Oct. 13, 2008
Obama Up 10 Points In New Poll
Washington Post: McCain Favorability Ratings Fall As Obama Appears To Be Gaining Momentum
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Making The Rounds
Barack Obama and John McCain are making their final attempts before the next and final debate to attract more voters. Dean Reynolds reports.
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Where They Stand: Health Care
John McCain plans on driving down costs to make health care more affordable, while Barack Obama wants to increase access to health care for Americans. Seth Doane has more on "Where They Stand."
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The Electoral Map Doesn't Lie
The latest look at the electoral map shows Barack Obama is gaining ground in some historically Republican states. Jeff Greenfield explains what John McCain might have to do to stop Obama's momentum.
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Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., campaigns in Holland, Ohio, Sunday, Oct. 12, 2008. (AP)
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With just over three weeks until Election Day, the two presidential nominees appear to be on opposite trajectories, with Sen. Barack Obama gaining momentum and Sen. John McCain stalled or losing ground on a range of issues and personal traits, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Overall, Obama is leading 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and for the first time in the general-election campaign, voters gave the Democrat a clear edge on tax policy and providing strong leadership.
McCain has made little headway in his attempts to convince voters that Obama is too "risky" or too "liberal." Rather, recent strategic shifts may have hurt the Republican nominee, who now has higher negative ratings than his rival and is seen as mostly attacking his opponent rather than addressing the issues that voters care about. Even McCain's supporters are now less enthusiastic about his candidacy, returning to levels not seen since before the Republican National Convention.
Conversely, Obama's pitch to the middle class on taxes is beginning to sink in; nearly as many said they think their taxes would go up under a McCain administration as under an Obama presidency, and more see their burdens easing with the Democrat in the White House.
The poll was conducted after Tuesday night's debate, which most voters said did not sway their opinions much. Still, voters' impressions of Obama are up, and views of McCain have slipped.
Nearly two-thirds of voters, 64 percent, now view Obama favorably, up six percentage points from early September. About a third of voters have a better opinion of the senator from Illinois because of his debate performances, while 8 percent have a lower opinion of him. By contrast, more than a quarter said they think worse of McCain as a result of the debates, more than double the proportion saying their opinion had improved. McCain's overall rating has also dipped seven points, to 52 percent, over the past month.
With the final debate set for Wednesday at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., McCain faces a narrowing window in which to reverse course.
Among the reasons McCain's path to victory seems steeper is that the percentage of "movable" voters continues to shrink. Thirteen percent of all voters are now either undecided or may change their mind before Election Day, down somewhat from recent polls.
Relatively high numbers of movable voters this year have led to poll swings. While McCain and Obama ran nearly even in Post-ABC polling for months, the financial crisis began to accelerate in mid-September -- and so did Obama, stretching to a nine-point lead. That lead narrowed slightly, to four points, after the first presidential debate, then widened again to its current 10 points.
Adding to McCain's burden as the standard-bearer for the party in power is an unprecedented grim view of the country overall: Ninety percent of Americans now see the country as headed in the wrong direction, the worst rating in polls dating to 1973.
There is also near-universal concern for the direction of the nation's economy over the next few years, growing fear that the stock market will perform poorly, and worry that household finances will suffer, factors that contribute to President Bush's approval rating hitting another low.
Twenty-three percent of all adults -- and 18 percent of political independents -- gave the president good marks, putting him within a point of Harry S. Truman's record low in a February 1952 Gallup poll. The low ratings continue to have a dampening effect on McCain: More than half of voters, 51 percent, said that McCain, if elected, would largely continue to lead the country in the direction Bush has, and those voters overwhelmingly prefer Obama.
While there are few signs of progress for McCain in the poll, recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable, although turning around a late double-digit deficit would be unprecedented in the modern era. At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points.Poll Database
Search recent CBS News campaign polls.
After weeks of international financial turmoil and a steep Wall Street plunge, there continues to be remarkable consensus among voters that the economy is the campaign's top issue. More than half of all voters, 53 percent, volunteered in an open-ended question that the economy and jobs constituted the most important issue in their choice for president.
Obama is winning "economy voters" by 62 percent to 33 percent, nearly a 2-to-1 ratio.
The next most important issue, health care, was offered by 7 percent of voters. A combined 11 percent of respondents chose terrorism or Iraq -- national security issues on which McCain is relatively stronger -- as their driving issues.
With the airwaves in battleground states reaching saturation level and coverage of the campaign intensifying, 59 percent of voters said that McCain is mainly on the attack, a marked increase over the 48 percent who said the same in August. And 35 percent of respondents said McCain is addressing the issues, in stark contrast with the 68 percent who said Obama is doing so.
That follows a report issued last week by the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project that found that nearly all of McCain's television spots in early October were negative ads, compared with about a third of Obama's.
On taxes, an issue that often benefits Republicans and that McCain has worked aggressively to highlight, Obama holds a significant lead for the first time as voters gave the Democrat an 11-point edge on whom they trust to handle tax policy.
Nearly as many said they think McCain would raise their federal taxes as said so of Obama, an apparent repudiation of Republican efforts to portray Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal and one that follows an intense advertising barrage by Obama asserting that McCain would tax health-care benefits.
Nor has there been evident progress for the GOP campaign to label Obama as an extreme liberal: Fifty-five percent of voters see the Democrat as "about right" ideologically, and although 37 percent see him as "too liberal," that is about the same as it was in June. By contrast, the percentage seeing McCain as "too conservative" is up to 42 percent, higher than it was four months ago.
Obama continues to dominate on the question of who better understands the economic problems facing the country. Both candidates have sought to connect with voters on the issue, and 58 percent said Obama is more in tune with their beliefs, more than double the number who said the same of McCain.
More broadly, there were few signs that McCain's attempts to reinvigorate his standing on economic matters have gained traction. McCain lags 17 points behind Obama on protecting the Social Security system, 28 points behind on helping the middle class and 29 points behind on health care.
McCain's efforts to portray Obama as a risky choice do not appear to have worked, either. In fact, voters are likelier to describe the Republican candidate that way, and although 29 percent said they consider Obama a "very safe" choice for president, 18 percent said the same for McCain. Voters were evenly divided on the question of whether McCain is safe or risky; 55 percent said Obama is safe, while 45 percent described the Democrat as risky.
McCain did make progress in two areas. He reclaimed ground on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy, nearly matching Obama on that question after trailing by 11 points three weeks ago. And he cut into Obama's lead on the issue of standing up to lobbyists and special interest groups.
Calculate your own path to the presidency with our Electoral Vote prediction map.
McCain has also retained his strong support among white Catholic voters, up 13 points over Obama in that group, the same margin that Bush held in 2004.
Yet on the broader question of leadership, voters gave Obama a 14-point advantage, saying, by 54 percent to 40 percent, that he is a "stronger leader" than McCain. The two were about tied on that question in late September, and McCain held a 13-point edge on strong leadership in early March before the Democratic nomination battle wound down.
Obama also continues to stay above the 50 percent mark on the key question of his experience: 54 percent in the new poll said he has enough experience to serve effectively as president, putting him about even with where Bill Clinton was on this question in early October 1992.
The poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 8 to 11, among a random national sample of 1,101 adults, including interviews with 945 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for the full sample, and 3.5 points for the sample of 766 likely voters.
Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
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See all 501 CommentsPosted by obanau4 at 09:46 AM : Oct 13, 2008
Yeah, I''m pretty sure these poll takers don''t conduct polls in the evenings or on weekends. Or do they?
Posted by ubu2008 at 09:46 AM : Oct 13, 2008
Can you tell me what tomorrows winning lotto numbers will be?
Will they ever understand that Bush and the Neocons have torpedoed their party, that the GOP is toast, and NOBODY can save them?
McCain = Bush, Palin = Christian Taliban
We''ve had ENOUGH of this shiiiiiiiiiite !!!
Posted by ubu2008 at 09:45 AM : Oct 13, 2008
Here it is from the article above:
McCain did make progress in two areas. He reclaimed ground on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy, nearly matching Obama on that question after trailing by 11 points three weeks ago. And he cut into Obama''s lead on the issue of standing up to lobbyists and special interest groups.
READ IT!!!!
----
I think so. As a Canadian watching these goings on, I''m relieved that there''s still SOME Americans who want an intelligent leader. Hope President Obama visits Canada soon.
And those people are called "republicans"!
Bush has almost completely destroyed this country, and you repugs act like you want McCain to finish the job! Eight years of this cr2ppola is MORE THAN ENOUGH! It''s time to let more rational people try to fix the mess you repugs created.
First of all, McCain didn''t "gain 11 points" as you''d like us to believe - although he did close most of that particular gap. This What the article DID say:
"McCain ... reclaimed ground on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy, nearly matching Obama on that question after trailing by 11 points three weeks ago."
"Nearly matching Obama" - GET IT? That means that those polled by CBS still found McCain, even after he ALMOST closed that 11 point gap, NOT QUITE AS HONEST as Obama.
A brain is a terrible thing to waste. But then again, you don''t seem to have one: you''re a McCain/Palin supporter.
Will they ever understand that Bush and the Neocons have torpedoed their party, that the GOP is toast, and NOBODY can save them?
McCain = Bush, Palin = Christian Taliban
We''''ve had ENOUGH of this shiiiiiiiiiite !!!
Posted by IDNNSG at 10:01 AM : Oct 13, 2008
Right!!!
If I want religion in gov''t, I''ll move to Iran.
But the reality is I don''t want religion in gov''t!
look at me mommy!!! i made a funny out of john mccains name!!!
Posted by jamesm12341 at 10:11 AM : Oct 13, 2008
Howe many times have you made fun or changed Obama''s name?
You are a hypocrite!
Posted by guyfrompa49 at 10:10 AM : Oct 13, 2008
That sounds like Iraq - McCain''s 100 year "Earmark"...
Their policy of ignoring fiscal responsibly started with Reagan bloating a 1 trillion dollar deficit into 4 trillion. Under the latest republican president the red ink has washed over the 11 trillion dollar mark.
Abuse of power also started under Ronald Reagan when the American people said no more money for right wing death squads in south American, Reagan turned around and sold drugs and weapons to our enemies in Iran to pay for his plan to send aid to the Contras.
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Posted by airmanc5 at 10:13 AM : Oct 13, 2008
Check RealClearPolitics.com. Every poll shows Obama ahead.
Posted by john43218 at 10:09 AM : Oct 13, 2008
If the polls are biased, then you have nothing to worry about come election day. So why are you sweatin'' it?
"Ubu",you exhibit the reasoning of a 6-year-old when you say, "McCain gained 11 points in the honest and trust poll, but that is buried in the story. I guess the fact that people do not find Obama to be honest doesn''''''''t merit a mention on CBS."
First of all, McCain didn''''t "gain 11 points" as you''''d like us to believe - although he did close most of that particular gap. This What the article DID say:
"McCain ... reclaimed ground on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy, nearly matching Obama on that question after trailing by 11 points three weeks ago."
"Nearly matching Obama" - GET IT? That means that those polled by CBS still found McCain, even after he ALMOST closed that 11 point gap, NOT QUITE AS HONEST as Obama.
A brain is a terrible thing to waste. But then again, you don''''t seem to have one: you''''re a McCain/Palin supporter.
The smear campgaign certainly did more damage than good. The little hate-fests their rallies were turning into freaked out enough voters on the fence to decide to at least NOT vote for them.
Of course, it''s not over for a few weeks. But Obama supporters have to be feeling pretty good right now.
Posted by BBinFla at 10:03 AM : Oct 13, 2008
I am Catholic voting Obama...
Before you get your knickers in a bunch, I posted the paragraph for ubu to see how he erred in his spin. I got it. Take it easy.
It didn''t help that she read a black and white report that she abused power and violated an Alaska law, and then stated yesterday that she had been cleared of wrongdoing. Thank you, moron.
Galup had McCain up 2 points.
USA TODAY poll had double digits for Obama,
and also now the POST of all creatures.
Those that WILL are they, the "news" people,
now trying to set the Badwagon Effect stage
to the benefit of John The War Criminal
Apprentice ??
Even if the 2 points WERE within Galup''s
error allowance you''d think they''d
add together "worst week" and "up two points"
and get the question "Aint this gonna
look kinda weird to the people ???
Sarah Palin has extreme difficulty painting herself as something different than a governor with ethics problems of an oil producing state.
McCain is only 7% down in the Gallup Poll .. which goes to show that money hasn''t bought the Presidency yet!!
Flag-waving patriotism and Laissez-faire free-market policies dating even prior to the repeal, lead by Phil Gramm during the Clinton Administration, of the Glass-Steagall act, fed by greed, avarice, and disregard for the people of the United States, culminated in the very near collapse of the capitalist world''s economic system. The people who lead us there are now scurrying around to limit the damage. It won''t be long before they proclaim themselves heroes, perhaps donning a costume and posturing on the decks of an aircraft carrier.
I wonder why it is only a ten point lead. I guess they can''t bring themselves to vote for the black guy.
The two political parties of today are no different that organized street gangs. It''s just that they started earlier & do a better job of marketing.
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You''ll be drenched to the bone.
If your time to you
Is worth savin''
Then you better start swimmin''
Or you''ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin''.
* * * *
Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don''t stand in the doorway
Don''t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There''s a battle outside
And it is ragin''.
It''ll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin''.
Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don''t criticize
What you can''t understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is
Rapidly agin''.
Please get out of the new one
If you can''t lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin''.
--Bob Dylan
To all of the anti-Obama bloggers and their tired, worn-out slanderous statements:
many of us watched the debates and are reading a broad range of perspectives on the election. Your repetition of the old silly accusations about Obama are pointless.
We are smart, informed, and we trust what we are seeing with our own eyes....we don''t need your foolish rehash lies and accusations.
In other words, Obama-hating-bashers....your absurd blogging is now irrelevant. Even John Mccain himself gave up on those same baseless ineffective smears.
Because there is no story there
Obama did represent Acorn in a lawsuit in 1995, Acorn was on the same side as the Justice Department. The training events involved two hours of work. And the payment to the Acorn affiliate was reported in campaign filings, although they had to be revised because of an error.
In fact, the Justice Department was on the same side as Acorn in the lawsuit, as were other organizations, including the League of Women Voters. Those plaintiffs won the case.
Posted by trishab58
after 8 years of nazism, we''ll take Obama...gladly!
Posted by GrabAndGo
Obama has already proved he can handle the economic problems better than McCain! McCain has been all over the map on this issue! First he claimed ''the fundamentals of the economy are strong'', then later the same day in another speech, he said it was a crisis! Next, he said if he was President, he''d fire the head of the S.E.C., somebody had to tell him the President CAN''T fire the head of the S.E.C. After that, McCain ''suspended his campaign'' and tried to weasel out of the 1st debate, only to back down 2 days later!
Sorry , for all of McCain''s experience, he doesn''t have the judgment to be President!
Besides, one of our greatest Presidents, Abraham Linclon had less experience than Obama!! He served only 1 term as a congressman, and was out of government for 8 years before being elected President!
---------------
Is it really? Apparently you never read the book.
Once again I''ll explain what most have of have figued out already:
Just because it''s on the internet, doesn''t make it true.
That was before the GOP scratched the bottom of the barrel with Bush and now with John McCain/Morgan Clark running.
McCain/Ditzbot`08
Sarah Quaylin
Melenoma McLamely
McBritney
McSpears
McLifeAle
rt
McBush
McChicken
McHoover
McCance
r
McLame
McSame
Catfish McCain
McCain isn''''t Able
Mc9/11
McSayAnything
McPOW
McNa
zi
McCantflyAPlane
McLoser
McComa
Mc
Grinch
McYouAintMyFriend.....get away from me!!!!
McSouthernWhiteTrash
McGigolo
McVain
McCrypt
McClone
McBombBomb
Mc
Crazy
McWanderingEyes
McTool
McAdulte
rer
McFlipFlop
McCelebrity
McSurgeOn
nMcPOS
McKook
McAnger
McCreep
McLose
r
McLiverSpots
McStayTheCourse
Combov
er McLiverspot
McCantankerous
McLooseCann
on
McInsane
McBuzzard
McLiar...with or without cheese?
McCon
McCan''''t
McLooney
McSe
nile
McTrash
McImpotent
McLimp
McFor
get
McCrash
McDepends
McSlimey
McScu
m
McOldPeopleSmell
McTalesFromTheCrypt
McManWhore
McFalseTeeth
McOld
McTem
per
McWheeze
McPorkBarrel
McPolygrip
nMcFailin
McRacist
McFallenAndCantGetU
p
McWarMonger
McRaceCard
McWho
Amnes
ty Mccain
LOL.. Those are all perfect for McCancer..
They preach to their own choir.
Once again the Main (****) Stream Media are chauffeuring their candidates to the finish line!
Talk about ethics voilations!
They preach to their own choir.
Once again the Main (****) Stream Media are chauffeuring their candidates to the finish line!
Talk about ethics voilations!
Posted by ShannonJane6 at 10:55 AM : Oct 13, 2008
Liar.
ABC & CBS poll their own constituents.
They preach to their own choir.
Once again the Main (****) Stream Media are chauffeuring their candidates to the finish line!
Talk about ethics voilations!
Posted by dude1961 at 10:55 AM : Oct 13, 2008
It''s really getting boring listening to the rightwingnuts whine about the so-called liberal media. If you want someone to tell you exactly what you want to hear, go to Fox.
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