Obama Boosted By Expanded Voter Rolls
Washington Post: Registration Gains In Key States Poised To Help Democrats
-
Play CBS Video
Video
Obama, McCain On The Attack
With only a month to Election Day, both presidential campaigns are accusing the other of ties to questionable characters, reports Chip Reid. Harry Smith talks to advisers from both campaigns.
-
Photo
Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., left, and Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., face off at a presidential debate at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, Miss., Friday, Sept. 26, 2008. (AP)
-
In-Depth
Ways To Win
Calculate your own path to the presidency with CBSNews.com's electoral vote prediction map.
-
CBS Evening News
Presidential Questions
Katie Couric asks Barack Obama and John McCain questions of politics, policy and character.
As the deadline for voter registration arrives today in many states, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is poised to benefit from a wave of newcomers to the rolls in key states in numbers that far outweigh any gains made by Republicans.
In the past year, the rolls have expanded by about 4 million voters in a dozen key states -- 11 Obama targets that were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 (Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico) plus Pennsylvania, the largest state carried by Sen. John F. Kerry that Sen. John McCain is targeting.
In Florida, Democratic registration gains this year are more than double those made by Republicans; in Colorado and Nevada the ratio is 4 to 1, and in North Carolina it is 6 to 1. Even in states with nonpartisan registration, the trend is clear -- of the 310,000 new voters in Virginia, a disproportionate share live in Democratic strongholds.
Republicans acknowledge the challenge but say Obama still has to prove he can get the new voters to the polls.
"The machine that has been put in place by the Democrats is effective. They have a lot of people holding clipboards," said Brian K. Krolicki (R) , the lieutenant governor of Nevada. But he added: "There's a difference between successful registration and a groundswell. It's mechanics versus momentum."
The Obama campaign says it expects the numbers of new voters in swing states to swell even more later this month as elections offices process the tens of thousands of registrations still pouring in. And it exudes confidence about its ability to turn the new voters out with a vigorous follow-up operation. "This a lesson we learned. The old-fashioned way of registering voters was to stand on the corner of the street, stand on the campus quad and register one by one, which we still do," said Jon Carson, the campaign's national field director. "But another important component is getting people the information they need to participate."
Obama, who led a major voter drive in Chicago in 1992, has stressed voter registration from the outset of his campaign, seeing younger or disaffected Americans as a crucial pool of support. The campaign intensified its outreach over the summer, dispatching hundreds of staff members and volunteers to states with large percentages of unregistered voters.
Complementing its efforts are organizations that have been registering hundreds of thousands on their own, such as Democracia USA, which registers Hispanic voters; ACORN, the anti-poverty group; and Women's Voices, Women Vote, which targets unmarried women. More generally, this year's registration tilt is part of a broader shift since 2004 away from Republican affiliation, particularly among younger and Hispanic voters and among college-educated professionals in former GOP strongholds such as New Hampshire, Colorado, and the suburbs of Philadelphia and Northern Virginia.
In Florida, 800,000 voters have been added to the rolls this year, fewer than were added in 2004. The secretary of state's office attributes the drop to registration efforts reaching a saturation point and to the slowing of the state's population growth since 2004.
But the Democratic edge is still more apparent than it was in 2004, when Republicans made a big push to register evangelical Christians in the state. As of Sept. 1, the most recent date for which new registrations are divided by party, Democratic rolls were up by 316,000 and GOP rolls by 129,000 this year. The GOP figure falls short of the gain of 155,000 among independents.
This year's additions expanded the Democrats' registration edge in Florida to half a million voters, a gap expected to grow by Election Day as the thousands of voters who have signed up since Sept. 1 are added to the party totals.
The ratio is more lopsided in North Carolina, where Democrats have added 208,000 voters this year. The 34,000 voters the Republicans have added lags well behind the 148,000 new independents. Four years ago, when Bush won the state with 56 percent of the vote, the picture was different -- Democrats added 192,000 voters during all of 2004, but Republicans nearly matched them with 179,000 new voters of their own.
A disproportionate share of the new voters in North Carolina are minorities. At the start of the year, white voters in the state outnumbered blacks by nearly 4 to 1, and Hispanic voters by 10 to 1. Yet the 146,000 black and Hispanic voters added to the rolls represented nearly three-quarters of the growth among white voters.
Gary Pearce, a Democratic political consultant in North Carolina, said the gap in new registrations is a big reason he thinks Democrats have a chance of carrying the state for the first time since 1976. "It's huge. You talk about a surge -- we think we're going to see it here," Pearce said.
Many of the registration gains in North Carolina and elsewhere came during the nominating battle between Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. While resulting in a long and costly primary season, it also helped draw voters onto the Democratic rolls.
In Nevada, site of a highly competitive Democratic caucus in late January, the party has this year added 91,000 people to the rolls in a state that Bush carried by 21,000 votes in 2004. Republicans added 22,000 voters, while 26,000 independents have been added. Republicans outnumbered Democrats in the Silver State at the start of 2007, but registered Republicans now trail Democrats by 81,000.
The primaries produced an even bigger boost in Pennsylvania. In addition to several hundred thousand new voters registered as Democrats, tens of thousands of independent voters and Republicans switched their affiliation to vote for Obama or Clinton.Ways To Win
Calculate your own path to the presidency with our Electoral Vote prediction map.
Some of them may vote for McCain, but the numbers are nonetheless eye-catching. This year, 474,000 Democrats have been added to the rolls in Pennsylvania -- while the GOP rolls have actually lost 38,000 voters. In 2004, there were 357,000 Democrats added and 66,000 Republicans.
In Virginia, where Obama volunteers have been a constant presence at Metro stations and grocery stores in Democratic areas, there are 310,000 more voters than at year's start. That compares with 210,000 new voters over the same stretch in 2004.
Although voters do not register by party in Virginia, there have been increases of 10 percent, or close to it, in the Democratic strongholds of Arlington County, Alexandria, Norfolk, Newport News and Richmond, which combined have added 58,000 voters. Similarly, in Missouri, where registration is also nonpartisan, an outsized share of the roughly 200,000 new registrations this year have been in greater St. Louis -- suburban St. Louis County, which now leans Democratic, is close to having one-fifth of the state's voters.
In Colorado, which Bush won by 100,000 votes in 2004, Republicans were well in the lead for registrations at the start of the year but are now on the verge of being overtaken. By Sept. 1, Democratic registration was up by 80,000, partly because of the Democrats-only caucuses in February. That far exceeds the gain of 28,000 unaffiliated voters and 21,000 Republicans. In New Mexico, which Bush won by 6,000 votes in 2004, Democrats have added 40,000 voters since last year, compared with 12,000 Republicans.
Voter drives have been a lower priority in states with less growth and turnover. Michigan has registered an increase of 160,000 voters this year, small for a state its size and less than what it recorded in 2004. Ohio, the scene of such intensive organizing in years past, has seen roughly the same growth in new voters as in 2004 (it does not break down registrations by party). Indiana's growth has been roughly equal to that of 2004; in Wisconsin, voters can register on Election Day.
In several states, registration gains may not be enough for Obama. His campaign deployed dozens of staffers to Georgia, with an emphasis on seeking out the estimated half-million eligible African Americans there who do not vote. Volunteers from across the country spent hours in the summer heat at bus stations and in housing projects in small cities such as Macon and Columbus, and as of Sept. 1, the state's rolls had grown by 350,000 voters, surpassing the gain of 270,000 for all of 2004. But last month, the campaign began pulling staffers out of Georgia, deciding the gap was too wide in a state that Bush won with 58 percent in 2004.
Obama's investment in voter registration has taken some of the burden off the nonprofit groups that did much of that work in 2004, but they are still active. The groups are not allowed to coordinate with the campaign, but they try to target separate areas to avoid overlap.
In Florida, a network of most of the nonprofit groups doing registration work estimates that it has registered about 440,000 of the 800,000 voters added in the state this year, said Bob Schaeffer, a network coordinator.
The Obama campaign predicts that 80 percent of the voters it is registering will support the Democrat, and that 75 percent will turn out, a rate it bases on turnout during the primaries. That means that for every 100,000 voters it registers, it would net a 45,000-vote edge on Election Day. In Virginia, that projection would mean an extra four percentage points from this year's new voters in a state that Bush won by eight points in 2004.
Donald Green, a Yale political scientist, said history suggests turnout rates lower than 75 percent among truly newly registered voters. The Obama campaign's higher rates of turnout during the primaries may have been boosted by voters who were re-registering at a new address or under a new party, he said. "New registrants tend to vote at reasonably high rates but not very high rates," he said. "Most surge in turnout comes from already registered voters."
But Pearce, the North Carolina consultant, speculated that this year's election might shatter some of those expectations, based on the energy he is seeing and the reach of Obama's get-out-the-vote operation there. "It's the enthusiasm gap," he said. He added: "They'll get a lot of them out on Election Day. I'm not an organization guy -- I'm skeptical of the people who think the organization is going to turn it all. But they've made me a believer."
By Alec MacGillis and Alice Crites
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Ways To Win


- 1
- 2
- next
See all 87 CommentsSay good morning to President Elect Obama.
It''s the fact that the republican fascists on this site will have to salute President Obama for the next 8 years!
Building projects that run overbudget, and behind schedule.
According to reports, the Democratic presidential candidate wrote a letter to the Bush administration that was never disclosed publicly and ghostwritten for him by a consultant for the Chicago Housing Authority, which wanted the money.
Ethics watchdogs frown upon such a practice, and critics told the newspaper that Obama''s role raises questions about a conflict of interest and whether he is truly the reformer he claims to be.
One of the developers for the Stateway Project is a firm headed by Allison Davis, one of Obama''s early mentors and a longtime political supporter, the Times reports.
The Bush administration approved Obama''s request, awarding a $20 million competitive grant last month from the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Financial support from the Fannie and Freddie executives, Foreign donations from obsure supporters. All buried by the press, and the political machines in Washington.
Let me hear Obama say that in the first one hundred days in office he will ban earmarks, and finally instituite campaign reform.
Its going to be a FRICKIN FANTASTIC DEBATE tomorrow night John McCain''s campaign is faltering and now they are going to Launch Swift Boat attacks on Obama because McLame has nothing new to offer and no new fresh Ideas.
Vote Obama !
Democratic landslide!
Say good morning to President Elect Obama.
Democratic LandSlide for sure !!!!!!
Then why are the Republicans so worried?
could it be that they now understand that 2006 was not a fluke.
When the American people say jump we except our public servants to jump then ask how high not tell us they are the deciders.
Be sure to reduce energy supplies, so that I may contribute more to heating my home, and that my country is indebted to Mr. Chavez and his unlimited supply of oil.
Move forward America Obama, enslave our paychecks, our international independance.
Obama / Biden 4 ever!!!
The latest nationwide Rasmussen poll shows Obama with a 52-44 percent lead over McCain. A George Washington University poll gave Obama a 50-43 percent edge. And the latest Gallup survey shows Obama leading 50-44 percent. The GOP ticket is also trailing in states that until a few weeks ago were considered battlegrounds.
Sarah Palin, Barack Obama was 8 years old in the 1960s you stupid ignorant ______________.
Barack Obama has dismissed inquiries about his relationship with Ayers, a founder of the Weather Underground, by saying that he was just "a guy who lives in my neighborhood."
FACT- Obama served from 1995 to 1999 as chairman of the board of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge (CAC), the brainchild of Ayers, an organization that funneled some $100 million into the hands of community organizers and activists, including ACORN, in order to radicalize Chicago''s public schools.
Funny aside: My ex-husband was mentally deranged and accused me of having an affair with President Kennedy..only problem was I was 8 when he was in office!! LOL McCain and my ex must have shared a room at the looney bin!!!
The desparation to grasp onto something that the world will only know once. The wizards of illusion bring forth Obama, and the grand wizard has so enchanted his people with is brilliance, and auh inducing presence.
But look behind the curtain, but a angry man, and his minions of power, control the puppet. The dis-illusion that shall befall the people, as they awake from their dream, to find that they are no longer in Kansas, and that the Tornado that blew threw took their home, and now they have only their ruby shoes and can only wish to go back....
Posted by dicktracy200
I think most people are already doing that. Conservatives turn to Fox to hear their POV affirmed. Liberals turn to MSNBC to hear theirs. Independents flock to CNN, especially for Lou Dobbs. NPR truly tries to be unbiased, although conservatives would disagree. For campaign coverage, you can''t beat C-Span...no editing or commentary!
GRANDPA McMunster that pretty funny ! and very true.
Republican:1984
Republican:1988
3
Democrap:1992
Democrap:1996
2
Republican:2000
Republican:2004
Republican:2008?
3?
Let''s continue the cycle.Vote John McCain this November. Thank You.
Obama, has been created by the less than clean politics of Chicago, has been financed by the powerful.
Now compare, this 20+ years in the Washington sespool and only having stepped in waste, or being the raised in the waste.
Posted by mdwoman
I did a search on "Bill Gavin FBI Fox News Oct 6 2008" and found NOTHING. I went to the Fox News site and did the same search. Still NOTHING. If he had been on Fox News, SOMETHING would have come up. The fact that not even a blog on the subject came up suggests that this is a flat-out lie.
To quote a great Republican:
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time."
Abraham Lincoln
follow this link...the washington times...you can see the corruption of Obama''s friends...or would you rather say there is nothing dare...scared to look into the wizards eyes...
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/oct/03/fbi-raids-obama-friends-office/
Bye bye!
Posted by repub4you001
Your friend''s a moron then.
Posted by Nellybelly52
The Washington Times is as much a foghorn for the right that Faux Noise is. Show me something like this quoted in the Washington Post, the real newspaper, and I''ll believe it.
Posted by mr22582
Nothing like desperation to bring out the pig in GOPig. The country is NOT going to be swiftboated again. Unfortunately there were enough idiots last go round to believe those lies so that the country was Bushwhacked a second time - you''re SOL this time. GOPig lies will be treated as such.
I vet all candidates I consider. Obama''s associations are no better or worse than those of other candidates. Obama has his Ayers, McCain has his Liddy. Obama has his Wright, McCain has his Haggee and Parsley. If McCain were still independent of Bush''s operatives, I would seriously consider him. I think a President and Congress of different parties keeps a good check on both. However, thanks to the egregious assaults on civil liberties and funneling of taxpayer monies to cronies via no-bid contracts that the Bushies conducted, there needs to be a thorough housecleaning before I would consider another Republican regime. McCain turned his campaign over to the corrupt Bushies, so he loses my vote.
Well said.
Posted by repub4you001 at 01:07 PM : Oct 06, 2008
The GOPigs 4 years should have been up in 1984 when that sanctimonious creep Ray-gun was re-elected.
In some countries it is a law you must vote. Not sure what effect that would produce in the US.
This issue has been studied for many years. In a society such as the US with a high degree of political freedom, the poor tend to vote in persons who they believe will send more money their way. So, the poor are just as greedy as everyone else. Worse, politicians pander to their expectations by making outrageous promises to fix all their woes and remove all their pain. That''s whay Obama does, and Pelosi, and others do.
President OBAMA will bring pride n` respect back to united state,we almost lost all now in global rating.No country care about what any of our leaders got to say anymore. Thanks to bush for the shameful crown he brought to white-house, house where lies and arrogant originate.
I don''t know where they are getting all their stats, but I would question everything the media spits out. Then again, the people I know are a miniscule cross-section of voters. Still, I just really question the analysts who think they know what everyone is thinking. Look what happened with exit polls in 2004, and how dubious their value is now known to be.
Posted by repub4you001
NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO ............
Most Republicans in Washinton will be losing their jobs in a month due to pitiful job performance.
Posted by repub4you001
Is your friend a water-head? Are you?
After this election, you''''ll have to go back to wearing hoods and burning crosses to get attention.
Posted by StormeyTexan
Naw, They''ll just rehire Ken Starr to peek through the keyhole of the Obama Bedroom.
Posted by matter77 at 01:56 PM : Oct 06, 2008
I don''t know were you live but EVERY place I''ve gone there is NO question as to the story being right on the mark. There''s a LOT of VERY angry people out here as there should be. LOOK at what the Republican''s and McSame were handed in 2000 and look at where we are NOW! Oh yes! If I were a Right Wing Nut, I''d be looking for a rock to hid under.. the Tidal Wave headed your way will most certainly bury you!
Posted by matter77 at 01:50 PM : Oct 06, 2008
YOU''VE got to be kidding!! Sparky pull up the debates of 2000 and LISTEN to what the Liar in Chief Promised. HE didn''t need a lock box for Social Security. He was going to give all the rich fat cats a tax cut AND all that money would trickle down to those on the bottom. He''d cut spending and KEEP the budget balanced. NEVER in the history of this nation has ANY politician LIED to more people, promising them MORE and delivering LESS than Bush. Now McSame wants to just continue the Bush Policy? You''d have to be close to insane to buy that tried old garbage again... INSANE
Posted by matter77 at 01:59 PM : Oct 06, 2008
BAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHA A Neocon supporter of the WORST President in our History, someone who comes on here on a daily basis spewing the Reich Message as it was sent out by their Propaganda Ministry is telling someone ELSE to think for themselves. NOW that is funny!!
http://joeland7.wordpress.com/2008/09/28/mccain-lied-about-his-divorce-and-remarriage
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted by matter77 at 01:59 PM : Oct 06, 2008
I wouldn''t point fingers matter........Where do YOU..get all your info?? FAUX news......Newsmax? LOL
FAUX News............sez it all....LMAO
matter77........Just like your descendant you are out of touch with real-world.You represent the old league !!
Time for change and to turn this around.
Posted by matter77 at 01:56 PM : Oct 06, 2008
Just another bushite in denial. Man! Don''t these toe tapping losers EVER take responsibilty for their actions. These people need to grow up!
please tell us how can we put food on the table for the family and send our sick kids to hospital NOW!
To cheat every way the tax like Palins?
- 1
- 2
- next
See all 87 Comments