Early Voting At Record Pace

Politico: The Shift To Early Balloting Has Made Election Day More Of A Final Deadline Than A One-Day Event

(The Politico)  With 12 days to go until Nov. 4, Americans are casting early ballots at a record pace.

Whether encouraged by state officials to vote early and reduce the chaos and lines on Election Day, or pushed by campaigns to convert enthusiasm into tangible results, the shift to early balloting has made Election Day more of a final deadline than a one-day event.

In 2004, one out of every five Americans voted early, and if reports so far this year are any indication, an even larger proportion will wake up on Nov. 4 with their ballots already cast. More than 30 states -including most of the key swing states that will decide the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain - allow their citizens to vote early, whether by mail or in person.

In Georgia, almost 800,000 votes have been cast so far - already more than the tally in 2004 with over a week to go. By Thursday morning in North Carolina, more than 750,000 people had voted since the polls opened a week ago.

Nevada, where more than half of all voters cast early ballots four years ago, kicked off voting last weekend and ramped up access to early polling sites in such places as supermarkets and libraries.

"We've expanded early voting this cycle and increased the number of locations and number of hours in anticipation of record turnout, trying to drive as many people as possible to the early voting locations," said Secretary of State Ross Miller, who prefers early voting and expects only 40 percent of the votes in his state to be cast on Election Day.

If previous elections are any indication, analysts said, the swell of early voting will only increase ahead of Nov. 4.

"If these numbers stay as they are right now, and we match patterns we've had in the past, we've yet to see the wave crest in early voting," said Michael McDonald, a professor at George Mason University and a consultant to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission who compiles data on early voting.

So far, it appears that the Obama campaign's drive to get people to the polls in October is paying off, at least according to data from several swing states that track voter demographics: More than 55 percent of early voters in Georgia were female, for instance, and more than 35 percent were African-American; in North Carolina, fewer than a third of those who voted early identified themselves as Republicans; and more than 60 percent of first-day early voters in Clark County, Nev., were Democrats.

"These numbers are really astounding - they defy all the patterns of early voting we've seen in this modern era," McDonald said. Based on past elections, he explained, "The early electorate tends to be more Republican in their character than the Election Day electorate."

If the trends are borne out to favor Obama, that would be a big change from 2004, when Republicans won the early vote in every state but Iowa, the one place where Democrats focused on locking it down. Even so, Bush made up the difference on Election Day and carried the state by just 10,000 votes.

McDonald said that what appears to be a heavy Democratic tilt in early voting this year doesn't necessarily mean a rout is on the way, but he said it could indicate a groundswell of enthusiasm that might carry over to Election Day. "These people are excited, they already know who they're going to vote for," he said.

The Obama campaign’s special emphasis on maximizing the early vote was illustrated this week in the critical battleground state of Florida, where over one-third of the voters cast their ballots ahead of Election Day in 2004. Obama spent the beginning of the week stumping and hosting “Early Vote for Change” rallies as state officials opened the first early polling stations on Monday. In Miami-Dade County, lines formed outside voting locations even before they opened at 7 a.m. Almost 500,000 people voted in Florida by Thursday orning, according to data compiled by McDonald.

In Fairfax County, Va., a D.C. suburb where Obama hopes to run up the score to help him carry the state, more than 40,000 ballots have been cast by Wednesday night with more than a week to go, compared with 45,000 early ballots in the entire 2004 general election, McDonald said.

The rolling tide of ballots has dramatically changed campaign strategy, political analysts said. Field operations must run on high gear with weeks to go, and candidates must shell out more resources to win every news cycle as voters make up their minds and cast their ballots.

"Some state and local candidates complain that it makes it more difficult to put the political strategy in place because it makes the voting period longer," said Nevada’s Miller. "You have to do your media buy much earlier in anticipation."

Early voting also can blunt the impact of any dramatic last-minute event that could swing the election. In Colorado, for example, almost half of the state’s 2 million votes were cast early in 2004, while this year the number could break 60 percent, McDonald estimated; by 7:30 p.m. p.m. Wednesday, more than 450,000 mail-in and early ballots had been received, he said.

"If the McCain campaign has some sort of October surprise to release, now's the time," McDonald said Monday. "The number of early voters in Colorado is so great."

Perhaps the clearest sign of early voting's new prominence is the amount of litigation and legal posturing it has attracted.

In Indiana, Republicans challenged the opening of three satellite voting centers in Democrat-rich Lake County - a linchpin in Obama’s strategy to carry the state - citing fears of voting fraud. On Wednesday, the Indiana judge ruled to keep the centers open.

In Ohio, local Republicans - with the explicit approval of the McCain campaign - sued to allow observers at early voting locations after Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner said they weren't mandated.

And late last week, also in Ohio, a judge in Hamilton County appointed a special prosecutor to investigate charges of voter fraud after Democrats accused county prosecutor Joe Deters of a conflict of interest and voter intimidation, forcing him to recuse himself from a grand jury investigation. Deters had launched the grand jury probe and subpoenaed the registration records of about one-third of the Cincinnati-area voters who took advantage of a one-week window in early October that allowed them to vote and register at the same time.

[flreason]

A single election day makes sense from a cost standpoint, and would be more viable if businesses, schools, and government offices were closed for the day...similar to the days when states had blue laws that closed all but necessary businesses (hospitals, police, fire depts., etc.) on Sundays. If they would increase the number of polling places and the number of volunteer poll watchers, I would prefer a single election day.

However, within the current set-up, voting over an extended time brings more voters to the polls, eliminates excessive waits, and allows more scrutiny and less congestion. It is a pragmatic solution to an historically inefficient system.

[flreason]

GrammaWhamma:

None of the above. We are voting for Obama because the actions of the Bush Administration and the Republican controlled Congress demonstrate a leadership and party that has been corrupted by power and no longer supports the Constitution. My preference would normally be for a Congress and President of different parties so they could keep one another in check. However, the collusion of the current Republicans in Congress in the destruction of many Constitutional guarantees and their ''death to political opponents'' tactics make a drastic housecleaning necessary. Hopefully, this will be the first step on a road back to moderation in both parties, and the fielding of candidates who will represent ALL of their constituents, and who understand and support the Constitutional limits of power.

[caldwellptr]

I Voted Early.

I voted early because I already knew who I was voting for. I voted early because there was no need to wait until Election Day. I voted early because I wanted to avoid any lines and crowds. I voted early because I wanted to make sure my vote was counted. I voted early because I wanted to make sure my vote was not disqualified for any reason. I voted early because I can. I voted early because I got to see the vote tabulated and a paper receipt printed. I voted early because I LOVE MY COUNTRY.

[grammawhamma]

How can you Obama supporters fall for this guy hook, line and sinker? It amazes me that people believe the *** he is spewing...is it just because you think you will save a few bucks on your income taxes? I''m not willing to sell my soul.

[biggcheese1]

ANY, I repeat, ANY, collection of taxes by ANY government is redistribution of wealth and is a form of socialism. The republicans are just as socialistic as the democrats but in the opposite direction; they prefer to take from the less fortunate to give to the fortunate. We''ve been doing that now since 1984 and this "me first" attitude has caused us to become the biggest debtor nation in the world. The deregulation required to make sure the fat keep getting fatter has caused the current WORLD WIDE economic crisis. It''s time to move back to where we were pre-1984. Those that TAKE HOME a little more, pay a little more. That puts more money into the pockets of the people who don''t make so much so that they can SPEND IT at stores and restaurants and other places that EMPLOY people. This is not rocket science, folks, just simple economics. Take a course. Learn. Then write.
If you''d prefer rocket science, that''s OK, too. Warning: Don''t mess with hypergolics... nitrogen tetroxide OR monomethyl hydrazine. At your stage of development, stick with potassium nitrate and sugar.

[dixxson-2009]

VELMA Don''t use Arithmetic, Numbers
and facts, with a republican.
MSNBC,s Kudlow and so called conservative economists, are just like the 1980,s Christain Scientist that you don''t hear much from anymore.
They have rejected the basic principle of their alleged professions.
1 minus 1 equals zero
And Science being the Business of "Learning" with religion being the business of "Believing".

[airboatboy1]

Why are Republicans such sore losers? Just relax, you''ll get over it. And it''s not over yet. Enjoy the comedy while you can!

[runningralph]

I''m going overseas to work for a couple of months, so I went to the court house to vote absentee. I was surprised to see the line ended outside of the building. Why are so many people voting early? I saw two people I know and they said they were avoiding the crowds on election day. They were standing in a crowd and saying they were avoiding a crowd. I''m sure one of them was a Democrat and probably the other one as well. I wonder if they will try to vote again later on.

[grumpas]

Rezko -gate,Wright gate,Ayers gate,NAFTA Gate,Bitter gate,Iraq gate Just a few of the lies Obama told the people, Gone behind their back to other countries leaders, and threw the American people under the Bus.

Posted by seah5

Shouldn''t you be getting your information from some reliable source other than Rush Limbaugh????? All of your arguments have been proven false a long time ago. No one is listening to your lies. We have heard it for years and learned to tune it out! People like you are pathetic. All you can come up with are imagined infractions, false innuendo''s and out and out lies to attack a good man! You people are starting to sound like a bunch of carping whining babies!

[cliffjon]

On the early voting and the election segment I did not understand why were the majority of the swing states in favor of Barack Obama?
I find it disturbing that your news was a one-sided hypothetical prediction of the election. Black Guy, Ohio

[robert2237]

jimjus -If tax cut for middle class is socialism as said by McCain then it is good socialism

jimjus- I can see by what you posted above that human natural is starting to kick in. Most people will accept anything when they are afraid. I am seeing a lot of people state that socialism isn''t so bad. Well you might want to look at Russia, Cuba, China and on and on of the states that have tried it and it is a total failure. What worries me is that with a minor ecomony problem we have right now people are starting to believe that the obama''s socialism that he has openly spoken about is ok. People we will have to fight our way out of this if we allow ourslefs to be put into it. No matter how afraid you are for you job, home or what ever else. If we go socialism then what little you do have left and what freedom you have will be gone and in a few years we will be fighting to get back our freedom and never be able to get back what was taken from us. So digg in and fight the fear it won''t be for long and fear of losing some money or your home should be very minor fear compaired to losing your freedom.

[seah5]

Obama''s tax plan is a travesty to the American People. The poor who already get welfare, free food, free medical, heating assistance and other entitlements, will be able to collect tax credits. In his attempt to bring them up to middle class with out having to go to work or pay taxes.

Those between 30,000 and 70,000 will not make out to good. They will still pay taxes off the top, to local, state and Federal. Pay their bills, cost of housing, buy food, utilities and their affordable health care. Only those eligible will get the tax credits. Plus have to go out and work every day. (local and state taxes will be going up)

Since the People in Chicago and Illinois are still waiting on their promises for years, We should not hold our breath. It is just another gimmick to get elected.

Since Obama is only running on his words. With no congressional history or voting to prove he has or will do anything for the people or the Country.I think people are going to be very disappointed when no of it happens.

Mr Obama already has shown his bad judgement, and that he has no Honor or integrity.

Rezko -gate,Wright gate,Ayers gate,NAFTA Gate,Bitter gate,Iraq gate Just a few of the lies Obama told the people, Gone behind their back to other countries leaders, and threw the American people under the Bus.

[jimjus]

If tax cut for middle class is socialism as said by McCain then it is good socialism. What McCain wands is to take the money from the middle class and give it to the rich also socialism which ruin the growth of economy.

[velma179]

"My question to you.... if I am a owner of a company making $250k profit a year and living to my means (as 98% of Americans do)...then...why would I give up a higher percentage of my profits each year instead of firing someone and keeping my profit margin...?

I mean... if I am a successful business owner... I am not going to pay "uncle sam" when I can fire an employee to make up the extra tax burden."
********* slayrre... my reply:
If you are making a profit of $250k and your tax changes under Obama''s plan, you would only be taxed an additional (approx, I''m not accounting for deductions, depreciation, etc...) $10,000.

If you were only paying your employee $10,000 for that year (about $834 a month) -- then you had probably shipped your jobs overseas... (which is absolutely NOT good for America, by the way) or you are breaking [most state] wage laws here.

Also, if your after tax income is $162,500 that then went down to $152,500... you''d still be doing quite well "living within your means" at about $12,708 a month.

It would be your personal ethics that determined whether you would fire someone (maybe resulting in one more person on "welfare") or trying to grow your business with skill and ingenuity -- the American way.

Besides -- the wages you paid were already covered in the "expenses'' part of the equation that leads to your profit. That''s just accounting 101.

gotta go make din-din, nice talking to you... perhaps more later

[barbaram99]

We had to file for it and send in that data asked for. Yer have to a ss number to gotten it. i ran THE form off ON THE PRINTER and filed it with other papers. We have voted by mail.

[velma179]

slayrre ...

"My question to you.... if I am a owner of a company making $250k profit a year and living to my means (as 98% of Americans do)...then...why would I give up a higher percentage of my profits each year instead of firing someone and keeping my profit margin...?
I mean... if I am a successful business owner... I am not going to pay "uncle sam" when I can fire an employee to make up the extra tax burden"

*********** my reply
If you are making a profit of $250k and your tax changes under Obama''s plan, you would only be taxed an additional (approx, I''m not accounting for deductions, depreciation, all the yada, yada ...) $10,000.

If you were only paying your employee $10,000 for that year (about $834 a month) -- then you had probably shipped your jobs overseas... (which is absolutely NOT good for America, by the way) or you are breaking [most state] wage laws here.

Also, if you had made after tax income of $162,500 that then went down to $152,500... you''d still be doing quite well "living within your means" at about $12,708 a month.

It would be your personal ethics that determined whether you would fire someone (maybe resulting in one more person on "welfare") or trying to grow your business with skill and ingenuity -- the American way.

Besides -- the wages you paid were already covered in the "expenses'' part of the equation that leads to your profit. That''s just accounting 101.

[velma179]

slayrre ...

"My question to you.... if I am a owner of a company making $250k profit a year and living to my means (as 98% of Americans do)...then...why would I give up a higher percentage of my profits each year instead of firing someone and keeping my profit margin...?
I mean... if I am a successful business owner... I am not going to pay "uncle sam" when I can fire an employee to make up the extra tax burden

*********** my reply
If you are making a profit of $250k and your tax changes under Obama''s plan, you would only be taxed an additional (approx, I''m not accounting for deductions, depreciation, all the yada, yada ...) $10,000.

If you were only paying your employee $10,000 for that year (about $834 a month) -- then you had probably shipped your jobs overseas... (which is absolutely NOT good for America, by the way) or you are breaking [most state] wage laws here.

Also, if you had made after tax income of $162,500 that then went down to $152,500... you''d still be doing quite well "living within your means" at about $12,708 a month.

It would be your personal ethics that determined whether you would fire someone (maybe resulting in one more person on "welfare") or trying to grow your business with skill and ingenuity -- the American way.

Besides -- the wages you paid were already covered in the "expenses'' part of the equation that leads to your profit. That''s jut accounting 101.

[slayrre007]

anya136....

I was looking forward to getting some real answers from your link...then I read this in the article... and I felt like I was hearing more spin doctors for a particular candidate:

"We e-mailed a questionnaire to 683 research associates......A total of 142 responded, of whom 46% identified themselves as Democrats, 10% as Republicans and 44% as neither."

THEN THIS....

"The Democrats were overwhelmingly negative..."

PLEASE for the sake of everyone... give us a credible source that isn''t based on party lines. Lets leave the party bias at the door during this discussion.

AND BY THE WAY...ALSO FROM THE ARTICLE...

"....the McCain campaign should be buoyed by the fact that 530 economists have signed a statement endorsing his plans."

AGAIN...not disagreeing with you...but asking questions that I would prefer straight answers to.

[slayrre007]

anya136...

Thank you for the link. I am sure that each side can give me links forever to argue each side. The thing is... I am tired of the "experts". We need to start thinking for ourselves and figuring out the answers for ourselves for a change.

I will read the link...again...thanks.

[slayrre007]

velma179...

I have not read anywhere that any tax break or proposal is planned for people who do not earn income. It IS called INCOME TAX.

And...if this is the case...you will never hear it come from the lips of Barack Obama.

I wouldn''t accept this scenario. I highly doubt that most American''s would want to reward the percentage of people on welfare that refuse to work.

It seems to me...that our system of capitalism isn''t broken...but has rather been abused by Wall Street and the politicians in Washington. Any system that supports the creations of new businesses, opens new jobs, and promotes development as a result... has merit in my opinion.

Additionally, isn''t this the path to the American dream...? How many immigrants opened their own business in this country and have made money...? Anything that hurts this opportunity for Americans needs to be closely examined.

If the people on Wall Street and the politicians in Washington were doing their jobs...and capitalism DIDN''T work... then the system needs to be replaced.

At this juncture...I think we can all agree that "those people" have not been doing their jobs.