Oct 9, 2008
Dems Look To Possible Obama Landslide
Politico: As Large States Shift Towards Democrat In Wake Of Economic Upheaval, Talk Of Possible Electoral Vote Rout
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Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., steps out of the car on the tarmac before he boards his campaign plane at the airport in Indianapolis, Ind. Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2008. (AP)
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Barack Obama
A look at the life and meteoric rise of the president-elect.
Three weeks of historic economic upheaval has done more than just tilt a handful of once-reliably Republican states in Barack Obama’s direction. Democratic strategists are now optimistic that the ongoing crisis could lead to a landslide Obama victory.
Four large states John McCain once seemed well-positioned to win-Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida-have in recent weeks shifted toward Obama. If Obama were to win those four states-a scenario that would represent a remarkable turn of events-he would likely surpass 350 electoral votes.
Under almost any feasible scenario, McCain cannot win the presidency if he loses any of those four states. And if Obama actually captured all four states, it would almost certainly signal a strong electoral tide that would likely sweep the Southwestern swing states-Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada-not to mention battlegrounds from New Hampshire to Iowa to Missouri.
One month ago Democratic strategist Paul Maslin, who closely tracks the electoral map, thought that perhaps Democrats would win by a couple percentage points. At best, he thought Obama might earn a slight majority as Democrats earned in 1976, the last time the party’s presidential nominee cracked the 50 percent barrier.
“Now it’s a whole different world,” Maslin said. “The economy is way beyond 1992. In 1980, it was Iran hostage crisis and the economy. I’ve never seen an issue take this kind of prominence.”
Gallup finds that 69 percent of Americans believe the economy is the most important issue facing the nation. The second most cited issue, the war in Iraq, is named by only 11 percent of voters.
Bill Clinton’s former pollster Doug Schoen calls this the “economic tsunami.”
And it’s this tsunami that has altered the electoral map in a way that Obama himself could not.
“The Obama campaign did a lot of important foundation work to expand the Democratic map. And I give them credit for that,” Maslin said. “But the real expansion of the map is coming from an outside event, namely the economy, and not the tactics of the Obama campaign.
“Obama has not changed the map,” Schoen said. The map has changed because, in light of the economic turmoil, “McCain has become an almost unacceptable alternative” to President Bush.
Only one in four Americans have a positive view of the president, according to Gallup, the lowest rating of Bush’s presidency. That is only one point above Richard Nixon’s floor, 24 percent-which he registered when disgrace forced the first presidential resignation-and just three points higher than the lowest public approval ever, which was notched by Harry Truman in 1952 during the Korean War.
Only 9 percent of Americans are “satisfied” with the direction of the United States, the lowest level since the question was first asked by the Gallup Poll in the late 1970s.
Nearly six in ten Americans believe that the United States could be on the verge of entering an economic spiral similar to the Great Depression, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll conducted over the weekend.
“These events are conspiring against McCain,” said Tony Fabrizio, the pollster for 1996 Republican nominee Bob Dole. “The only thing that we can hope is that these circumstances change in terms of being off the front page.
“We are playing defense in places we shouldn’t,” he continued, speaking of the electoral map. “It will take something ground-shaking, earth-shaking,” to reorient the map to where it was even one month ago.
It was only a month ago that McCain seemed poised to overcome the public’s poor view of the Republican Party, having literally lifted the GOP’s prospects with his own and largely escaped the political deadweight of President Bush.
That changed September 15 whe the stock market tumbled 505 points and McCain observed that that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong” before pivoting to use the language of an “economic crisis.”
“McCain could have changed the direction of the river. He could have opposed the bailout. Made clear it was a massive bailout loaded with pork. And he was not party to the Bush-Obama plan,” Schoen said.
“Barring a terrorist attack,” said Maslin, “in the face of what’s happened to the United States economy, the world economy, in the last two weeks how does this trend reverse itself?”
Multiple surveys in the past two weeks, like the CNN/ORC poll, have shown Obama with his highest-level of support in the general election.
Until September 15 Obama had only reached 50 percent support in the Gallup tracking poll once, at the peak of his Democratic convention bounce. Since September 15, Obama has at least hit 50 percent mark eight times, including for the last five days.
Tuesday, for the first time in Gallup tracking, Obama surpassed the 50 percent threshold and now leads McCain 52 to 41 percent, the largest margin of the campaign.
That same tracking shows that in the last 12 days Obama’s support has stabilized between 48 and 52 percent while McCain’s has stabilized between 41 and 44 percent, outside the bounds of the fleeting fluctuations that gave Obama his last 9 point lead following his international trip in late July.
Many veteran GOP and Democratic pollsters who have been skeptical of Obama’s effort to win red states like North Carolina now believe the economic turmoil has put them well within reach.
“Here, events have made the economy dramatically the issue. More people are concerned about the economy now than even in 1992,” said Mark Penn, who has both served as Hillary Clinton’s and Bill Clinton’s pollster. “What we are seeing is more and more voters who are saying they are voting on the economy because I don’t have any confidence from McCain and George Bush that they can handle the economy.”
Obama is seen in multiple polls as the more capable economic steward by double-digit margins. McCain had briefly drawn about even on the question following the GOP convention.
“There is the complete utter loss of faith in GOP politics,” argued Jim Jordan, a Democratic strategist. “This is chickens coming home to roost in a way that was almost unimaginable a year ago.”
By David Paul Kuhn
Copyright 2008 POLITICO
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See all 610 Comments--Posted by LibH8er at 11:46 AM : Oct 09, 2008
Hey doooooood,
How about if I send this post to yoooo the day after the election, when yooo are the looooooser?
Repubs have done this to themselves. Completely shot themselves in the foot.
Posted by jon_mccain at 08:57 PM : Oct 08, 2008
We as a Nation are in very deep trouble and all some people can do is scream about putting a Socialist into the White House.
GOD HELP THIS COUNTRY........
Repubs have done this to themselves. Completely shot themselves in the foot.
Posted by hatesthecolt
-------
If the poll was swinging the other way libh8er would be celebrating it instead of trashing it....
Romney knows about business and the economy. Instead of choosing Romney economic intelligence, McCain chose a VP based on popularity.
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Posted by bellschotsch
Nice try! That was how many years ago? Before internet, cell phones, etc? Polls more recently have been MUCH MORE accurate. Oh, yeah it''s possible... I am convinced there are some folks who would never vote for a black man but dont'' want to admit it and os are lying, but it''s not enough to make a difference.
Comtemplating the Presidency from a World''s observation of this race. This "Average JO" does not to worry that the President of these United States would in the future make a "smart-mouth" statement to another World Leader. A President needs to show Presidential qualities and have some class in speech. Plus, not appearing like a "sneaky child" who just got away with something with his laughter.
Personally, the only place I feel it is ok to be "smart-mouth" and show "sneaky childlike behavior and laughter" would be on the David Letterman show.
We wont.
It''s just like 1976?"
Hey bellschotsch you really need to get out of the 70''s. I am a little surprised you can even get on the internet. I didn''t say it was over, I said the polls are a lot more accurate now, so wishing for a 10 point differential between polling and actual numbers is probably not REALISTIC.
It''s also no more reasonable to compare Obama to Carter than it was to compare Clinton to Carter but it''s a nice try.
You really need to get out of the past!
PACK-istan or POCK-istan.
UGH!
I am writing in Hillary!
I refuse to vote for Obama and reward the DNC for allowing the media to pick my candidate for me. And not stopping to defend Hillary from the blatant sexism being shown by the media.
Come on - you posted that one yesterday. Who, in their right mind would believe anything found on http://politicallydrunk.blogs!!!! Then, of course, you are a GOPig after all.
Not taking issues on Obamas faith,none of my business,but I do not think God would be to happy with the guy who married him and the words he used.How much influance did he have on Obama after 20 yrs.?
deregulation policy. It''s like the ''pot trying to call the kettle
black.''
New York Times - Five Years Ago
The following article reported in the
New York Times five years ago. You won''t hear this from the liberal
media !!
It seems that the Bush administration
proposed increased oversight and regulation of Fannie and Freddie, but
Democrats fought it. Here''s the article:
''The Bush administration today
recommended the most significant regulatory overhaul in the housing
finance industry since the savings and loan crisis a decade ago. Under
the plan, disclosed at a Congressional hearing today, a new agency would
be created within the Treasury Department to assume supervision of
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored companies that are
the two largest players in the mortgage lending industry. The new
agency would have the authority, which now rests with Congress, to set
one of the two capital-reserve requirements for the companies. It would
exercise authority over any new lines of business.
Won''t this cost him the vote in Florida?
McCain plans on funding his health care tax incentive by cutting Medicare and Medicaid. $1.3 billion over 10 years.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122315505846605217.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_mostpop#printMode
Posted by specialty8 at 12:33 PM : Oct 09, 2008
You either must live in a bubble or be the dumbest creature that walks the earth. The Republicans have increased our debt that is borrow to spend by over $5,000,000,000,000 dollars. Yes, that is right 12 zero''s. That makes you just like the reactionary muslims they vote party over county and will die for their party.
deregulation policy. It''s like the ''pot trying to call the kettle
black.''
New York Times - Five Years Ago
The following article reported in the
New York Times five years ago. You won''t hear this from the liberal
media !!
It seems that the Bush administration
proposed increased oversight and regulation of Fannie and Freddie, but
Democrats fought it. Here''s the article:
''The Bush administration today
recommended the most significant regulatory overhaul in the housing
finance industry since the savings and loan crisis a decade ago. Under
the plan, disclosed at a Congressional hearing today, a new agency would
be created within the Treasury Department to assume supervision of
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored companies that are
the two largest players in the mortgage lending industry. The new
agency would have the authority, which now rests with Congress, to set
one of the two capital-reserve requirements for the companies. It would
exercise authority over any new lines of business.
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/make_believe_maverick_the_real_john_mccain
Posted by bellschotsch
After what Nixon had done to the country, anyone who the democrats ran would have won. Just think. Bush has left himself 1 point better than Nixon.
When Rasmussen, the poll bought and paid for by Fox, has Obama up by 7 y''all might as well quit now.
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Posted by NObama_SWD
At least they are "promising something New" While McCain promised more of the same Bush stuff...
I''ve had enough so I''ll take my chance with the new stuff.
deregulation policy. It''s like the ''pot trying to call the kettle
black.''
New York Times - Five Years Ago
The following article reported in the
New York Times five years ago. You won''t hear this from the liberal
media !!
It seems that the Bush administration
proposed increased oversight and regulation of Fannie and Freddie, but
Democrats fought it. Here''s the article:
''The Bush administration today
recommended the most significant regulatory overhaul in the housing
finance industry since the savings and loan crisis a decade ago. Under
the plan, disclosed at a Congressional hearing today, a new agency would
be created within the Treasury Department to assume supervision of
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored companies that are
the two largest players in the mortgage lending industry. The new
agency would have the authority, which now rests with Congress, to set
one of the two capital-reserve requirements for the companies. It would
exercise authority over any new lines of business.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted by steve777a
Same treatment: "quick drop and a sudden stop"?? For Bush? It''ll have to be carried out at G.Bay Cuba for poetic justice.
determine whether the two are adequately managing the risks of their
ballooning portfolios.'' Democrats pushed back. ''Among the groups
denouncing the proposal today were the National Association of Home
Builders and Congressional Democrats who fear that tighter regulation of
the companies could sharply reduce their commitment to financing
low-income and affordable housing''. ''These two entities, Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac, are not facing any kind of financial crisis'', said Barney
Frank of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the Financial Services
Committee. ''The more people exaggerate these problems, the more
pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of
affordable housing.''
Representative Melvin L. Watt, Democrat
of North Carolina, agreed. ''I don''t see much other than a shell game
going on here, moving something from one agency to another and in the
process weakening the bargaining power of poorer families and their
ability to get affordable housing,'' Mr. Watt said.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted by Obiden08
You are exactly right OBiden08... he is posting pure *** all over the website. Just ignore!
Posted by NObama_SWD at 12:53 PM : Oct 09, 2008
I''''m voting for Obama, not McCommunism.
Posted by ObamaUberAll at 12:54 PM : Oct 09, 2008
==============
Bottom line, if you are voting for the 50%-Amerifrican neo-Marxist, you prove yourself to be considerably less American than myself and millions more real Americans.
_______
What qualifies someone as a "REAL" American? As a Canadian, I''m absolutely fascinated to learn.
Posted by NObama_SWD at 12:58 PM : Oct 09, 2008
You do realize that America is just not buying your koolaid anymore right. Virgina just went blue it is over with. And by the way Troopergate has legs. Not only will Sarah be going back to Alaska but she most likely will not be re-elected.
-----
Do people in the USA really think like this? What if the weather''s bad and elderly people find it hard to get out?
However, when it comes out that Obama defrauded the US by virtue of not being natural born. I am afraid that the US ECONOMY will be in ABSOLUTE turmoil.
When the rest of America finds out that president Obama couldn''t provide his ''original'' birth certificate as IRREFUTABLE PROOF that he is eligible to be President, we will LOSE ALL FAITH IN OUR ECONOMY.
---
Huh?
TRUST, BUT VERIFY.
Google it for yourself. The FEDERAL JUDGE will decided Berg v Obama 08cv04083.
As president, Obama will tax 5% of the population to carry the 95% tax cut AND the TRILLION dollar budget.
My employer is in that top 5%. I hope he does''nt respond by CUTTING me out of his pie. I don''t like him. But I need this job.
What use is Obama''s tax cut when I can''t get a job!
Employers aren''t patriotic. They just care about the money. If they have less, they''ll hire less!
Fair enough, his name is Barack Hussein Obama and I hope you will also THANK US when the United States is a great nation again.
I certainly haven''t blamed anyone for the last 8 years except the bozos who voted for W TWICE ... oh and Rove who washed their brains.
Nothing I offered above can be disproven, for I speak fact.
If your nation means no more to you than what you demonstrate by voting for this 50%-Amerifrican neo-Marxist, you simply aren''''t nearly as American as I am.
Please stop protesting...You have made your bed, go sleep in it.
---
Well I suppose they''re "protesting" what they perceive as lies. Nothing immoral about that.
And, this may seem obvious to some, but just because something can''t be disproven, doesn''t make it fact. Some might say Obama is an alien from the Planet Zetox. Technically, there''s no way to disprove this, is there?
You call yourself "more American" yet you tell others to stop expressing themselves. What could be less American, sir?
Drop the rage and bigotry. You''ll be a more likeable American.
Posted by specialty8
How on earth do you equate Obama with Mugabee? Do you realy think Obama is going to kick white farmers off their land? Give me a break! They have nothing in common but race! Do I have to spell out what that makes you, besides A f-ing MORON!!!
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