Obama Up 10 Points In New Poll

Washington Post: McCain Favorability Ratings Fall As Obama Appears To Be Gaining Momentum

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Anne E. Kornblut and Jon Cohen.

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With just over three weeks until Election Day, the two presidential nominees appear to be on opposite trajectories, with Sen. Barack Obama gaining momentum and Sen. John McCain stalled or losing ground on a range of issues and personal traits, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Overall, Obama is leading 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and for the first time in the general-election campaign, voters gave the Democrat a clear edge on tax policy and providing strong leadership.

McCain has made little headway in his attempts to convince voters that Obama is too "risky" or too "liberal." Rather, recent strategic shifts may have hurt the Republican nominee, who now has higher negative ratings than his rival and is seen as mostly attacking his opponent rather than addressing the issues that voters care about. Even McCain's supporters are now less enthusiastic about his candidacy, returning to levels not seen since before the Republican National Convention.

Conversely, Obama's pitch to the middle class on taxes is beginning to sink in; nearly as many said they think their taxes would go up under a McCain administration as under an Obama presidency, and more see their burdens easing with the Democrat in the White House.

The poll was conducted after Tuesday night's debate, which most voters said did not sway their opinions much. Still, voters' impressions of Obama are up, and views of McCain have slipped.

Nearly two-thirds of voters, 64 percent, now view Obama favorably, up six percentage points from early September. About a third of voters have a better opinion of the senator from Illinois because of his debate performances, while 8 percent have a lower opinion of him. By contrast, more than a quarter said they think worse of McCain as a result of the debates, more than double the proportion saying their opinion had improved. McCain's overall rating has also dipped seven points, to 52 percent, over the past month.

With the final debate set for Wednesday at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., McCain faces a narrowing window in which to reverse course.

Among the reasons McCain's path to victory seems steeper is that the percentage of "movable" voters continues to shrink. Thirteen percent of all voters are now either undecided or may change their mind before Election Day, down somewhat from recent polls.
Relatively high numbers of movable voters this year have led to poll swings. While McCain and Obama ran nearly even in Post-ABC polling for months, the financial crisis began to accelerate in mid-September -- and so did Obama, stretching to a nine-point lead. That lead narrowed slightly, to four points, after the first presidential debate, then widened again to its current 10 points.

Adding to McCain's burden as the standard-bearer for the party in power is an unprecedented grim view of the country overall: Ninety percent of Americans now see the country as headed in the wrong direction, the worst rating in polls dating to 1973.

There is also near-universal concern for the direction of the nation's economy over the next few years, growing fear that the stock market will perform poorly, and worry that household finances will suffer, factors that contribute to President Bush's approval rating hitting another low.

Twenty-three percent of all adults -- and 18 percent of political independents -- gave the president good marks, putting him within a point of Harry S. Truman's record low in a February 1952 Gallup poll. The low ratings continue to have a dampening effect on McCain: More than half of voters, 51 percent, said that McCain, if elected, would largely continue to lead the country in the direction Bush has, and those voters overwhelmingly prefer Obama.

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While there are few signs of progress for McCain in the poll, recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable, although turning around a late double-digit deficit would be unprecedented in the modern era. At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points.

After weeks of international financial turmoil and a steep Wall Street plunge, there continues to be remarkable consensus among voters that the economy is the campaign's top issue. More than half of all voters, 53 percent, volunteered in an open-ended question that the economy and jobs constituted the most important issue in their choice for president.

Obama is winning "economy voters" by 62 percent to 33 percent, nearly a 2-to-1 ratio.

The next most important issue, health care, was offered by 7 percent of voters. A combined 11 percent of respondents chose terrorism or Iraq -- national security issues on which McCain is relatively stronger -- as their driving issues.

With the airwaves in battleground states reaching saturation level and coverage of the campaign intensifying, 59 percent of voters said that McCain is mainly on the attack, a marked increase over the 48 percent who said the same in August. And 35 percent of respondents said McCain is addressing the issues, in stark contrast with the 68 percent who said Obama is doing so.

That follows a report issued last week by the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project that found that nearly all of McCain's television spots in early October were negative ads, compared with about a third of Obama's.

On taxes, an issue that often benefits Republicans and that McCain has worked aggressively to highlight, Obama holds a significant lead for the first time as voters gave the Democrat an 11-point edge on whom they trust to handle tax policy.

Nearly as many said they think McCain would raise their federal taxes as said so of Obama, an apparent repudiation of Republican efforts to portray Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal and one that follows an intense advertising barrage by Obama asserting that McCain would tax health-care benefits.

Nor has there been evident progress for the GOP campaign to label Obama as an extreme liberal: Fifty-five percent of voters see the Democrat as "about right" ideologically, and although 37 percent see him as "too liberal," that is about the same as it was in June. By contrast, the percentage seeing McCain as "too conservative" is up to 42 percent, higher than it was four months ago.

Obama continues to dominate on the question of who better understands the economic problems facing the country. Both candidates have sought to connect with voters on the issue, and 58 percent said Obama is more in tune with their beliefs, more than double the number who said the same of McCain.

More broadly, there were few signs that McCain's attempts to reinvigorate his standing on economic matters have gained traction. McCain lags 17 points behind Obama on protecting the Social Security system, 28 points behind on helping the middle class and 29 points behind on health care.

McCain's efforts to portray Obama as a risky choice do not appear to have worked, either. In fact, voters are likelier to describe the Republican candidate that way, and although 29 percent said they consider Obama a "very safe" choice for president, 18 percent said the same for McCain. Voters were evenly divided on the question of whether McCain is safe or risky; 55 percent said Obama is safe, while 45 percent described the Democrat as risky.

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McCain did make progress in two areas. He reclaimed ground on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy, nearly matching Obama on that question after trailing by 11 points three weeks ago. And he cut into Obama's lead on the issue of standing up to lobbyists and special interest groups.

McCain has also retained his strong support among white Catholic voters, up 13 points over Obama in that group, the same margin that Bush held in 2004.

Yet on the broader question of leadership, voters gave Obama a 14-point advantage, saying, by 54 percent to 40 percent, that he is a "stronger leader" than McCain. The two were about tied on that question in late September, and McCain held a 13-point edge on strong leadership in early March before the Democratic nomination battle wound down.

Obama also continues to stay above the 50 percent mark on the key question of his experience: 54 percent in the new poll said he has enough experience to serve effectively as president, putting him about even with where Bill Clinton was on this question in early October 1992.

The poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 8 to 11, among a random national sample of 1,101 adults, including interviews with 945 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for the full sample, and 3.5 points for the sample of 766 likely voters.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

[mt4125]

No one watches CBS news anymore. The NYT is losing readers daily, going downhill and laying off workers. No one outside of the Northeast trusts these people or listens to them. So why would anyone believe this poll?

[antoniof123]

Ninety percent of Americans now see the country as headed in the wrong direction, the worst rating in polls dating to 1973.

Let''s see who was President then oh yes Nixon a Repbulican wow, you people must be so proud. While I will say it is true that the GOP did have the White house most of the years look at what it produced.

[roy7011]

Guess what? The problem with John McCain, he lacks experience. He looks and sounds like a novice. He claims to be experienced but in reality he has about six months of experience over the past years. Take a look, who looks like a president?

[wdrussell1]

drcool lying for the GOP. As McCain calls you, his base.

[windmaster12]

Mccain was the Coward

Do a search on any search engine

Of: Mccain Collaborator

And you will read documented testimony from:

Himself -- Other POW''s and Fellow Republicans

On how he Willingly gave up Military secrets to
the Viet Cong-
Betraying himself, his country and fellow servicemen
For preferential treatment
He starred in 32 of their Propaganda movies---
Its all there:
Go look Dumbed down Red States
If you dare to know the Truth!!

Then again, you voted Dumbya in twice
That shows how poor your judgment really is!!!
Do you dare:
Take a look!!!

Mccain Collaborator

[wdrussell1]

From bad to worse. Candidate McCain is opposed to everything maverick McCain ever stood for. Now he is just showing himself as an angry spiteful old man.
This is what you get when wingnut fundis control the party.

[hatesthecolt]

The liberal media wants Obama (and not Clinton or McCain )to be president ; so ,that will happen.

Period!


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Posted by Charlie1000


Uh, OK, well then what happened in the last two elections, if the ''liberal media'' have so much control?? Oh wait, the republicans cheated!

[petehenendez]

Republicans have enough reason to be concerned abouttheir VP candidate.Which goes to the root of their candidate''s biggest flaw:his judgment.Sarah Palin lives in a parallel universe of her own.I cannot see why the (thinking} repulicans arent concerned.This woman has a fair chance of ending up being the president,if God forbid something happens to Sidny Mccain.She made comments in the news expressing her happiness "that there was not even a hint of unethical element or abuse "referring to the findings of the bipartisan commission that stated clearly that "she abused her power".Is this woman for real.God help the repulicans....Amen

[oldguy4truth]

McCain .."has the right where he wants them"
John''s Rope-A-Dope stratigy... yea Right.

[mkbjon]

McNasty says he is a Christian, but I think he would say anything to get more votes. An article in Rolling Stone was particularly scathing, and while I don''t necessarily accept everything that was reported, it is not a stretch to believe that he is verbally abusive to his wife and a misogynist for one reason---ANY grown man who could publicly make a derogatory joke about a teenaged girl''s looks has some real issues with women. I can''t imagine any parent who would not be infuriated if his comments had been directed towards their own child. It takes a certain kind of person to do something like that, and not an admirable one, either.

[ioweign]

Wake up! Did you notice that I said "both parties" in my statement. I wouldn''''t agree with someone who bombed abortion clinics in the name of "saving babies" either. Also, Bill Ayers paid nothing for his crimes and now he supports the radicalization of school children. Even Democrat Geraldine Ferraro says he shouldn''''t be in a position to influence our youth, he lost that ability when he turned to bombing. Also, I''''m not using any war for political reasons like the Democrats have with Iraq, I''''m talking about a domestic terrorist.

Posted by promaclaura at 07:13 AM : Oct 14, 2008

In 1998, G. Gordon Liddy gave a fundraiser in his Scottsdale, Arizona home for McCain''s senatorial re-election campaign -- the two posed for photographs together; and as recently as May, 2007, as a presidential candidate, McCain was a guest on Liddy''s syndicated radio show. Inexplicably, McCain heaped praise on his host''s values. During the segment, McCain said he was "proud" of Liddy, and praised Liddy''s "adherence to the principles and philosophies that keep our nation great."

During the same period that Bill Ayers was a member of the Weather Underground, Gordon Liddy was making plans to firebomb a Washington think tank, assassinate a prominent journalist, undertake the Watergate burglary, break into the office of Daniel Ellsberg''s psychiatrist, and kidnap anti-war protesters at the 1972 Republican convention.

[augustman195]

erb0087,

Good work! But you want to know something? I''ll bet the "person" who so erroneously put out there how stupid they were won''t "(wo)or man-up" and say oops, my bad!

[mkbjon]

Just like this one. A janitor or shoeshine guy, yes; as a coward not fit to be President.

Posted by obamasaho2

And it''s comments like this that are increasingly making your political party unpalatable to undecided voters. Keep up the good work, and THANKS!

[closethippy1]

The way the Founding Fathers wrote the Constitution and other documents can be taken by anyone as permission to use force against the government in case the government abuses its powers.
People like Ayers and McVeigh are very well aware of this. Anyone can make a case for it especially if you have the US lying about the Gulk of Tonkin to get into a totally needless war in Vietnam killing thousands of US soldiers for no good reason.
McVeigh apparently was enfuriated by how the government abused its powers to deal with the Waco, TX religious compound.
I just can''t see how anyone can use these two examples to make an argument against anyone associated with people who want to have the right to fight back against their government.

[erb0087]

Most Democrats in Congress voted against the authorization to use force in Iraq.

Look it up.
-------------------------

I"ll do it for you.

House of Representatives:

Democrats: 82 for the war, 126 against it.
Republicans: 215 for the war, 6 against it.

Senate:
Democrats: 29 for the war, 21 against it.
Republicans: 48 for the war, 1 against it.

So 111 Democrats in Congress voted for the war, and 147 Democrats in Congress voted against it. A clear majority 147 out of 258, against.

The war in Iraq had the full support of the Republican Party only.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Resolution_to_Authorize_the_Use_of_United_States_Armed_Forces_Against_Iraq

[erb0087]

to erb0087, "the Bill Ayers thing is a phony issue"

tell that to the people that died as a result of the bombings.
Posted by mydogsparky at 06:05 AM : Oct 14, 2008
----------------

If innocent people had died he would have gone to prison.

The only ones who died were two members of the Weathermen who were killed trying to make a bomb.

[erb0087]

Only a democrat can overlook that going into Iraq had full support of both parties until the Democrat end made an about face for political reasons and say they "were fooled".
Posted by promaclaura at 07:27 AM : Oct 14, 2008

WRONG !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Most Democrats in Congress voted against the authorization to use force in Iraq.

Look it up.

[usclimey]

Posted by whatithink10

I think you''ll find that the three senators you mentioned changed from democrat to republican when the Kennedy and Johnson administrations started supporting civil rights.

[usclimey]

You would have an arguement if the democrats in congress had put up a big stink about it, after all they are supposed to be the informed experts, what, did they check their brains at the door when they voted for the war?

Posted by promaclaura

No, they made what has now been shown to be a huge mistake - they believed Bush.

[whatithink10]

promaclaura,

Those in glass houses needed throw stone.

Birmingham was once called BOMBINGHAM.

Most of the older southern congressmen couldn''t get elected without pandering to the racists. Most of them switched parties from Republican to Democratic.

Jesse Helms
Strom Thurman
Trent Lott
etc.

They know terrorists.