Time To Move Beyond "The Bradley Effect?"

CBS News' Kathy Frankovic: Perhaps It's Time To Finally End Our Obsession With Race And Polls

(CBS)  This column was written by CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic.

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Sometimes I feel like a broken record. Despite all the claims that Americans have moved beyond race, we still want to talk about race!

Why else was “race” practically the first explanation offered in New Hampshire this year when pre-primary polls failed to predict the outcome? Was it really the resurrection of the so-called ”Bradley Effect" from all the way back in 1982?

Why else did people “forget” (or disregard) that in 2006 pre-election polls in two state-wide races involving black candidates showed NO indication of this “effect?”

Why is it that we keep coming back to this theme? CBS Sunday Morning, the New York Times, and the Washington Post all had stories about race and polling just three weeks before the presidential election.

We’ve gone through this topic many times, yet we still seem to worry about people lying to pollsters, or that black interviewers will get different answers from respondents than white interviewers do. Some of us even believe that every person who has yet to declare a preference publicly must, somehow, be motivated by race.

What does this say about Americans? Many people, clearly, would rather talk about this than about other issues. Some people may believe it outweighs even the troubled state of the American economy, which our polls clearly show as the issue that voters say matters most to them.

A recent CBS News Poll may shed a little light on why we talk about race so much. We asked registered voters to answer this pair of questions: “Is there anyone you know who supports Barack Obama mainly because Obama is black?” and “Is there anyone you know who does not support Barack Obama mainly because Obama is black?”

The first analysis of the data suggests that - like so many other candidate characteristics -- race is a wash, with just about as many voters saying one thing as saying the other. Twenty four percent say they know someone supporting Obama because of his race, 22 percent say they know someone voting against Obama because of it. And this is not necessarily determined by people’s own race: 23 percent of white voters say they know someone voting for Obama because of race, and 20 percent know someone who will vote against him for that reason.

But what we find out when we look more closely at the questions and responses is that we are more likely to want to ascribe racial motivation to people who disagree with us than to recognize it in those with whom we agree. So among people currently supporting Obama, just 18 percent say they know someone supporting him because of his race. But 25 percent of the same people say they know someone not supporting him for racial reasons.

John McCain voters see the opposite: 20 percent say they know someone voting against Obama for racial reasons (about the same percentage of Obama voters who know people supporting Obama for that reason). But 33 percent say they know someone voting for him because of race.

The difference is even more stark when we compare white voters who support Obama with those who support McCain. Thirteen percent of white Obama voters know someone voting for Obama because of race, 23 percent know someone voting against him for that reason. McCain voters are mostly white (African-Americans overwhelmingly vote Democratic), so little changes when we look at white McCain voters: 19 percent know someone voting against Obama because of race, 32 percent know someone voting for him for that reason.

Notice that our poll questions did not ask about people in general - they asked only about people “you know.” The responses suggest that there could be a lot more racial attribution taking place. When people start assessing the motivations of those who disagree with them - people whom they may not know personally - they may be even more likely to see racial factors at work, and may not be able to imagine that strangers have any reasons for making their electoral decisions this year other than race.

Obviously, some Americans do have and do express racial fears and racially-based opinions. Some will admit - even to pollsters -- that race influences their vote. We know that in exit polls conducted during the Democratic primaries this year, about one in five respondents said that race factored in their voting decision. They didn’t necessarily vote much differently from people who resembled them demographically but said race didn’t matter. However, sometimes they did, and in the expected direction: blacks citing race as a factor were more likely to support Obama, whereas whites citing race were more likely to vote for Clinton.

One way of revealing racial fears is to ask if people expect that one presidential administration’s policies would favor one racial group to the disadvantage of another. In July 16 percent of white voters said they thought that the policies of an Obama presidency would “favor blacks over whites.” Suspicions go in both directions - 32 percent of African-Americans believed that a John McCain administration would “favor whites over blacks.” And feelings like that do enter into some people’s voting calculus. About one in four whites supporting John McCain - 23 percent -- said Obama’s policies would favor people of his own race, not theirs.

We have been able to ask about race in many ways this year, and voters have answered our questions. Maybe we’ve finally reached a point where that’s no longer necessary, and a time in our nation’s history when we can finally end our obsession with race and polls.

[whosaid1]

dbaecht: "My little brother is a baptist preacher and he and his church agree that blowing up womens clinics is the only way to stop it. They would never have the guts to commit these horrible acts but they sure agree."

Sounds to me like you have an issue within your family..maybe you should be working on getting your brother to denounce your "Christian domestic terrorist" rather than trying to get people you don''t know to do it....in my mind anyone who blows up clinics for any reason could not possible be a Christian...so, as a Christian I feel no need to DENOUNCE them as though they were part of my christian "group"....

[dbaecht]

To back up to part of this, my point about the christian domestic terrorist.
I would agree that they are right wing types. But I have posted this very same point on several blogs and not one true christian has said they denounce what these nut jobs do. I have never heard any christians anywhere denounce these people. My little brother is a baptist preacher and he and his church agree that blowing up womens clinics is the only way to stop it. They would never have the guts to commit these horrible acts but they sure agree.
The whole point is the un-Obama side want to talk about all these things they think about Obama but don''t want to talk about their shady associations.
Any other questions just ask, and I appreciate the respectful way you questioned my post.
part 4

[dbaecht]

I agree with you, Obama will be one of the best if not the best President. He will help bring back the Honor of this country, not only in the eyes of the citizens but also our allies and the world.
I''m a retired 100% disabled American veteran.
I would stand behind President Obama and serve out his orders no questions asked, but I trust him to not put me in harms way without a *** good reason.
We have lost over 4000 service members in Iraq that should not have been there in the first place.
Of course the canidates should be scruitinized, but when the concerns have been answered, then it is time to move on.
Obama is a level headed thoughtful man, he doesn''t react badly to being called names and being called a liar. His conduct in this race has been that of a gentlman, not a loose cannon.
The hatred that has been spewed in his direction would make most men lose it.
part 3

[dbaecht]

For the record I don''t agree with what Ayers did, and I can''t do anything about him being not being sorry about what he did.
No I don''t believe our government is christian, christians would like that. Turning this into a theological country can''t be allowed, in fact the Constitution prevents that.
There is nothing uneducated about my post.
I don''t see wher my post was broad at all.
I don''t disregard any facts.
I''ve read and listened to the concerns and have and listened to the explantions of Obamas ties to Ayers.
Did Ayers host a political coming out party for Obama, yes, Obama never denied that. Where they both on the board of the Annenberg Foundation, yes, also never denied by Obama, in addition to Obama and Ayes their are republicans on the same board and The head of the foundation is a supporter of McCain. Using the of Palin that means that McCain is supported by a person pallin around with a terrorist. Do they both live in the same general nieborhooh, yes, never denied by Obama.

[dbaecht]

"The Ayers connection has been answered multiple times by multiple people".
Posted by dbaecht at 11:29 AM : Oct 15, 2008
So it doesn''''''''''''''''t bother you that he was responsible for attacking the White House and Pentagon and that his recent statement was that he only wished he did more?

"The chistians have never repented for their crimes, and will continue every chance they get".
Posted by dbaecht at 11:29 AM : Oct 15, 2008
What are you talking about? Are you insisting that our government is Christian?
What amazes me is that you can''''''''''''''''t give an educated answer. You only give broad statements which mean nothing.
Do you just disregard all and any facts that might imply that Obama may have been in bad company, a few times?
Obama may be the greatest President this country will ever see. However, a man that will hold the highest position of office, have control over our military and its'''''''''''''''' arsenal, and hold the nations highest secrets should be scrutinized with whom he associates and how he see''''''''''''''''s fit to protect the Constitution of the United States

Posted by tcandrews62"

bear with me and I will address all your questions.

end part 1

[TommyCraig]

one more time,
"The Ayers connection has been answered multiple times by multiple people".
Posted by dbaecht at 11:29 AM : Oct 15, 2008
So it doesn''''''''t bother you that he was responsible for attacking the White House and Pentagon and that his recent statement was that he only wished he did more?

"The chistians have never repented for their crimes, and will continue every chance they get".
Posted by dbaecht at 11:29 AM : Oct 15, 2008
What are you talking about? Are you insisting that our government is Christian?
What amazes me is that you can''''''''t give an educated answer. You only give broad statements which mean nothing.
Do you just disregard all and any facts that might imply that Obama may have been in bad company, a few times?
Obama may be the greatest President this country will ever see. However, a man that will hold the highest position of office, have control over our military and its'''''''' arsenal, and hold the nations highest secrets should be scrutinized with whom he associates and how he see''''''''s fit to protect the Constitution of the USA.

[TommyCraig]

Sorry, redo


"The Ayers connection has been answered multiple times by multiple people".
Posted by bettieh1 at 08:13 PM : Oct 14, 2008
So it doesn''''t bother you that he was responsible for attacking the White House and Pentagon and that his recent statement was that he only wished he did more?

"The chistians have never repented for their crimes, and will continue every chance they get".
Posted by bettieh1 at 08:13 PM : Oct 14, 2008
What are you talking about? Are you insisting that our government is Christian?
What amazes me is that you can''''t give an educated answer. You only give broad statements which mean nothing.
Do you just disregard all and any facts that might imply that Obama may have been in bad company, a few times?
Obama may be the greatest President this country will ever see. However, a man that will hold the highest position of office, have control over our military and its'''' arsenal, and hold the nations highest secrets should be scrutinized with whom he associates and how he see''''s fit to protect the Constitution of the USA.

[TommyCraig]

"The Ayers connection has been answered multiple times by multiple people".
So it doesn''t bother you that he was responsible for attacking the White House and Pentagon and that his recent statement was that he only wished he did more?

"The chistians have never repented for their crimes, and will continue every chance they get".
What are you talking about? Are you insisting that our government is Christian?
What amazes me is that you can''t give an educated answer. You only give broad statements which mean nothing.
Do you just disregard all and any facts that might imply that Obama may have been in bad company, a few times?
Obama may be the greatest President this country will ever see. However, a man that will hold the highest position of office, have control over our military and its'' arsenal, and hold the nations highest secrets should be scrutinized with whom he associates and how he see''s fit to protect the Constitution of the USA.

[dbaecht]

"Did Ayers ever repent or ask for forgiveness for his actions against his country? Did he not state that he wished that he only did more?
That is why the connection between Ayers and Obama comes to question.
I think we should certainly look into the lives of both candidates.

Posted by tcandrews62"

The Ayers connection has been answered multiple times by multiple people. The only reason it keeps coming up is the repugs have to try and redirect folks attention from the real issues.
The chistians have never repented for their crimes, and will continue every chance they get.
That''s right they wont because they think they are above the laws of the land because they are doing their gods work, all they are domestic terrorist that are on the same level as any other terrorist in the world.

[TommyCraig]

"The same way christians and repugs want to associate Obama with Ayers".
Posted by dbaecht at 03:39 PM : Oct 14, 2008
Did Ayers ever repent or ask for forgiveness for his actions against his country? Did he not state that he wished that he only did more?
That is why the connection between Ayers and Obama comes to question.
I think we should certainly look into the lives of both candidates.

[bettieh1]

bracemic what is a repug???

whosaid1"
What is a republichug????
If you want real and true, non-biased, fair to both sides, they check the facts so the story will be TRUE. You need to tune in to another station than CBS, NBC MSNBC ABC, they are in Obamas pocket. So far left hard to find on my TV. Fox news is the only fair news. Those other stations mentioned, have lost all integrity!!! Journalist, are supposed to be fair to all when reporting. To bad these others feel the need to hide, misconstrue facts, turn them to their opinion.

[whosaid1]

bracemic: We''re dueling with an "unarmed" individual here.......

[dbaecht]

"christian domestic terrorist that blow up womens clinics and kill innocent people."


I don''''t see how you are lumping these people in with Christians. Like any cult, you can say you follow Jesus, but the reality is in the actions (that is, the action of love).

Posted by bracemic"

The same way christians and repugs want to associate Obama with Ayers.

[bracemic]

"christian domestic terrorist that blow up womens clinics and kill innocent people."


-----------------------------------

I don''t see how you are lumping these people in with Christians. Like any cult, you can say you follow Jesus, but the reality is in the actions (that is, the action of love).

[bracemic]

McCain rallies are anti-Obama, not anti-Black. Stop trying to inject race into the campaign. It''s cheap, sleazy, and it clouds the legitimate concerns that voters have about Obama.

[dbaecht]

"free thinkers!!!!! Boy that''''s hilarious.

Posted by whosaid1"

You find that funny, that''s all youi can find to comment on.
Why not comment on the christian domestic terrorist part.
That''s right you won''t because your a coward like the rest of your repulicthug buddies.

[whosaid1]

free thinkers!!!!! Boy that''s hilarious....

[dbaecht]

" His race will never be a factor with the immoral values he promotes. Now, if JC Watts, Colin Powell or Condalezza Rice were to run, there would be little problem with race being a factor because their values are better.

Posted by rosesnpearls"

The only ones that will not be a factor in this race will be McCain/Palin.
The repulicons deluding themselves.
They want to push the hatred, and post half truths and outright lies.
The republthugs don''t want us free thinkers, to make the connections between them and the christian domestic terrorist that blow up womens clinics and kill innocent people.

[rosesnpearls]

A lot of us do not even have to consider whether race is a factor because abortion, stem cell harvesting, gay marriage and other moral issues along with socialized medicine are so very much more important. His race will never be a factor with the immoral values he promotes. Now, if JC Watts, Colin Powell or Condalezza Rice were to run, there would be little problem with race being a factor because their values are better.

[whosaid1]

Interobserv: "posters continue to foster hate."...have you really taken the time to read all the comments on this site??? Seems like an equal number of idiots on each side to me....and no the hate mongers are NOT just on the McCain side...give it an honest look.........