WASHINGTON, Oct. 9, 2008
Afghanistan Facing "Downward Spiral"
National Intelligence Estimate Draft Report Highlights Afghanistan's Accelerated Deterioration
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The nearly completed National Intelligence Estimate, the work of 16 intelligence agencies, says Afghanistan's deterioration has accelerated alarmingly in past two months. Bush administration officials say privately that Afghanistan is now the single most pressing security threat in the fight against terrorism.
"We are doing a review to look to see what more we can do," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told reporters Thursday. "We are looking to see where some of the strengths are and how we can support those strengths and also how we can help the Afghans when there are weaknesses."
A senior U.S. commander with recent experience in Afghanistan characterized the situation as "stagnant" rather than deteriorating.
"We're not making progress. And we're not making progress because of a lack of capability in the government and because the Taliban have a safe haven from which to plan, train, and launch attacks into Afghanistan," said the commander, who like others spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive material.
A second military commander, who read the draft of the intelligence report, said it warns that action is needed quickly to prevent Afghanistan from heading into the "downward spiral." The secret report is expected to be completed mid-November and some conclusions could change.
Military figures show that Afghanistan has become far more dangerous for American troops than Iraq. More than twice as many Americans have died in Afghanistan than in Iraq since May, even though there are more than five times the number of U.S. troops in Iraq.
The White House has accelerated a review of how to reverse the security slide and shore up Afghan President Hamid Karzai's struggling government. Heading the review is Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, President Bush's deputy national security adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan.
Gen. David Petraeus, fresh from Iraq and tapped to head U.S. Central Command, which oversees both war zones, was in Washington on Thursday to discuss the situation.
"They are trying hard not to do anything that boxes in or locks in the next administration," said a military official familiar with the review. "We want to make sure that when we emerge into the next fighting season, the Bush administration has done as much as it can to help." Fighting in Afghanistan abates during the winter snows because of the rough mountain terrain.
With U.S. and NATO forces suffering their deadliest year so far in Afghanistan, a rising chorus of voices, including Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Gen. Petraeus, have endorsed efforts to reach out to members of the Taliban considered willing to seek an accommodation with President Hamid Karzai's government.
"That is one of the key long-term solutions in Afghanistan, just as it has been in Iraq," Gates told reporters Monday. "Part of the solution is reconciliation with people who are willing to work with the Afghan government going forward."
The administration also has announced plans to send 3,500 additional Marines to Afghanistan before year's end and then an Army brigade of about 5,000 soldiers early in 2009. As many as three additional Army brigades could follow in the months after that. Currently the U.S. has 31,000 troops in Afghanistan. There also are 31,000 troops from NATO countries and other allies.
In addition to increasing troops strength, the review covers nonmilitary options including possible expansion of the effort to combat the heroin trade, which raises up to $100 million a year for the Taliban, according to the U.S. military.
Al Qaeda and the Taliban move freely in the border area of Pakistan, enabled by friendly militant tribes. They are conducting raids into Afghanistan with increasing impunity.
Gates pushed NATO allies at a meeting in Hungary to target the narcotics production to stem the flow of cash.
The draft national intelligence estimate also blames waning Afghan support for Karzai's government on corruption, a military official said. He said the corruption primarily involves bribery, rather than government cooperation with the Taliban.
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Ahh...the genius of Dubya.
Obama is coming to the rescue!
One of the brothers is gonna pop a cap in Taliban azz.
Bush is the Anti-Midas - Anything he touches turns to S.H.I.T.
Needless to say, I won''t be shaking his hand...
Sgt - you are either an idiot, or a far left Obama supporter that just can''''t let go of the idea that McCain is not Bush in costume.
I had a much higher opinion of Marines before reading your rant. Why don''''t you lose the Marine connection if you are going to try to use it to give credence to your idiot opinions.
Posted by Speakinup21 at 06:45 PM : Oct 09, 2008
Which "rant" might that be?
Posted by Speakinup21 at 06:45 PM : Oct 09, 2008
Because I have 2 honorable discharges hanging on my wall that give me the right.
How many discharges have you?
I bet not a single one.
Posted by formrusmcsgt at 06:49 PM : Oct 09, 2008
Gee, you think that McCain''s espousal of Bush''s idiotic polices might have something to do with that perception of mine?
But since you asked - I am a former service member, US Army, 1974-76, with an honorable dd214.
Posted by Speakinup21 at 06:57 PM : Oct 09, 2008
If you ARE a former dogface, you apparently never met a Marine in person.
There is no such thing as a humble Marine.
No need to be.
Posted by Speakinup21 at 06:58 PM : Oct 09, 2008
You''re pretty bold hiding behind your keyboard aren''t you "hero"?
I must take my leave.
As always a pleasure.
-It will continue until Pakistan is dealt with. All the libs were soooo against Iraq and liberating those people due to American deaths, but boy are they eager beaver to throw them into the fray at the border in Afghanistan (a much more difficult terrain). Fighting at this border is at the same dangerous level if we hadn''t gone into Iraq, we''re just back to address it now and we''ll all see that more troops is certainly not going to make it any easier. Now we can have more of our military on those treacherous ridges and the terrorists will have more to pick off.
Posted by obanau4 at 07:32 PM
God Bless America! In fact, God Bless Everyone ... No Exceptions! It''s Obama time. Time for the change we need.
I remember on 9/14/2001 a TV reporter said of Afghanistan "You can''t bomb someone back to the stone age if they are already there." He was a prophet.
Afghanistan
Iraq
Georgia
Good thing he didn''t coach my little league team
Then why wouldn''t it be spiraling downward?
Afghanistan Facing "Downward Spiral"
Wow, thanks Bush. Thanks neocons. Could you possibly do anything else COMPLETELY WRONG?
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Good question. Didn''t you learn anything? Violence solves nothing. Jesus was right. How many wars is the USA going to start and lose?
How many days left do you have in office? God, it seems like decades since the Supreme Court appointed you president.
OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT?
Posted by krisinal
________
If that bothers you, then you must be really afraid of John McCain. For 30 years, he''s been chum buddies in the Senate with Senator Robert Byrd, a former KKK member (the Ku Klux Klan is currently on the FBI''s list of terrorism organizations) and former Senator Strom Thurmon, who was a strong proponent of segregation and Jim Crow laws.
Guilt by association, right? Then John McCain is absolutely un-American and would be very, very dangerous as president.
Another day and more Bush/Republican failure.
Stay the course with McSame?
Thanks but no thanks!
Now watch John McCain say "This is what success in Iraq will look like in 5 years, just like Afganistan".
John McCain is a poor excuse for a leader.
Defeated in Afganistan which help led to our economic defeat as well.
We are a fallen empire who lost the so-called Cold War.
Thanks trickle-down Ronny.
In the history book one will read in the future "it too the entire world to defeat the german armies in ww2, to defeat the american empire, it took 15 terrorists and a couple of planes".
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Posted by andrew_693 at 11:00 PM : Oct 09, 2008
+ report abuse
Not just 15 ''terrorists''. They are ''goat herders''. I don''t understand that with all the latest weapons, satellites and other equipment why can''t we kill those goat herders (terrorists/Taliban etc. etc) ??????
You may or may not agree we can''t put the blame on Pakistan. Why didn%u2019t we blame them in 2001 by the time we deployed our troops in Afghanistan? What are we doing in Afghanistan since 2001? Maybe only sending more and more troops without delivering any results on ground? There had been and has been not a single day since than that we heard some good news. Instead of putting blames on other countries, we should learn to tie up our own panties.
Afghans (including *** terrorists) are 1000 years backward in every aspect as compared to the U.S/Allied NATO and still they are pumping our ***. WHY?
Further, who is allowing them to cultivate drugs and sell in our streets?
Posted by alphaa010 at 11:36 PM
then Protection of Chinese Oil Contracts.
Tip your head back slowly, sip the koolaid. You will believe everything the Pentagoons say, and you will not remember why you resisted. Your eyes are getting heavy. You will worship Dubya.
Top 10 Bush''s accomplishments:
1. Al Quaeda resurgent in Afghanistan.
2. Bin Laden enjoying quiet retirement in Waziristan.
3. American Taxpayers paying $12 billion a month Sunni warlords to keep the surge going.
4. Iraq delivered to the Iranian mullahs at the cost of $3 trillion and over 4000 Dead American troops.
5. Meanwhile back at home, homeowners losing their homes.
6. Dow off the cliff.
7. Unemployment at all time high.
8. But there''s a silver lining here: Halliburton''s profits are through the roof.
9. ******** Cheney is laughing all the way to the bank.
10. G W Bush getting ready to enjoy his retirement in 99 acre ranch in Paraguay.
Just like america then.
They''ve been having bumper poppy crops the past few years too.
The Taliban had virtually eliminated opium production when they were in charge, since they saw it as an evil influence according to their religious beliefs.
The US has simply ignored the poppy growing resurgence - the current wisdom is that as long as they''re busy farming poppies, they are not shooting at us so much.
The Taliban sees the renewed poppy cultivation as the lesser of two evils; it provides a LOT of vital income to them, and they trust that after they have thrown us out (priority #1) they can easily go back to executing poppy growers again afterward.
The Afghan government is totally corrupt. Ancient Tribal politics are just too deeply ingrained in the culture itself to ever really change the political dynamics appreciably, for very long.
US taxpayer money, meant to build roads and schools and such, simply disappears into a black hole somewhere. Nobody really knows where it actually ends up, but it''s sure not building any roads or schools.
Contractors that were used initially on a variety of building projects have all but dried up now. The Taliban and Al Queda target the contractors relentlessly, so it''s just become too dangerous for them to go on taking contracts anymore.
It''s a real mess over there now, and not apt to get any better for many, many years, if ever.
We''re spending 10 billion dollars a month in Iraq while Afghanistan continues to unravel and the people who were actually responsible for 9/11 continue to grow stronger.
Why are Bush and McCain so clueless?
Posted by paidGOPshill at 08:43 AM : Oct 10, 2008
Hey GOPer West Virigina has moved to toss up from strong McCain Virigina has moved to Obama the reason you paid shill is because American siwng voters are through with the hardliners.
You can scream and holler all the way down but you were warn in 2006 to moderate now we swing voters will moderate you in a more permante way.
How''s that sound do you like it. I am swing voter that in the past has always given the GOP and Democrats a fair vote this election like most swing voters we are voting democrate and you know it.
Posted by Demongirl60
They''re not capable. If they grow up, they would have to be responsible and accountable for their actions. My guess is, poverty and lack of education, education they seem to avoid and refuse to the women, and their strong religious principles, will keep them about 400 years behind the rest of the world.
Posted by CaribouBarbi
It''s not that they are clueless - it''s just that a "Hate Bush machine has been active in this country for 8 years, you being a memebr of it.
It is unfortunate that the hate machine has been effective.
THE PEOPLE have spoken and they want HATE,AND FINGER POINTING AND BLAMING AND SHAMING.
YOU WANTED IT SO YOU GOT IT, Caribou Barbie - you got just what you worked for. LOL!
Caribou Barbie, working for a world that S U C K S and suceeded.
Posted by Latrocinor
Bush has provided plenty of ammunition leading to people''s dissatisfaction. I guess you''re one of the 25% that actually approve of his policies?
Posted by obanau4
I think what people wanted, including the dems, was to capture Bin Laden. Bush gave up on that cause to start another war that will cost us for several generations. Bush was the reason we stopped hunting Bin Laden which was the reason we went there. Now neither goal is achieved, so yes, it is the bushies fault.
We will not stand for McCain''s SOCIALIST polices.
Hahaha Oh,the irony of it all!
He claims we diverted funds, and more importantly our special forces troops, from Afghanistan to invade Iraq at a time when we had bin Ladden trapped in the hills.
Basically, we let him go.
USSR quit Afghanistan 13 years after attempting everything under the Sun and filed for Chapter 13. The USA still got 6 years more to go before quiting and then filing for Chapter 13.
Please be patience!
CHENEY?
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