GOP Sees Rebound In Battle For Congress

Washington Post: Party Hopes Recent Momentum Will Help Limit Losses In House And Senate Races

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Shailagh Murray and Paul Kane.

---

Like many of her Republican colleagues concerned about their reelection prospects, Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina skipped the party's national convention to focus on campaigning back home. But even in her absence, the gathering may have given her bid for a return to office its biggest boost yet.

Volunteers began showing up at GOP campaign offices at quadruple the pre-convention pace, many of them conservatives who were lukewarm to presidential nominee John McCain but ecstatic about his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Their enthusiasm could be Dole's saving grace on Nov. 4.

"We have to move out of here and take on this fight big-time," Dole said at a GOP dinner in North Carolina earlier this month, acknowledging, "We're in a very tough cycle."

After months of fundraising doldrums, recruitment misfires and daunting polls, Republicans believe they are finally on the rebound in the battle for Congress. Both sides concede that the GOP stands almost no chance of taking back the House or Senate in November, but party leaders think the Palin factor and an increasingly competitive fight for the White House have generated enthusiasm and momentum that could limit GOP losses to only a few Senate seats and perhaps fewer than a dozen House seats.

As evidence of the jolt provided to the party base by the Republican convention and the selection of Palin, strategists point to recent polls showing a bounce in "generic" polling. In August, a USA Today-Gallup poll gave Democrats a 51 to 42 percent lead on the question of which party voters would support in a congressional election in their district. In the days after the GOP convention in St. Paul, Minn., ended earlier this month, Republicans had climbed to a 50 to 45 percent advantage.

Republicans are especially bullish about the changing Senate landscape. Democrats have never envisioned an easy path to a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority, but polls suggest that prospect has been reduced to a near impossibility in recent weeks.

Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign has pulled out of Georgia, probably a fatal blow to former state representative Jim Martin in his bid to unseat Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss. Another long shot, state Rep. Rick Noriega in Texas, has been outraised 9 to 1 by Republican Sen. John Cornyn. State Sen. Andrew Rice is not showing significant gains against GOP Sen. James M. Inhofe in Oklahoma, and Republican Sen. Susan Collins appears to be holding firm in Maine, where she faces Rep. Tom Allen.

"Sarah Palin definitely gave a boost, no question" said Sen. John Ensign (Nev.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "In races where we were way down, a lot of those races are even. In some of the races that were even, we are up." And public polls do not tell the full story, Ensign argued. He said internal data show a decisive shift among likely Republican voters who appear ready to turn out in droves on Election Day in states across the board.

But Democrats continue to believe that their prospects remain bright in a number of states that would normally appear to be reaches for the party, including the showdown in North Carolina between Dole and state Sen. Kay Hagan. The party's best chances in the Senate are open seats in Virginia and New Mexico, gateways to two regions -- the South and the West -- that Democrats hope they have room to grow in. The party also has strong potential in Oregon, Colorado, New Hampshire and even Mississippi.

Despite the Dole campaign's renewed optimism, polls show the presidential race is close in North Carolina, and congressional elections analyst Stuart Rothenberg recently shifted the state race from "narrow advantage for incumbent" to "tossup," concluding in his Sept. 10 newsletter that "North Carolina is a problem for Republicans."

Mississippi is a GOP headache that neither party anticipated until Democrats scored an unlikely victory in a special election to fill a vacant House seat in the state earlier this year. Party leaders convinced former governor Ronnie Musgrove to challenge Sen. Roger Wicker, who was appointed to the seat left vacant by Republican Trent Lott's resignation earlier this year. The NRSC has become so concerned with its prospects there that it announced this week that it would finance its second statewide round of advertising for Wicker.

Ensign said he remains "very confident" that Republicans will be able to prevail in North Carolina and Mississippi, but acknowledged that such unexpected vulnerabilities have created a financial hardship for his committee -- which lagged far behind its Democratic counterpart in available cash, $43 million to $25 million, at the end of July.

Sen. Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the only discernable slippage in Senate polls for Democrats has come in Alaska, Palin's home state (although he noted that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is still favored over Republican Sen. Ted Stevens, who will go on trial next week on corruption charges).

Disputing Ensign's rosy view of the playing field for Republicans, Schumer said Democratic candidates have stabilized in Colorado and New Hampshire and have gained in races in Oregon and Minnesota. "I expected us to be down in the last two weeks in a number of races," he said. "But we have found that the little surge that McCain and Palin have had, which we think is temporary, has not affected our Senate races. We're in better shape today than we were a month ago."

Republican optimism also is on the rise in the House, where more than 70 seats are considered competitive. Minority Whip Roy Blunt (Mo.) predicted that increased enthusiasm among Christian conservatives will result in a strong finish for McCain and GOP congressional candidates. In addition to Palin, Blunt credited McCain with his performance in a nationally televised appearance with evangelical minister Rick Warren that was well received by conservatives, along with his reversal on offshore oil drilling (McCain now favors expanding production).

"We still have some significant challenges out there, but House Republicans are feeling a lot better," Blunt said.

Democrats continue to take heart in the fact that President Bush remains deeply unpopular -- something a fresh round of economic turmoil is unlikely to change -- and the party's challengers in races nationwide, such as Hagan, are working furiously to link Republican incumbents to his legacy. The president frequently visited North Carolina when Dole ran for the Senate six years ago. The former Cabinet secretary touted her close ties to the administration.

Dole's loyalty may now be cutting the other way. Hagan connects her to Bush in every speech and campaign ad, and even Dole insiders concede that Hagan's hard-charging style and aggressive fundraising paid early dividends, drawing the notice of Democratic leaders months ago and resulting in a big advertising investment for her despite Dole's lopsided victory in 2002.

Neither side is pulling punches. One pro-Hagan DSCC ad featured two older men in rocking chairs debating whether Dole was "92" or "93" -- a reference to her voting percentage in support of Bush, but widely interpreted as a dig at her age (she is 72).

Dole responded with an ad questioning Hagan's truthfulness, portraying the Democrat as a barking dog named "Fibber Kay." An NRSC-funded spot features a Dr. Seuss-style reading lesson about Hagan's tax record.

But Hagan's biggest asset may be the massive Obama organizing effort that began in the state during the primary season. New voter registrations favor Democrats by an 8 to 1 ratio.

Hagan said she noticed "a bump after the Republican convention," but contends her race with Dole "is starting to settle back down." Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.), the Democratic vice presidential nominee, campaigned in Charlotte earlier this week, and Obama's wife, Michelle, appeared on her behalf in Greensboro yesterday.

Dole spokesman Dan McLagan said he is confident that the race has shifted. "I get the sense that we're starting to pull away," he said. But state political experts say the outcome is far from clear.

Andrew Taylor, a political science professor at North Carolina State University, said: "The state is increasingly cosmopolitan, with a large number of people who have moved in from the East and the Midwest. Dole used to be seen as the kind of Republican who should do well in the new demographics. The old Republican model was seen as antiquated, and she represented the new model. If she can't win, or doesn't win, I think it says more than 'It's a bad year.'"

[ragnar30066]

Rebound for Republicans? Why is that?

Pelosi and Reid declared the war in Iraq was lost, but some stupid general went ahead and won it anyway. It wasn''t their fault.

Pelosi and Reid opposed energy independence, and turned out the lights on Congress for five weeks so they could think about it on vacation. But some stupid candidate for President demanded the resumption offshore drilling and messed up the whole thing. Not their fault.

Fannie Mae crashes while stuffing the pockets of democrat congressmen and women full of campaign contributions, and demanding that they be bailed out by the taxpayers. Pelosi and Reid declare another emergency and slink out for another vacation. Now that stupid Candidate for President is reminding everyone that he predicted this and tried to do something about it in 2005, but there was too much money to be had so they put a stop to that. Not their fault.

Nothing is Pelosi and Reid''s fault. They have done nothing and have opposed anyone who has tried to do something. They and the rest of their obedient democrats (including their favorite parrot, Obama) need to be turned out of office and made to go to work for a living. Preferably not as lawyers, which seems to be what most of them once were.

The democrats in Congress need to be replaced by people who have worked for a living.

[homespunlady]

Has anyone else noticed that McCain/Palin are trying to appear to be Democrats?

They rant against "corruption" and the "failures" of REPUBLICAN leadership and I couldn''t believe an earlier speech where McCain actually mentioned Republicans as a cause of the problems we''''re now facing.

They DON'' put their party on their signs and use "Democrat Blue" for their background on their signs.

I started to NOTICE this LACK of IDENTITY in a LOT of the Republicans running for office.

Sheesh you''d think they''re EMBARRASSED by THEIR OWN PARTY.

But the candidates for the HIGHEST OFFICE refusing to acknowledge on their signs they are REPUBLICANS and trying to HIDE that fact TOO???

Where are the BRIGHT RED backgrounds I USED TO SEE on their signs and the word REPUBLICAN PROUDLY DISPLAYED on those signs?

Where is the TRUTH as to WHAT PARTY they belong to?

I see a LOT of Democratic SIGNS PROUDLY DISPLAYING their PARTY affiliation.

GOP - the "STEALTH PARTY" HIDING their IDENTITY and acting like IDENTITY THIEVES stealing the OTHER Candidate''s PLATFORM, signs, ideas, etc in hope of MISLEADING voters??

How PATHETIC can Republicans get by trying to be Democrats? OWN UP and CHANGE PARTIES if you''re going to use the SAME platform and talking points!

That way maybe the Constitution Party or Libertarian Party might have a chance.

[apinchofsalt]

There are a lot of people out there who have lost their homes or have no home to live in, while rich people have 7 or more homes. Obama should not only take rich people''s money, but he should take their houses and give it to people that need it.

[babooph]

Please tell us if their platform includes "family values" I want to be sure to use a different mensroom.

[dvsden]

So the Dems "own congress" so all these problems are theirs? Who was in congress in ''00 when Phil Gramm put in the enron loophole? Who was running congress in ''03 at the beginning of the Iraq war when Oil was below $30 a barrel? Who passed the Bush tax cuts? Who refused to look at the subprime mortgageboom in ''02-05? It was the GOP congress

McDole and Caribou barbie are running AGAINST the GOP! How can GOP senators and congressmen even compete when the top of their ticket is railing against the GOP policies that created this mess?

Even if McDOle pulls this out, he is looking at a 40+ Dem majority in the House and 56-58 Dem Senators.

[ubrew12]

littlebuddyd said: "Every election cycle the economy takes a severe down turn just before the election. This is a fact. "

The stock market typically peaks during election years, then goes down after the election. Its easy to see from a plot of the DOW. I don''t think you know what you''re talking about.

[delmer12]

Well first poltik I am not a dude.I belong to DEM party and have been registered since 1961. My problem with Barack is that he uses people to advance his own goals and not others. Please name me one thing that he accomplished of significance he accomplished while in elected service. He opted not to join the military because the war was over (he said). He has never been in a business. Where did his expertise in economics come from maybe Tony Rezko? He showed him how to get a house on the cheap. Hospital doubles Obamas wifes salary and Barack gets the hospital $1000000 earmark. second largest amount of campaign contributions from Fannie Mae went to Obama, please dispute if you can.

[rjstolba]

NOT IF I HAVE ANYTHING TO DO ABOUT IT!!!!
THE REPUBS GOT US TO WHERE WE ARE TODAY. IF THEY THINK THE AMERICAN PUBLIC IS GOING TO LET THEM OFF THE HOOK, THEY HAVE A REAL SURPRISE COMING!!!

[polticskamar]

To the 71 yrs old dude. first of all thas one problem, time has change and your agrument dosent pass the smell test. Reason. why? You a democrat. You belong to a party so if your party nominate a candidate that means the candidate represent the majority of your party values and issues that concern you and the people that follow. second of all qualification is an opinion is not a fact. The most qualified people sometimes do the most outrageous staff example powell, cheney, rumsfell, and Bill CLINTON PLUS HIS WIFE SO AS YOU COULD SEE QUALIFICATION IS NOT THE REASON WHY YOU NOT SUPORTING OBAMA.IF YOU LONG LONG LONG TIME DEMOCRAT LIKE YOU SAY YOU ARE THIS YEAR THIS YEAR IS THE MOST IMPORTANT YEAR IN YOUR LIFE TIME WHAT YOU GONNA DO.

[polticskamar]

I REALY CANT GET WHY THE SAME PEOPLE WHO BEEN DESTROYING THIS COUNTRY FOR EIGHT YEARS NOW EVEN MORE, GET TO DO IT AGAIN FOR FOUR MORE. AMERICA LAND OF THE STUPID IN MY OPINION.

[delmer12]

I voted for Hillary Clinton in the Florida primary and the way the votes were treated gave me pause as to why I was a Democrat. Then the Democrat politicians that I respected started bashing Hillary viciously and caled Bill a racist. In my opinion there is one racist running for President and his name is Barack.

[delmer12]

I am a 71 year old lifelong Democrat, Barack Obama is the least qualified presidential candidate in my lifetime. If someone can give me one solid thing that Obama has done to benefit any person other than himself I will consider voting for him, No business, militaryor other experience. Not qualified.

[ragnar30066]

Our "do nothing" Congress goes on vacation every time a serious problem like gasoline prices or the Fannie Mae crash comes up. Then a few weeks later they sneak back in, put fingernail polish on a *** and declare the problem is solved.

They should have stopped obstructing energy development a decade ago. They should have put a leash on Fannie Mae when McCain told them it was needed in 2005.

How is it these guys come to Washington with a net worth of a few hundred thousand dollars, and on a salary of $160,000 become multi-millionaires in just a few short years? Does the Congressional Credit Union pay interest rates of 1500% per year?

Stop politics as usual. Throw the bums out. Replace them with people like Palin who won''t tolerate them.

[homespunlady]

Think about it...WHAT could this nation have bought with the TRILLIONS that the FAT CATS have STOLEN from the American TAXPAYER?

Repairing Infrastructure?

Stabilizing Social Security?

TOP of the Line Health care for all?

$50,000 for EACH homeowner?

NEW SCHOOLS for EVERY DISTRICT?

and the POSSIBILITY of EVERY ONE of those and more are GONE - REPLACED by INDENTURED SERVITUDE for EVERY TAXPAYER to the OWNERS of the NEO-FEUDAL SYSTEM.

[ttkkdd]

Gosh! I wouldn''t have recognized her at all if it wasn''t for the caption beneath the photo. She put on a lot of weight!

[ttkkdd]

McSame''s slogan is Country First.
But wait. He gives millions of tax breaks to the richest 0.5% such as himself and his lobbyist cronies running his campaign.
Sounds to me like McSame = Country Club First

[hsinco-2009]

The Palin/McSame campaign is in the beginning of stages of implosion.

The fun has just begun. Both of them ''''Vricks are in over their heads!

[hsinco-2009]

The Palin/McSame campaign is in the beginning of stages of imposion.

The fun has just begun. Both of them ''Vricks are in over their heads!

[cfin5]

I recommend the Constitutionalists, Independents, and "America First" Republicans and Democrats have an old fashioned pow wow in private. Drop their hatchets at the front flap and come to minds on our Constitution and Bill of Rights NOW! Globalist are not welcome anymore.

[pastdue1]

Maybe because we''''re tired of seeing the 700 billion a year go out of the country, thanks to the Democraps not allowing us to drill here ?
Posted by speakinup21 at 02:46 PM : Sep 19, 2008

Are you sure you have your facts straight. For years, the oil companies have not developed millions of acres and, in fact, shut down much drilling in the US because it was cheaper to buy foreign oil. It really had nothing to do with the Democrats or Republicans. Now, the upheavals in the Middle East, partially caused by the Iraqi War, has given the oil companies a case to demand that they be given access to many more millions of acres. The only way the Democrats or Republicans are involved is which party is prone to give the oil companies their way?