Obama Widens Lead In 4 Key Swing States

Washington Post Poll: Democrat Leads McCain By At Least Nine Points In Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin And Colorado

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Chris Cillizza.

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Barack Obama widened his lead considerably over John McCain in four key battleground states during the past three weeks, providing further evidence that the economic crisis has greatly enhanced the Democrat's advantage with just 21 days left before Election Day.

Obama holds double-digit margins over McCain in Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin and carries a nine-point advantage over his Republican rival in Colorado, according to polling conducted by Quinnipiac University for washingtonpost.com and the Wall Street Journal.

Obama's ascendancy in these key states mirrors his growing lead in national polling. The latest Washington Post/ABC News survey put Obama at 53 percent to McCain's 43 percent, while the daily Gallup tracking poll showed Obama holding a similar lead of 51 percent to 41 percent on Monday.

The latest polling confirms that the financial crisis and stock market crash that has gripped Wall Street and Washington over the past month has increased the importance of economic matters to voters -- particularly in the industrial Midwest -- and accrued almost exclusively to Obama's benefit.

In Michigan, more than six in ten voters said the economy was the "single most important issue" in deciding their vote. Among likely voters, Obama increased his lead over McCain from a four-point edge in a late September Quinnipiac poll to a whopping 16-point lead in the most recent survey.

Obama's 54 percent to 38 percent lead in Michigan helps to explain why McCain decided to pull down his ads and pull out the majority of his campaign staff from the Wolverine State last week -- choosing to fight, instead, in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine.

The data was similar in Wisconsin and Minnesota where Obama gained 10 points and nine points, respectively, in his margin over McCain since the September Quinnipiac poll; the Illinois senator led McCain in Wisconsin 54 percent to 37 percent, and held a 51 percent to 40 percent edge in Minnesota.

In both states, 58 percent of the sample cited the economy as the leading issue affecting their vote -- nearly six times as many as named any other issue. The Wisconsin number represents a significant shift from the seven-point advantage the Quinnipiac poll showed for Obama in the Badger State in the third week of September. It also stands in contrast to other recent poll data, including a CNN/Time poll done earlier this month, that showed Obama leading 51 percent to 46 percent.

The surveys also indicate that Obama is significantly more trusted on economic issues than McCain. In Wisconsin, 53 percent said Obama "better understands the economy" while just 32 percent chose McCain. The numbers were not much better in Michigan (52 percent Obama/35 percent McCain), Minnesota (49/34) or Colorado (51/39).

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A majority of voters in each state said McCain had not shown "effective leadership" in dealing with the financial meltdown. Throughout the past several weeks, McCain has condemned financial executives on Wall Street, offered a few proposed remedies for the crisis, and briefly suspended his campaign to return to Washington to take part in White House talks over a $700 billion rescue plan.

McCain also is being badly hamstrung by a national political environment tipped heavily against his party. Just one in four voters in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin approve of the job President Bush is doing -- a number reflected in the Post/ABC News national poll where just 23 percent of voters voiced approval for Bush's performance.

For all of the media focus on the presidential debates -- the third and last of which will be held tomorrow at Hofstra University in New York -- the encounters seem to have had little effect in persuading voters.

In each of the four states, between 71 percent and 75 percent of voters said they watched the second presidential debate in Nashville, Tenn., last Tuesday night. And yet, in each of the four states more than eight in ten voters said the debate did not change their vote.

Nearly half of the voters in each state thought Obama had done a better job in the Nashville debate while less than one in five voters said McCain had won the debate.

The Republican problems in these four battleground states weren't limited to the top of the ticket.

In Colorado's open seat Senate race, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall holds a commanding 54 percent to 40 percent lead over former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer. In Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) has slipped into a dead heat with his Democratic opponent Al Franken; Franken stands at 38 percent to 36 percent for Coleman and 18 percent for independent candidate Dean Barkley.

The polls were conducted from Oct. 8-12. The sample sizes were: 1,019 likely voters in Minnesota, 1,201 likely voters in Wisconsin, 1,088 likely voters in Colorado and 1,043 likely voters in Michigan. Each has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Get background data on each of these states, plus read the latest news from CBS News and around the Web: Colorado | Michigan | Minnesota | Wisconsin

[claydowner]

Rightwingers have nothing right now except hate, lies, and fear. They have no policies for unemployment, getting us off of foreign oil, or for ending the wars in Iraq or Afghanstan. The Republicans have caused the biggest budget deficits, trade deficits, and increased our national debt to $11.4 trillion. They have given huge tax breaks to the top 2% of families including Big Oil companies.
They have no record on the economy so they change it to hate mongering, fear, and smearing of Senator Obama''s good character.

The Republicans need to put on their diapers because they are going to fill their pants after the returns come in on November 4th. The Senate has a strong possibility of getting 60 votes for Democrats. EAT YOUR HEART OUR RIGHT WINGED REPUBLICANS YOU ARE GOING TO LOSE AND LOSE BIG ON NOVEMBER 4TH. SUCK IT UP AND DEAL WITH IT BECAUSE WE ARE ALL SICK AND TIRED OF DEALING WITH YOUR STUPID WARS, DEFICITS, AND DEREGULATED FINANCIAL BAILOUTS FOR WALL STREET FAT CATS. MAIN STREET IS GOING TO GET SOME JUSTICE FOR A CHANGE.

[brendama]

Liers lie.

[jonny55155]

Stop BO he just stinks. He has no roots to this country.

[dbaecht]

"Do you want experience and ability or a good speaker? McCain/Palin is the only real choice for change in the country.

Posted by mycommentspg"

Yes this is right, if you want go in the wrong direction.

McSenile/Palinoccio= Down the drain

Obama/Biden= Return to Greatness

[abman827]

Do you want experience and ability or a good speaker? McCain/Palin is the only real choice for change in the country.


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Posted by mycommentspg at 10:22 AM : Oct 15, 2008

Agreed 100%.

[mycommentspg]

Do you want experience and ability or a good speaker? McCain/Palin is the only real choice for change in the country.

[tannerbird]

Sunny i want some of those drugs you are on where do you get the stuff.

[tannerbird]

John McCain would be a nobody if not for his father and grandfather and Cindy and her money not his but hers. Take some time go to YOU TUBE just check out McCain. Have a open mind and you will learn a few things.

[pthinker]

Senator McCain commited a strategic blunder when he picked Sara Palin.From all that we have been reading and seeing on tv I strongly believe Palin is a serious liability to the McCain campaign than asset.

[anya136]

I demand to know why Sarah Palin lied so blatantly about what was in the troopergate report?

It said she abused her power and violated an ethics law.

She said that it said she had done nothing ethically wrong.

Why did she lie?

[jeffrey_schf]

I understand Sarah Palin has a degree in communications. From what she ''s been putting out lately, she definitely has a B.A. in BS! With all that being spread around, no wonder McCain & Palin are falling behind in the polls!

[smurfcrusher]

politically, the Republicans are doomed.

Poor choice after poor choice is not only bad for the country, but bad for a campaign too!

Expect more bad news about darling Sarah.

[incog-nito]

I CAN DREAM, CAN''T I?

Posted by jaeschneeman at 11:15 PM : Oct 14, 2008

Yes you can dream. Keep on dreaming.

[pensacola98]

Barak Obama has beed attacking problems the country is forced to solve since Oct 2007. He noted problems with foreign policy, the economy, and the influence of lobbyists and PACs who cloud the visions of our elected officials.

In the start, John McCain was polite and civil, but went negative to direct attacks against Barack Obama. Here recently, McCain tempered the attacks and went back to issues.

Joe Biden has exhibited a shrewd and commanding presence in both his campaigns and debates. He is the definition of tough stuff, and Barack Obama picked him to challenge him and keep him centered. Good tactic and strategy!! Obama showed his willingness to be challenged and use experts around him.

Sarah Palin fired up the McCain campaign with enthusiasm, and then quickly derailed herself with a series of bad interviews, a finding of guilt over ethics violations in Troopergate, but she did perform very good in a highly controlled debate with Joe Biden. Most felt there was a box of kleenex in her boxing gloves as she gave Obama some cushy blows which showed the county why Republicans were afraid of Hillary Clinton.

[newbie43]

I would like to see the Democrats top these facts! I was extremely overwhelmed when John chose Sarah and very much satisfied with his choice!
Posted by sunnyjaye80

Oh, we were all overwhelmed when he chose Palin - but not in a good way. A mayor of a 7,000 population city, and now it turns out that her vaunted 12 million hockey rink (can anyone say earmarks) brought her a brand new house by the same contractor for free! (Can anyone say bribe?) Corruption as governor - but she''s supposed to clean up Washington? 5 sweet kids - except the oldest son had a drug problem, and Sarah''s wonderful mothering included ''just say no'' and nothing else, and we all know how successful that was. Member of the PTA - heck I was president of the PTA, den mother for all 3 of my boys, treasurer of the pack, and manager of their little league teams. Therefore, I have executive AND economic experience - I should run for president.

[mailani808]

Sarah Palin is a complete hypocrite. She makes zero effort to quiet hecklers at her rallies as they yell ugly death threats in Obama. She not only does nothing to stop them - she incites them with her lies. She is ugly and thoroughly despicable. Shame on you. Go back to church and learn what it means to have moral character.

[jerr11]

I was extremely overwhelmed when John chose Sarah and very much satisfied with his choice!

Posted by sunnyjaye80 at 12:03 AM : Oct 15, 2008



Me too, I like hockey moms and former beauty queens.

If I ever needed a doctor to operate on me, I''ll make sure it''s a hockey mom with a winning smile and a "you betcha" wink!

Sure makes me feel better to know I''m in good hands!

[jerr11]

Obama has things hidden in his past that is coming out and it does scare me to think what he might if he is voted in. Thanks.

Posted by indreb at 11:59 PM : Oct 14, 2008



Heck I''m more afraid of what McCain will do if voted in.

He''s just another SPEND AND SPEND republican.

No new taxes.

No sirree, we''ll just dump our national debt on our children and grandchildren.

Compare fiscal conservative Bush''s record:

$10 trillion debt in 8 years!!

That takes some doing!

Heckuva job, Bush!!

And vote for McCain for $20 trillion national debt!!

[sunnyjaye80]

I wanted to comment on John MCCain''s selection for a vice president. Sarah Palin is one of the most talented young mothers in this Country,if not in the World. At 44 she has been a successful mayor of a city, a successful Governor of a state and a very
successful mother of five sweet children. These positions more than qualifies her to be a vice president of these United States.
She is also qualified to take over the position of President if anything should happen to John. I would like to see the Democrats top these facts! I was extremely overwhelmed when John chose Sarah and very much satisfied with his choice!

[indreb]

Roachcrusher: I am a registered republican, but I have to say I am far from a racist or a lier. Obama has things hidden in his past that is coming out and it does scare me to think what he might if he is voted in. Thanks.