WASHINGTON, Oct. 9, 2008
Afghanistan Facing "Downward Spiral"
National Intelligence Estimate Draft Report Highlights Afghanistan's Accelerated Deterioration
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The nearly completed National Intelligence Estimate, the work of 16 intelligence agencies, says Afghanistan's deterioration has accelerated alarmingly in past two months. Bush administration officials say privately that Afghanistan is now the single most pressing security threat in the fight against terrorism.
"We are doing a review to look to see what more we can do," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told reporters Thursday. "We are looking to see where some of the strengths are and how we can support those strengths and also how we can help the Afghans when there are weaknesses."
A senior U.S. commander with recent experience in Afghanistan characterized the situation as "stagnant" rather than deteriorating.
"We're not making progress. And we're not making progress because of a lack of capability in the government and because the Taliban have a safe haven from which to plan, train, and launch attacks into Afghanistan," said the commander, who like others spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive material.
A second military commander, who read the draft of the intelligence report, said it warns that action is needed quickly to prevent Afghanistan from heading into the "downward spiral." The secret report is expected to be completed mid-November and some conclusions could change.
Military figures show that Afghanistan has become far more dangerous for American troops than Iraq. More than twice as many Americans have died in Afghanistan than in Iraq since May, even though there are more than five times the number of U.S. troops in Iraq.
The White House has accelerated a review of how to reverse the security slide and shore up Afghan President Hamid Karzai's struggling government. Heading the review is Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, President Bush's deputy national security adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan.
Gen. David Petraeus, fresh from Iraq and tapped to head U.S. Central Command, which oversees both war zones, was in Washington on Thursday to discuss the situation.
"They are trying hard not to do anything that boxes in or locks in the next administration," said a military official familiar with the review. "We want to make sure that when we emerge into the next fighting season, the Bush administration has done as much as it can to help." Fighting in Afghanistan abates during the winter snows because of the rough mountain terrain.
With U.S. and NATO forces suffering their deadliest year so far in Afghanistan, a rising chorus of voices, including Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Gen. Petraeus, have endorsed efforts to reach out to members of the Taliban considered willing to seek an accommodation with President Hamid Karzai's government.
"That is one of the key long-term solutions in Afghanistan, just as it has been in Iraq," Gates told reporters Monday. "Part of the solution is reconciliation with people who are willing to work with the Afghan government going forward."
The administration also has announced plans to send 3,500 additional Marines to Afghanistan before year's end and then an Army brigade of about 5,000 soldiers early in 2009. As many as three additional Army brigades could follow in the months after that. Currently the U.S. has 31,000 troops in Afghanistan. There also are 31,000 troops from NATO countries and other allies.
In addition to increasing troops strength, the review covers nonmilitary options including possible expansion of the effort to combat the heroin trade, which raises up to $100 million a year for the Taliban, according to the U.S. military.
Al Qaeda and the Taliban move freely in the border area of Pakistan, enabled by friendly militant tribes. They are conducting raids into Afghanistan with increasing impunity.
Gates pushed NATO allies at a meeting in Hungary to target the narcotics production to stem the flow of cash.
The draft national intelligence estimate also blames waning Afghan support for Karzai's government on corruption, a military official said. He said the corruption primarily involves bribery, rather than government cooperation with the Taliban.
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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See all 59 CommentsPosted by Nancy_Naive
A sanitation engineer
Unfortunately,
Afghanistan may
outlast bu$HAMErica...
Posted by obanau4 at 05:45 PM : Oct 10, 2008
People like you need to be banned from these posting boards. For that matter you should be banned from the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA...
You libs are so messed up.. You can''''t even see the Good that Bush has done.. and after he is gone the good will show.. and you will want to take credit for it.. You forget that Billy BOy Clinton easedup the leanding regulations to allow poor risks to get loans.. and now it is bitin US in the @$$..
Posted by DoILookligaf at 04:37 PM : Oct 10, 2008
You have told it exactly like it is, and or was during Bill Clinton''s two terms.. Also clinton almost gutted our Military when he went into office.
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Why does this NOT surprise me???? The minute we let up on Afghanistan, Iraq,or any other place in the mid-east they will revert back to the only lifestyle they have ever known....Those people over there have a mindset that most Americans cannot even imagine, much less relate to....There is no changing them...They will do what they have done for hundreds of years.....They are barbaric, primitive neanderthals that will never change no matter how much democracy we try to impose upon them....Iraq or Afghanistan might appear to want a democratic society, but when the US is gone, the Taliban mentality will raise it''s ugly head again and it''ll be business as usual.
What do we have to show for it??? Our troops have suffered more than 4,000 deaths and our country is in financial ruin. I''m sure that Osama binLadin is having the last laugh...Strike one, Sept. ll, 2001...Strike two....October, 2008....I shudder to think what strike three will bring.....
Hey, Bu$h - is there anything more important than mideast oil???
Like the ECONOMY, stupid!
CHENEY?
USSR quit Afghanistan 13 years after attempting everything under the Sun and filed for Chapter 13. The USA still got 6 years more to go before quiting and then filing for Chapter 13.
Please be patience!
He claims we diverted funds, and more importantly our special forces troops, from Afghanistan to invade Iraq at a time when we had bin Ladden trapped in the hills.
Basically, we let him go.
We will not stand for McCain''s SOCIALIST polices.
Hahaha Oh,the irony of it all!
Posted by obanau4
I think what people wanted, including the dems, was to capture Bin Laden. Bush gave up on that cause to start another war that will cost us for several generations. Bush was the reason we stopped hunting Bin Laden which was the reason we went there. Now neither goal is achieved, so yes, it is the bushies fault.
Posted by Latrocinor
Bush has provided plenty of ammunition leading to people''s dissatisfaction. I guess you''re one of the 25% that actually approve of his policies?
Posted by CaribouBarbi
It''s not that they are clueless - it''s just that a "Hate Bush machine has been active in this country for 8 years, you being a memebr of it.
It is unfortunate that the hate machine has been effective.
THE PEOPLE have spoken and they want HATE,AND FINGER POINTING AND BLAMING AND SHAMING.
YOU WANTED IT SO YOU GOT IT, Caribou Barbie - you got just what you worked for. LOL!
Caribou Barbie, working for a world that S U C K S and suceeded.
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