Oct. 6, 2008
CBS Poll: Presidential Race Tightens
Survey Shows Obama Leading McCain 47 Percent To 43 Percent Among Registered Voters Nationwide Following V.P. Debate
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Obama, McCain On The Attack
With only a month to Election Day, both presidential campaigns are accusing the other of ties to questionable characters, reports Chip Reid. Harry Smith talks to advisers from both campaigns.
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Listen to CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic dissect the data to see what's driving public opinion.
The Obama-Biden ticket led by a wider margin, nine percentage points, in a CBS News poll released last Wednesday, before Joe Biden and Sarah Palin faced off in the vice presidential debate. Obama-Biden led by five percentage points on Sept. 25.
In the new poll, the Democratic ticket leads by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.
Barack Obama holds a 20 point lead in terms of enthusiasm. Fifty-eight percent of Obama voters say they are very enthusiastic about their candidate, while only 38 percent of John McCain voters say the same about the Arizona senator.
Roughly one in five registered voters have yet to commit to a candidate, though they may lean towards one or the other.
Interest in tomorrow's presidential debate is high. Roughly two in three registered voters say they are "very likely" to watch the debate, about the same percentage who said they were very likely to watch the first presidential debate and the vice presidential debate.Read The Complete CBS News Poll On The Presidential Race And The Debates
A CBS News poll conducted last week showed that more uncommitted voters thought Obama won the first debate, and nearly half of all voters expect he will win this debate too. Just one in four expect McCain to win.
The Vice Presidential Debate:
Both Biden and Palin appear to have benefited from their performance in the vice presidential debate. Both now have 40 percent approval ratings - an increase of six points for Biden and eight points for Palin from their pre-debate approval ratings.
Palin's unfavorable rating of 32 percent is significantly higher, however, than Biden's 19 percent unfavorable rating. And on the key questions of whether each candidate is ready to be vice president, or, if necessary, president, majorities see only Biden as passing the test.
Seventy-five percent of registered voters say Biden is prepared to be vice president, and 65 percent say he could be an effective president; just 42 percent say Palin is prepared to be vice president and only 37 percent say she could be an effective president. Even Republicans are more likely than not to concede Biden could be an effective president.
As uncommitted voters did in a CBS News/Knowledge Networks poll conducted immediately after the debate, registered voters who watched the debate give the “win” to Biden, 50 percent to 31 percent.
Both Biden and Palin improved their overall images somewhat in the debate, and both are seen by about six in ten voters as sharing their values. About one in three registered voters say the vice presidential candidates will have a lot of influence on their vote in November, the same percentage that said as much before the debate.
The Top Of The Ticket:
Obama continues to lead McCain when it comes to his overall favorable/unfavorable rating: The Democratic nominee has a favorable rating of 46 percent and an unfavorable rating of 34 percent. Registered voters are more closely split on McCain, who holds a favorable rating of 40 percent and an unfavorable rating of 38 percent.
Sixty-two percent of registered voters see both Obama and McCain as having the ability to be an effective president.
McCain has distanced himself somewhat from President George W. Bush, who currently has among the lowest approval ratings of any modern president. In this poll, 38 percent say that if elected president McCain would generally continue Mr. Bush’s policies, down from 46 percent last month. This is the lowest percentage to link McCain to the president’s policies since last April.
Obama has lost some ground when it comes to perceptions of how he would handle the economy, though he still leads McCain when it comes to the issue.
Twenty-four percent of registered voters are "very confident" that the Democratic nominee would make the right decisions on the economy, down five points from before the presidential debate. Forty-one percent are not confident, up from 34 percent.
Fifteen percent are "very confident" in McCain when it comes to the economy, meanwhile, and 44 percent are not confident.
The race continues to be close among independents. In this poll McCain has a small edge, 44 percent to 39 percent, among the group. At the end of last week it was Obama with a small lead. Independents have swung back and forth between the two candidates for the last few weeks.
Obama is leading among Democrats, liberals, moderates and voters who supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries. He has not improved his support among former Clinton voters in recent weeks, and presently has the support of roughly two in three.
McCain is leading among Republicans, Independents and conservatives. He is also leading among whites, including both white Catholics and white evangelicals, as well as whites making less than $50,000 a year who do not have a college degree.
The Bailout Plan, Congress And The President:
Last week Congress enacted a financial rescue plan on its second try - and while Americans are more negative than ever about the state of the economy, a majority (51 percent) disapprove of the bailout package. Just 31 percent say they approve.
Americans continue to think Wall Street is more likely to benefit from the government’s economic bailout than the rest of the country. Sixty-percent say the plan will just benefit Wall Street, while 30 percent say it will help everyone.
A majority of Americans now disapprove of the government providing money to financial institutions. A week ago Americans were evenly split on the question; now just 36 percent approve while 52 percent disapprove.
And even though a majority remains much more accepting of the idea of helping homeowners, even that number is down from last week, with 54 percent now approving and 37 percent disapproving.
Few Americans approve of how either the president or Congress is handling the financial crisis. Both receive identical 21 percent approval ratings on the measure.
Fifty-five percent now say the economy is in very bad shape - the highest number ever recorded in a CBS News Poll. Only 11 percent think the condition of the economy is even somewhat good.
Moreover, Americans remain pessimistic about the economy’s future: three in four think the economy is getting worse. Only 3 percent think the economy is getting better, while one in five thinks it is staying the same.
President Bush’s overall job approval rating is 22 percent - the same as it was last week and the lowest of his presidency. Congress also receives dismal overall ratings from the public. Only 15 percent of Americans approve of the way Congress is handling its job, the same as last week. Seventy-two percent now disapprove of Congress’ job, including a majority of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 957 adults nationwide, including 875 registered voters, interviewed by telephone October 3-5, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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See all 1181 CommentsI got an idea, let''s vote for 4 more years of the McSame. Let''s put more lipstick on the Government of Pigs. Let''s give more tax money to big business.
That would seal the deal.
Don''''''''t read anything into this headline. The 4 major daily tracking polls as of this morning have a composite of Obama ahead 50.5%-42.1%. McCain and Palin''''''''s lies, slander and frustration will have an effect, but it may not be the effect they
I agree. You are more actuate -
Posted by zoe20006
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I love this ;ast week when the CBS polls showed Obama widening his lead and the major polls were showing him maintaining you were all singing the victory song. Now that the CBS poll shows the race tightning it is meaningless.
We''ll see next monday I got a feeling now that the people are being shown wo they can trust and who they can''t this will go back to a one or two point race. This will happen by the 13th mark the date down.
McSame to have Paleone reveal Obama from Pluto...
that swiftboated john kerry. i now understand his pitch for his energy plan. mucho dinero from the government to make him richer and richer. would not surprise me to learn that geo. bush is already on his staff . t. boone, rest assured that i will be against anything and everything you say or do , right or wrong, good or bad. up urs a mile
Posted by BajaJohn1
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And what does it say for the 47% that are supporting a marxist, socialist, radical. I got a feeling the minority is the one''s that will save this country from going down a path that will take years to get out of.
If all the socialist countries are so great and America is so bad why do those socialist countries like Poland have lotteries for people to win work visa''s to the US. And the US is one of top countries for imigrants coming in. There is a reason fro that.
that swiftboated john kerry. i now understand his pitch for his energy plan. mucho dinero from the government to make him richer and richer. would not surprise me to learn that geo. bush is already on his staff . t. boone, rest assured that i will be against anything and everything you say or do , right or wrong, good or bad. up urs a mile
Posted by ll2owt
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Well then you will be against everything that will make us energy indipendant. Because it is his plan barack has decided to adopt, since he couldn''t come up with a plan of his own.
At the same time, Obama is gaining in state polls all over the country conducted by many different firms. The trend, for the moment, looks very clear.
Sure, this new CBS poll COULD prove to be on the right track, but with every other poll moving in the other direction, you''ve got to figure, right now, that this one is an outlier... which can easily happen in any fairly small random sample. A headline declaring the race "tightening" is simply misleading when the poll averages are consistently widening.
Posted by BajaJohn1
why
CNN Poll of Polls also shows Obama up by eight.
Gallup also shows Obama up by eight.
NBC/WSJ poll: Obama increases national lead
Marketing majors posing as journalists are as bad as MBAs screeching for bailouts.
good or bad, right or wrong. he will always be a POS and nothing more..
Posted by Mccain08NC at 07:12 PM
He changes his user id.
So did Obama hang out with Bill Ayers the unrepentent terrorist or not? Did he jump start his political career at a party at Ayers house? It''''s a documented fact, so don''''t lie liberal, admit that your messiah is not the Annointed One you are waiting on
Posted by StopSocialis at 07:11 PM : Oct 06, 2008
What they won''t tell you is that after a thorough and exhaustive investigation the very story they cite as raising questions definitely concluded that Obama and Ayers "do not appear to have been close." This finding mirrors the findings of a number of other independent investigations, which found that the relationship alleged is "tenuous," "absurd," and lacking "evidence."
Notwithstanding the facts, we fully expect an increasingly frustrated and desperate McCain campaign to continue to lie in attacking Senator Obama.
Follow this link http://www.time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/10/obama_camp_challenging_mccain.html
Posted by StormeyTexan
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Why don''t you explain the truth to us and why your at it explain a single policy Obama wants to impliment will do anything to help this situation we are in.
Every economic expert has said raising taxes while in a recesion can and will make it worse if not drive us into an out right depresion. So tell me what he is proposing that will help any of this. I know he is promising to buy your vote with the tax the rich and give it to the poor plan but what will it do to help this economic situation.
Posted by misha128
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No I have been Mccain08nc for about two months now.
Posted by misha128 at 07:13 PM : Oct 06, 2008
McCain and Palin didn''''t debate, but Biden sure topped her in lies about 10 or 12!
20 is greater than 10 or 12 and the magnitude definitely favored Gov Palin on most, if not all of the lies.
Posted by GetRealTex at 07:16 PM
Follow this link http://www.time-blog.com/real_clear_poli
tics/2008/10/obama_camp_challenging_mcca
in.html
Posted by mairin27
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So becasue he didn''t sit on a bench making out with guy, he just sat on a board gave speeches and start his political career at a party at the mans house we should oh well he makes good decisions.
Posted by StopSocialis
I''m surprised you have switched.
Posted by Mccain08NC at 07:12 PM
He changes his user id.
Posted by misha128 at 07:16 PM
No I have been Mccain08nc for about two months now.
Posted by Mccain08NC at 07:18 PM
Read again -- a prediction of when you will.
Posted by cause_v
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I see you have already spent the 1000.00 Obama has promised if you vote for him. Just remember you sold your country out for a whoping $1000.00. which unless he gets the republicans to agree to steal from the oil companies you won''t get.
The facts don''''t lie. No matter how much you twist and lie to defend your Messiah Obama.
We will fight you socialists here in America, tooth and nail, got it?
We''''re not going to let you turn our country into a communist state just yet! You can COUNT ON IT
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Posted by StopSocialis at 07:20 PM : Oct 06, 2008
Hey you asked to refute what you posted. I sent you a link which lists several media outlets, CNN, MSNBC, Time mag, Washington Post, etcl that have all come to the same conclusion. When faced with overwhelming evidence to the contrary to keep making the claim just makes you look bad or worse....
Posted by StormeyTexan
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Please tell us one lie that has been said about Obama in reference to Ayers or Rev Wright. I understand left wing radicals have a hard time seeing left wing radicals but tell me one Lie that has been said.
The final, certified, results of Election 2004 show that President George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while Senator John Kerry earned 48.3%. Those figures are very close to the final Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll. We projected the President would win 50.2% to 48.5%.
So the polling results actually were very close to the actual outcome in 2004.
Posted by mairin27
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Do any of those sources say Obama did not sit on a board with ayers or hr did not kick off his political career at ayers house. That is why people are saying he was friendly with terorrist.
We all know he through him under the bus when he started running for president so of course he''s not pal around with him now.
Likely voters
George W. Bush 49%
John Kerry 47%
Kerry was ahead among registered voters by 2 points, while Bush was ahead among likely voters by 2 points.
The final election result? Bush won the popular vote over Kerry by about 2.5 percentage points, almost exactly what our likely voter estimate predicted.
....
Posted by StopSocialis at 07:28 PM
How was Bush doing compared with McCain today -- markedly better. It still looks bad for McCain and his Chicken Little panic act.
Posted by mr22582 at 07:32 PM
Why do McCain supporters believe the above trash?
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