WASHINGTON, Aug. 29, 2008

Source: Troop Withdrawal Report Submitted

Gen. Petraeus Gives Superiors His Initial Recommendation On Resuming U.S. Troop Drawdown, Says Source

  • A U.S. Army soldier from the 3rd Special Troops Battalion, 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, is silhouetted against the sun as he climbs over a wall during a patrol in the Shiite enclave of Sadr City in Baghdad, Iraq, May 15, 2008.

    A U.S. Army soldier from the 3rd Special Troops Battalion, 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, is silhouetted against the sun as he climbs over a wall during a patrol in the Shiite enclave of Sadr City in Baghdad, Iraq, May 15, 2008.  (AP Photo/Petr David Josek)

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(AP)  The top U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, has given his military superiors and Defense Secretary Robert Gates his initial recommendation on when to resume a U.S. troop withdrawal and at what pace, a senior military officer close to the process said Friday.

The officer, who spoke to The Associated Press only on condition that he not be identified, said Petraeus was still analyzing the situation and had not yet submitted a final set of recommendations. That is expected to happen within the next week or so, but there is no firm deadline.

The officer would not provide any specifics of Petraeus' initial recommendation. He was granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of Petraeus' deliberations and because they are not completed.

Petraeus is widely expected to conclude that the outlook in Iraq - politically as well as militarily - has brightened enough in recent months to merit more troop cuts this fall. At Petraeus' recommendation, President Bush halted the drawdown when the last of five Army brigades, sent in 2007 as reinforcements, pulled out in mid-July; Petraeus wanted time to analyze the impact of losing those five brigades.

His recommendations to Gates and to Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on how to proceed this fall will go to Bush for a final decision, likely in September.

Estimates of how deeply Petraeus would suggest cutting this autumn have generally ranged from one to two combat brigades, or roughly 3,500 to 7,000 troops. But some recent developments might argue for smaller reductions. That includes the unanticipated pullout of Georgian troops following the invasion of their country by Russia and a delay in holding Iraqi provincial elections.

There currently are 15 combat brigades in Iraq and a total of 146,000 troops, including tens of thousands that perform support, rather than direct combat, functions.

U.S. and Iraqi officials are working on a security agreement that would include at least a notional timeline for phasing out U.S. forces, to include a pullback of combat troops from Iraqi cities by June 2009 and a broader withdrawal by the end of 2011. That is separate from Petraeus' recommendations to Gates, which are thought to be focused more on shorter-term reductions.

Petraeus, along with his soon-to-be-successor, Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, and the No. 2 U.S. commander in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Lloyd Austin, has been doing what he calls "battlefield calculus" - studying ways of adjusting the positioning of U.S. troops in Iraq to possibly enable an overall reduction.

The commander of U.S. forces in western Iraq, for example, has said he could get by with fewer troops because security there has improved markedly and Iraq's army and police have gotten better. Security is more of an issue in areas north and northeast of Baghdad.

Based on that study, results of which have been provided by Petraeus to his superiors in Washington - and weighing a range of other factors such as trends in the level of violence - Petraeus has come up with "tentative recommendations" to Gates and others, the senior military officer said.

"However, the analysis is still ongoing and no decisions have yet been made," the officer said.

Adding to the calculations on troop reductions in Iraq is a growing concern in the U.S. government about a resurgent Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan and unfulfilled demands by U.S. commanders there for more U.S. troops. Significant additions in Afghanistan can't happen without reductions in Iraq.

Col. Peter Mansoor, who served as a close adviser to Petraeus in Baghdad until recently and is retiring from the Army in September, said in a telephone interview Thursday that while he is not involved in Petraeus' new assessment, he sees little reason to think that Petraeus would resist troop cuts.

"It's my belief, given the improvement in the security situation in Iraq, that there will be a continued withdrawal of U.S. forces, as promised by Gen. Petraeus at his last congressional hearing, later this fall," Mansoor said.

The senior military officer who disclosed that Petraeus had made an initial recommendation also told the AP that Afghanistan and other factors, such as war strains on the overall U.S. military, are considered in Petraeus' calculations on troop levels but are not decisive factors.

There is no specific deadline for Petraeus to submit his final recommendation, although it is expected before he turns over the U.S. military command in Baghdad in mid-September to Odierno. Petraeus' next assignment is as commander of U.S. Central Command, where he will be responsible for U.S. military involvement across the Middle East and Central Asia, including Iraq and Afghanistan.

It would be a major surprise if Petraeus did not recommend that troop reductions resume soon. In May, when he testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee, he suggested he was leaning in that direction.

"My sense is that I will be able to make a recommendation at that time for some further reductions," he said, referring to September. He made a point of saying then that the cuts might be modest.

"But I do believe there will be certain assets that, as we are already looking at the picture right now, we'll be able to recommend can be either redeployed or not deployed to the theater in the fall," he said.

© MMVIII The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Add a Comment
by babooph September 1, 2008 8:27 AM EDT
Does it show ,our favorite collaberators get out alive,like in Nam?
Reply to this comment
by babooph August 31, 2008 9:58 PM EDT
The hearts & minds thing must have worked-killing the 14 year old grandson of Saddam endeared the US forever in their eyes.
Reply to this comment
by timfitz42 August 31, 2008 6:50 PM EDT
Man, you guys can''t even get good news without scoffing at it. We removed Hussein and the country is almost ready to stabalize itself! That''s a good thing! Don''t underestimate the Iraqis, we may have destabilized them, but they are more than able to take care of their own country once Al Queda and other terror factions are expelled. Terrorists have turned it into a battle ground, but it''s not Iraq''s fault. Just cause we beat them doesn''t make them weak. Give them some credit and celebrate their chance at a new beginning.
Reply to this comment
by babooph August 31, 2008 3:52 AM EDT
All the stooges that worked for the propagandists, military & mercenaries will be dead fast when the US troops leave-the lucky ones will get to leave with them !!
Reply to this comment
by trrrorislam7 August 30, 2008 1:20 PM EDT
FASCIST NAZI TERRORISLAM IS THE PROBLEM,,,

DEMONIC-RAT HUSSEIN IS NOT THE SOLUTION,,,

EXPOSE HUSSEIN
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The Barack Obama Test
http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/02/the_barack_obama_test.html

Obama-Odinga-Rezko-Ayers-Auchi-Saddam Hussein
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIe4d9Nmg9k

Raila Odinga was also financially backed by Muammar al-Gaddafi. Raila Odinga is Obama''s cousin:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/717...

Why does Raila Odinga use Obama''s exact same campaign slogan: CHANGE....Vote for CHANGE: Look at his website:
http://www.raila07.com/


IMPEACH HUSSEIN NOW,,,

SIGN THE PETITION

Impeach, expel Barack Obama
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HUSSEIN IS NO COMMANDER IN CHIEF,,, lol

McCain Tops Obama in Commander-in-Chief Test; Stays Competitive on Iraq

Poll Finds 72 Percent of Americans Say McCain Would be Good Commander-in-Chief
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/Story?id=5370538&page=1

Obama: Commander-in-(mis)chief?
http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/imperium/2008/07/200872011345855233.html
Reply to this comment
by babooph August 30, 2008 11:17 AM EDT
Wow -censors blocked Cheneys first name-he must be very lowgrade for that to be happening!!!
Reply to this comment
by babooph August 30, 2008 8:02 AM EDT
Petraeus& Bush may have chosen to listen to Barack ,this time, instead of ***.
Reply to this comment
by ioweign August 30, 2008 7:04 AM EDT
Petraeus will publish it in the Washington Post like all his other "articles"...
Reply to this comment
by deacon20081 August 30, 2008 1:50 AM EDT
Just in time for the Elections huh GOPers?
Reply to this comment
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