Time To Move Beyond "The Bradley Effect?"
CBS News' Kathy Frankovic: Perhaps It's Time To Finally End Our Obsession With Race And Polls
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Race And The Campaign
Bob Schieffer spoke with Democratic Mayor Doug Wilder about how race may affect the presidential campaign on voting day.
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Listen to CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic dissect the data to see what's driving public opinion.
Sometimes I feel like a broken record. Despite all the claims that Americans have moved beyond race, we still want to talk about race!
Why else was “race” practically the first explanation offered in New Hampshire this year when pre-primary polls failed to predict the outcome? Was it really the resurrection of the so-called ”Bradley Effect" from all the way back in 1982?
Why else did people “forget” (or disregard) that in 2006 pre-election polls in two state-wide races involving black candidates showed NO indication of this “effect?”
Why is it that we keep coming back to this theme? CBS Sunday Morning, the New York Times, and the Washington Post all had stories about race and polling just three weeks before the presidential election.
We’ve gone through this topic many times, yet we still seem to worry about people lying to pollsters, or that black interviewers will get different answers from respondents than white interviewers do. Some of us even believe that every person who has yet to declare a preference publicly must, somehow, be motivated by race.
What does this say about Americans? Many people, clearly, would rather talk about this than about other issues. Some people may believe it outweighs even the troubled state of the American economy, which our polls clearly show as the issue that voters say matters most to them.
A recent CBS News Poll may shed a little light on why we talk about race so much. We asked registered voters to answer this pair of questions: “Is there anyone you know who supports Barack Obama mainly because Obama is black?” and “Is there anyone you know who does not support Barack Obama mainly because Obama is black?”
The first analysis of the data suggests that - like so many other candidate characteristics -- race is a wash, with just about as many voters saying one thing as saying the other. Twenty four percent say they know someone supporting Obama because of his race, 22 percent say they know someone voting against Obama because of it. And this is not necessarily determined by people’s own race: 23 percent of white voters say they know someone voting for Obama because of race, and 20 percent know someone who will vote against him for that reason.
But what we find out when we look more closely at the questions and responses is that we are more likely to want to ascribe racial motivation to people who disagree with us than to recognize it in those with whom we agree. So among people currently supporting Obama, just 18 percent say they know someone supporting him because of his race. But 25 percent of the same people say they know someone not supporting him for racial reasons.
John McCain voters see the opposite: 20 percent say they know someone voting against Obama for racial reasons (about the same percentage of Obama voters who know people supporting Obama for that reason). But 33 percent say they know someone voting for him because of race.
The difference is even more stark when we compare white voters who support Obama with those who support McCain. Thirteen percent of white Obama voters know someone voting for Obama because of race, 23 percent know someone voting against him for that reason. McCain voters are mostly white (African-Americans overwhelmingly vote Democratic), so little changes when we look at white McCain voters: 19 percent know someone voting against Obama because of race, 32 percent know someone voting for him for that reason.
Notice that our poll questions did not ask about people in general - they asked only about people “you know.” The responses suggest that there could be a lot more racial attribution taking place. When people start assessing the motivations of those who disagree with them - people whom they may not know personally - they may be even more likely to see racial factors at work, and may not be able to imagine that strangers have any reasons for making their electoral decisions this year other than race.
Obviously, some Americans do have and do express racial fears and racially-based opinions. Some will admit - even to pollsters -- that race influences their vote. We know that in exit polls conducted during the Democratic primaries this year, about one in five respondents said that race factored in their voting decision. They didn’t necessarily vote much differently from people who resembled them demographically but said race didn’t matter. However, sometimes they did, and in the expected direction: blacks citing race as a factor were more likely to support Obama, whereas whites citing race were more likely to vote for Clinton.
One way of revealing racial fears is to ask if people expect that one presidential administration’s policies would favor one racial group to the disadvantage of another. In July 16 percent of white voters said they thought that the policies of an Obama presidency would “favor blacks over whites.” Suspicions go in both directions - 32 percent of African-Americans believed that a John McCain administration would “favor whites over blacks.” And feelings like that do enter into some people’s voting calculus. About one in four whites supporting John McCain - 23 percent -- said Obama’s policies would favor people of his own race, not theirs.
We have been able to ask about race in many ways this year, and voters have answered our questions. Maybe we’ve finally reached a point where that’s no longer necessary, and a time in our nation’s history when we can finally end our obsession with race and polls.
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See all 84 CommentsAnd, for the moron who chose this forum to attack the "Republican Nazi fascist party," how appropriate that on the very day he used congressman Foley as some twisted example of this, it is revealed that Foley''s Democrat successor used $120k of government money to pay off his mistress? All Foley did was write a couple suggestive emails to a page. But in the minds of kooks, which includes most liberals, Foley''s the one who deserves the death penalty; while his crook successor will no doubt weather the storm.
I almost hope that Obama does win. Then, four years from now when our economy is once again in shambles and our enemies around the world are closing in as a result of bumbling and inept leftist foreign policy, there will be no doubt as to where the blame lies.
I keep saying that if people don''t realize that Obama being a member of the NP Socialist party in the US, being friends with Ayers (Socialist US terrorist), and attending a Socialist Black Liberation Theology (which is basically Nation of Islam Theology), AND campaigning for Muslim Socialist Raila Odinga in Kenya, etc., etc., etc. means "nothing"... I''m gonna laugh when they wake up and he''s overthrown their government from within and they no longer have democratic freedom.
And if he supported a Kenyan candidate who agreed to institute Islamic law as a dictator - why do they think Obama is so opposed to Islamic law and Socialist totalitarianism?
They''d get just what htey deserve for refusing to heed warning and being so "starry eyed" to elect the most radical left candidate in American history.
McCain''s remarks on health care in his speech today are worth highlighting: %u201CI will provide every single American family with a $5000 refundable tax credit to help them purchase insurance. Workers who already have health care insurance from their employers will keep it and have more money to cover costs. Workers who don''t have health insurance can use it to find a policy anywhere in this country to meet their basic needs.%u201D
This works for me. I''m not sure how he''s going to pay for it... but I think that clarification makes it a good plan to me. Everyone will have equal opportunity and everyone gets an equal amount for that opportunity.
McCain''''s remarks on health care in his speech today are worth highlighting: %u201CI will provide every single American family with a $5000 refundable tax credit to help them purchase insurance. Workers who already have health care insurance from their employers will keep it and have more money to cover costs. Workers who don''''t have health insurance can use it to find a policy anywhere in this country to meet their basic needs.%u201D
This works for me. I''''m not sure how he''''s going to pay for it... but I think that clarification makes it a good plan to me. Everyone will have equal opportunity and everyone gets an equal amount for that opportunity.
Posted by justsurfing at 06:31 PM : Oct 13, 2008
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I like this as well:
Obama announced on international television that he was going to bomb Pakistan. Oh wait... that''s not a good thing! I wonder if Pakistan knows & is readying their nukes. Yay! Nuclear war is coming.
For a parallel, I would look at the 1960 election when some were convinced Kennedy would not be elected because he was a Roman Catholic.
The biggest bigotry factor in the 2008 election is religion, where being a Mormon killed Mitt Romney''s chances.
Posted by AmJoe at 07:58 PM : Oct 13, 2008
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Your logic sounds like it might have come from incoherent Sarah Palin.
So does that mean that it was racism when Al Gore got 92% of the Black vote? Was it racism when Bill clinton got 92% of the black vote? Is it racism or does it mean that the majority of blacks are too smart to vote against their own interests and vote for a party full of bigots?
Posted by mr22585
*********************************************************** It sounds like you are saying our country is full of racists. If that is the case, how do you blame Obama for that?
So my theory (that''s all it is) is that these blogs, like many other things, will become irrelevant because of the smelly pollution from the agitators.
Anyway, the real point here is that NONE of this hate and anger on the blogs really changes anything.
all the mantra that is repeated over and over about Obama and his heritage and his beliefs? It will not even begin to change an Obama supporter''s mind if they have watched him at the debates and in speeches, because we trust our OWN judgement more than we do your hysterical criticism.
all the hate talk is essentially wasted on the majority of people; after all, ALL OF US only see the message we WANT to see.
and hate slinging might be a release for your anger, but it just really isn''t dong anything else.
Only the fools and ill-informed will believe Obama is a muslim, or arabic or whatever. More votes could be swayed through intelligent conversation or through actual door to door campaigning for your candidate.
But if you think the stinky, vile, often idiotic, worn out insults still work then you are welcome to it. But pretty soon, the only people on these blogs will be paid trolls talking to each other....
It is not the race of the candidates, we don''t want another Jimmy Carter in the White HOuse. Obama will be worst than Carter.
Major Networks Announce the Cancellation of the Bush/Palin/McCain Campaign Melodrama 3 Weeks From Now, Featuring a Trio of "Make-Believe Mavericks" Wondering Around in the Middle Eastern Desert in Search of WMDs, Global Warming, Earmarks, Economic Fundamentals, Witches and the Axis of Evil...
I agree when you say, "But if you think the stinky, vile, often idiotic, worn out insults still work then you are welcome to it. But pretty soon, the only people on these blogs will be paid trolls talking to each other...."
That goes for the left and the right. If you go through this correspondence, as much abuse has been heaped on McCain as Obama.
Posted by cbaraka
Exactly. Issues are color-blind. But the Rove-bots use race and other weapons of mass distraction to chop the electorate apart.
To the extent that Obama''s campaign wipes out the race-baiting Rove smear machine, that is the degree to which our nation will have grown stronger and better.
Obama will be our next president. Not because of his race, but because of his ideas and his character.
It''s time.
There is a rap CD entitled "NaS", which was released in 2008. The photo on the cover is a black man''s bare back covered with scars from being whipped (fake, but it makes a statement).
On the inside is a photo of 3 black women "hanging out" on a city street corner; in the faded background walking toward them is a white man in a business suit with a "seeking" expression on his face.
And lastly is a picture of a confederate flag with a body/torso in front of it dressed in a black biker jacket and jeans, with arms out straight and hands that appear to be fastened at the top of the flag corners...the person is being crucified on the confederate flag.
One of the songtracks is entitled "Black President", depicting the artist''s idea of what America would be like with Obama as president.
I believe deep down in my heart that we need to stand up on behalf of the nation and repent for how we''ve historically treated minorities. Affirmative Action still treats minorities as "different". In some areas, prejudism obviously never stopped.
Silver does acknowledge the Bradley Effect (ironically) in races other than Bradley''s, but it was much less significant than stated, and that was over TWENTY YEARS AGO.
There is no "Bradley Effect."
Thank heaven.
All for THAT ONE
Stop living in the past. Karl Rove has nothing to do with the McCain campaign any more than William Ayers is involved in the Obama campaign. There are two honorable men standing for the presidency.
There is a rap CD entitled "NaS", which was released in 2008. The photo on the cover is a black man''s bare back covered with scars from being whipped (fake, but it makes a statement).
On the inside is a photo of 3 black women "hanging out" on a city street corner; in the faded background walking toward them is a white man in a business suit with a "seeking" expression on his face.
And lastly is a picture of a confederate flag with a body/torso in front of it dressed in a black biker jacket and jeans, with arms out straight and hands that appear to be fastened at the top of the flag corners...the person is being crucified on the confederate flag.
One of the songtracks is entitled "Black President", depicting the artist''s idea of what America would be like with Obama as president.
I believe deep down in my heart that we need to stand up on behalf of the nation and repent for how we''ve historically treated minorities. Affirmative Action still treats minorities as "different". In some areas, prejudism obviously never stopped.
In the end it was 4, and 2 of them claimed to vote for GW twice - once in Wisconsin and once in Illinois. So it was a wash. Meanwhile in inner city polling places hundreds stopped waiting in long lines and didn''t vote because their hourly jobs made it impossible.
Meanwhile North and West in the wealthy suburbs maximum waiting times were 20 minutes.
There may still be some residual effect, but I doubt that it''s anywhere near what it was back then. Times have changed, thank God.
McCain''''s remarks on health care in his speech today are worth highlighting: %u201CI will provide every single American family with a $5000 refundable tax credit to help them purchase insurance. Workers who already have health care insurance from their employers will keep it and have more money to cover costs. Workers who don''''t have health insurance can use it to find a policy anywhere in this country to meet their basic needs.%u201D
This works for me. I''''m not sure how he''''s going to pay for it... but I think that clarification makes it a good plan to me. Everyone will have equal opportunity and everyone gets an equal amount for that opportunity.
Posted by justsurfing at 06:31 PM : Oct 13, 2008
Unfortunately, it''s only a tax CREDIT and he is going to tax what your employer pays for your health benefits. A lot of top economists have come out against it. Google it for more research.
Posted by jahpdq at 05:56 PM : Oct 13, 2008
Whoever gets in will have their work cut out for them cleaning up this horrible mess.
The race is main issue in the Election 08. If 65% White vote fo McCain, he will win
White against white and black unite. So Obama win
Posted by Timmothy8 at 07:13 PM : Oct 13, 2008
I''m going to assume that you are young and give you a break on this. Otherwise, I would have to say that you are very ignorant.
The reason that I say that is because it has been decades (if not OVER a century) since the majority of black American have voted for Republicans.
It has been a very long time since the ''party of Lincoln'' has been in favor of anything for black Americans.
Quite a long time since they have been for anyone who wasn''t a very wealthy person, actually--black OR white.
THAT is the reason that Obama is getting the poll results. Middle class white Americans are tired of being ignored by the Republican party.
Posted by mr22585 at 07:38 PM : Oct 13, 2008
People like you are just so pathetic!
First of all, he has zero ARAB heritage (not that it should matter, except to a jerk like you).
Secondly, you say ''we still don''t have a black president.''--Is that wishful thinking on your part or what--I don''t get your point.
Because people like you who bring up race in the way that you have are the type of people to whom the ''one-drop rule'' is important--to you, if he has one drop of black blood, he''s a ''n-g-r'' (pathetic). Then you want to say ''we still don''t have a black president.'' But that''s why you hate him anyway. Hypocrite!
I am so very happy that my beautiful country has finally evolved beyond this race garbage.
PS--I''m white and my familily has been here since about 1645.
Posted by angeljoymom at 10:45 PM : Oct 13, 2008
I remember a person here on the cite told me in Russia there problems with minorities'' treatment exist. Oh wait... In the US they flourish! Another told me we have superfluous state regulations. You know what I am hinting at, I believe: your goverment are forced to establish the regulations too! And look at the history information about Russia on the cite here... It doesn''t mention 27 million lives Russia lost in the WW2. Strange! I am still feeling odd at the western view on us, folks! I have been reading your books, watching your films and all and then you have poured out so much dubious opinions (ordinary people and politicians)! Ah well never mind! :(
What''s the big deal here? Are we afraid of a little tan? Britain''s prime minister is Brown, fer cryin'' out loud.
We are better than this, people.
People are just as prejudice as they were back then, they just hide it better. Every time you hear about a racial discrimination suit for someone being fire, blacks are crying that they were fired for the color of their skin. It''s a cop out for those who cannot accept the fact they were fired because they were incompetent. Racial tensions are perpetuated by an immature and far from creative media who are spoonfed their spew and rhetoric that we eat from troughs every day.
Try turning off your TV and getting out there and really seeing how much racial divides still exist very strongly in our culture. I stopped letting the media decide my issues for me years ago, turned off the TV and started forming my own opinions. Polls? I can''t believe ANYONE pays any attention whatsoever to those wasted efforts. Try thinking for yourselves.
Posted by russellessur
Color is irrelevant to ability. In this case lack of ability to do anything but talk a good game is the concern.
Posted by citizen08
Of course it is, and read this...
I believe deep down in my heart that we need to stand up on behalf of the nation and repent for how we''ve historically treated minorities.
Posted by angeljoymom
So some are voting from a self inflicted guilt complex.... If they would give the office of president on that basis then perhaps they should give their job away as well. Just find an unemployed person of a different race and introduce them to their boss and then walk away. That will make it all better!!!
''Sometimes I feel like a broken record. Despite all the claims that Americans have moved beyond race, WE still want to talk about race!''
The ''WE'' in this case is the media that wrote and published this article. Throw a little gasoline on the fire.....
Thus, it is not about the person, the achievements, track record on issues and the integrity behind them, it is how they "look" in a debate. I hear this from many Obama supporters. And if you attack them on any of these issues and they lose on any of those shortcomings, you will be called racist for voting against Obama.
Posted by citizen08
It''s an injustice for sure, but they can call me anything they want before I would be accuses of helping Barrack Hussein Obama take the highest office in this land.
Period.
Period.
Posted by checkthepast
Now am I guilty of religious prejudice as well because I typed his full name? Probably, but oh well, it''s his name and his heritage, not mine.
I just sent in an absentee ballot today. Why isn''t Barack''s middle name on the ballot? Hussein. Is he ashamed of his Muslim heritage or, worse, racist?
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