Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain

CBS News/New York Times Survey Shows Major Swing Among Independents, Suggests McCain's Strategy May Be Hurting Him

(CBS)  Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is entering the third and final presidential debate Wednesday with a wide lead over Republican rival John McCain nationally, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows.

The Obama-Biden ticket now leads the McCain-Palin ticket 53 percent to 39 percent among likely voters, a 14-point margin. One week ago, prior to the Town Hall debate that uncommitted voters saw as a win for Obama, that margin was just three points.

Among independents who are likely voters - a group that has swung back and forth between McCain and Obama over the course of the campaign - the Democratic ticket now leads by 18 points. McCain led among independents last week.

McCain's campaign strategy may be hurting hurt him: Twenty-one percent of voters say their opinion of the Republican has changed for the worse in the last few weeks. The top two reasons cited for the change of heart are McCain's attacks on Obama and his choice of Sarah Palin as running mate.

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Read The Complete CBS News/NY Times Poll On The Presidential Race

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Obama is widely seen as running the more positive campaign: Sixty-one percent of those surveyed say McCain is spending more time attacking his opponent than explaining what he would do as president. Just 27 percent say the same of Obama.

McCain's favorable rating has fallen four points from last week, to 36 percent, and is now lower than his 41 percent unfavorable rating. Obama, by contrast, is now viewed favorably by half of registered voters and unfavorably by just 32 percent.

Obama holds a considerable edge over his rival on having the right "personality and temperament" to be president, with 69 percent saying Obama does and 53 percent saying McCain does. The Democratic nominee is also widely seen as more likely to make the right decision on the economy, far and away the top issue for voters, in a survey taken in the immediate aftermath of last week's historic Wall Street losses.

Opinions of the candidates could still change, and potential trouble spots remain for Obama, among them the fact that small percentages of voters cite Obama's past associations with Bill Ayers (9 percent) and Reverend Jeremiah Wright (11 percent) as issues that bother them.

But with more than four out of five of each candidate’s supporters now saying their minds are made up, the poll suggests that McCain faces serious challenges as he looks to close the gap on his Democratic rival in the final three weeks of the campaign.

Views Of The Candidates

Obama's lead over McCain when it comes to the economy has grown since last week, and a majority of registered voters now say they are not confident in McCain to make the right decisions on economic issues. Thirty-nine percent are not confident in Obama.

There is, however, an opening for the candidates in this area: Fewer than one quarter are presently very confident in either Obama or McCain to make the right decisions on the economic crisis.

On raising taxes - an area where a Republican nominee might be expected to have an edge - Obama also leads. Despite the McCain campaign's efforts to cast Obama as a tax-raiser, more registered voters say McCain is likely to raise their taxes (51 percent) than say Obama will raise their taxes (46 percent).

Voters are almost three times more likely to be very confident in Obama when it comes to health care (28 percent) than McCain (10 percent). A majority of voters, 54 percent, are not confident in McCain to handle health care, while 33 percent are not confident in Obama.

McCain continues to be hurt by his perceived ties to the unpopular Republican president, George W. Bush, whose approval rating is 24 percent. More than half of registered voters surveyed say they expect McCain to continue Mr. Bush's economic policies if he is elected.

[strokesurv1]

McCain''s answer in the VP question was very telling. He didn''t mention anything Sarah Palin would do as a VP that required any intelligence. He totally lost me when Palin was picked, his first big decision was a total failure. Her junk-yard dog attacks don''t tell me anything about what McCain is going to do. Drop her if you want a chance at independent voters.

[noloyalisti]

No matter what the polls say, don''t stop until the election. We are dealing with slime wad, low life Republicon criminals and enemies of the people. McCain, Bush, Cheney, Rove and their ilk will stop at nothing to lie, cheat, kill and steal.

[missingamerica]

IF you make over $364,657, your paying for someone else''s benefits. If you make less, someone else is helping you. If you made less than less than $250K and got a $1200 refund check, you really lost $3600 in federal revenue benefits. For every refund dollar, 95% of the people got to split 33 cents, while 5% got to split 66 cents. A fifth grader would tell you that''s a lousy deal.
No wonder McCain is pandering to the Joe six pack. Ignorance really is bliss.


Posted by abro915 at 12:17 PM : Oct 16, 2008

That stuff - in fact, anything about the incomes and taxes paid by the top economic quintile - would be a lot easier to believe if it were not a documented fact that 66% of our corporations have gone 5 straight years without paying any taxes at all - and those wealthy elite who own and run those corporations have access to precisely the same set of tax lawyers and accountants.

Hiding income in the U.S. of A. is a mega-billion dollar industry.

Any quotatations about who is carrying the tax load are suspect, at best.

[abro915]

ARE YOU SMARTER THAN A FIFTH GRADER?
"The top-earning 25 percent of taxpayers -- those with an Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) over $62,068 -- earned 67.5 percent of nation''s income, but they paid more than 4 out of every 5 dollars collected by the federal income tax (86 percent).
The top 1 percent of taxpayers (AGI over $364,657) earned approximately 21.2 percent of the nation''s income (as defined by AGI), yet paid 39.4 percent of all federal income taxes.
That means the top 1 percent paid about the same amount of federal individual income taxes as the bottom 95 percent."
IF you make over $364,657, your paying for someone else''s benefits. If you make less, someone else is helping you. If you made less than less than $250K and got a $1200 refund check, you really lost $3600 in federal revenue benefits. For every refund dollar, 95% of the people got to split 33 cents, while 5% got to split 66 cents. A fifth grader would tell you that''s a lousy deal.
No wonder McCain is pandering to the Joe six pack. Ignorance really is bliss.

[missingamerica]

But will the Republicans learn anything?

Will the Republicans gain the wisdom to understand that favoring the few at the expense of the many is counterproductive in the long run?

Will the Republicans learn that a reputation for honesty, once lost, is a terribly difficult thing to regain?

Will the Republicans learn that condoning lies, slurs, and smears in order to gain political advantage is the surest way to paint themselves as corrupt and untrustworthy?

I doubt it...look at what the RNC trolls continue to post here, day after day after day.

I am afraid that the Republicans as a Party have chosen to commit political suicide rather than let ethics, morality, and patriotism come between themselves and wealth accumulation.

[lawrence1955-2009]

McCain might be angry but he has good reason to be. The democrats are the ones that got us into this economic mess and they think another democrat is going to get us out of it???? Look at Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, etc. and their views on regulating Fannie Mae and Freddie. They thought they were just fine. These people are all democrats, all crooks. Also look who ACORN is endorsing--doesn''t that tell you anything?????????? By the way, think about this, are you better off than you were two years ago--before the democrats took over Congress.

[ss99999]

I am sick of hearing that McCain is an angry man. Give me a break!

[lawrence1955-2009]

People say Obama won the debate last night! What??? Even though he is a LAWYER and should know how to give a good speech and lie through his teeth in my book he lost. What lawyer do you know that isn''t able to lie with a straight face? There are some good lawyers I''m sure but most of them are bigger crooks than the ones they defend. ACORN!! So NOBAMA for this guy. He would be the worse candidate for my small business. I''d have to close up shop. Wake up people!! Most of America will be out of work with an Obama presidency. All the business owners I know will be closing their door and none of us are rich, we just live comfortably but so do the people that work for us. Redistribution of wealth doesn''t work. PERIOD!!! It''s just another welfare program the US can''t afford.

[questionnews]

Barrack & Michelle must not talk much or she doesn''t follow the news. The main page has the article were she says Barrack is the underdog. With Barrack''s poll lead???
She must really suck at the football office pool if she thinks hubby is the underdog.

Barrack could go on vacation from now to the election & he would still win.

[floridamom31]

To quote one of the pundits last night responding to the debate was quite refreshing, I was left "enlightened" by the remark,"Obama won the debate because he "looked" all presidential". Well, I had to fire back at that person and remind them of how stupid they were lest they forgot. It is most reassuring to know that since Obama "looks all presidential" that all of our problems will be a thing of the past including all economic woes, global warning, energy problems, racial problems, educational, military and health-care problems because Obama "looks good"...and another qualification that Obama possesses; he stayed at a Holiday Inn.

The reason I started paying attention to Obama and decided that I did not want to vote or him was because of his wife. The first time that I heard her speak and spew her venom, I made my mind up then that whether Barack would be a great president or not it was his wife that would not be a great president''''s wife. She needs to keep it to herself. She is not on the ticket and is a bad representation for her husband. We don''''t need more pot stirers in the white house...we need someone that has the leadership ability to lead this nation and the experience, neither of which Obama has. Looking good and talking good is not all we need at this time. Obama, the underdog, I THINK NOT!!!

[daffy64]

Obama showed he is a thoughtful and reasoning man and incredibly cool under pressure. McCain showed that he''s emotional, snippy, and has a bad temper. It almost looked like his eyes were glowing red at a couple of moments. Between him and his terrible choice of Sarah Palin, I''d say that ticket is toast.

[miggon]

The people who scream loudest about "socialism" and "communism" and conspiracies and "taking back America" and "freedom" always seem to misspell more words than those who espouse fair and balanced -- yes, even nuanced -- views regarding the candidates'' positions and, as appropriate, professional credentials. Let''s go along with the "small government" idea for a minute. So, if the Federal Government got out of the entitlement business once and for all, who on earth would administer relief and training programs to Americans in need? Who? Volunteers. That''s right. Yes. And who would organize those volunteers into a workforce that actually delivers services to the people they serve? Who? Grassroots community organizers! So just think about what it is you really want the Federal Government to do for you. Think about what it means to push everything the Federal Government does for you to the local and/or state level. Highways, roads, bridges, schools, community colleges, unemployment compensation insurance, immunizations, interstate commerce, small business loans, TIF grants, community centers, after school programs, day care so Moms can work ... who on EARTH will ADMINISTER these services to PEOPLE in YOUR community?!?! If your answer is "my church." Then you are not recognizing the ENORMITY of 305 MILLION AMERICANS living in these UNITED STATES. So let''s drop the BS and talk about what it takes - REALLY - to administer programs that keep America strong and growing.

[lucite53]

McCain is such an angry man. If you muted your volume on your TV and watched the two candidates, Obama clearly won. I cannot invision McCain sitting at a table with international leaders. My pledged to myself after lasy nights debate, remove all anger from my life, it is much too ugly

[babooph]

John''s a great guy,but too old & whaco Palin in the breech is untenable.

[brave08]

I am very WIDE awake that is why I am VOTING for
OBAMA. How good he handles Mccain attack and Palin.
God forbid if mccain wins his just one breath away
I will not trust this country to Palin. Go check-out
Salon.com then who is unpatriotic.Palin/Mccain all they will do is firing people left and right.Do you like THAT?.......

[brave08]

EDUCATION, it depends on the person.I have 2 children
and naturalized both my kids goes to public school
and intelligent. Guess some state dont have good
teachers.In our state somewhere in Florida have high
standard of public school.Now thats why i want and
also SUPPORT CHANGE for BARACK OBAMA,because listening to the debate His got good ideas.

[brave08]

Fortunately Obama gain more # in poll.I will trust his
idea and good things he is planning for America.We dont need another 4 more years.Obama is a cool,calm
and very decent professional person. As a president
and candidate,its not right to inject anger,negative
ideas to people who dont understand what is BIG problem here IS ECONOMY,this need to be fix,not ayers
acorn . I have a very good job and hard and secure but
i feel sorry for people who can''t HOLD there job NOW
and if Mccain wins,you will get a BIG surprise.It is
very EASY and simple his healthcare and taxes and I DONT LIKE IT.....

[votergrl]

NOBAMA is unqualified and unfit to lead the united states of america! Ayres, Acorn, Fannie Mae.. get out the vote.. Vote MCCAIN/ PALIN!!

[votergrl]

who is vera baker?

[fedup08]

With the lack of Sen. Obama''s experience do you think he can handle a headline like: The Asian markets plummets: Toyko lost more than 10%; Japan 9.6%; Hong Kong 6%; S. Korea 7.2%; Australia 6.3%; Singapore 6%.
Because ladies and gentlemen, this is the headlines for this A.M. Our market started this yesterday and it will plummet more today. With our market down and Sen. Obama wanting to RAISE TAXES, where in ''Sam Hill" do you think we will go with him as President?