McCain Closes Gap In Hillary's Home State

National Review Online: New Battleground? Obama Losing Ground To Republican Nominee In New York

(National Review Online)  This column was written by David Freddoso.

‘Within striking distance in New York . . . ”

These words come from a New York Republican party press release, so take them with a grain of salt. But with a new independent poll showing McCain just five points behind Democrat Barack Obama in New York State, the idea is not necessarily as unrealistic as it first sounds.

A Siena poll of likely voters, conducted on September 8 and 9, shows Obama with an anemic 46 to 41 percent lead in the state. By contrast, John Kerry won by 19 points in 2004, and just this June, the same poll gave Obama an 18-point lead. McCain has narrowed the gap slightly each month since then.

More striking is Obama’s loss of the 24-point edge he held among women in June, which the Siena poll pinned at just two points last week. More than half of the erosion came before the selection of Sarah Palin.

“There is the Hillary Clinton factor as well,” said Steven Greenberg, who conducted the poll for Siena. “That’s important here in New York.”

The Siena poll also shows a pronounced swing among Jewish voters, who typically comprise up to 12 percent of the statewide vote. The margin of error for this group is large at 11 percent, but the 35-point swing leaves Obama trailing 32 to 54 percent.

McCain’s favorable/unfavorable ratings have improved substantially since June, whereas Obama’s have slightly worsened. Voters prefer Obama overwhelmingly on issues of education and health care, but they rank McCain higher on national security issues and trust in his qualifications more than in Obama’s.

Can McCain play in New York? His allies like to think so, and hope that he will dedicate resources to a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans five-to-three. “McCain’s level of independence does strike a positive note in New York State,” said Jerry Kassar, Brooklyn chairman of the state’s Conservative party, which will be endorsing McCain on Monday.

New York Democrats are doing their part to get McCain elected as well. In addition to the prostitution scandal that forced the resignation of Gov. Elliot Spitzer earlier this year, several among their ranks have received unflattering news coverage this month:

U.S. Rep. Charlie Rangel (D., Manhattan), the chairman of the U.S. House committee that writes the nation’s tax policy, has admitted to dodging his income taxes, failing to report rental income from his resort condo in the Dominican Republic. This week, Roll Call reported that he also misreported the value of a condo he bought in Florida in 2004 on his financial disclosure forms, and then failed to report the $70,000 profit that he made from selling it. Rangel currently holds four rent-controlled apartments in Manhattan - a rare feat for a non-congressman. Democrats have responded to these apparent ethical breaches by closing ranks around Rangel.

Malcolm Smith, the Democratic minority leader of the state Senate, told a group of lobbyists that they must either begin contributing to Senate Democrats now, or be shut out of the Senate if Democrats win a majority there in November. When the lobbyists present complained to reporters about this obvious shakedown attempt, Smith said that his remark had been meant as “entertainment.”

Assemblyman Anthony Seminario (D., Queens) has been charged with taking $500,000 in bribes in connection with his legislative work. Seminaro was charged after an investigation that included an undercover FBI agent posing as a contractor, whom Seminario brought down to the floor of the state assembly.

Local issues may have a very limited effect on the presidential race, but they could create extra burdens for New York’s Democratic party even as it is needed to keep Obama afloat.

McCain may not be able to carry the Empire State and its 31 electoral votes this fall - after all, no Republican has done so since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide over Walter Mondale. But if McCain can force Obama to dedicate any time or resources to defending New York, that alone will improve his chances in swing states with many electoral votes, such as Ohio (20), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (21), and Michigan (17).

An expensive ad buy in New York could also give him a shot at neighboring states, said Barry Zeplowitz, a Buffalo-based pollster who is doing polls for McCain in other states. “The metro market obviously impacts New Jersey and even Connecticut,” he said. Although Connecticut does not appear to be competitive, a Quinnipiac poll released yesterday shows McCain trailing by just three points in New Jersey.

Greenberg, who conducted the Siena poll, cautioned against reading too much into its results until other polls confirm it, and promised a future poll to see where the trend-lines go from here. “This was a snapshot coming out of the two conventions and the two vice presidential selections,” he said. “We want to go back in a couple of weeks and look again as the campaign really gets going.”

[eggy1620]

I find both very telling and extremely amazing that the NRO has had nothing to say about Bush nationalizing Wall Street like it was a Venezuelan oil company.

[tonyd_31]

NRO is just excercising something we call "wishful thinking". But hey, check out NC and Ohio polling numbers and why you are at it, check Florida :)

[kazoodan]

an executive, House and Senate all controlled by democrats (who have controlled both House and Senate while gas went from $1.50 to $4.00 and Wall Street collapsed); experience.

Posted by bullyforhim at 09:50 PM : Sep 17, 2008

The last time gas hovered around $1.50 per gallon was late 2002 to early 2003. I wish you wing nuts would stop putting out this lie that the Democrat controlled congress is responsible for a $2.50 increase in the last 2 years.

[fsw3]

Hillary could have run in her REAL home state, Illinois, and ironically defeated Barack Obama. Maybe then she would have been the presidential nominee.

[craigh9]

I still get upset every time I see a headline like this. New York is NOT Hillary''s home state. She is the ultimate carpetbagger - she only came here because the rules allowed it and the political bosses owed her husband a favor. All she has ever been concerned with is Hillary - New York is just a tool she uses

[bluestardad]

MORE MEDIA HYPE TO BUMP RATINGS!

THIS RACE IS NOT EVEN CLOSE!

REPUBLICANS WILL BE LUCKY TO CARRY 4 STATES!

ARE YOU BETTER OFF NOW THAN 8 YEARS AGO?

AMERICA STAND UP OR SHUT UP!

[w1217s]

AND OBAMA IS NOW AHEAD IN INDIANA AND THIS BEFORE THE BUSH MCCAIN PANIC HAS EVEN BEEN FULLY MEASURED.

[stn_sage]

How easily the public is hood-winked!

Too many people equate ''time in service'' as the same thing as ''learned from experience'', IT IS NOT!

McCain has so little to show for 26 years in the Senate it''s laughable! And, he admits he doesn''t know anything about economics. And he''s shown us he doesn''t know anything about foreign relations and war! And he was for granting amnesty to illegal aliens BEFORE he was against it! And, on top of that---he thinks SO much of America, he picks Palin as his running mate!

Maybe Obama isn''t the guy you''d want to have a beer with, but is that the measure you choose to use?!

He''s reasonably intelligent and NOT likely to make any serious mistakes, unlike McCain or Palin, who will carry on in ''W''s tradition no doubt!

[sean5002]

AS long as Barack wins the state, it doesn''t matter if its by 15% or 1 % as long as he wins it and he will.

[rchap48]

i think that was what al gore said right before he lost his home state of tennesee

[toby2957]

As a New Yorker, I can firmly state the the NRO writers are all on crack if they think New York will vote red. LOL! The very concept is ridiculous!!

[jmmalone2]

If You were The Boss... which team would you hire?

With America facing historic debt, multiple war fronts,
stumbling health care, a weakened dollar, all-time high
prison population, skyrocketing Federal spending, mortgage
crises, bank foreclosures, etc. etc., this is an unusually
critical election year.

Let''s look at the educational background of the
candidates and see what they bring to the job:

Obama:
Occidental College - Two years.
Columbia University - B.A. political science with a
specialization in international relations.
Harvard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna *** Laude

Biden:
University of Delaware - B.A. in history and B.A. in
political science.
Syracuse University College of Law - Juris Doctor (J.D.)

vs.

McCain:
United States Naval Academy - Class rank 894 out of 899
(meaning that, like George Bush, McCain was at the bottom of
his class)


Palin:
Hawaii Pacific University - 1 semester
North Idaho College - 2 semesters - general study
University of Idaho - 2 semesters - journalism
Matanuska-Susitna College - 1 semester
University of Idaho - 3 semesters - B.A. in journalism

Now, which team are you going to hire to lead the most
influential nation in the world?

[polpot4]

.....for whom the bell tolls...
Liberals are in their death throes as we speak.

the end is near.....they are lashing out at everything....everyone......gasping for air.

the libs and their "messiah" are dead.......they just haven''t realized it yet.

Go to sleep now...

[superdem]

You Republicans will say and do anything to retain power. This nation is melting down because the Republicans destroyed all financial regulations, and all you can do is beat on the black guy. Disgusting. American needs to kick every Republican out. Who do you think all the greedy wall street thiefs McCain now criticizes ARE ??? REPUBLICANS, all of them !

[rational_1]

After looking at Obama''''a record it is no wonder that he''''s loosing ground fast!!!!!
Posted by commonsence1 at 02:22 PM : Sep 17, 2008

I think he''s loosing ground fast because voters have more recently been looking at his NON-record. Obama has been in the Senate for less than 4 years, half of which time he''s been running for President. Experience you can believe in?

Highlighting that you used to be a community organizer means the square root of squat when it comes to convincing voters you''ve got the experience and the insight to be President.