The Experience Paradox
Jeff Greenfield: Common Campaign Debate Over Experience Takes On A Bizarre Twist This Year
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McCain Takes Lead In Poll
John McCain has gained a two point lead over Barack Obama according to a CBS News poll. And, as Chip Reid reports, McCain's choice for running mate gets at least some of the credit.
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McCain Grabs Obama's 'Change'
As John McCain and conservative running mate Sarah Palin campaign across the nation, Barack Obama has mocked the GOP contender's new position on reform. Chip Reid reports.
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Palin Effect Boosts McCain
Sen. John McCain took a two-point lead over Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, according to a new CBS poll. Bob Schieffer tells Harry Smith that Sarah Palin has helped excite the GOP.
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Barack Obama
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John McCain
Some call him a hero, some a maverick. Will Americans call him Mr. President?
"The worst news for Mr. Nixon," John Kennedy told the Al Smith dinner back in 1960, "is that the Yankees fired Casey Stengel. It shows that experience doesn't count."
The quip, a play on the Nixon campaign slogan "Experience Counts", also shows that the issue is a hardy perennial in American politics. This year, it's taken on a bizarre twist, because the respective campaigns are offering arguments that can be used with equal force against themselves. If Joe Biden's 35 years in the Senate prove he is not an agent of change, as Sarah Palin argues, then what about John McCain's 26 years in Congress? If Palin's years as mayor of Wassila are the political equivalent of small beer, what about Barack Obama's years in the Illinois State Senate?
Beyond the "so's your old man" aspect of this back-and-forth -- no offense to John McCain intended -- this debate has revealed something remarkable about the "experience" issue: it's much more likely to matter in a vice presidential choice than in a presidential choice.
It is the unique nature of American politics that someone far beyond the nation's capital, someone with no experience in matters of national statecraft, can win a party's nomination for chief executive; indeed, it's something our European cousins find inexplicable. How can a peanut farmer from Georgia oust an incumbent president; how can an actor from Hollywood oust an incumbent president? How can a governor from Dogpatch -- okay, Arkansas -- oust an incumbent president? How can a Texas governor who couldn't find Pakistan on a map defeat (more or less) an incumbent vice-president with a quarter-century of Washington experience?
Americans don't find it all that puzzling: it's the historical antipathy to "Washington insiders"; the nominating process that long ago took the power away from political professionals and put it in the hands of primary voters; the capacity of the media to transform an unknown into a hot commodity in a flash (See "Obama, Palin, Convention speeches of..."). Within this process, however, lies a curious historical fact: the more voters have turned to outsiders as their presidential choices, the more these nominees have insisted on insider experience when choosing a running mate.
Consider recent history: from 1960 onward, we've had five nominees who came from beyond the Capital: Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Michael Dukakis, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush. In every case, these nominees chose running mates who were consummate Washington insiders: Carter chose Sen. Walter Mondale; Reagan picked Bush the First; Dukakis chose Sen. Lloyd Bentsen; Clinton picked Sen. Al Gore; and Bush the Second chose former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney. In fact, all of these selections were chosen because the Presidential nominees felt they had to balance their "outsiderness" with partners of unquestionable "insider" pedigree.
By contrast, only two vice-presidential nominees have not fit the "experienced insider" model. In 1968, Richard Nixon chose first-term Maryland Governor Spiro Agnew; and in 1984, Walter Mondale picked third-term Rep. Geraldine Ferraro. In both cases, the presidential nominees could argue that they were so clearly "experienced" that they did not need that quality in a running mate. And in both cases, the choices backfired: Agnew's foot-in-mouth disease resulted in the Democrats' airing an ad that featured a disembodied voice laughing hysterically at the idea of an Agnew presidency; the dicey real-estate connections of Ferraro's husband got Ferraro's historic-first nomination off to a wobbly start. (McCain's choice of first term Alaska Gov. Palin looks like a political winner, but we're not going to know this until she steps outside of the protective cocoon the McCain campaign has now erected for her)
Now take a step back from the history and ask yourself: does it make sense that presidential nominees demand more experience from their running-mates than voters demand of the presidential nominees? In a word, yes. In our long-distance campaigns, voters have months, even a couple of years, to assess the claims of the candidates. The press, the other candidates and the numberless voices across the Web, have time to examine every aspect of a candidate, from biography to friends and associates to public policy arguments. No matter how much a candidate lacks in traditional "experience", he or she will have had to come to grips with just about all the significant--and many insignificant--issues that a potential president might face.
In this sense, Rudy Giuliani's sarcastic reference to Barack Obama's "300 national security advisors" was revealing: Obama has indeed created something like his own national security apparatus within his campaign, just as George W. Bush turned to the Hoover Institute and George Schultz when preparing his own presidential run back in 2000.
This is also why, at a post-2004 gathering among operatives and the press, a top Bush campaign aide said the candidate they most feared was John Edwards. His less-than-one-Senate-term experience would not have been disabling the aide said, because the very fact of securing a major-party nomination gave that nominee credibility.
That does not apply to the vice-presidential selection process. Choosing a relative unknown means the public has to rely on the presidential nominee's standards and judgment; and that reliance is a lot easier to come by if the choice is someone the public can plausibly see as a potential president.
In choosing Sarah Palin, John McCain appears to have made the same calculation as Nixon did in 1968, and as Mondale did in 1984: "my credentials on the national stage are so clear that I can afford to pick someone the public doesn't know."
As a political calculation, that may work. The problem will come when and if voters cease to see McCain-Palin as a team, and ask themselves if they are comfortable with the idea of Palin as a potential commander-in-chief; a role five vice-presidents in the last century had to assume suddenly. If that question moves front and center, voters may decide, Casey Stengel to the contrary, that experience does count.
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See all 130 CommentsSo now Mccain sticks an unqualified ratical on his ticket and wants us to believe his campaign is a Change campaign.
Only problem is McCain is a washed up, has been who was drawing 500 people at his campaign stops, now Sarah Palin is bringing in 10,000 people at the events.
What people have to decide now is whether they want to vote for Sarah Palin as the leader of our country.
I''d rather talk about my baby, or my war record than....EARMARKS!
Or this:
The federal budget deficit will jump by $246 billion to $407 billion this year, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. Last year, the budget deficit was $161 billion. The agency attributes the jump to "a substantial increase in spending and a halt in the growth of tax revenues."
A gift from McBush to us.
CHANGE IS COMING.
Yeah.
You bet.
Riding in on the "Porkchop Express."
That young lady that testified in the Attorney FIRINGS ADMITTED that she swore loyalty to her "decider" OVER her country in her TESTIMONY.
Palin ALSO demanded a "loyalty oath" equivalent from HER underlings.
Thus you NOW GET EXCUSES for the INEXCUSABLE from those that believe in loyalty to PALIN OVER LEGAL REQUIREMENTS and the good of their STATE!!!
Sort of REMINDS me of a "gang mentality" where "loyalty" overrides even the basics in legality and decency.
BIOGRAPHY OVER ISSUES ... that LINE is SOO INSANE why can''''t some americans see that , THATS like HIRING SOMEONE TO RUN MY FORTUNE 500 COMPANY , BECAUSE HE WAS IN THE BOY SCOUTS AND WENT TO VIETNAM.
ITS INSANE , WHY DO PEOPLE GO AND VOTE IS BECAUSE OF WHO WILL FIX THE ISSUES AND PRESSING PROBLEMS SUCH AS HEALTHCARE , EDUCATION , HELP THOSE GET JOBS , THE ENVIRONMENT , AND WHO WILL IMPROVE THE INFRASTRUCTURE BUILDING NEW ROADS AND BRIDEES GOING INTO THE 21ST CENTURY , BARACK PLATFORM OF ISSUES WILL DO ALL THAT ,
ZERO POLICIES FROM MCCAIN BECAUSE HE IS USING THE SAME OLD POLICIES DATING BACK 20 YEARS THAT HAVE FAILED.
THIS ELECTION IS TURNING OUT TO BE ONE BIG JOKE , IS LOGIC TOUGH FOR SOME AMERICANS TO SEE.
Posted by Robert6781 at 01:53 PM : Sep 09, 2008
Well, unlike you---we liberals do have other media sources than that of Faux news, Lintball and Hannity.
We pretty much know the reason McCain is more willing to talk biography over issues is because his issues "mirror" Bushs!
We also are pretty sure Ms Palin isn''t up on many national/international issues---thus lets keep talking about McCains POW days.
That''s getting pretty old and desperate.
We''ll see who''s in "deep dodo"
So how much do we spend on earmarks vs. budget deficit?
Migration Mohammed Omar, warned the United States that if military
actions against Iraq continues, Taliban authorities will cut off
America''s supply of Convenience Store Managers and possibly candidates
for President of the United States. And if this action does not yield
sufficient results, Cab Drivers will be next, followed by DELL and AOL
Customer Service Reps; and then Motel 6 Managers.
It''s gonna get ugly!!!
Posted by Gun_Tower at 02:14 PM : Sep 09, 2008
NICE going!!!!
Now who can you get so sing it?
You need to get your head out of Limbaugh''s *** and check your facts!
Trinity United is not a "black liberation theology" church, whatever you think that is. It''s a memebr of the United Church of Christ which stands out prominently among mainline Christian denominations in efforts at bringing divergent Christian denominations and Jews together in a common dialouge. That''s why over 25 separate Rabbinical organizations have been early and active defenders of Obama and his faith against the smears of cretons like you!
He has condemned airs...do you not understand the meaning of the term despicable acts? That''s how Obama has described the acts of his neighbor that took place when Obama was 6 years old.
Just because someone doesn''t constantly lose his temper, call U.S. Senatos MFers, his wife a C, push elderly women in wheelchairs out of his way, and make jokes about bombing another country doesn''t mean he doesn''t care.
It means he''s a steady hand on the wheel when we need it most.
Posted by robert6781 at 02:16 PM : Sep 09, 2008
Please tell me who the "Keating 5" were.
So lets say McCain was one of the Keating 5--is that the same or worse than "associating" with someone?
Take the plank out of your eye before looking at the spec in robert6781.
The question is relevant because of McCain''s age. But, who knows, the Christian conservatives only care they have one of their own in the White House. That''s more important than experience obviously. God is the source of all wisdom and will be guiding with His infallible hand.
There''s no plank in my eye. Hannity wanted to debate a book and Wright was asking him to read it before arguing about it.
That may be the only reasonable thing I''ve heard from Rev. Wright.
What does Cone''s book have to do with the Church? It may have something to do with Wright''s own opinion but he''s just one of many Preachers at that Church and there''s no official doctrine related to those theories.
You should probably take your own advice not jump to negative conclusions about people based upon limited evidence combined with prejudicial stereotypes and hate.
Of course, it''s much easier to set the bar for others.
Of the 5, 4 were Democrats.
Of the 5, 3 were found guilty, all Democrates.
The other two were found to have exercises "poor judgement".
Poor Judgement!
Would that be like insisting you didn''t learn about the Koran in grade school, when you did ?
Or how about remaining friends with Rev Wright after hearing about "GD America" ?
What about maintaining friendships with SDS Weathermen that self-confessed to bombing the Pentagon and Capitol ?
Or what about ipso facto accepting property from people like Ratso Rezco ?
What about insisting the Selma March was the reason you were born - even though Obama was born 3 years before it took place - poor judgement ?
Or insisting that President JFK had Obama Senior brought over to attend school... Note JFK wasn''t in office until Obama senior was already in the US, by about 2 years.
So cut the crapola about "poor judgement", you and the rest of Obama''s supporters seem to be exhibiting enough of it yourselves.
"Earmarks", in any given year, add up to $10-$40 billion/yr. Social spending (that evil welfare and stuff) add up to less than $70 billion/yr. Current year budget deficit is over $400 billion.
So, how are you going to take care of the other $300 billion? For the past 8 years, the Republicans have been making up the difference by borrowing money. $10 trillion plus--more than double what it was when Clinton left office (it decreased during the Clinton years.
All of this debt devalues the dollar, and is a big part of why gasoline went from $2 to $4/gallon. The situation can''t hold.
So, Republicans and "independent conservatives"--exactly how do you propose to dig us out of this hole? None of your politicians seem to offer any realistic plan.
Here''s where you can get the facts and figures:
www.cbo.gov
www.treasury.gov
Who stands the better chance of doing the right thing in office? The candidate who wants to do the right thing and spells it out accordingly or the one who advocates continuing to do all the wrong things?
This is an easy one for peole with brains.
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Posted by ObamasLady at 02:53 PM : Sep 09, 2008
the fact that you do not undestand speaks in volume of your incompetence! For your info. Our incompetent leaders have keep us safe for more than 7 years , although hundreds of thousands of fanatics out there are literally DYING to hurt us . Our enemies are now living in caves whereas 10 years ago , any head of state would be very worry not to upset them in the slightest for that would mean bombs and suicide attacks upon their citizens . Now , we talk of Al-Qaida like something of the past , we do not fear them anymore . Also , the cost for war has been high BUT how does that compare with another of an attack the size of 9/11 our soil ??? NO , we rather lose money fighting and winning than lose money crying and whining ....Being a Pow does not qualify one to be the POTUS , it is what characters one reveals while being tortured as a POW that qualify one to be a leader of the freeworld , the POTUS.
Who stands the better chance of doing the right thing in office? The candidate who wants to do the right thing and spells it out accordingly or the one who advocates continuing to do all the wrong things?
This is an easy one for peole with brains.
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Posted by realpatriot1 at 03:21 PM : Sep 09, 2008
+ report abuse
The one who has the experience and knowledge to lead, and has been doing so for years.
Obama has NOTHING to draw on when a crisis occurs! He''s NEVER known one!
Not even to mention his Marxist ideology that he gets to re-distribute the wealth according to whom he thinks should have it...nor his ties to extremists and anti-Americans.
Read them again:
"Poor Judgement!
Would that be like insisting you didn''''t learn about the Koran in grade school, when you did ?
Or how about remaining friends with Rev Wright after hearing about "GD America" ?
What about maintaining friendships with SDS Weathermen that self-confessed to bombing the Pentagon and Capitol ?
Or what about ipso facto accepting property from people like Ratso Rezco ?
What about insisting the Selma March was the reason you were born - even though Obama was born 3 years before it took place - poor judgement ?
Or insisting that President JFK had Obama Senior brought over to attend school... Note JFK wasn''''t in office until Obama senior was already in the US, by about 2 years.
So cut the crapola about "poor judgement", you and the rest of Obama''''s supporters seem to be exhibiting enough of it yourselves.
Posted by RosieOD4Prez
Who stands the better chance of doing the right thing in office? The candidate who wants to do the right thing and spells it out accordingly or the one who advocates continuing to do all the wrong things?
This is an easy one for peole with brains.
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Posted by realpatriot1 at 03:21 PM : Sep 09, 2008
Where have you been??? Don''t you know that Mc Cain has opposed his party over and over again on: torture, immigration , tax cut (even Obama now says that in tough time , he rather leave the cut in place and they chatised Mc CAin for oppose it first and for it later ?), Troop levels in IraQ ( Mc cain was telling Bush about the Surge 2 years before Bush decided on it and it works brilliantly) ,campaign finance reform , abortion....It is Mc cain who got the praises from his Dem. pals and no one else! NOw how does Obama compares to that ??? Has Obama dared say things against Reid , Pelosi , DEan and the crooks who run the DNC???? Or did Obama think that the DEms is a PERPECT party that he should just follow whatever they diss out ? we all know the answer to that, don''t we?
And, once and for all, is Palin bordering on a lie when she touts her opposition to "the bridge to nowhere," when, in fact she first supported it and then opposed it, although she also got to spend the money for that silly bridge. And, by the way, why no discussion about how 50% of Alaska''s state revenues come from oil related revenue, most of which is paid by us in the other 49 states?
Cindy McCain is the first in her family to graduate from college? Cindy McCain graduated from the University of Southern California, not an Ivy League college, and went on to teach special needs children in the state of Arizona. Her life story is outstanding and that of a role model: the mother of four selflessly aids victims of land mines, birth defects, genocide, starvation, deprivation, and disease.
%u2022 1994: Mrs. McCain witnessed the Rwanda genocide first hand when her team risked their lives to help victims of gang rape, murder, hunger and disease. Mrs. McCain says she had to step over dead bodies to find those still alive.
%u2022 Mrs. McCain serves on the board of Operation Smile, a non-profit organization providing surgery to children born with cleft lips. 100,000 around the world children can smile because of Operation Smile.
%u2022 Mrs. McCain volunteered for missions to Morocco, Vietnam, and India. On one trip to India 17 years ago, Mother Teresa handed Mrs. McCain a newborn child born with a cleft lip -- surgery was the only thing that could save the baby%u2019s life -- asking her to take the child to a hospital in the U.S. Mrs. McCain, who says she could not part with the baby when she reached the U.S., told Senator McCain: %u201Cmeet your new daughter.%u201D The beautiful young woman named Bridgette McCain stood beside her mother and siblings to introduce her father at the Republican National Convention.
%u2022 She travels with the World Food Program: in 2008, Mrs. McCain joined WFP on a trip to Rwanda to deliver food and medicine to famine victims.
%u2022 2008: On the trip to Rwanda Mrs. McCain met a group called Women For Women International, an organization helping female survivors of war get educations, jobs, start businesses, receive counseling, rights, food, water, shelter, and medicine.
Mrs. Obama is accused of helping to shut down a Colorado pickle factory in 2005, causing 150 Hispanic workers to lose their jobs.
Mrs. McCain is not just another pretty wife of a politician in designer clothes: Cindy McCain doesn%u2019t just talk about lending a hand, she acts. Michelle Obama talks about bringing %u201Cchange,%u201D Cindy McCain has, in reality, gone out into the world and made a profound change in thousands of lives for the greater good of mankind.
The Republican Convention gave the world a look into the real life of the real Cindy McCain: she is the true definition of feminism. Between Cindy McCain and Sarah Palin women of America truly have two role models to look up to, admire, and aspire to be like.
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Posted by mmstar20 at 03:43 PM : Sep 09, 2008
Exactly!
Why they dont wake up and vote the Bums out is beyond me.
We are so fed up with washington Politics and the two party gridlock system it is apauling and abusive in all truth and so counter productive, Both major parties fighting for their paticular platforms or ideals when instead we as americans ought to be forceing them to do the right thing for America rather than allowing them to continue on their destructive and self serving ways.
Wouldnt Term Limits help solve this problem? I think so. Limit them to One term then out they go and bring in new Blood. I know that there are members of Both Major parties who agree with me.
How can we go about and create the enviroment of change and redirect their efforts to whats good for America regardless of which party makes the sudgestion or plan who cares as long as it is for the better good of all and not designed to give power to one over the other.
Real change is unblikely to happen and we will be forever slaves to a currupt system till we band together and change it.
The time is now!
Posted by RowdyO at 03:46 PM : Sep 09, 2008
This Dumb Repug is bringing up Cindy - Hasn''''t realised why she''''s being hidden by her husbands campaign ... LOL!
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Posted by parrots121 at 04:02 PM : Sep 09, 2008
Hidden where? Have you not seen the dozens of her interviews? Where have you been? On Obama.com.fulloflies?
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Posted by actornaught at 04:21 PM : Sep 09, 2008
I seriously doubt that statement to be true at all...but Cindy McCain certainly has a good business head on her shoulders and lots of proven leadership abilities...plus Sarah Palin is there for back up!
NOT that I have any doubt whatsoever that McCain will falter one step. He hasn''t missed a step since 2007.
THAT is rich. You''re just refusing to open your eyes. Addled John can''t even keep track of where he lives...
Sarah Palin is no more fit to be president than me. In fact less. At least I know the financial markets, including how Freddie and Fannie work or used to before yesterday, plus I have a really good grasp of foreign policy. I doubt she knows the difference between Sunni and Shiite.
what you been reading, boy?? Fossil John doesn''t even know how many houses he owns without checking with someone!
............. in which case Palin would still be chosen over Obama because her experience as Governor trumps his overwhelming lack of action in the Senate seats he has occupied .. and his work as a community organizer.
Posted by mr2258
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Who made you the expert on what a "true American" is??
Now...back to the real issues!
I''m tired of hearing about Palin''s baby.
I want to know what the two sides'' policies are.
Because here, clearly, Obama wins in a walk.
THAT is rich. You''''re just refusing to open your eyes. Addled John can''''t even keep track of where he lives...
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Posted by actornaught at 04:28 PM : Sep 09, 2008
Whatta crock! HIs wife owns several houses...he lives in a Condo in Washington...he doesn''t keep up with how many houses she owns or who lives in them, or what rent they pay to live in it.
Posted by smart4peace
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No bigger lie of the twentieth century than this republican "lower taxes" boilerplate they trot out every election. You can always depend on a republican to vow to "lower your taxes!".
And voters keep swallowing it. Amazing.
Where do they suppose the money came from to pay off the Raygun debt? Where will the money come from to pay off the idiot-sons debt? I doubt if it''ll be church collections. When a republican says he''s gonna "lower taxes", he means he''s gonna let your children pay off the debt.
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