What Do Polls Mean Come Election Day?

CBS News/YouGov Electoral College Model Shows How States Affect Vote Outcome

(CBS)  National polls, including CBS News Polls, can measure the preference of voters nationwide. But the winner in a presidential election is decided by electoral votes accumulated state-by-state. CBS News has partnered with YouGov/Polimetrix to model how shifts in the national horserace numbers would most likely affect the overall electoral vote outcome.

Guided by the results of two previous CBS News/New York Times national polls, YouGov/Polimetrix then modeled 50 state electorates for CBS News, incorporating information from 26,300 online interviews with registered voters.

A CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted September 21-24, showed the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden with a 47 percent to 42 percent lead over Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin.

YouGov/Polimetrix applied the 5-point lead to their 50-state national results weighted to each state’s relative vote size, demographics, and matched to the CBS News/New York Times Poll in national party identification and ideology.


The 5-Point Lead Scenario

This technique makes it possible to estimate the probability that each candidate would carry any given state - as of now - in a national race. Under the 5-point scenario, the most likely outcome would give Obama 313 electoral votes. There would be almost zero chance of a McCain Electoral College victory if Obama led him by 5 points on Election Day.

Under this scenario, Obama’s winning coalition would come from wins in battleground states like Nevada, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire and Michigan. In this model, he would also carry Indiana. Other battleground states like Ohio would become more competitive for Obama, but most probably would remain in the Republican column. So would Florida.

Obama would hold all the states that voted for Al Gore in 2000 and add five new ones: New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, Missouri and Indiana.

Since battleground states might also shift, there are also ranges of possible outcomes. With small shifts in the battleground states, Obama’s Electoral College count with a 5-point national lead could range from 313 to 355 electoral votes.

Most likely scenario with a 5-point Obama lead:



The Three-Point Lead Scenario

The state-by-state outcome also shifts with changes in the national margin. At the moment, Obama leads in all national polls. With an Obama lead of only three percentage points nationally, the most likely outcome produced by our model is Obama winning with 302 electoral votes. But he could win as many as 330 or as few as 290.

Since many states are likely to have relatively lopsided outcomes, relatively few states change with changing margins of victory. The most likely scenario for a 3-point Obama victory changes the electoral vote allocation in our model only in Indiana, which would revert back to its more usual Republican status. That would give Obama 302 electoral votes.

Most likely scenario with a 3-point Obama lead:



The 1-Point Lead Scenario

The most likely outcome with the 1-point Obama lead model is 284 electoral votes. But here the range includes a loss (with only 267 electoral votes), or a victory with 304 electoral votes. A close national race - a 1-point Obama win - would also most likely turn Virginia and Nevada back to red, giving Obama 284 electoral votes.

Most likely scenario with a 1-point Obama lead:



What Does It Mean For The Candidates?

As CBS News senior political correspondent Jeff Greenfield reports, if you figure Obama has a 5 point national lead (and as of Oct. 1 poll, it’s 9 percentage points) and apply that on a state-by-state basis, you find that Obama holds all of the states John Kerry won in 2004, plus Virginia, Iowa, Missouri, and three states from the interior West where Republicans usually run strong. That way to win includes Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, a shift that gives Obama 302 electoral votes - 32 more than the magic 270 number. Design your own "Ways to Win" on an interactive map right here.

As Jeff Greenfield noted on the CBS Evening News, there are recent state polls that offer a similar picture.

"Looking at recent state polls, it’s not good news for McCain. Obama is statistically tied, or even ahead, in North Carolina, Florida (which decided the 2000 race) and Ohio (decisive in 2004)," Greenfield said.

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How The CBS News/YouGov Model Works: The national horserace percentage is not distributed evenly across all states. States differ in size (how much they contribute to a candidate’s national vote total) registration, turnout, demographics and partisanship and, of course, candidate preference.

To model these state-level differences, we incorporated 51 additional sets of interviews with voters conducted by YouGov/Polimetrix, matched to voter registration lists, partisan and demographic profiles in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, and which were then adjusted to reflect the latest national CBS News/New York Times poll horserace estimate. Using all these data, each state was assigned a probability of going to either Obama or McCain.

The electoral tallies and maps are a model of the Electoral College’s most likely outcome if a candidate were to win the national popular vote by 5 percent, 3 percent, or 1 percentage point. Because some states shape up as closer contests than others, a shift in national vote choice will mean a change in the likely winner in the close states more readily than in less competitive states.

YouGov/Polimetrix selected respondents for this modeling from its online panel of 1.1 million Americans. They were matched to a sample of registered voters from each state to ensure representativeness.

As the campaign goes on, the underlying pattern of results could change state by state. CBS News will again look at the state by state implications of the national polling numbers at later points in the campaign.

[barrylies]

Nothing.

[dagubment]

Polls are useless come election day. What people say for a poll and do on election day will differ greatly this election. "closet voters", etc....

[dagubment]

Again, polls are useless fantasy.

[angelaswafford]

GObama, Go! We need some intelligence in the White House.

[portlandpdx]

These are media driven. Media has been driving this election. It''s all smoke up in the air but once the smoke clears McCain will be walking thru that smoke. Obama will be playing as a backup with Barba Streisand. Someone tell Obama to take up a new career.

[PKMasta2]

I wish it would sink in...the polls are fine, but defining Red/Blue states a month from the election is harmful. It''s bad enough to live on in the western time zones and have to listen to who has "won" the east coast...several hours before our polls close. But to see something that mimic real facts or results is not doing any good to help the effort to re-enfranchise voters.

[demwatcher]

If you read the article, it is a CBS POLL. i.e. Another Liberal slanting, biased opinion piece. Nothing more.

[sean7phil]

Thanks for telling me that its all over.

I am so glad CBS is always there to tell me what is best for me and what is going to happen.

[aceshigh333-2009]

Ya know... I have been running around the interweb tonight. I''''ve been reading stories about the election. I''''ve been reading about the candidates. Etc. etc.
I''''ve come to the conclusion that McCain truly isn''''t very bright.
He has made NO good decisions in his campaign. He will lose by default. The more stupid guy loses.
sigh... whatever.

Posted by azure11

It''s not over yet. McCain has a military mind, thinking, and battle plan. B.O. has threw everything at McCain/Palin and B.O. is only up 4 pts on a slanted poll. We still have a month.

[barbaralexi]

Polls are great! They give us hope, and help us understand where the public is in it''s thinking. Our upcoming election is a dangerous one, do to the fact that an uneducated Hocky Mom could rise to within a heart beat from the presidencey. She can''t answer the simplist of questions, and when she trys it''s like listening to a babbling idiot. I''m hopful more today than yesterday because I see McCain falling behind. Good americans are coming to their sences, finally understanding McCain/Palin for what they really represent. Palin should not, can not, be let near our White House! God help us if the numbers change!

[aceshigh333-2009]

God help us if the numbers change!

Posted by BarbaraLexi

I''ll pray for you to handle it when McCain gains on B.O.

[aceshigh333-2009]

Today Hillary was on her 40th Obama-Biden election campaign speech in the past 6-weeks.

Hillary Clinton - - You Go, Girl!!

Hillary Clinton for U.S. Secretary of State!!!

Posted by White-Marsh

Yea right, Hillary doing this so B.O. would pay off her debt.

[jab232]

The polls don''t mean squat. People lie and there are many voters who have nothing but cell phones. Both candidates should just campaign hard and let the people decide.

[thechooch1]

John43218

Franklin Raines has had no actual position with the Obama campaign!

Go to www.snopes.com and see.

How about arguing on the issues instead of false character assassination. Oh, that''s right can''t do that the record is too bad!

[missouriborn]

There is something wrong with this analysis. Only one poll since the middle of July has given Obama any lead in Missouri, and that was only one point. How then does it remain Solid Obama in all scenarios?

Those 11 EVs should be counted for McCain in all of the above, meaning the +1 point lead gives a range of 256-273, and means a win is unlikely.

[dagrandma]

The ultimate poll is the one on November 4. I don''t think the polls being taken now tell us anything. I don''t lie when I take one but a number of people have admitted to me that they do.

CBSCensorU: So nice to see you today spewing the same things you''re always spewing. Shouldn''t you be getting your script ready for today''s broadcast, Rush?

[antoniof123]

Yea right, Hillary doing this so B.O. would pay off her debt.

Posted by aceshigh333 at 01:03 AM : Oct 02, 2008

This is an act of desparation you can''t win on issues so you use or try to use charater assianation.

I really don''t think it will help you in this election and now as the tide is turning you don''t want to lose so you will do what ever you think will help.

Of course it could backfire and be worst for you.

[seriously121]

CBSCensorsU

Are you serious? A Muslim. You guys are trying everything in the book. Bad part is if he was...He''s 50% WHITE!!! Dont worry though...A BLACK MAN WILL BE IN THE WHITE HOUSE COME JANUARY 20, 2009!!! Don''t get it twisted!!!

[sdqueen2000]

I have been a Democrat my whole life. I am a diehard Hillary supporter and after what I witnessed during the Primaries I said to myself there is know way in hell that I would vote for someone who was not elected but selected by the Media and DNC. I know that millions of Hillary supporters will do the same. Our country and freedom will be destroyed by this man.
Please everyone get out there and talk to your friends, neighbors and everyone and help save our great nation.

[gramto8]

I have been a Democrat my whole life. I am a diehard Hillary supporter and after what I witnessed during the Primaries I said to myself there is know way in hell that I would vote for someone who was not elected but selected by the Media and DNC. I know that millions of Hillary supporters will do the same. Our country and freedom will be destroyed by this man.
Please everyone get out there and talk to your friends, neighbors and everyone and help save our great nation.

Posted by sdqueen2000 at 10:20 AM : Oct 02, 2008


If you are such a diehard Hillary supporter, why aren''t you doing as she asked and supporting the Democratic ticket? She stated that to support Obama is to support the things she cares about. That should be enough for any ''diehard'' Hillary supporter.

[minnick8-2009]

A BLACK MAN WILL BE IN THE WHITE HOUSE COME JANUARY 20, 2009!!! Don''''t get it twisted!!!

Posted by Seriously121

Black men and women have been in the White House since it was built. I think they were called servants.

[seriously121]

Well then let me clarify my point Mr. Servant Man!!! Sitting behind the desk in the Oval Office!!! Running the country that obviously you don''t need to be in!!!

Was THAT clear enough

[mytoosense]

Boris picks Natasha for running mate for her skill at shooting Moose and Squirrel.

[observantx]

All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others. - Animal Farm, George Orwell

All voters are equal, but lobbyists are more equal than voters - Incumbent Senate and House members

[walt1944-2009]

Although neither political party places very much faith in poll numbers, the neocon Fascist National Socilaist Nazi Republican National Committee are EXTREMELY concerned that recent polls show Obama with a 5 to 9 point lead which is growing by the hour.

They are so concerned that they have given up on John McBush McCain getting "rough and tough" with Obama and on any vagely sensible babblings by Sarah "Troopergate" Palin. Instead, they have taken it on themselves to give THEIR VERSION of the truth about Obama to the masses without the endorsement of McBush or any Nazi Republican running for public office.

This means that we are now getting DOUBLE the dose of TRUTH ACCORDING TO THE NAZI NEOCONS that we used to before, the thinking being that the more trash is out there, the more us stupid people will believe it.

As Karl Rove and the Great Emperor Bush II has discovered, there are advantages to being DUMB and to keeping the average citizen even DUMBER, which explains why the kids in India and China are SMARTER than we are!

SIG HEIL, I STILL SIGN MY NAME WITH CRAYONS, BUSH!!!
sig heil, WHY CAN''T THEY UNDERSTAND?, McBush!!!
sig heil, I DO A TERRIFIC IMPROV OF TINA FEY!!!, Palin!!!

[homespunlady]

Just an aside I''m trying to figure out.
When the House turned down the Bail out -the next day the Dollar STRENGTHENED (was worth more) and the price of a barrel of oil DROPPED by over $10.

For ME that''s great - but I haven''t been playing the stock casino for a while. Without the bailout my SAVINGS would BUY MORE and the COST of things like gasoline would follow oil and be CHEAPER.

On the other hand with the Senate vote OIL IS UP and the dollar seems to go DOWN - leaving my SAVINGS WORTH LESS and trending to WORTHLESS.

Seems to me the More CONSERVATIVE investors would be BETTER off if that bail out didn''t happen and the PONZI BELIEVERS would only be BUYING TIME and making matters worse if it does.

Of course if you''re REALLY INTO mortgaging our KIDS and GRANDKIDS FUTURE on BETS on a GRAND ROULETTE WHEEL...

[dgshiner]

White America you should be proud to elect your first Afro-American president. Here is a man that has benefit from the rules and regulations that you started when our country was founded. This young man has completed his education, that our country set up, refuted the obstacles that were set before him and is not asking for a handout but a Hand up to vote so that we can change our Country for the better. Don''t let the color of his skin make you frighten, also if you feel you made some mistakes in the past this is an excellent to Correct them with Liberty and Justice for all!

[leighg1]

McCain got his 84 millions from the US Dept. of Treasury. With the economic downturn, Sen. Obama''s camp, relying on donors like you and me, will be hurt. We are in the last days of campaign. This election is not locked in yet. Let''s all give Sen. Obama one last push by donating $5, $10,... $50 whatever you can. We must not let our nation to fall into the disastrous hands of McCain. You can skip a cup of coffee, or a movie. Please help yourself (big!) and your country by helping Sen. Obama to win this race.

http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

[candy-apple]

What Do Polls Mean Come Election Day?


NOT A DA*MN THING!!!

[skyk239]

What Do Polls Mean Come Election Day?


NOT A DA*MN THING!!!

Posted by candy-apple at 01:00 PM : Oct 02, 2008

OH! You''d better bet on that!! I have never, in my 60 years on this planet, seen the average person in this Country THIS mad. They turned a very healthy nation economically, Balanced Budget and Surplus, over to George W. Bush and the Republican Party. THEY are NOT happy with either and they are about to find that out... BIG TIME!!

[skyk239]

Dear dgshiner : You are seriously demented if you believe that garbadge you just wrote. No matter how much school the black man had- he is NOT QUALIFED to lead ANYTING. IF he were WHITE I would say the ame thing.

Posted by john43218 at 12:09 PM : Oct 02, 2008

How so? Where do you people get off saying things like that? This man has been running against the Clintons and NOW the Republican Attack Machine. NOW he''s faced with taking over a nation in Complete Financial Melt Down and YOU can''t figure out he''s qualified? This man has stood there, never wavered and can still inspire the youth of this nation like no one I''ve seen since Kennedy. After all THEY are the ones who must try to salvage the MESS we have left them. Obama IS willing to change course... He IS willing to move away from the Bush Economic Plan. Now ANYONE with a brain should understand that we MUST do that!

[skyk239]

McCain got his 84 millions from the US Dept. of Treasury. With the economic downturn, Sen. Obama''''''''s camp, relying on donors like you and me, will be hurt. We are in the last days of campaign. This election is not locked in yet. Let''''''''s all give Sen. Obama one last push by donating $5, $10,... $50 whatever you can. We must not let our nation to fall into the disastrous hands of McCain. You can skip a cup of coffee, or a movie. Please help yourself (big!) and your country by helping Sen. Obama to win this race.


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Posted by leighg1 at 12:06 PM : Oct 02, 2008


Already beat you to it!! LOL

[skyk239]

Boy, the only thing missing from this piece is that if McCain is up by 20 points, Obama still wins. CBS'''' bias is always obvious.

McCain/Palin ''''08

Posted by wildaces at 12:34 PM : Oct 02, 2008


LOL You''d better find that rock there Sparky!! LOL I don''t know about the people around YOU but here they''d vote for Obama if he were PURPLE!! LOL

[skyk239]

There''''s a sucker born every minute!

Posted by pmsnbc2 at 12:48 PM : Oct 02, 2008

Why is that? HE doesn''t agree with the "Party"??? Not much of a Fascist are you there?? Haven''t you people figured it out yet? EVERYONE else has!!

[praiseallah1]

Obama got AID''s from Larry Sinclair?

I just read that Larry Sinclair who claimes to have had a homosexual affair with Barack Obama been diagnosed with HIV AIDS and believes Obama is infected with the deadly disease and urges him to be diagnosed immediately.

Videos on YouTube such http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUNEip42xsM documents the Press Conference detailing Barack Obamas use of crack cocaine and having homosexual relations with other men while he was the Senator of Illinois.

[phillysage]

John McCain has proved himself even more idiotic than Bush in his pick of Sarah Palin as Vice President and potential President should he become unable to serve for whatever reason. He wanted to flatter women I suppose, but instead he has belittled and insulted them. She is worse than a token appointment--she''s an absolute embarrassment. But worse than his insult to women, is his apparent disregard for the security of our nation should she indeed become President. Let''s send her back to Alaska where she can look at Russia out of her window. The heart of America is finally reviving thank God and seeing the light. Good-bye G.O.P. Happy Days are Here Again!!!! Alleluia

[leighg1]

McCain always reminded people "I was a POW", "I was a POW". That''s all he got for building his political career. I am tired of hearing it all the time. We need a stable and intelligent leader at this critical moment of our country, not just a POW.

[bretster7]

Spin this one Obamabots

http://www.youtube.com/watc
h?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs


That is, if you have the guts and the intellectual honesty to watch the whole thing.

[frosty021]

What is wrong with you,praiseallah1? Are you so unsure of your pick in this election that you can''t stick to the issues, you have to resort to made-up lies? I would not admit that my candidate was so poor that I to resort to those tactics to get them elected. I''m thankful I do not have to do that for my candidate. Obama is what this country needs right now. He is fresh, young and full of orginial ideas. He''s also the most exciting candidate we have had in a long time and I can''t wait to make him our president!

[hawksprings]

"Dewey Defeats Truman"

[newyorker26]

Because of this mess on wall street and it''s huge bail out. McCain has no choice but to raise taxes.I don''t believe in polls i do believe in the american spirit.McMcain/Palin08

[newyorker26]

Because of this Huge bailout mess McCain has no choice but raise taxes after he takes office.The Democrats just giving out handouts have really hurt our economy.I don''t believe in polls But I do believe in the American Spirit

[specialty8]

I might have voted for Obama but there are still to many shady people in his past that he is not telling us about.I do not have to tell who they are,everyone has heard about them.What kind of influence did one of the biggest racist in the country have on him after 25 yrs? You just can''t stand up for the guy one week and then throw him away because it does not look good for the election,Sounds like the Rev. should have picked his freinds better.Come on media we can find out anything about Palin,down to what color her toe nails are,what about Obama and his so called friends,well not anymore,he stays away from them now or until this election is over.

[hjedtyj]

Bush/Cheney called 800 Battalions to harass Remaining House Members to Vote for Bailout Tomorrow!!

Just heard this - hot off the press at 9:30pm, Thursday night!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Will Bush/Cheney start WW III over this? We know they have been itching to start a war to counter/cancel November''s elections so they can stay in power for the past year. Is this it?

The House members whom voted against are those who represent poor and low income areas throughout the country and areas that do not benefit from bailout. They are enough in numbers to make a difference in Monday''s voting. Let''s keep supporting them!!!

Pass this around to others so they know they have and are supported by the public!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mikebr6]

Democrates Guilty of Bad Legislation and Corruption!
Illinois, Chris Dodd, Charlie Rangel, Barney Franks, etc.

The people clearly have indicated their discontent with the %u2018%u2018Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008%u2019%u2019 and I call it %u201CCash for Trash%u201D. You really want me to think you represent the people of your district? It was "Cash for Trash" but now it''s "Cash for Trash & Garbage" Seems the Senate had to have all their "PORK" leaving none for the House!