Expert Says Iran 2 To 5 Years From Nuke

But David Kay, Former U.S. Weapon Hunter In Iraq, Advises Against Bombing

(AP)  Iran is two years to five years away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon, the former head of the U.S. weapons-hunting team in Iraq said Wednesday. But David Kay said the U.S. should not consider bombing Iranian nuclear facilities unless the weapon was about to be transferred to a terrorist group.

Kay, who led the Iraq Survey Group from 2003 until early 2004, said the U.S. should line up international support to pressure Iran to give up on a nuclear weapon, while also preparing for the strong possibility that effort will fail. Preparations could include offering security guarantees to Iran's neighbors and shoring up Middle East stability and economic growth.

Iran is 80 percent of the way to a nuclear weapon, Kay estimates, but the last 20 percent of development is the most difficult. He noted that Iran has worked on the program for 20 years without successfully producing a weapon.

"You've got a clear record of country that is damned determined at some point to develop nuclear weapons," Kay said in a talk at the Nixon Center. "The real question to ask is, `What are the political strategies we can follow now that can lessen the impact?"' of a nuclear Iran.

Iran denies it is seeking a weapon or hiding a bomb program behind its known drive to perfect nuclear technology that could be used to produce electricity. Estimates of Iran's progress vary. Western intelligence agencies generally agree that if Iran chose to, it could field a nuclear device within a few years. Iran has accelerated its uranium enrichment program this year.

Kay said there is "virtually no possibility" Iran will give up its uranium enrichment program, which can be used to fuel civilian reactors for domestic energy use as well as make fissile material for warheads.

He dismissed the notion that a U.S. or Israeli military strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure would be effective or useful. He said it would only delay the development of a weapon by one to two years at the most, and would unite Iran's people more firmly behind its leaders.

Kay would only advocate a military attack "if I found the Iranians had transferred a nuclear weapon to a third party, a terrorist organization or another state," or if it used a nuclear weapon in an attack.

The value of diplomatic outreach to Iran has been an issue in the current presidential campaign.

Democrat Barack Obama favors direct diplomacy. He says he would meet Iran's leaders without precondition but after the proper groundwork is laid. Obama also says he would intensify diplomatic pressure on Tehran before Israel feels the need to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities.

Republican John McCain favors tougher penalties and opposes direct high-level talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. McCain's vice presidential nominee, Sarah Palin, recently said in a CBS television interview that the U.S. should not "second guess" Israel's "security efforts" against Iran.

[iphyt4u]

Of course the experts say that. That''s how America gets out it''s financial binds. When the economy is bad, we go to war. If there''s no money in war, why have one.

[drew1503]

So we are supposed to take the word of a guy who said Iraq had WMD''s over EVERY US Intelligence agency as well as International ones.
This guy is a joke just like the rest of them Obama and McCain are the same on 95% of the issues, when are you people going to wake up and realize it is a false paradigm.
Cheney wanting to paint our boats to look like Iranian and fire on them to start war.
www.liveleak.com/view?i=cd5_1217705567
Operation Northwoods, the US wanted to do false flag terror attacks to start a war with Cuba:
http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=92662
USS Liberty
http://www.infowars.com/articles/world/liberty_why_did_israel_attack_uss_liberty.htm
http://www.nsa.gov/public/publi00003.cfm
Business Plot %u2013 Bush grandfather part of coup to overthrow the US Government
http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_plot
Bush grandfather helped Bankroll Nazi Party
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/sep/25/usa.secondworldwar

You trust these guys you are a conspiracy theorist.

[navyretired2]

"Oh well, that is a product of GW bullyisam.

Posted by zokin at 12:21 AM : Oct 02, 2008"

They''ve been working on it for 20 years...I wish I''d known that far ahead that Bush was going to be President like they did.

O.o

[worksafeaz]

I don''t think the US should deny Iran nuclear weapons. We should show them great friendship and give some of ours at abosolutely no cost. DROPPED FROM 40,000 FT OVER TEHRAN!!! Take all you want, we will make more!

[easeup-2009]

Posted by jaydee102 at 11:08 AM : Oct 02, 2008

Oh my....it''s almost as if you''ve never even HEARD of Iran before today. You have ABSOLUTELY no idea what you''re talking about yet, you childishly deride people like your some sort of "expert." Unbelievable.

First of all NO ONE, not Europe, not China, not even the Russians want Iran to possess nuclear weapons. The UN offered Iran a deal in which Russia would supply them with highly controlled enriched uranium and the refused....why you ask? Maybe because their president has hosted symposiums discussing the Holocaust being a myth, or maybe he has publicly proclaimed that Israel should be "wiped off the face of the Earth."

Here''s a suggestion--why not have a CLUE before you get on here calling people names.

Here''s a GREAT start--google Hezbollah or Iran state sponsored terrorism.

Sheesh!

[inventagod2]

This guy said Iraq had WMDs, then later flip-flopped...

ZERO credibility, here...

[stevex47]

Is this the same guy who said Iraq had nukes too?

[sk_w]

I wonder if this''expert'' also believed that Iraq had WMD

[consciousnes]

What kind of an expert if he can''t nail it down to within a 3 year time period?
Expert, expert, expert. Who said HE was an expert? He couldn''t even find any weapons of mass distruction in Iraq.

[infe5]

"It''''s beyond me why Iran would want a bunch off nukes pointed at them. If they acquire one everyone that has nukes will put them in their sites." - Jamster31

It is a huge leveraging tool. Just look at North Korea. North Korea probably had no plans to use a bomb for defense/offense; but they knew Western powers would fall all over themselves to offer incentives to dismantle their nuke program. It worked too. Now, whenever North Korea needs cash, they can simply claim that they are under some made up threat, put their program back online, and wait for incentive programs to disable it again.

Iran is different in that they may actually use a nuke (or sell it to someone who would) in addition to playing the disarm-for-cash game.

[jamster31]

It''s beyond me why Iran would want a bunch off nukes pointed at them. If they acquire one everyone that has nukes will put them in their sites.

[gwinginit]

Experts? Does that mean Government Experts? That means to me that either they already have it or they are a world away. Sure hope it is a world away, maybe if we start now we can get the Legislative and Executive Branches to do something before it is to late and we all go up in a mushroom cloud.

[xmanborg]

Iran stretches the truth and the lie as far as it will go. Iran tries to keep everybody guessing and confused and off guard and distracted from what Iran is doing in reality.

Yes they are buiding a nuclear weapon and everybody knows it. Thats why they are building a missile delivery system also.

Who ever is Elected President, McCain or Obama , will have to deal with Iran with a nuclear weapon in 2 to 5 years.

[xmanborg]

Iran stretches the truth and the lie as far as it will go. Iran tries to keep every guessing and confused and off guard and distracted from what Iran is doing in reality.

Yes they are buiding a nuclear weapon and everybody knows it. Thats why they are building a missile delivery system also.

Who ever is Elected President, McCain or Obama , will have to deal with Iran with a nuclear weapon in 2 to 5 years.

[checkthepast]

jaydee102

For extra credit move to Iran, the country you are so proud of and leave the US to those that are proud to be here.

[jamster31]

One thing i noticed on these posts whether Liberal or Conservative everyone agrees Iran is building a bomb, so everyone agrees Iran is lying.

[ctjccjc]

Israel could really use a MAD partner to help keep them in check, but i wouldn''t worry to much bout Iran, after all they can''t even refine there own gas.

[ctjccjc]

Israel could really use a MAD partner to help keep them in check, but i wouldn''t worry to much bout Iran, after all they can''t even refine there own gas.

[jamesetling4]

Iran will never be able to threaten anybody with a nuclear weapon, because Israel will neutralize Iran long before they get a chance. Israel can use cruise missles to deliver the really big ones [10 megatons or bigger] to set a lovely example for how they don''t react well to being threatened.

[andrew_693]

why not bomb their facilities now with tomahawk cruise missiles or provide those to israel.