Dems Look To Possible Obama Landslide

Politico: As Large States Shift Towards Democrat In Wake Of Economic Upheaval, Talk Of Possible Electoral Vote Rout

(The Politico)  This story was written by David Paul Kuhn.

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Three weeks of historic economic upheaval has done more than just tilt a handful of once-reliably Republican states in Barack Obama’s direction. Democratic strategists are now optimistic that the ongoing crisis could lead to a landslide Obama victory.

Four large states John McCain once seemed well-positioned to win-Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida-have in recent weeks shifted toward Obama. If Obama were to win those four states-a scenario that would represent a remarkable turn of events-he would likely surpass 350 electoral votes.

Under almost any feasible scenario, McCain cannot win the presidency if he loses any of those four states. And if Obama actually captured all four states, it would almost certainly signal a strong electoral tide that would likely sweep the Southwestern swing states-Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada-not to mention battlegrounds from New Hampshire to Iowa to Missouri.

One month ago Democratic strategist Paul Maslin, who closely tracks the electoral map, thought that perhaps Democrats would win by a couple percentage points. At best, he thought Obama might earn a slight majority as Democrats earned in 1976, the last time the party’s presidential nominee cracked the 50 percent barrier.

“Now it’s a whole different world,” Maslin said. “The economy is way beyond 1992. In 1980, it was Iran hostage crisis and the economy. I’ve never seen an issue take this kind of prominence.”

Gallup finds that 69 percent of Americans believe the economy is the most important issue facing the nation. The second most cited issue, the war in Iraq, is named by only 11 percent of voters.

Bill Clinton’s former pollster Doug Schoen calls this the “economic tsunami.”

And it’s this tsunami that has altered the electoral map in a way that Obama himself could not.

“The Obama campaign did a lot of important foundation work to expand the Democratic map. And I give them credit for that,” Maslin said. “But the real expansion of the map is coming from an outside event, namely the economy, and not the tactics of the Obama campaign.

“Obama has not changed the map,” Schoen said. The map has changed because, in light of the economic turmoil, “McCain has become an almost unacceptable alternative” to President Bush.

Only one in four Americans have a positive view of the president, according to Gallup, the lowest rating of Bush’s presidency. That is only one point above Richard Nixon’s floor, 24 percent-which he registered when disgrace forced the first presidential resignation-and just three points higher than the lowest public approval ever, which was notched by Harry Truman in 1952 during the Korean War.

Only 9 percent of Americans are “satisfied” with the direction of the United States, the lowest level since the question was first asked by the Gallup Poll in the late 1970s.

Nearly six in ten Americans believe that the United States could be on the verge of entering an economic spiral similar to the Great Depression, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll conducted over the weekend.

“These events are conspiring against McCain,” said Tony Fabrizio, the pollster for 1996 Republican nominee Bob Dole. “The only thing that we can hope is that these circumstances change in terms of being off the front page.

“We are playing defense in places we shouldn’t,” he continued, speaking of the electoral map. “It will take something ground-shaking, earth-shaking,” to reorient the map to where it was even one month ago.

It was only a month ago that McCain seemed poised to overcome the public’s poor view of the Republican Party, having literally lifted the GOP’s prospects with his own and largely escaped the political deadweight of President Bush.

That changed September 15 whe the stock market tumbled 505 points and McCain observed that that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong” before pivoting to use the language of an “economic crisis.”

“McCain could have changed the direction of the river. He could have opposed the bailout. Made clear it was a massive bailout loaded with pork. And he was not party to the Bush-Obama plan,” Schoen said.

“Barring a terrorist attack,” said Maslin, “in the face of what’s happened to the United States economy, the world economy, in the last two weeks how does this trend reverse itself?”

Multiple surveys in the past two weeks, like the CNN/ORC poll, have shown Obama with his highest-level of support in the general election.

Until September 15 Obama had only reached 50 percent support in the Gallup tracking poll once, at the peak of his Democratic convention bounce. Since September 15, Obama has at least hit 50 percent mark eight times, including for the last five days.

Tuesday, for the first time in Gallup tracking, Obama surpassed the 50 percent threshold and now leads McCain 52 to 41 percent, the largest margin of the campaign.

That same tracking shows that in the last 12 days Obama’s support has stabilized between 48 and 52 percent while McCain’s has stabilized between 41 and 44 percent, outside the bounds of the fleeting fluctuations that gave Obama his last 9 point lead following his international trip in late July.

Many veteran GOP and Democratic pollsters who have been skeptical of Obama’s effort to win red states like North Carolina now believe the economic turmoil has put them well within reach.

“Here, events have made the economy dramatically the issue. More people are concerned about the economy now than even in 1992,” said Mark Penn, who has both served as Hillary Clinton’s and Bill Clinton’s pollster. “What we are seeing is more and more voters who are saying they are voting on the economy because I don’t have any confidence from McCain and George Bush that they can handle the economy.”

Obama is seen in multiple polls as the more capable economic steward by double-digit margins. McCain had briefly drawn about even on the question following the GOP convention.

“There is the complete utter loss of faith in GOP politics,” argued Jim Jordan, a Democratic strategist. “This is chickens coming home to roost in a way that was almost unimaginable a year ago.”

[PulSamsara]

Why would America REWARD complete Republican failure ?

We wont.

[krenz4]

If Mr. Obama is going to win so big, why doesn''''t he give the money left over from his campaign to help out people who are losing their homes, instead of buying a half hour of prime time television? Seems like a big waste of a lot of money just to aggrandize himself, especially if he is going to win the election, as this article states.

Posted by oladywho
Now Can you see how stupid and irrational mccains people are? Dont hate because Obama is more popular and beat mccain at the politics game.....

[mairin27]

Big Government is not the answer to our Problem.

Community Organizers are now the cause of the problems.

The only hope is FREE ENTERPRISE, survival of the fittest
No Tax Exempt status for anyone



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by doctorcool2u at 02:26 PM : Oct 10, 2008

Jesus was a community organizer

[libh8er]

Dems Look To Possible Obama Landslide

BLAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

[cg37102006]

The tide is turning because, quite simply, in this time of economic upheaval, Obama looks and sounds more presidential. He is always calm. He doesnt lose his cool. He looks like the guy you want in charge if there are problems. As opposed to McCain who always looks and sounds tense and unsure. And fluffy bunny Palin doesnt help him , either. Obama will probably win 301 to 237 in electoral votes and by at least 5% in popular votes.

[lavander1]

Thank you X-republican....you are so right on. I hope more smart people as yourself realize how mean-spirited and vicious some people in your x-party are. You did right in leaving them. I salute you.

Lavender1

[lavander1]

It''s pathetic to see and hear some folks in America still suffering from xenophobia and racism. Barak Obama represents a breath of fresh air in this country--which at this time we desperately need. If bush/cheney had DONE THEIR JOBS RIGHT in the first place we would not be in this mess we are now. No, but they chose to outspend, outsource, invade Iraq and get this country into its over one trillion debt. When bush was selected by the US supreme court, and put into the white house, this country had a surplus and debts were paid--done by the former president Bill Clinton and his staff. Now we suffer the consequences of an irreponsible republican team sitting in the white house these past 8 years. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. We need CHANGE NOW....and a new president with innovative ideas and solutions is the answer. That is why I am voting for Obama/Biden and I truly hope that it is a landslide.

[oladywho]

If Mr. Obama is going to win so big, why doesn''t he give the money left over from his campaign to help out people who are losing their homes, instead of buying a half hour of prime time television? Seems like a big waste of a lot of money just to aggrandize himself, especially if he is going to win the election, as this article states.

[libra127]

Or it could be used by al-Qaeda to recruit more terrorist to kill more Americans.

Posted by doctorcool2u at 11:06 AM : Oct 10, 2008

Use your brain on that one, drcool (Rowdy?). Got brain?

[x-republican]

You don%u2019t lie to me and then expect me to trust you
Ayers selected Obama to manage 50 million dollars.
Posted by doctorcool2u at 11:02 AM : Oct 10, 2008

I left the republican party because I thought republicans were just evil and dishonest like doctorcool2u, but now I believe they are so psychologically screwed up that they actually believe their own lies. They have a penchant to commit some of the most heinous crimes and while the blood is still dripping from their hands, they claim it was the other guy with all the sincerity of a pathological liar. Look at McCain talking about the GREED on Wall Street. His party was the architect of all that GREED -- he voted to let that GREED run wild. Now, with blood on his hands, he has the audacity to tell us we should trust him to fix the problem. Give me a break!

[libra127]

We in the USA may not look at Obama as a Muslim, but the Arab Nations will.

Posted by doctorcool2u at 10:56 AM : Oct 10, 2008

That might be a very good thing. They would be LESS likely to attack the US if they think President Obama is Muslim. LOL

[libra127]

And why did Obama lie and act like he did''n know him.

Posted by doctorcool2u at 12:00 AM : Oct 10, 2008

Well, we''re back where we started. In my opinion, Obama did not lie about Ayers. He did not say he didn''t know him. When it came up in the last debate of the Dem. primaries, Obama acknowledged that they''d sat on a couple boards at the same time and that they lived in the same neighborhood. That''s really all there is to it. But it''s just too easy for the McCain-Palin campaign to try to sling mud by insinuating that "there''s something more" to it. McCain is desperate and will try any lie if he thinks it will help him win.

There is just nothing sinister about Obama''s connection with Bill Ayers.

[libra127]

Ayers selected Obama to manage 50 million dollars.

Posted by doctorcool2u at 12:17 AM : Oct 10, 2008

Ayers recommended Obama to the Annenberg Foundation to head the Board that was to hand out grants (Annenberg money) for school reform projects in Chicago. What''s the problem with that?

[mensarino]

Drcool---I sure hope that you are a doctor in name only.It''s a truly scary thought that such drivel could possibly come from an educated person.

[heuristic1]

It4s almost as though McCain is traitously hoping for a terroist attack on our country to reverse his political fortunes. Could possibly be THAT sick?

[libra127]

Frankly, I do not see what the problem is. There is NO evidence of a lie by Obama about his relationship with Ayers. I don''t see anything ominous at all about Obama working with Ayers on the Annenberg project or the Woods Foundation. They were both concerned with educational reform. I don''t have a problem with the political tea at Ayers house that Obama and his sponsor Alice Palmer attended.

It is clear that Ayers rehabilitated himself a long time ago. He is a Distinguished Professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago. He won an award as Chicago Citizen of the Year in 1997. He''s written or edited some 15 scholarly books. He has the endorsement of the Mayor of Chicago.

The claim that Ayers is "unrepentent" has been misreported and/or misinterpreted. He did NOT say the Weather Underground did not set enough bombs in the 60''s. He said "I wish we''d done more to try to end the [VietNam] war". That''s quite a different statement than the one attributed to Ayers by Obama opponents.

In short, I see no problem with Obama''s relationship with Ayers.

[zaqxsw22]

John McCain and George W. Bush%u2019s Republican party exists solely for the betterment of corporations and the wealthy (look how they govern!), but they sucker the white lower middle-class into voting against their own economic interests by throwing divisive wedge issues at them that appeal to their basest instincts: racist, homophobic, etc, while hiding behind fake religious piety. When it works, it works, and when it doesn''t the GOP just tries to outright steal elections through bogus voter purges, and voting machine manipulation. The GOP deceptively distracts working-class whites with the southern strategy while at the same time destroying their economic future by governing exclusively for the top 1%.

[mensarino]

5% would not cover the costs of the bailout AND the Bush fiasco in Iraq.

[mensarino]

Worldnetdaily is known as a right wing source----no pretense of objectivity.Within the journalistic community it is a pariah.

[dlestx]

Listen to the arguments of the Obama/Biden ticket; listen to the vitriol coming out of the liberals in Congress; listen to any liberal candidate. THEY CAN''T BE WRONG AND CONSERVATIVES CAN''T BE RIGHT. The liberals seize upon the current economic woes and any sign of failure, blaming this administration and conservatives in general, washing their hands of this mess. Yet it''s clear there is enough blame for everyone.

What we need right now is a bipartisan approach to solving the issues at hand. Both tickets claim to provide this. Yet the attitude that I%u2019M RIGHT /YOU%u2019RE WRONG! will not promote working together to solve the issues we face.

McCain/Palin can do what Obama/Biden can not.