Obama Opens Up Big Lead In New Poll

Washington Post/ABC News Poll: Economic Fears Give Democrat Clear Nine Point Advantage

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Dan Balz and Jon Cohen.

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Turmoil in the financial industry and growing pessimism about the economy have altered the shape of the presidential race, giving Democratic nominee Barack Obama the first clear lead of the general-election campaign over Republican John McCain, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News national poll.

Just 9 percent of those surveyed rated the economy as good or excellent, the first time that number has been in single digits since the days just before the 1992 election. Just 14 percent said the country is heading in the right direction, equaling the record low on that question in polls dating back to 1973.

More voters trust Obama to deal with the economy, and he currently has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans now face. He also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support. The poll found that, among likely voters, Obama now leads McCain by 52 percent to 43 percent. Two weeks ago, in the days immediately following the Republican National Convention, the race was essentially even, with McCain at 49 percent and Obama at 47 percent.

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.

Last week's near-meltdown in the financial markets and the subsequent debate in Washington over a proposed government bailout of troubled financial institutions have made the economy even more important in the minds of voters. Fully 50 percent called the economy and jobs the single most important issue that will determine their vote, up from 37 percent two weeks ago. In contrast, just 9 percent cited the Iraq war as their most important issue, its lowest of the campaign.

But voters are cool toward the administration's initial efforts to deal with the current crisis. Forty-seven percent said they approve of the steps taken by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to stabilize the financial markets, while 42 percent said they disapprove.

Anxiety about the economic situation is widespread. Just over half of the poll respondents -- 52 percent -- believe the economy has moved into a serious long-term decline. Eight in 10 are concerned about the overall direction of the economy, nearly three-quarters worry about the shocks to the stock market, and six in 10 are apprehensive about their own family finances.

Two weeks ago, McCain held a substantial advantage among white voters, including newfound strength with white women. In the face of bad economic news, the two candidates now run about evenly among white women, and Obama has narrowed the overall gap among white voters to five percentage points.

Much of the movement has come among college-educated whites. Whites without college degrees favor McCain by 17 points, while those with college degrees support Obama by 9 points. No Democrat has carried white, college-educated voters in presidential elections dating back to 1980, but they were a key part of Obama's coalition in the primaries.

The political climate is rapidly changing along with the twists and turns on Wall Street, and it remains unclear whether recent shifts in public opinion will fundamentally alter the highly competitive battle between McCain and Obama. About two in 10 voters are either undecided or remain "movable" and open to veering to another candidate. Nevertheless, the close relationship between voters' focus on the economy and their overall support for the Democratic nominee has boosted Obama.

Among white voters, economic anxiety translates into greater support for Obama. He is favored by 54 percent of whites who said they are concerned about the direction of the economy, but by just 10 percent of those who are less worried.

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The survey also found that the strong initial public reaction to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain's running mate, has cooled somewhat. Overall, her unfavorable rating has gone up by 10 points in the past two weeks, from 28 percent to 38 percent.

She remains broadly popular -- 52 percent of voters view her positively -- but there have been some notable declines. Over the past two weeks, the percentage of independents with favorable views of Palin dropped from 60 percent to 48 percent. Among independent women, the decline was particularly sharp, going from 65 percent to 43 percent. Her favorable rating among whites without college degrees remained largely steady, but among those with college degrees, it dropped nearly 20 percentage points.

The survey also showed some backsliding in enthusiasm among McCain supporters. Overall, most supporters of each presidential candidate said they are enthusiastic about their choice, but 62 percent of Obama supporters said they are "very enthusiastic," compared with 34 percent of McCain's supporters. Coming out of the GOP convention, nearly half of those backing McCain said they did so fervently.

Among Republicans, conservatives and white evangelical Protestants, strong enthusiasm for McCain's candidacy has dropped by double digits.

The survey, conducted Friday through Monday, included telephone interviews with a random national sample of 1,082 adults, including 916 registered voters. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus three percentage points; it is four points for the sample of 780 likely voters.

Overall, Obama and McCain are tied among men in the new poll, while Obama has opened up a sizable lead among women. The candidates divide white voters, 50 percent for McCain to 45 percent for Obama, while Obama has an overwhelming advantage among African Americans, 96 percent to 3 percent.

Independents, key swing voters, now break for Obama, 53 percent to 39 percent, reversing a small lead for McCain after the Republican convention. McCain is the choice of 86 percent of Republicans, while about as many Democrats, 88 percent, back Obama.

In the new poll, voters once again gave Obama higher marks than McCain when it comes to dealing with the economy, 53 percent to 39 percent. Two weeks ago, Obama's edge on the question was a narrow five points, his lowest of the campaign. Among independents, Obama's advantage on the economy -- now 21 points -- is greater than at any point in the campaign.

McCain's advantages on national security issues have also been blunted. Two weeks ago, when those surveyed were asked who they trusted to deal with a major unexpected crisis, McCain led 54 percent to 37 percent. That lead is gone.

Similarly, McCain's once-sizable advantage in dealing with the battle against terrorism has all but disappeared. There were also big shifts toward Obama on handling Iraq and international affairs more broadly.

The first presidential debate, set for Friday evening, is slated to focus on foreign policy and national security, but economic issues seem likely to be included, given the developments on Wall Street. The debate appears poised to draw record levels of attention, as interest in the election has been sky high and continues to grow. Almost all voters are tuned in, and 55 percent are following "very closely," higher than at this time in 2004 and more than double the percentage so engaged in 2000.

A substantial hurdle for Obama is the widespread public skepticism about whether he would make a good commander in chief. On that question, he has made no significant headway in allaying voters' concerns. They remain evenly divided -- 48 percent said he would be effective in that role, 47 percent said he would not. Nearly three-quarters said McCain would manage the military well, and as many said he has the knowledge of world affairs to serve effectively.

Still, the candidates are rated about equally on the question of who is the stronger leader.

In the aftermath of the national conventions and the surprise pick of Palin, McCain had narrowed the gap with Obama on who is more likely to change Washington. In the new survey, Obama has reestablished his credentials on that front. He also now holds a double-digit lead as the more honest and trustworthy candidate, flipping what had been a slight McCain edge two weeks ago.

Obama has also cemented a clear edge among voters prioritizing the economy, a growing group. Among "economy voters," he now leads McCain by nearly 2 to 1. McCain holds advantages among voters prioritizing a range of concerns that rank lower on the issues list, making it harder for him to find ways to drive the agenda of the campaign into favorable territory.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

[dicktracy200]

I am writing this message to inform people of the injustice being perpretrated by Fox News against Barack Obama. For the past two weeks there has been nothing but negative reporting against senator Obama by the Fox News network, which is unfair to listeners and the candidate. This networks seemingly biased opinions are not of interest to us viewers. My concern is that negative reporting like this will influence voters that are undecided of which candidate best express their wishes. I depend on these news stations for fair, accurate and just reporting regardless of the outcome whether it be a debate or any other current event and if that cant be accomplished I feel that it is grounds for that station (Fox News network) to be boycotted until they learn and understand that those types of injustices will not be tolerated. If anyone else can relate to the unfair reporting of Fox News I suggest that you join us in a boycott of this news station. PASS THIS MESSAGE ALONG.

[kansas1946]

No one, including Gov. Sarah Palin, questions that Alaska''s climate is changing more rapidly than any other state''s. But her skepticism about the causes and what needs to be done to address the consequences stands in sharp contrast to the views of her running mate, Sen. John McCain, and place her to the right of the Bush administration and several other Republican governors.

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So what. Sarah probably thinks the earth is 8,000 years old, so I wouldn''t place much faith in her scientific acumen. Beside, anyone who had to go to six colleges to get a degree, probably isn''t the brightest bulb on the tree.

[babooph]

John may be ready to let it go-he does not look good,& 72,in poor health-he may have changed his mind after such a hard campaign.

[olliesmom1]

I almost fainted when I listened to McCain''s comments on lying to the American people! Then I watched to see if his nose had begun to grow. Please, even Carl Rove commented on Fox that McCain''s campaign was dirty, dishonest, and over the top in sleaze. He is just another page from the Bush/Cheney deceit manual and if you vote for him you will find out immediately. If he is so Lily White then why is he hiding his medical records. This is something no other presidental candidate from either party has ever done, knowing that the voters deserve to know if he is fit for the four year term. Also why won''t they let Palin on the campaign trail unorchestrated and without a specific script? Give me a break!

[clovisbuford]

Mr.Mccains service should be respected , but you know this latest move ranks right up tere with the Palin pick and its not driven even by ideology or difference in opinion . Mr Mccain is desperate to change the area of conversation ,leaders on both sides of the congress almost laughed when asked about obama and Mccain driving these talks . As for canceleiing the debates , Bush debated Kerry in the middle of the war , what something comes up the country''s work stops? we have a bit attack in affghanistans and followed by a financial crisis . we say Iam not dealing with this one it will have to wait . political posturing and brought about by these numbers ..

[lovegetpeace]

If any NeoCons now wishes to jump off the Empire State Building in N.Y., please let me know 1st so I can video it and post it on YouTube.com I swear you will be famous.

[tiredofthebs]

Big Surprise (sarcasm). Bigger surprise GOLDEN BOY doesn''t want to postpone the debate. What''s sad is the IL State Senator is actually convincing people that McCain is like Bush. Anyone who followed politics before this overly ambitious City Councilman (Obama) began his campaign realizes nothing is further from the truth. Now America wants to punish McCain when most of the GOP chose Bush over him.

[norcalruss]

Top ten nicknames for GOP (Grumpy Old Party) ticket


10. Bush Light and
Dan-Quayle-in-dress

9. Beauty and
the Beast

8. McBush and
His McMuffin

7. Snow White and
Grumpy

6. Dumbo and
Bimbo

5. Igloo and
7 houses more-or-less

4. B00bs and
Wrinkles

3. Cactus Mac and
The Mayor of Moosville

2. Geritol and
Mooseburger

1. Numb Nuts and
Furburger

[igorpdx]

McCain is a stroke waiting to happen.

Palin is going to be his lady in waiting.

Not this time.

[janefondu]

i c endeavor was not part of our earlier conversation. the 9% poll was biased read through the posts and see how.

[janefondu]

i see achangenow is fabricating a number as is the media to help prop up Obama''s campaign.

[the74blaster]

Regardless, I don''''t have much faith in statistics/polls.

Posted by mcdazz,

I make use of statistics with my job. It does provide a good means of determining if you have true differences with test data. Public opinion polls are another animal.

[achangenow]

It should come as no surprise that Obama is in the lead again. With McCain there''s a 90% chance that the country will be facing more of the same failed policies we''ve had for the last 8 years. Finally, people are seeing through all the distortions the Republicans are trying to feed us. Again, it''s a clear choice as to which candidate has the better ideas to get the country back on track! It''s as simple as that, Jack!

janefondu at 09:46 PM : Sep 24, 2008 wrote:

"I think the debates should start shifting the poll numbers."

I''m inclined to agree with you.

I also think that the current economic situation will also have an effect on voters - one way or the other.

[janefondu]

keep smokin whatever your smokin skyk. thats all I have to say on that.

[the74blaster]

You are very accurate and THAT I believe is the reason for the actions of McCain. He''''s caught with his statement on Monday though... the Foundation of the Economy is Strong. How do you go from THAT to opposing the buy out of AIG, to a Commission to STUDY the situation to things being so bad that the Debate must be called off. That''''s a leap few can or will make I''''m afraid.

Posted by skyk239,

Yeah. To go record and have it blow up in your face like this issue has would make it rather to difficult to debate. Obama will have plenty to work with and the question McCain needs to answer is as follows. I would not want to be in McCains position.

Is it better to just get it over with or take the chance that delaying it will allow things to cool off a bit.

This is a huge gamble by McCain. If the public percieves it as a political move it could backfire and its lights out. The other possibility is he recovers and it stays a close race.

[janefondu]

i agree mcdazz, i''ll wait to see what 11/05/08 brings.

alanrobisch2 at 09:35 PM : Sep 24, 2008 wrote:

"If you look carefully they post the results as being plus or minus 3%"

Actually, it''s 2%:

"the maximum margin of sampling error is 12 percentage points."

Regardless, I don''t have much faith in statistics/polls.

[skyk239]

The poll that suggests a 9 pt advantage to Obama has been proven to be unobjective and biased. When the facts were checked on this poll this is what was found. Blacks were polled in a 3/2 ratio to whites also the geographic area polled is a democratic leaning area. This poll does not show what is going on with the race. The other polls showing 47 to 44 a statistical dead heat is the fact that there is a margin of polling error of +/- 3 points. In effect we are still tied going into October. I think the debates should start shifting the poll numbers.

Posted by janefondu at 09:46 PM : Sep 24, 2008

LOL You don''t need a poll to figure out the kind of trouble McCain is in... you need ONLY to talk to people... Let''s face it the guy is totally LOST on economics and can''t get his story or position straight. NONE of the polls have him leading and I''d guess Obama up 5 to 9 points and that is growing by the minute. This CRISIS has PROVEN to people that the Democrats and Obama are better able to deal with the economy. On that POINT NONE of the Polls differ!

[the74blaster]

Posted by the74blaster at 09:36 PM : Sep 24, 2008
+ report abuse
You may be right but why should a one shot poll be more accurate than an ongoing poll by Gallup. It is as current as yesterday

Posted by alanrobisch2,

Sometimes they will use a rolling average or they do not consider the political make up of the people they question. Gallup is very good source and for the most part it is unbiased.

The interesting point with the ABC poll is the 9 point margin is higher than most. The difference could be that there were more democrats in their sample or ther were more republicans in the gallup sample.

Realistically, the best way to read the polls is to track the results and obtain a trendline. The part that is surprising is how the McCain lead evaporated after the convention bump.

Whats going to happen is anyones guess, but it will be interesting to see if McCain recovers from what appears to be a significant change in his position regarding regulation of investment firms.

I guess all you and I can do is watch.

Hand in there the roller coaster has just left the station!