Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain

CBS News/New York Times Survey Shows Major Swing Among Independents, Suggests McCain's Strategy May Be Hurting Him

(CBS) 
Obama holds a more than 20-point edge when it comes to understanding voters' needs and problems, with 64 percent saying Obama does and 43 percent saying McCain does.

The Republican nominee does hold a clear advantage on being seen as prepared to be president, as he has throughout the campaign. That measure does not appear to be boosting his support, however, perhaps because while 64 percent say McCain is prepared for the job, more than half say Obama is as well.

Just 7 percent of registered voters say their opinion of McCain has improved recently, while 21 percent say it has gotten worse. The numbers are nearly reversed for Obama: Seventeen percent say their opinion of Obama has improved in recent weeks, while 7 percent say it has declined.

Obama now enjoys leads over McCain with both men (53 percent to 41 percent) and women (52 percent to 37 percent). Eighty-two percent of voters who backed Hillary Clinton in the primaries now say they will back Obama - up from 67 percent last week and the highest number to date.

McCain still leads among Republicans, conservatives and white evangelicals, but the race is now roughly even among whites, a group McCain led 54 percent to 39 percent last week.

With voter registration up in many key states this year, 63 percent of those casting a ballot for first time in 2008 are backing Obama.

The Debates And The Candidates' Past Associations

Seven in 10 registered voters said they watched last week’s presidential debate, and, looking back, 57 percent of debate watchers said Obama won the contest. Just 18 percent saw the debate as a McCain victory.

Expectations are high for Obama in Wednesday's third and final debate, which 65 percent of registered voters say they are very likely to watch. Nearly half of all registered voters expect Obama will win the debate, while just 19 percent expect McCain to win.

Recently, the McCain campaign has gone after Obama about his relationship with former Weather Underground member Bill Ayers, and McCain has signaled that he will mention Ayers in the debate.

One in three voters say they have heard "a lot" about Ayers, and 31 percent say they have heard something about him, though far fewer - 9 percent - say the association bothers them.

Four percent of voters say that it bothers them that Obama is a Muslim, which he is not. Fifty-six percent say nothing about Obama’s past bothers them.

As for the Republican candidate, seven in ten voters say nothing about McCain’s past bothers them. Four percent mention the Keating Five scandal that McCain was involved in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

A majority of registered voters believe the tone of the 2008 campaign has been about the same as in past years. Thirty percent say it has been more negative, while 15 percent say it has been more positive.

Democrats, Republicans, And The 2008 House Vote

Americans have a much higher opinion of the Democratic Party than the Republican Party. A majority - 52 percent - have a favorable opinion of the Democrats, while far less - 37 percent - have a favorable opinion of Republicans.

The Democratic Party is seen as more likely than the Republican Party to make the right decision on health care (55 percent to 18 percent), the economy (47 percent to 29 percent), and the war in Iraq (44 percent to 37 percent).

And when it comes to the House Of Representatives, 48 percent of likely voters say they will be choosing the Democratic candidate in November, compared to 34 percent who plan to vote for the Republican candidate.

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This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1070 adults nationwide, including 972 registered voters, interviewed by telephone October 10-13, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.

[strokesurv1]

McCain''s answer in the VP question was very telling. He didn''t mention anything Sarah Palin would do as a VP that required any intelligence. He totally lost me when Palin was picked, his first big decision was a total failure. Her junk-yard dog attacks don''t tell me anything about what McCain is going to do. Drop her if you want a chance at independent voters.

[noloyalisti]

No matter what the polls say, don''t stop until the election. We are dealing with slime wad, low life Republicon criminals and enemies of the people. McCain, Bush, Cheney, Rove and their ilk will stop at nothing to lie, cheat, kill and steal.

[missingamerica]

IF you make over $364,657, your paying for someone else''s benefits. If you make less, someone else is helping you. If you made less than less than $250K and got a $1200 refund check, you really lost $3600 in federal revenue benefits. For every refund dollar, 95% of the people got to split 33 cents, while 5% got to split 66 cents. A fifth grader would tell you that''s a lousy deal.
No wonder McCain is pandering to the Joe six pack. Ignorance really is bliss.


Posted by abro915 at 12:17 PM : Oct 16, 2008

That stuff - in fact, anything about the incomes and taxes paid by the top economic quintile - would be a lot easier to believe if it were not a documented fact that 66% of our corporations have gone 5 straight years without paying any taxes at all - and those wealthy elite who own and run those corporations have access to precisely the same set of tax lawyers and accountants.

Hiding income in the U.S. of A. is a mega-billion dollar industry.

Any quotatations about who is carrying the tax load are suspect, at best.

[abro915]

ARE YOU SMARTER THAN A FIFTH GRADER?
"The top-earning 25 percent of taxpayers -- those with an Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) over $62,068 -- earned 67.5 percent of nation''s income, but they paid more than 4 out of every 5 dollars collected by the federal income tax (86 percent).
The top 1 percent of taxpayers (AGI over $364,657) earned approximately 21.2 percent of the nation''s income (as defined by AGI), yet paid 39.4 percent of all federal income taxes.
That means the top 1 percent paid about the same amount of federal individual income taxes as the bottom 95 percent."
IF you make over $364,657, your paying for someone else''s benefits. If you make less, someone else is helping you. If you made less than less than $250K and got a $1200 refund check, you really lost $3600 in federal revenue benefits. For every refund dollar, 95% of the people got to split 33 cents, while 5% got to split 66 cents. A fifth grader would tell you that''s a lousy deal.
No wonder McCain is pandering to the Joe six pack. Ignorance really is bliss.

[missingamerica]

But will the Republicans learn anything?

Will the Republicans gain the wisdom to understand that favoring the few at the expense of the many is counterproductive in the long run?

Will the Republicans learn that a reputation for honesty, once lost, is a terribly difficult thing to regain?

Will the Republicans learn that condoning lies, slurs, and smears in order to gain political advantage is the surest way to paint themselves as corrupt and untrustworthy?

I doubt it...look at what the RNC trolls continue to post here, day after day after day.

I am afraid that the Republicans as a Party have chosen to commit political suicide rather than let ethics, morality, and patriotism come between themselves and wealth accumulation.

[lawrence1955-2009]

McCain might be angry but he has good reason to be. The democrats are the ones that got us into this economic mess and they think another democrat is going to get us out of it???? Look at Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, etc. and their views on regulating Fannie Mae and Freddie. They thought they were just fine. These people are all democrats, all crooks. Also look who ACORN is endorsing--doesn''t that tell you anything?????????? By the way, think about this, are you better off than you were two years ago--before the democrats took over Congress.

[ss99999]

I am sick of hearing that McCain is an angry man. Give me a break!

[lawrence1955-2009]

People say Obama won the debate last night! What??? Even though he is a LAWYER and should know how to give a good speech and lie through his teeth in my book he lost. What lawyer do you know that isn''t able to lie with a straight face? There are some good lawyers I''m sure but most of them are bigger crooks than the ones they defend. ACORN!! So NOBAMA for this guy. He would be the worse candidate for my small business. I''d have to close up shop. Wake up people!! Most of America will be out of work with an Obama presidency. All the business owners I know will be closing their door and none of us are rich, we just live comfortably but so do the people that work for us. Redistribution of wealth doesn''t work. PERIOD!!! It''s just another welfare program the US can''t afford.

[questionnews]

Barrack & Michelle must not talk much or she doesn''t follow the news. The main page has the article were she says Barrack is the underdog. With Barrack''s poll lead???
She must really suck at the football office pool if she thinks hubby is the underdog.

Barrack could go on vacation from now to the election & he would still win.

[floridamom31]

To quote one of the pundits last night responding to the debate was quite refreshing, I was left "enlightened" by the remark,"Obama won the debate because he "looked" all presidential". Well, I had to fire back at that person and remind them of how stupid they were lest they forgot. It is most reassuring to know that since Obama "looks all presidential" that all of our problems will be a thing of the past including all economic woes, global warning, energy problems, racial problems, educational, military and health-care problems because Obama "looks good"...and another qualification that Obama possesses; he stayed at a Holiday Inn.

The reason I started paying attention to Obama and decided that I did not want to vote or him was because of his wife. The first time that I heard her speak and spew her venom, I made my mind up then that whether Barack would be a great president or not it was his wife that would not be a great president''''s wife. She needs to keep it to herself. She is not on the ticket and is a bad representation for her husband. We don''''t need more pot stirers in the white house...we need someone that has the leadership ability to lead this nation and the experience, neither of which Obama has. Looking good and talking good is not all we need at this time. Obama, the underdog, I THINK NOT!!!

[daffy64]

Obama showed he is a thoughtful and reasoning man and incredibly cool under pressure. McCain showed that he''s emotional, snippy, and has a bad temper. It almost looked like his eyes were glowing red at a couple of moments. Between him and his terrible choice of Sarah Palin, I''d say that ticket is toast.

[miggon]

The people who scream loudest about "socialism" and "communism" and conspiracies and "taking back America" and "freedom" always seem to misspell more words than those who espouse fair and balanced -- yes, even nuanced -- views regarding the candidates'' positions and, as appropriate, professional credentials. Let''s go along with the "small government" idea for a minute. So, if the Federal Government got out of the entitlement business once and for all, who on earth would administer relief and training programs to Americans in need? Who? Volunteers. That''s right. Yes. And who would organize those volunteers into a workforce that actually delivers services to the people they serve? Who? Grassroots community organizers! So just think about what it is you really want the Federal Government to do for you. Think about what it means to push everything the Federal Government does for you to the local and/or state level. Highways, roads, bridges, schools, community colleges, unemployment compensation insurance, immunizations, interstate commerce, small business loans, TIF grants, community centers, after school programs, day care so Moms can work ... who on EARTH will ADMINISTER these services to PEOPLE in YOUR community?!?! If your answer is "my church." Then you are not recognizing the ENORMITY of 305 MILLION AMERICANS living in these UNITED STATES. So let''s drop the BS and talk about what it takes - REALLY - to administer programs that keep America strong and growing.

[lucite53]

McCain is such an angry man. If you muted your volume on your TV and watched the two candidates, Obama clearly won. I cannot invision McCain sitting at a table with international leaders. My pledged to myself after lasy nights debate, remove all anger from my life, it is much too ugly

[babooph]

John''s a great guy,but too old & whaco Palin in the breech is untenable.

[brave08]

I am very WIDE awake that is why I am VOTING for
OBAMA. How good he handles Mccain attack and Palin.
God forbid if mccain wins his just one breath away
I will not trust this country to Palin. Go check-out
Salon.com then who is unpatriotic.Palin/Mccain all they will do is firing people left and right.Do you like THAT?.......

[brave08]

EDUCATION, it depends on the person.I have 2 children
and naturalized both my kids goes to public school
and intelligent. Guess some state dont have good
teachers.In our state somewhere in Florida have high
standard of public school.Now thats why i want and
also SUPPORT CHANGE for BARACK OBAMA,because listening to the debate His got good ideas.

[brave08]

Fortunately Obama gain more # in poll.I will trust his
idea and good things he is planning for America.We dont need another 4 more years.Obama is a cool,calm
and very decent professional person. As a president
and candidate,its not right to inject anger,negative
ideas to people who dont understand what is BIG problem here IS ECONOMY,this need to be fix,not ayers
acorn . I have a very good job and hard and secure but
i feel sorry for people who can''t HOLD there job NOW
and if Mccain wins,you will get a BIG surprise.It is
very EASY and simple his healthcare and taxes and I DONT LIKE IT.....

[votergrl]

NOBAMA is unqualified and unfit to lead the united states of america! Ayres, Acorn, Fannie Mae.. get out the vote.. Vote MCCAIN/ PALIN!!

[votergrl]

who is vera baker?

[fedup08]

With the lack of Sen. Obama''s experience do you think he can handle a headline like: The Asian markets plummets: Toyko lost more than 10%; Japan 9.6%; Hong Kong 6%; S. Korea 7.2%; Australia 6.3%; Singapore 6%.
Because ladies and gentlemen, this is the headlines for this A.M. Our market started this yesterday and it will plummet more today. With our market down and Sen. Obama wanting to RAISE TAXES, where in ''Sam Hill" do you think we will go with him as President?