Electoral Map Looks Similar To 2004, 2000

Washington Post: Obama Still Seeks To Expand Battleground, But Familiar States Expected To Once Again Be Key To Victory

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Dan Balz and Peter Slevin.

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When the general election began a few months ago, Barack Obama's advisers talked optimistically about dramatically redrawing the electoral map. Their optimism remains, but as the campaign heads into its final 50 days, strategists for both parties say the election is likely to be decided on mostly familiar ground.

As in the past two campaigns, four big states -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Florida -- are expected to dominate the attention of the candidates. Democrats won the first two in both 2000 and 2004; Republicans won the other two both times.

Additionally, there will be battles in a group of smaller states now seen by the campaigns as most vulnerable to shifting sides. Five states that went for President Bush in 2004 are now high on the list of potential Obama states: Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. Two states that went for Sen. John F. Kerry are top targets of McCain's campaign: Wisconsin and New Hampshire.

Both candidates brought their campaigns to New Hampshire this weekend, signaling the importance of a state with just four electoral votes. Four years ago, the Granite State was one of three states in the country that switched allegiance between the campaigns of 2000 and 2004.

Obama advisers say they still have their sights on a number of Republican strongholds, among them Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota. With the benefit of a massive fundraising operation -- the Obama campaign announced Sunday it raised a record $66 million in August -- and huge numbers of volunteers, the Democratic nominee has the luxury to compete in states this fall that past campaigns would have had to abandon.

But Republicans and some Democratic strategists not associated with the Obama campaign say the overall electoral map has become more familiar in the past few weeks. One reason is McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. Her choice has helped to harden some of the red-and-blue political divisions of past years, dampening Obama's hopes of picking off some solid GOP states.

Reviewing the state of play a week after the Republican convention ended, McCain pollster Bill McInturff declared: "Obama's campaign's effort to extend the electoral map has largely failed. We once again have a pretty conventional and expected list of tossup states that will decide the election."

Steve Hildebrand, deputy campaign manager for Obama, disagreed, saying there has been no contraction of the Democratic nominee's ambitions to provide as many avenues as possible to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. "Other than Alaska being much less likely to be a competitive state because of Sarah Palin, we have not seen any reason to believe that we should shrink the map," he said.

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But Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who played key roles in the last two presidential elections, said of the electoral map, "I think it's going to look a lot like 2000 and 2004."

Palin's selection has brought a surge of energy and enthusiasm to a Republican base that had been tepid toward McCain, and Democrats say they have seen the effect in polls that have shown McCain gaining ground since the end of his convention.

"I think one of the things driving the national polls is that the red states are redder," said David Axelrod, one of Obama's closest advisers. "In the battleground states, the race has held pretty firm."

Several Obama advisers said over the weekend that they are beginning to see McCain's post-convention bounce dissipate. McCain's advisers, however, said that although some softening is likely, they believe Palin's impact already has been real.

A McCain adviser argued that the impact of Palin is being felt both in GOP strongholds and in battleground states, especially in rural areas, where she has made a very positive first impression. If that holds, it could complicate Obama's hopes of picking off Ohio or Missouri. He won the latter in the primaries, but it voted for Bush in the past two elections.

Privately, some Obama advisers see Missouri as very difficult to win, unless they can massively mobilize new and existing voters in the St. Louis and Kansas City areas.

Obama's campaign still sees opportunities in states such as Georgia and North Carolina, principally because of their efforts to register new voters and through a massive organizational effort to turn out registered voters who stayed home in the past. The campaign has spent almost $3 million on television ads in Georgia and has seen voter rolls grow by almost 400,000 since the beginning of the year.

"Do we think it's going to be one of the harder states to win? Yes," Hildebrand said. "Do we think it's winnable? Yes."

McCain's campaign has invested little in the state, believing that if Georgia goes for Obama in November, the election will be a landslide victory for the Democrat. McCain's team has husbanded its more limited resources and intends to remain disciplined in focusing on states it believes will decide the election.

"If we have to worry about Georgia in mid- to late October, we're going to get shellacked," a McCain adviser said.

But McCain's team says resources alone may not be enough for Obama. They note that the Democratic nominee spent more than $7 million on ads in Florida over the summer, at a time when their campaign was not advertising in the state, and did not significantly improve his standing.

Kerry won 252 electoral votes in 2004, so Obama needs to pick off some Bush states to win the election. The two likeliest are Iowa and New Mexico, although that would still leave him six short of 270.

Obama campaigned for a year in Iowa before winning the caucuses there last January while McCain largely ignored the state during nomination battles in both 2000 and 2008. A Des Moines Register poll released Sunday showed Obama leading McCain in Iowa 52 percent to 40 percent.

New Hampshire, however, could go the other way. McCain won the GOP primaries there in 2000 and in 2008 and is better known in New Hampshire than perhaps anywhere outside of his home state of Arizona. Obama campaigned hard there last year, but still lost the Democratic primary in January to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

New Hampshire took a sharp turn toward the Democrats two years ago, but McCain's popularity there could offset that advantage. New Hampshire strategists said over the weekend that independent voters, whom both McCain and Obama courted during their respective primaries, will decide the outcome in November, particularly the more than 100,000 independents who did not vote in either primary.

Obama hopes to pick off two other Western states to edge himself over the 270 mark, with his best chance seen in Colorado rather than Nevada. Colorado also has moved toward the Democrats since 2004, and Obama is counting on his organizational strength to pull him through there. But Republicans see Palin as someone who could help significantly in the Western states.

Virginia, too, has trended toward the Democrats in recent elections, making it ripe for a possible switch despite backing Republicans in every presidential race since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson carried it. McCain's team sees holding onto the state's 13 electoral votes as critically important.

McCain has fewer opportunities for switching states, but his first priority is to hold onto the two big battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio. His campaign has growing confidence that Florida will remain in their column. One Obama adviser, who declined to be identified in order to speak candidly, expressed pessimism about Florida but said the longer the Democrats can keep the state competitive, the more McCain may be forced to spend to defend it.

Ohio remains competitive because of the economy, but there are signs that Palin could help boost the vote in rural areas, where Obama was very weak in the primaries.

Republicans targeted Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2000 and 2004, only to come up short. Obama holds narrow leads in both, according to public polls. McCain's team sees opportunities, particularly in Pennsylvania, but both states could be difficult for the Republicans.

Another possible switcher for McCain is Wisconsin. Democrats won it in both 2000 and 2004, but it was one of the closest states in the nation both times. A poll yesterday in the Minneapolis Star Tribune showed a deadlocked race in Minnesota, but the McCain campaign is cautious about its chances there.

[dj292009]

In Fact I dare any of you to tell me otherwise. I will personally hand you my e-mail address and we can talk via phone. I have been outraged by you telling us we are less of an american that you are.

[dj292009]

I love this idea that the republicans seem to think that they are the only american ink this country. I was born in the United States and I will Die in the United States. I am a full-blooded american who is voting for Obama. If any of you have a problem with that I urge you to contact me directly and tell me otherwise. Just cause I am not voting for McCain does not me I am stupid, or hate AMERICA. IN FACT I LOVE THIS COUNTRY

[navvet2]

Late in the 4th quarter, McCain intercepted the "change" football from Obama and is running with it. Now, he and Sarah Palin are driving for a TD with independents and undecided voters to end the game. The latest polls from Minnesota are a good reflection of this. McCain is leading Obama 53% to 41%. Who would have thought it?

[libh8er]

''Electoral Map Looks Similar To 2004, 2000''

Sounds like BAD NEWS for bedwetting libs and democrats! LOL

[rational_1]

Why should people who work to earn thier money be taxed at a higher rate than those who dont?
Posted by dinkydog1 at 08:53 AM : Sep 16, 2008

Ya just gotta love socialists. Been working hard and made lots of money for you and your family? Great - now we''ll take a big chunk of your income to ''re-distribute'' to the schlub who''s been sitting on his front porch drinking beer and laughing at you while watching you drive to work. If we give him your money, we''ll certainly get his vote.

Now stop reading this website and get back to work. We need your tax money - that schlub''s beer isn''t just going to buy itself you know.

[bubba027]

Tawpdawg111

One with closed eyes will never see.
Obama recommended ***-ed for children K-12. K is for Kindergarden. After the controversy he made conflicting statements about his intent. Intent is a funny thing. The results of your actions don''t always follow your intent. That''s why judgment is so important. McCain has not attacked Obama for his race or made any implications. The only one that talks about race is Obama. Democrats are leading Congress and have always made up a significant part of it, but somehow they are in no way culpable for any of this country''s woes. that''s my friend makes absolutly no sense whatsoever.

[tawpdawg111]

Myself, I think the McCain ad depicting Obama as the big black predator trying to awaken your children with seks-ed before kindergarten so he can come get them at night when in fact Barack was trying to write further PROTECTION guarantees for children from predators into Illinois law is perilous for McA-hole. Karl Rove even said as much on FAUX Newz Sunday morning.

Anyone else?

Oh, and one other thing that is pertinent as your retirement nestegg rides off into the sunset without you.......I am sure most already know but, if not......the man responsible for legislation de-regulating financial firms was none other than former Senator Phil Gramm R-Tx who has been McCains campaign co-chair and economic adviser. Its relative right now as DOW is in freefall and crooks scoop your money off the table. SEVEN-out, line away, pay the shorts!

[bubba027]

You can take the red-neck out of the woods, but you can''''t take the woods out of a red-neck.

After 8 miserable years, how can anyone continue to be so blind?
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Posted by mainedoggie

My neck isn''t red it''s black, but thanks so much for the sterotype it will take you a long way. If you can''t see that the credit and mortgage crisis has been building long before 8 years ago, you''re blinded by politics. The Pelosi led congress has served to hold all solutions at bay.

The Republicans have lost their way, but the Liberals keep going back to propose failed policies of the past and call them "change". It''s change all right. It can be irrepairable change. McCain is no god-send, but he''s been fighting fellow Republicans for years and Obama has no experience, is easily steered by stauch Democratic leaders, special intersts, and Anti-American theologies. I''ll place my bet on McCain.

[pmsnbc1]

Nobama has voted 97% of the time with Harry "I surrender" Reid and the LIB party line.

CHANGE? LOL....LOL again...

[mainedoggie]

You can take the red-neck out of the woods, but you can''t take the woods out of a red-neck.

After 8 miserable years, how can anyone continue to be so blind?