Oct. 17, 2008
The Fight For Florida
CBS News Examines States To Watch In '08: Can John McCain Hold Onto The Sunshine State?
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Previous stories in the States To Watch In '08 series: Minnesota | Colorado | Wisconsin | Ohio | North Carolina
When we think about swing states, Florida always comes to mind. Yet Florida’s 2000 contest seared such an imprint in the nation’s memory that it’s easy to overlook what happened in 2004: Florida wasn’t close.
George W. Bush carried Florida by five percentage points - a fairly comfortable win by recent Presidential election standards. Bush received one million more votes in 2004 than he did four years prior.
So what has put Florida, which looked like it might have been headed into the comfortably-red column in 2008, back on the “states to watch” list this year? Three questions:
The County-by-County Battle
Florida turnout increased by more than 1,500,000 votes between 2000 and 2004 - mostly to the Republicans’ advantage.
The Bush campaign made especially sharp gains in the expanding exurban counties and in rural areas. The relationship between increased turnout and Bush success was undeniable: in the 21 larger counties (60,000 or more votes each) that Bush won in 2004, total turnout skyrocketed by 600,000 votes from what it had been in 2000.
The Jacksonville area, in the Republican north, is a great example. Duval county (Jacksonville) went about the same 58% for Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Turnout there increased by 90,000 in 2004, translating to a larger Bush vote tally.
Also keep an eye on inland Clay County, whose exurbs that grew as residents moved further afield from Jacksonville. In 2004 its 80,000-plus voters delivered a staggering 75% vote share for Bush… Can McCain get that kind of backing?Ways To Win
Calculate your own path to the presidency with our Electoral Vote prediction map.
The same is true for the reliably-Republican counties throughout the Panhandle that are sometimes thought more of as a part of the “Deep South,” including Leon County (Tallahassee) and Escambia County (Pensacola, a retirement area for many southerners.) For a Republican candidate, Northern Florida is the base. It’s the place to watch for big vote margins, not vote swings, and McCain will need the kind of convincing wins up here that Bush got.
In the middle of the state lies the oft-discussed the Tampa-Orlando “I-4” corridor, usually the swing part of this swing state. There are a lot of closely-contested counties here.
Starting at the top of the corridor, watch Orange (Orlando) and Seminole.
Orange County has absorbed much of the growth from booming Orlando, fueled by tourism (this is home to Disney World), high-tech business, an influx of people young and older, and new residents from other parts of the U.S. and from across Latin America (more on the Hispanic vote later.) The net result is a split county, about as evenly divided as any in Florida. That probably makes it a bellwether: Obama would try to combine support from African American voters (about one-fifth of the population) and upper-income professionals in the same kind of coalition that he seeks in other growing urban areas.
Seminole County leans more Republican. It has a quarter million voters and is one of the state’s fastest-growing exurban areas, having added about 75,000 people this decade and 50,000 voters in ten years. But it is less diverse than Orange. Like other fast-growing counties around the state - and the country, for that matter - Bush won Seminole by a comfortable margin in 2004. It could indicate McCain’s fortunes as well as any county.
Down the corridor, watch Hillsborough, which contains Tampa. This is marginally Republican, growing, and thus far trending Republican. Bush won it in 2000; thanks to turnout gains he won it by a wider margin and more voters in 2004. Hillsboro was up 96,000 in turnout over 2000.
If McCain is doing well with higher-income Republicans and suburbanites, he could match Bush’s margins, and that would help him carry the state. (Obama, for his part, will be tested in how well he can hold on to white working class voters here.) Also watch Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), which is a little less wealthy and has been almost dead even in partisan registration as well as recent voting.
Further south, the Democrats try to answer the North’s big Republican gains with their own. In watching the “Gold Coast” counties, keep a close eye on the margins, even if they look lopsided. After 2000, the voting inclinations of Broward and Palm Beach counties may be some of the best-known in the nation -- but it’s about how many votes the Democrats take out of here, not whether or not they win.
Palm Beach’s voters went 60% for Kerry in 2004, and he got 64% of the vote in Broward; but neither was enough. Kerry benefited from a turnout surge in Broward (plus 121,000 votes from 2000) and Palm Beach (plus 84,000) - but that still wasn’t enough.
Percentage-wise, Gore did better; he got 63% in Palm and 68% in Broward in 2000, perhaps aided by having Joe Lieberman on the ticket.
Lieberman is, of course, on McCain’s side now, a fact that shouldn’t be overlooked in this region. Palm and Broward Counties are so large (nearly two million votes together) and so critical to Democratic vote margins statewide that without something considerably over 60% here, it is difficult for a Democrat to carry the state, based on recent history. Bush won one-fifth of the statewide Jewish vote (concentrated in this area) in 2004. If McCain draws similar numbers, Obama’s odds of winning the state drop off.
Margins are more narrowly Democratic in Miami; if McCain holds 47% of Miami-Dade (as Bush did), he’ll keep the Democratic vote edge there to a manageable level.
Demographics
There are at least three big demographic battles that will play out in Florida.
First, there is the Hispanic vote. Florida’s Hispanic population continues to grow rapidly; the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey estimated that Florida's Hispanic or Latino population has reached 20%. 2004’s exit polls showed 15% of the 2004 vote was cast by Hispanics, and while turnout and eligibility are wild cards, there is clearly potential for a sizable increase in the 2008 Hispanic vote.
But it is within the Hispanic vote that a critical story will unfold. As the Hispanic vote increases, the relative share of it that is Cuban declines. Florida’s Cuban community has long-standing allegiances to the GOP.
Florida’s Hispanic population is approximately 18% Puerto Rican and 14% Mexican. But the most salient change among Florida’s Hispanics is the increase from Latin and South American countries such as Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, Argentina, and most markedly Panama. Together, these ethnic groups now comprise around one-third of Florida’s Hispanic population. If the Hispanic vote increases but the relative share of the Cuban vote drops to around one-third of it (as it could), that could mean trouble for Republicans; the other groups are not as loyally Republican.
In 2004 George W. Bush carried 56% of the Hispanic vote. If, because of either demographic or preference changes, John McCain musters only an even 50-50 split of Hispanics, that will deal a sharp blow to the Republicans’ chances of holding Florida.
Second, of course, is the senior vote. Like all states, Florida is diverse in age, but its 19% of the electorate over age 65 in 2004 was among the nation’s highest. In the 2008 Democratic primaries, older voters were not Barack Obama’s strongest group. And in 2004 John Kerry lost them in Florida (by three points) en route to losing the state by five points. Obama will need to carry older voters or mitigate his losses, if he’s to be competitive. However, if he can boost turnout among younger voters, which is certainly possible, Obama may not need to win among seniors.
Third is the African American vote. It was 12% in 2004. John McCain cannot expect to do as well as the 13% George W. Bush got among this group; that in itself probably makes Florida in 2008 a little closer than it was in 2004. The test for the Obama campaign will be whether (and by how much) it can get African American turnout up.
Registration
There are over 10 million registered voters in this vast state - and about 500,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, though that hasn’t really seemed to matter. In 2004 and 2000 there were more Democrats, too.
But that gap of 500,000 today is around 150,000 voters larger than the edge the Democrats held in 2004. New registration has leaned Democratic, though in a state this large it hasn’t dramatically altered the electorate as it has in, for example, New Hampshire, Iowa, or North Carolina. Republicans have been stagnant: there are almost exactly as many registered Republicans now as there were in 2004, despite a hotly-contested GOP primary this year.
Still, McCain may have a couple of advantages beyond those recent trends. Florida has a Republican Governor -- unlike a host of other swing states - and Charlie Crist already helped win the state once for John McCain in the primaries. That could mean an active and strong GOP turnout machine.
And speaking of the primaries, the Democrats didn’t campaign here this winter. McCain did. Around the country, a lot of the swing or “toss-up” states right now are places where the ground is still warm from the Clinton-Obama primary battles (see, for instance, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire) not to mention more voter familiarity with the candidates.
Florida may not have been suspenseful in 2004, but there are plenty of storylines to watch here now.
Anthony Salvanto is CBS News Manager of Surveys. Mark Gersh is Washington Director, National Committee for an Effective Congress, and a CBS News Consultant
By Anthony Salvanto and Mark Gersh.
©MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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See all 62 Comments''JOE THE PLUMBER'' THOUGHT HE WAS SETTING A TRAP FOR SENATOR OBAMA, , ,
, , , BUT NOW JOE FINDS HIM SELF IN THE VERY HOLE HE DUG FOR AN HONORABLE MAN THAT IS TRULY TRYING TO HELP 95% OF THE AMERICAN WORKERS. JOE GOT WHAT HE DESERVED.
Why McSame attack Obama 20 times with the name of ''Joe the Plumber'' and never vetted ''Joe the Plumber''?
When you decide the make a ''fake unlicensed $250,000.00 plumber'' the centerpiece of your campaign, and assume the media wouldn''t try to confirm the story, after you brought Joe''s name 20 different times; then McSame is truly a man with no wisdom and poor judgment.
GOD Bless the United States of America!
GOD Bless the Obama-Biden Leadership Team!
''Joe the Plumber'' thought he was setting a trap for Senator Obama, , ,
, , , but now Joe finds him self in the very hole he dug for an honorable man that is truly to trying to help 95% of the American workers. Joe got what he deserved.
GOD Bless the United States of America!
GOD Bless the Obama-Biden Leadership Team!
Why McSame attack Obama 20 times with the name of ''Joe the Plumber'' and never vetted ''Joe the Plumber''?
When you decide the make a ''fake unlicensed $250,000.00 plumber'' the centerpiece of your campaign, and assume the media wouldn''t try to confirm the story after you brought Joe''s name up 20 different times; then McSame is truly a man with no wisdom and poor judgment.
''Joe the Plumbers'' current sorrows is McSame''s responsibility because McSame interjected fake Joe into his campaign. McSame will use anybody to get what he wants.
GOD Bless the United States of America!
GOD Bless the Obama-Biden Leadership Team!
Joe the plummer, a regular American trying to live the American dream, is now the focus of hate from the Liberals.
- - - - - - - - -
WHY IS HONESTY SO HARD FOR McSAME SUPPORTERS. NEITHER OBAMA NOR BIDEN ARE ATTACKING JOE. IT WAS McSAME WHO BROUGHT JOE INTO THE CAMPAIGN. OBAMA & BIDEN ARE SIMPLY DEFENDING THEMSELVES.
When you decide the make a ''fake unlicensed $250,000.00 plumber'' the centerpiece of your campaign as did McSame, and assume the media wouldn''t try to confirm the story after you brought Joe''s name up 20 different times; then McSame is truly a man with no wisdom and poor judgment.
''Joe the Plumber'' current sorrows are McSame''s responsibility because McSame interjected fake Joe into his campaign. McSame will use anybody to get what he wants.
GOD Bless the United States of America!
GOD Bless the Obama-Biden Leadership Team!
Posted by alohaone1
Perhaps the reason most do not see that is because we are getting rid of the RISKIEST choice ever made, George Bush, and the country is paying dearly for his leadership these last 8 years. Obama is not a savior, as that is Jesus Christ, but he is articulate, brillant and one of the best politicians in our life time. He will do this great nation proud and I am more than delighted to cast my vote for him. I think the DEM ticket is a much more safer pick when one adds airhead Palin to the equation. That would not be risky, that would be irresponsible and McCain is paying the price for selecting her.
John McCain and Sarah Palin are two prime targets of the Liberal Attack Machine.
What all this means is - the Liberals have taken to a new direct-threat strategy; VOTE FOR OBAMA, OR BE DESTROYED.
There is no difference here than is demonstrated in Socialist and Communist dicatorships around the world.
Vladimir Putin, Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro are prime examples of the type of society where the Democrats are attempting to force us.
AMERICANS MUST REJECT THIS TYPE OF POLITICS, AND REJECT BARACK OBAMA IF WE ARE TO REMAIN A FREE SOCIETY.
YOUR LIVES AND LIVELYHOODS, AS WELL AS THE SURVIVAL OF THIS COUNTRY IS AT STAKE.
CHOOSE YOUR VOTE WISELY! %u201C
OneAmerican7 at 04:21 PM : Oct 17, 2008
Oh, BullS**T
Fear and panic of the Republicans. Learn how government works, it''s called the House, Senate, Judiciary.
Republicans should know that, you had control for 6 years, have ******* about the last twowhat exactly did you accomplish even with control? *** little.
How about Bush? Put us in Iraq with lies? Got that? And folks believed it. Every single reason was proven wrong.
Want to be afraid of something, try Itchy Finger McCain as President who believes EXACTLY as BUSH does.
Posted by White-Marsh
I don''t need anymore proof as I knew his judgement was out of whack when he chose Sarah Palin (the least qualified person ever to be on a major party ticket)
WITNESS THIS: do you believe a judge should go to prison for attempting to rule that attempted murder by forcible suffocation not only isn''t a crime at all in florida, it isn''t a tort at all in florida, in fact it''s a medical procedure, for which priviledge i''m forced to give the state my whole life savings?
doesn''t that sound bad?
this is a real lawsuit, orange co. case # 2003 ca 5314. i am totally unrepresented, haven''t been able to find a lawyer in 7 years. the judge is cynthia mackinnon, and if i could fire her i would have fired her four years ago. after all this time i still have no clue whether she is republican or democrat.
John McCain and Sarah Palin are two prime targets of the Liberal Attack Machine.
OneAmerican7
I will choose my vote wisely and that is the reason why I would not dare cast a vote for the GOP. Not only are those two (McCain/Palin) are liars, hypocrites, and out of touch - they are the ones running around attacking Obama. You people who would actually vote for them with Palin on the ticket need to have your brain examined. You lack common sense because if you had any, you would feel like the majority of Americans who want change. It is obvious when you look at the polls. Obama/Biden 08!!
It demonstrates exactly what Americans are going to be subjected to if Barack Obama becomes president.
Whenever anyone voices an opinion or point of view that is different than the Liberal ideology, they are immediately personally investigated and attacked by the Liberal Press, vilified, dragged through the mud, and their character impugned.
John McCain and Sarah Palin are two prime targets of the Liberal Attack Machine.
"Joe the Plumber", a regular American trying to live the American dream, is now the focus of hate from the Liberals. Joe Biden recently went on a late-night talk show and smeared Joe the Plumber himself, mocking him. And Joe Biden CLAIMS to be a regular guy? Hardly. Biden has actually proven himself an elitist snob, and an attack dog against average Americans.
There is no difference here than is demonstrated in Socialist and Communist dicatorships around the world.
Vladimir Putin, Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro are prime examples of the type of society where the Democrats are attempting to force us.
AMERICANS MUST REJECT THIS TYPE OF POLITICS, AND REJECT BARACK OBAMA IF WE ARE TO REMAIN A FREE SOCIETY.
YOUR LIVES AND LIVELYHOODS, AS WELL AS THE SURVIVAL OF THIS COUNTRY IS AT STAKE.
CHOOSE YOUR VOTE WISELY!
Posted by OneAmerican7 at 04:48 PM : Oct 17, 2008
Whenever anyone voices an opinion or point of view that is different than the Liberal ideology, they are immediately personally investigated and attacked by the Liberal Press, vilified, dragged through the mud, and their character impugned.
Posted by OneAmerican7
I see now that you are almost equal in intelligence to an idiot. That could not be further from the truth. The only people who do that sort of thing is the GOP. I hope you recall that anyone who did not support boy genius "Bush" was called unpatriotic. If you had just a little common sense - you wouldn''t have even posted that rubbish.
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Posted by alohaone1 at 04:54 PM : Oct 17, 2008
SOS, Even the same day, Do some reading, like factcheck.org do some digging 99% proven incorrect.
Just come out and say it, you don''t want a black man as Preident, come on you''ll feel better and we''ll see who you are without your white sheet on.
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Posted by bellschotsch at 04:57 PM : Oct 17, 2008
Actually, very much in play, for once it''s considered a swing state or don''t you read the news?
Posted by alohaone1
He may as well because he is going to lose anyway. But he runs the risk of opening himself up to his own questionable associations. That is why I am amazed about GOP''ers, they throw all kinds of stones and don''t realize that they are living in a glass house too. To me that is a sign of being delusional (which I am sure is normal for the GOP faithful)
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Posted by bellschotsch at 05:14 PM : Oct 17, 2008
Same there, possible swing read the news and not just CBS
in Florida? How about a republican party willing and able to do ANYTHING to steal the election, just like they did in 2000.
Posted by bellschotsch
That is interesting as I just saw the latest poll for Florida and it said that Obama was leading by 5 points. But I know in GOP eyes that means they are winning (backwards folks). If McCain loses Florida, it will be an early night and should be considered as the FAT LADY singing. It will be all over. :)
%u201CI know Obama loves America,%u201D Palin said on the short flight from Cincinnati to Indianapolis when asked by CBS News whether she thinks the Democratic nominee loves his country as much as she does.
%u201CI%u2019m sure that is why he%u2019s running for president. It%u2019s because he wants to do what he believes is in the best interest of this great nation.
The drugs must have kicked in.
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Posted by bellschotsch at 05:17 PM : Oct 17, 2008
SOS Same day, swing states, looked at a map lately?
Thought I would enlighten the Repubs a little :)
Posted by bellschotsch
I thought this would interest you bellschotsch:
Friday, October 17, 2008 Email to a Friend
Barack Obama has inched further ahead of John McCain in the battleground state of Colorado where he now leads 52% to 45%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.
Pennsylvannia possibly will go to John McCain now since the Secretary of State in Ohio is trying to steal the election for "O"bama in that state.
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Posted by bellschotsch at 05:23 PM : Oct 17, 2008
Many of these Republican papers
good for Ohio, that would help make up for Katherine Harris in Florida
his birth record was found.
news alert
his birth record was found.
news alert
Eni Faleomavaega is a member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. Faleomaveaga recently traveled to Indonesia to meet with government leaders, however while there he visited the school that Senator Obama attended when he was living abroad with his parents. Why would Faleomavaega visit Obama%u2019s school? According to Indonesian sources the officials that accompanied Faleomavaega wanted all the documentation, photographs of young Barry Soetoro and they offered cash and a lot of it. Obama%u2019s school received thousands of dollars for upgrades for the purchase of computer equipment and so forth from this junket and the documents were removed.
voter fraud is not fare.
voter fraud is not fare.
Who are Barry Obama?????????????????????
Who are your real friends Barry Obama???????
SATURDAY....EARLY VOTING....GREAT....I''LL VOTE TOMORROW THEN THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF POLITICAL SHENANIGANS AND GUTTERSNIPING AND NAME-CALLING CAN BE IGNORED....I''LL BE VOTING ON THE ISSUES FOR OBAMA/BIDEN ''08 ---Then I can help get other friends, neighbors, co-workers, family and acquaintances to the polls for the biggest turnout in national history we hope over the next two weeks---LET''S GET TO WORK!!
SATURDAY....EARLY VOTING....GREAT....I''LL VOTE TOMORROW THEN THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF POLITICAL SHENANIGANS AND GUTTERSNIPING AND NAME-CALLING CAN BE IGNORED....I''LL BE VOTING ON THE ISSUES FOR OBAMA/BIDEN ''08 ---Then I can help get other friends, neighbors, co-workers, family and acquaintances to the polls for the biggest turnout in national history we hope over the next two weeks---LET''S GET TO WORK!!
SATURDAY....EARLY VOTING....GREAT....I''LL VOTE TOMORROW THEN THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF POLITICAL SHENANIGANS AND GUTTERSNIPING AND NAME-CALLING CAN BE IGNORED....I''LL BE VOTING ON THE ISSUES FOR OBAMA/BIDEN ''08 ---Then I can help get other friends, neighbors, co-workers, family and acquaintances to the polls for the biggest turnout in national history we hope over the next two weeks---LET''S GET TO WORK!!
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