McCain-Palin Can Still Catch Up

Weekly Standard: McCain Camp Still Has Time To Close The Gap, But They Must Attack - Ideology & Character Are Legit Issues

(Weekly Standard)  This column was written by William Kristol.

The odds are against John McCain and Sarah Palin winning this election. It's not easy to make up a 6-point deficit in the last four weeks. But it can be done.
Look at history. The Gore-Lieberman ticket gained about 6 points in the final two weeks of the 2000 campaign. Ford-Dole came back more than 20 points in less than two months in the fall of 1976. Both tickets were from the party holding the White House, and both were running against inexperienced, and arguably risky, opponents.

What's more, this year's race has already--twice--moved by more than 6 points over a span of only a few weeks. The race went from McCain up 2 (these are the Real Clear Politics averages) on September 14 to Obama plus 6 on October 2, less than three weeks later. In the four weeks before that, the race had moved from Obama plus 5 on August 12 to McCain plus 2 on September 12.

So while there's reason for McCain-Palin supporters to worry, there's no reason to despair.

Despair is what the Obama campaign is hoping and working for. If a campaign can convince supporters of the other candidate that the race is effectively over, the enthusiasm and volunteer efforts drop off--as does, ultimately, their turnout on Election Day. Just as important, undecided and loosely affiliated voters become persuaded there's no real contest and lose any incentive to look closely at the candidates. This explains the efforts of the Obama campaign--aided by a colluding media--to sell the notion that the race is over, that McCain supporters should give up, and undecided voters should tune out.

That's why the events at the end of last week were so important.
On Thursday night, Sarah Palin more than held her own in the vice-presidential debate against Joe Biden. She may well have stopped the McCain campaign's slide and, with her assaults on Obama's tax-and-spend liberalism and his willingness to lose in Iraq, set up McCain for a strong performance in Tuesday night's debate.

On Friday, enough House Republicans came around to pass the $700 billion financial bailout. It's no magic bullet, either in terms of the economy or the McCain campaign. But it gives both a chance.

McCain's decline in the second half of September is easily explained. A huge financial crisis coming to a head less than two months before Election Day is going to hurt the candidate of the incumbent party. The situation was made worse by the perception that not only was a Republican administration presiding over a financial meltdown, but congressmen from the same party were obstructing efforts to deal with it.

McCain's decision to come back to Washington to try to work out a deal was therefore sensible. While the Bush administration and the congressional Republicans were squabbling and Rome burned, McCain had no chance. Now there is a deal, and the political bleeding may have been staunched. McCain can go on the offensive for the final weeks.

But what kind of offensive?

The positive component is pretty straightforward: McCain and Palin are common sense conservatives and proven reformers. The record of reform can be emphasized and contrasted with Obama's and Biden's record of conventional, go-along, get-along liberalism. And implicitly: If McCain and Palin are reformers and outsiders, it's not Bush's third term. More important is the negative message. The McCain campaign has to convince 51 percent of the voters they can't trust Barack Obama to be our next president. This has an ideological component and a character component.

Character is a legitimate issue. Obama hasn't shown much in the way of leadership or political courage, and he's consorted with dubious figures. It's fair to ask whether Barack Obama is personally trustworthy enough to be president, and the McCain campaign shouldn't be intimidated from going there.

But one shouldn't underestimate the ideological issue, and the potency of the fact that Obama and Biden are orthodox liberals. They're for raising taxes, federally funding abortions, naming activist judges, and losing wars. The American people may think--they do think--the country's on the wrong track, that the Bush administration has made too many mistakes and that the Republican party's no great shakes. But they haven't suddenly become liberals. And they probably aren't crazy about the prospect of a liberal administration governing unchecked, hand in hand with a liberal Congress. During the next four weeks, the McCain-Palin campaign should make this risky prospect vivid.

[noloyalisti]

Maybe McSame and Quaylin can start a new party, the new American fascist Christian party. Then they could win in the Midwest and South.

[eggy1620]

Posted by proisrael at 09:59 AM : Oct 08, 2008

Yeah, it is much safer to walk the streets of the West Bank, huh?

The only way McCain "catches up," is to slip behind the stick of another doomed plane and fire an air to air missile up the pipe. As for Sarah, the only thing she''ll ever "catch up" is that stuff that she spreads on her grilled moose meat.

[markinga7]

What self respecting journalist would encourage candidates to sling mud? He shows how low many (but not all) Republicans have fallen.

[simplemind2]

For that to happen, Ms. Governor Palin has to do a real "SPREAD" - instead of just "WINKs".
A lot of strong "Family Valued" die-hard Republicans would really love to see that.
Some of them holding the sign which says "Marry me" during her pep rally.
Just imaging what will happen - when indeed she made a "SPREAD" - the crowd - i.e. the above die-hard Republicans - would really really go "WILD".
Bigger her "GAP" - closer the crowd''s "GAP" - WINK, WINK!

[aakalan]

Oh, Kristol, you are such a jerk. Always have been. As well as almost always wrong. Why does anyone let you write for them?

Obama killed McCain in the debate tonight by big numbers according to all the pundits and the polls. Your insanity will not survive November 4.

Thank God.

[sloganvz]

Alohaone1 Posted:

"his Kool-Aid drinking supporters , "

You have got to be joking!?!? You are a racist piece of garbage you know that. I''m a republican and its people like you that give the GOP a bad name!!!!

[sloganvz]

Alohaone1 Posted:

"his Kool-Aid drinking supporters , "

You have got to be joking!?!? You are a racist piece of garbage you know that. I''m a republican and its people like you that give the GOP a bad name!!!!

[tonyd_31]

McCain/Palin is the only true choice for America at this point in time.

Posted by mycommentspg

I guess this guy is from the 12% of us who thinks the country is on the right track. Newsflash: A 12% does not speak for the majority of American.

[tonyd_31]

John McSame and Sarah Palin can win if somehow he finds the fountain of youth in the next week or two and she suddenly wakes up one day and find herself with a brain. Short of these two things happening, they are toast (and rightfully so).

[joker1944-2009]

McCain/Palin is the only true choice for America at this point in time.

Posted by mycommentspg at 02:21 PM : Oct 07, 2008

I''m sure our enemies would a agree with you. What better way to stick a dagger in the heart of America then an administration that would carry on the failed policies of the Bush administration?

Vote McCain/Palin - if you''re curious how far America can fall.

[chalres-2009]

You have got to be kinding me. This lying bunch of terroist can not possible have a chance. Not Palin the terroist, if you don''t believe, check it out
http://soonerthought.blogspot.com/2008/09/palin-supporter-of-alaskan-separatist.html
Two Can Play That Game.

[noloyalisti]

You have top be a real moron to be spitting out right wing propaganda about Obama, 99% of which is made up by simple minded righties.

Anyone who wants more of the Grampy McSame is a freakin idiot, let''s face it. What good has McBush ever done for the working people?

[stopkidding]

We have our instructions. Quickly stop talking about the economic crises brought on by the failures of the Republican party (not to mention drowning an American city, losing two wars, and destroying the Constitution)and start telling lies about the Dems. It''s so crazy it must might work!

[alohaone1]

I am not so worry about Palin becoming President as Obama becoming President and appointing friends like Louis Farrakhan , Rev. Wright , Bill Ayers , Tony Retzko ....to the cabinet . Then we are really doomed . AS for Palin , she will be just fine , she has shown times and again that she is intelligent and perform well under pressure .And as much as the Libs want Mc cain DEAD right after election day , I bet anyone that MC CAin will be around and healthy for the next 10 years , so Palin will be just a help with Energy matters which she knows very well and which America needs most right now. And again , Why is it okay for Obama supporters to wish Mc Cain death , yet , it is NOT okay for Hillary to compare Obama to RFK ??? Everyone knows that there are at least 100,000 White supremacists out there who do not want a Black to become president ? this is just as factual as Mc Cain health condition yet , no one seem dare talk about ???? If you do not want to talk about this , please , do not wish John Mc Cain dead because he will be healthy for a long time !

[alohaone1]

Obama is a fake and will be exposed in due time. Saying he is a Uniter , yet , has no meaningful record of crossing party line during his time in congress and is the 3 most Liberal member of Congress. Obama supporters think that he is the savor , yet , all he ever did in his life was to be a community organizer and during his time in congress , he DID NOT acchieve any legislation that can be called a Landmark or is of any significant .Obama wants to protray himself as moderate , yet , his pastor is a radical who called for God to *** America , his associates are terrorists who once bombed the US and is unrepentant to this day . Obama sells himself as change , yet , connected at the hip to the corrupt Chicago political machine , with Tony Retzko as an example . Obama can sell himself as anything to his Kool-Aid drinking supporters , BUT SENSIBLE Americans will take a look at the FACTS and HIS RECORDS ( which is minimal at best) and ask WHO IS BARRACK HUSSEIN OBAMA ????REALLY ?!

[mycommentspg]

McCain/Palin is the only true choice for America at this point in time.

[nellybelly52]

MSM is now slanting just enough towards some "good points" McCain has made and acknowledging statements as being true...

[noloyalisti]

If McPalin becomes pResident, we are soooo in trouble. Palin is an end times religious wacko and Grampy McSame is a corporate fascist. OH MY GOD save America from another nightmare.

[wakeup60]

Obama/Biden...Go, Go, Go!!! What is the Right up to with all of this "SLIM-BALL-MUD"-The only thing it is doing,as everyone(just about)in this commentary has stated AND very well-I might add/all this MUD SLINGING is backfiring for McBush and The Annoying voice of The Tundra Tsetse Fly...Pal-out...not Palin. They need to quit their smear tactics/which are old and worn out trick statements or blatant lies-try something that may just work for ya...something the people actually want to hear/truths of how they would take care of this country and how they would try and FIX what DUBYA HAS TOTALLY DESTROYED IN 8 YEARS INCLUDING THE LIVES AND FAMILIES OF OVER 4,400 OF OUR TROOPS AND THE COUNTLESS MAIMED AND PRICELESS, PRECIOUS BRAINDEAD SOLDIERS THAT HAVE BEEN SENT HOME TO "NO" BENEFITS OR HELP-FOR THEIR FAMILIES-TRY STARTING WITH THAT-"BARACK OBAMA" AND "JOE BIDEN" ARE ATTUNED TO THE NEEDS OF OUR COUNTRY AND THAT IS WHY THEY ARE PULLING AHEAD-IT''S THAT SIMPLE!