Obama Camp Fights To Take Virginia

Democrat Faces Uphill Battle In A Historically Red State

(AP)  Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are investing unprecedented time and money in Virginia, a state both parties have written off for decades as GOP turf.

But recent polls, the state's demographics and its history in presidential elections make clear that if Virginia really is a battleground, it's Obama who has the uphill fight.

Even Obama's most ardent and influential Virginia backer acknowledges that the Illinois senator faces a difficult but not impossible task to become the first Democrat to carry the state since 1964.

"He is an underdog because this 44-year drought did not happen by accident," said Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, one of Obama's earliest backers and a finalist to be his running mate.

Republicans excited their voters in Virginia with McCain's choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, Kaine said. Even so, he added, Obama's supporters still have plenty of energy.

Frank Atkinson, a longtime GOP adviser and author of two books on the party's ascendancy in Virginia, said McCain probably will prevail because of his edge among voters tied to the state's large military and defense industry interests.

"If Virginia is close, it probably means this state won't be a battleground because Obama has probably won the election handily," Atkinson said.

Virginia is not the same Republican redoubt it was eight years ago when George Bush beat Democrat Al Gore in the state by 8 percentage points, and Republican George Allen swept Democratic incumbent Sen. Chuck Robb from office. That election briefly gave the GOP control of every statewide elected office and both legislative chambers.

Since then, Kaine and his Democratic predecessor, Mark R. Warner, have dominated two gubernatorial elections and Allen was denied re-election by Republican-turned-Democrat Jim Webb.

"You've got more Democratic voters there, probably more independent-minded voters who are behaving more Democratically," said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager.

Mo Elleithee, a Democratic strategist and veteran of three Virginia campaigns, said Obama is to be credited for putting up a fight in Virginia.

"Eight years ago, the thought of a Democrat even setting foot in Virginia in a presidential race was a totally foreign concept," Elleithee said.

Obama trailed McCain by 6 percentage points in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll of 920 registered Virginia voters last week. Other polls have shown a McCain advantage of from 3 to 5 points.

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Obama is contesting areas normally not amenable to Democrats in presidential elections, including rural and overwhelmingly white southwestern Virginia, a region reeling from disappearing manufacturing jobs.

"Compare that to 2000, when Al Gore didn't even cross the Potomac," said Elleithee.

Warner, Kaine and Webb won with variations of the same script that Obama is now using: undercut Republican strength in rural areas, energize Democratic-voting urban areas and win in the moderate, educated and affluent suburbs.

Warner, who left office in 2006 with record high job-approval ratings, is strongly favored in his U.S. Senate race this year, and having him on the Virginia ballot can't hurt Obama.

But none of the Virginia Democratic triumphs came in a presidential election year, and things are different when the White House is on the line.

In the seven presidential elections since 1980, an average of 76 percent of the state's registered voters turned out. In the comparable seven gubernatorial elections, the average turnout has been 55 percent.

Republican-voting religious conservatives turn out heavily for presidential elections, partly to support candidates they believe will nominate Supreme Court justices hostile to abortion, gay rights and limits on school prayer.

Palin's addition to the ticket sent the signal those conservatives were looking for, said Ken Hutcheson, a veteran Republican strategist who has led numerous statewide campaigns, including Bush's 2004 re-election effort.

"Her nomination ensured they will come to the polls full force," Hutcheson said.

Virginia voters also found in Warner, Kaine and Webb a portfolio and a message more aligned to the state's moderate political tastes than Obama's.

"What often hurts the Democrats in Virginia is the national campaigns are focused more on the big swing states; Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan - with a message that hasn't been the best in Virginia," said Virginia Commonwealth University political scientist Robert D. Holsworth.

Obama still could defy the old electoral formulas. He has opened about 40 campaign offices across the state. His supporters have fanned out to register tens of thousands of new voters by the Oct. 6 deadline.

Registration drives, however, don't always translate into votes. Democrats led a voting drive that accounted for many of the 270,000 Virginia voters newly registered in 2004, but John Kerry lost Virginia by 9 percentage points.

Read the latest campaign news on Virginia from CBS News and around the Web.

[polpot4]

I LOVE ALL OF YOU PANICKED, CHICKEN LITTLES !!

the liberals (er..I mean dumocrats) know they will lose ...and they are scared to death. Their actions, words and frightened posts are testimony to that fact.
Mccain will take New York and shock the world!!

NOSAMA should have never told anyone that he was a lawyer.....and he should have courted "whitey".....even though he hates his white half.

It''s over for you **********.....Again!!

[kopana]

America, and fellow Virginians, we are deep trouble from the Bush administration from the very beginning of the election outcome in 2000----to now we are almost in economic ruin.... even
Republican Greenspan has stated that we are in an economic situation that is only seen once in a century....like an economic perfect storm...
we have climate change, (serious environmental issues THAT CAN AFFECT OUR LIVEHOODS, WAY OF LIFE, DISEASES THAT CAN KILL) that will make anything else including fighting terrorism look like a piece of cake....and who do we have to fix this unprecedented problem//Palin?????Oh please, she is anti-environment,(she is EVEN suing Bush Administration''s Department of Interior for listing polar bear as an endangered species, she is for teaching religious beliefs (creationism) in the public schools, separation of church and state???) alongside science and technology, Oh please!!!!I guess pALIN SUGGESTS we pray for solutions to our dead serious problems...diseases, energy alternatives. AMERICA WAKE UP, WAKE-UP, OR YOU WILL CRYING LIKE wE ARE NOW WITH BUSH. MCCAIN/PALIN = BUSH!!!

[fairtv]

I guess the rednecks of Virginia will be drinking a little bit more moonshine and the religious right will be doing all the praying they can, when Obama wins. Yes I am from Virginia and I will vote Democratic right down the slate, maybe we will be able to get rid of all the lying Republicans who try to buy votes with tax cuts and god.

[Lai K W]

Obama is not going to be the next president of US because of legend and myth. He enters the race with nothing to support his credential and his charm seems pale with the stardom of McCain-Palin. In short, he has nothing to sell that cause excitment.

I am sure that the conservatives is coming out in record number to fight back the liberal extremists this time. Hillary''s prediction of Obama''s defeat in Novemeber shall come true. The ''Change'' message from McCain-Palin is gaining on Obama-Biden day after day.

Nobama 08

[abbe91]

Look what all the lawyers in the senate brought us.
Posted by dante805 at 07:36 AM : Sep 16, 2008

You mispelled republican "liars", not lawyers.

[dante805]

The messiah has no shot at VA. Too many bitter small town working Americans here. The elitist Harvard lawyer needs to move on to Deleware or Maryland. cactus John and Moose Palin will dominate every county south of Fairfax. We dont need another team of lawyers (Obama and Biden) running this country. Look what all the lawyers in the senate brought us.

[madkeyra2]

Obama had to put out an ad inorder for the media to start talking about the Mccain campaign lies, or was it the crumbling economy that woke everybody up to realizing that Palin could possibly Commander and Chief who doesn''t answer questions during the election that we still don''t know. The America we know is in deep trouble and Mccain is 72 years old, had cancer 4 times and he thinks a untested, unvetted, underqualified, or knowledgeable on national security or any national issue is ready on day one to be commander and chief. This is absurd. If only the media was so gracious to Hillary Clinton she would have been the Democratic Nominee. Atleast Hillary Clinton was qualified. I can''t believe the media is given this Gov. from Alaska a pass just because their affraid of being called a sexist. The media needs to do there job unless they think Palin is ready to take on 2 wars and the leaders of those countries, a crumbling economy, a 10 billion dollar deficit, and a week dollar. Theres one more thing even scary than the economic crisis, Palin in charge of it.

[madkeyra2]

This is the first time during this race where I have heard protesters against a candiate in their own state. Palin has protesters who are not happy with her being VP and they donot support her. Now we have learned that her bridge to No where is a lie, Reforming Earmarks are a lie, 20% of America''s oil if from Alaska, Palin said is a lie. Also, Palin wasn''t even interested in National issues or Iraq until a week ago and now she''s going to reform Washington? Yeah Right! Palin had no voice on Iraq and now she''s on the stump talking about Iraq as if she had a position or perception about it besides god wanting the Iraq war. Give me a break. Palin is not ready to be Commander and Chief, she ready to be exactly what she is and that is Gov. of Alaska. Palin is repeating what the Bush speech writers wrote for her on the stump and then walks of the stage and doesn''t answer not one question. Tell me what VP nominee refused to answer a reporters question. The media is being played like fools. They cover her speeches, or write about them and knows she''s repeating lies that were already confirmed as lies and then they can''t even ask her about them. This is a shame. The Mccaim campaign is low.

[madkeyra2]

Sarah Palin is a fraud and the Mccain campaign has told a series of lies about Obama''s record and Palins record that they will have to answer. Palin was chosen only to rally up voters and decieve them into voting for the Mccain/Palin ticket. The Mccain campaign talks about sexist when Palin credentials are being sexist. I think the Mccain campaign is being sexist to chose a woman to energize the base that Mccain couldn''t and lock her up away from reporters like she''s unable to back up what she says on the stump and unreliable, untrustworthy or worst she really doesn''t know much. Either way I think the Mccain campaign will be exposed for the Mavericks, Reformers, and change agents. Their imposters. How can Mccain be for change when he''s deadlock with the Bush policies he wants to implement.