgment if elected President? Or not so much?

[joey7776]

Polls are like Wall Street, they suck !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mydogdylan6]

The ONLY disagreement in the polls is by what amount Obama is leading. :P

Not a single one has stated McCain is ahead.

[mydogdylan6]

Barack Huessein Obama, the most famous Community organizer in America
=====================
I find it amusing you folks, and the Pub pundits, continue to make fun of the "lowly comminity organizer".

When in fact, Obama is kicking your butts because his campaign showed superior oranization from day one.

Poetic justice is always a joy to behold.

[slvrsurfer2]

"Obama is up by 37% per NYT/CBS poll.

AP has it at 1% near even.

Funny huh ?"

Okay. I''ll say it again. Get your number right before you try to make a point. The New York Times / CBS poll has Obabma ahead by 13 points, not 37 points. Useful truthful information.

[olivia4441]

All polls are wrong. What is right is voting AGAINST the man who has ties with terrorists.

[flsunjnky]

Posted by KathySun at 11:33 AM : Oct 25, 2008

Oh, my dear Kathy, what a fool. Here is the real deal. The truth is, Barack Obama was born in the state of Hawaii in 1961, a native citizen of the United States of America. His birth certificate is on file at The Department Of Health Hawaii U.S.A. State of Hawaii, Honolulu. Again, Kathy, get real!