Oct. 14, 2008
Obama Widens Lead In 4 Key Swing States
Washington Post Poll: Democrat Leads McCain By At Least Nine Points In Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin And Colorado
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The Electoral Map Doesn't Lie
The latest look at the electoral map shows Barack Obama is gaining ground in some historically Republican states. Jeff Greenfield explains what John McCain might have to do to stop Obama's momentum.
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Barack Obama widened his lead considerably over John McCain in four key battleground states during the past three weeks, providing further evidence that the economic crisis has greatly enhanced the Democrat's advantage with just 21 days left before Election Day.
Obama holds double-digit margins over McCain in Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin and carries a nine-point advantage over his Republican rival in Colorado, according to polling conducted by Quinnipiac University for washingtonpost.com and the Wall Street Journal.
Obama's ascendancy in these key states mirrors his growing lead in national polling. The latest Washington Post/ABC News survey put Obama at 53 percent to McCain's 43 percent, while the daily Gallup tracking poll showed Obama holding a similar lead of 51 percent to 41 percent on Monday.
The latest polling confirms that the financial crisis and stock market crash that has gripped Wall Street and Washington over the past month has increased the importance of economic matters to voters -- particularly in the industrial Midwest -- and accrued almost exclusively to Obama's benefit.
In Michigan, more than six in ten voters said the economy was the "single most important issue" in deciding their vote. Among likely voters, Obama increased his lead over McCain from a four-point edge in a late September Quinnipiac poll to a whopping 16-point lead in the most recent survey.
Obama's 54 percent to 38 percent lead in Michigan helps to explain why McCain decided to pull down his ads and pull out the majority of his campaign staff from the Wolverine State last week -- choosing to fight, instead, in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine.
The data was similar in Wisconsin and Minnesota where Obama gained 10 points and nine points, respectively, in his margin over McCain since the September Quinnipiac poll; the Illinois senator led McCain in Wisconsin 54 percent to 37 percent, and held a 51 percent to 40 percent edge in Minnesota.
In both states, 58 percent of the sample cited the economy as the leading issue affecting their vote -- nearly six times as many as named any other issue. The Wisconsin number represents a significant shift from the seven-point advantage the Quinnipiac poll showed for Obama in the Badger State in the third week of September. It also stands in contrast to other recent poll data, including a CNN/Time poll done earlier this month, that showed Obama leading 51 percent to 46 percent.
The surveys also indicate that Obama is significantly more trusted on economic issues than McCain. In Wisconsin, 53 percent said Obama "better understands the economy" while just 32 percent chose McCain. The numbers were not much better in Michigan (52 percent Obama/35 percent McCain), Minnesota (49/34) or Colorado (51/39).
A majority of voters in each state said McCain had not shown "effective leadership" in dealing with the financial meltdown. Throughout the past several weeks, McCain has condemned financial executives on Wall Street, offered a few proposed remedies for the crisis, and briefly suspended his campaign to return to Washington to take part in White House talks over a $700 billion rescue plan.Ways To Win
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McCain also is being badly hamstrung by a national political environment tipped heavily against his party. Just one in four voters in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin approve of the job President Bush is doing -- a number reflected in the Post/ABC News national poll where just 23 percent of voters voiced approval for Bush's performance.
For all of the media focus on the presidential debates -- the third and last of which will be held tomorrow at Hofstra University in New York -- the encounters seem to have had little effect in persuading voters.
In each of the four states, between 71 percent and 75 percent of voters said they watched the second presidential debate in Nashville, Tenn., last Tuesday night. And yet, in each of the four states more than eight in ten voters said the debate did not change their vote.
Nearly half of the voters in each state thought Obama had done a better job in the Nashville debate while less than one in five voters said McCain had won the debate.
The Republican problems in these four battleground states weren't limited to the top of the ticket.
In Colorado's open seat Senate race, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall holds a commanding 54 percent to 40 percent lead over former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer. In Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) has slipped into a dead heat with his Democratic opponent Al Franken; Franken stands at 38 percent to 36 percent for Coleman and 18 percent for independent candidate Dean Barkley.
The polls were conducted from Oct. 8-12. The sample sizes were: 1,019 likely voters in Minnesota, 1,201 likely voters in Wisconsin, 1,088 likely voters in Colorado and 1,043 likely voters in Michigan. Each has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Get background data on each of these states, plus read the latest news from CBS News and around the Web: Colorado | Michigan | Minnesota | Wisconsin
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
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See all 550 CommentsOBAMA/BIDEN 08 the only intelligent and logical choice for the USA!!!!!
We have no choice but to vote for McCain!!
Posted by GrabAndGo
We? I have a choice and that choice will not be GOP this time. By the way, the train wreck you speak off is the one we are in right now so I figure Obama can only help. He most definitely cannot do as bad as the current POTUS and McCain should be disqualified for just the remote chance of Palin being promoted into the job which would really be more than just a train wreck but a EARTHQUAKE!!
In just 8 short years, Republicans have accomplished what no terrorist ever could.
They''ve bankrupted the country and brought the economy to it''s knees.
Stay the course with John McSame?
Thanks but no thanks!
We have no choice but to vote for McCain!! ''
hey armydog2... the train wreck has already happened... bush has been sleeping at the wheel for the last 8 years. i hope bush does not completely sink us in just the last few months he has - can''t someone just take the white house keys from him?? he has no buisness there anymore.
and i still say those who voted for bush twice should pay double taxes to pay for this bailout - and all the other screw ups our brainless leader is responsible for.
Um, didn''t you see the train wreck that lasted the last 8 years? Hello, take off your blinders !
The Demoturd Party of America will eventually be the destroyers of this nation.
The GOP at best can only serve as a temporary impedance.....There is no way to reverse the influence of liberalism.
For you see, the same exact struggle has been defined since the days before Moses.
It has always been a struggle between the imoral pagans, and those of us who prefer to live among morally solid.
But, we all know imorality serves as a far more attractive aphrodisiac to the lazy and the young.
Posted by BO_SBD at 10:45 AM : Oct 14, 2008
Now for all you Kiddies out there THIS is the best example I have seen in a LONG time as to why YOU need to stay in School. READ your HISTORY books and as you read take NOTE that ALL our greatest leaders are those this poor fool trashes. The "Greatest Generation"? The one that won WW II?? THE most LIBERAL since the first. The FIRST one wasn''t just LIBERAL according to the Church of England and the King. Oh NO! They were RADICALLY Liberal! Yep that''s right kiddies LIBERALS created this nation.... now I wonder who''s side this loser is really on??
Those who think they have an arm-lock on morality -- and that God favors their political views -- are in for a rude afterlife.
Posted by doorgunner2 at 10:48 AM : Oct 14, 2008
Yep you can bank on that... just ask all those "Born Again" Christian''s who taught "Equal but Different" to School Kids in the 40''s and 50''s!
LOL YOU think LINCOLN was a Conservative?? YOU think the present day Republican Party and all their KLAN influences represent LINCOLN? What are you smoking Sparky... I need some of that today!!
What a nutcase. Visit a doctor and do it soon.
For the America we grew up in will exist, no longer.
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Posted by BO_SBD at 10:54 AM : Oct 14, 2008
Judas Priest guy, get a grip. This isn''t about race, it''s about who can handle our country''s affairs best and that is Obama HANDS DOWN!
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Posted by Upto1947 at 10:56 AM : Oct 14, 2008
Your personal "racism" shows through out your post. you''re a bigot and best fess up.
I want her to be VP just to see the kind of mess she will cause in the whitehouse.
http://www.myfoxtoledo.com/myfox/MyFox/pages/sidebar_video.jsp?contentId=7637919&version=1&locale=EN-US
''I%u2019m very very pleased to be cleared of any legal wrongdoing, any hint of any kind of unethical activity there.'' - Palin 10/12
Page 8, Finding Number One of the report says: %u201CGovernor Sarah Palin abused her power by violating Alaska Statute 39.52.110(a) of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act.%u201D
What is it with Republicans and accountability? Here is it, in black and white stating clearly she is guilty of ethical violation and she says just the oppostite!
What''s great is that it''s looking like the report SHE requested and is being done by her people might ALSO find her guilty of ethical lapses. And, as I understand it, it is expanding to include other possible violations.
McCain - drop this woman. She is a boat anchor and a total joke. What were you thinking?
Republicans started out as the party against slavery but slowly turned into the party of big business. Nothing is more important than big business. They''ve just used their minions (former democrats who were for slavery) to get them to vote against their own self-interests.
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Posted by BO_SBD at 11:09 AM : Oct 14, 2008
Not at all. The closest thing to facism we''ve experienced has been the Bush administration. His "divide and conquer" policies have polarized our country like none before him. "If you''re not with us, you''re against us" pretty much isolated half of the nation and his abuse of power was allowed unchecked for 6 years. Fascism? Check the dictionary, George W''s face should be staring out at you!
OMG! That''s who you are. The hyphenated American guy who is always angry. Did you get booted off? Is that why you changed your name?
Did you used to have another user name? If so, are you from Travis county?
They can''''t win without the cooperation of people with fully functioning intellects and a self centered economic agenda and that''''s not going to happen this time.
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Posted by Mcliar at 11:03 AM : Oct 14, 2008
Really? Every successful person I know is a Republican. Every loser i know is a Democrat. Media celebs and Hollywood celebs are the only Libs that can pay their bills. I agree with you on one thing, 60 percent of the population are whiners and losers and you seem proud to be one of them. Obama''s base is people like you, loser. Promises, promises. What are you going to do when he does not deliver? Who will you blame? Will you look in the mirror?
Every statistic shows that Obama is having trouble attracting uneducated hicks. That''s McCain''s base.
Republicans: 2% super rich, 98% super idiots.
Posted by notblue
Wrong.
Sorry to break it to ya...Jesus was a lib
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Posted by BO_SBD at 11:23 AM
You''re so funny! Ha ha! Good ones! Quit your day job and take up night comedy, seriously.
...So you admit to being a member of the un-American among us?? I seriously doubt it will be anywhere close to "half" you so wishfully hope it to be.
Might you also be a member of these African nationalist who were actually born here in America, and Barak Obama is currently leading in an attempted coup??
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Posted by BO_SBD at 11:20 AM : Oct 14, 2008
Rowdy, get a life! This election is virtually over and McCain is toast. And you know dam well that I have been almost totally against Bush from day one, just like you!
Because Jesus would say, "Let the children starve."
or
"If their parents can''t afford to give them a good education, tough love."
or
"Why should CEO give up his third yacht, so he doesn''t have to layoff so many employees? You''re not the CEO is because you are a loser."
The failure of the present economy helped folks
to open up their eyes and pocketbooks to see what
is happening in the present administration and
they don''t want four more years of this.
Also, the undecided voters don''t want anything to do
with the Name Calling and Evilness that seems to have overtaken the Republican Party.
Palin was shiny in the beginning, but the alure has
faded. She has proven to be what was said about her Alaska dealings. She was found guilty and then goes on to say.."I am glad I was cleared". Where does she get this idea that she was cleared? Palin was found to have violated the law. It was 9 Republicans and 4 Deomcrats that made that decision.
Posted by BO_SBD at 11:14 AM : Oct 14, 2008
Delusional much? The only target you''re hitting is the one in your mouth by firmly placing your foot there. You''re just another bed-wetting redneck who couldn''t fight his way out of a paper bag, much less articulate a sound argument. Why don''t you go back to surfing the net for porn? It will be more gratifying for you.
Jesus said those without sin cast the first stone.
Most abortions are spontaneous also...meaning they happen without any medical intervention.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/13/campbell.brown.obama/index.html
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Posted by notblue at 11:25 AM
Wasn''t he accused of doing nearly just that when he ate and drink with the lowest people of society?
it''s not going to be Obama or McCain.
Here in south west Ohio, not in Alaska or elsewhere, is where the rapture will happen on 11/04/2008.
The forces at work are implacable, just watch:
http://www.eastsideonline.cc/
ICS/10/13/campbell.brown.obama/index.htm
l
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Posted by RepForBarack at 11:28 AM : Oct 14, 2008
I read her byline earlier; it''s a good one and she''s right on target.
So what do you think of his friendship with G. Gordon Liddy?
Jesus was a liberal.
Pontius Pilate was a conservative.
Just keep in mind....You neo-Marxist, hyphenated-American, pudsucking, Obama is my messiah worshipping Demotards who can offer nothing more than nasty shots at me.....
You know, you pervert worshippers who are incapable of offering valid rebuttal.
You can continue excreting from between your sphincter lips, for it does nothing more than assures me I am hitting my target.
ROTFLMBAO!!!!
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Posted by BO_SBD at 11:31 AM : Oct 14, 2008"
McCain resurrected the Neanderthal.
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