Storm-Fueling Current May Be Monster-Maker

Gustav Headed For Loop Current Responsible For Katrina's Devastating Strength

(CBS/AP)  The difference between a monster and a wimp for Gulf of Mexico hurricanes often comes down to a small patch of warm deep water that's easy to miss. It is called the Loop Current, and hurricane trackers say Gustav is headed right for it, reminiscent of Katrina.

Gustav is likely to reach this current late Saturday, experts say. What happens next will be crucial, maybe deadly.

If Gustav hits the Loop Current and lingers in that hot spot, watch out. If the storm misses it or zips through the current, then Gustav probably will not be much of a name to remember.

The meandering Loop Current, located in the southeastern gulf, provides loads of hurricane fuel. It was a key stopover for nearly all the Gulf Coast killers of the past, including Katrina and Camille, said Florida International University professor Hugh Willoughby, former director of the government's hurricane research division.

Lynn "Nick" Shay, University of Miami meteorology and oceanography professor, flew over the gulf Thursday in a federal hurricane research plane to measure the Loop Current. He saw Gustav's forecast track going "right down the throat" of it.

"That's kind of the scary part here," Shay said. "You look at this and say, 'Boy I hope this thing doesn't really explode,' but it probably will."

It happened in 2005. "Katrina went over the Loop Current and intensified rapidly," said Mark DeMaria, a Colorado-based expert on hurricane strength with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Then less than a month later a weak tropical storm named Rita followed Katrina into the Loop Current. Thirty hours later it was a Category 5 monster.

Both Katrina and Rita later weakened - which often happens to Category 3 storms by landfall.

In the last several years, meteorologists have focused more attention on the Loop Current, which is only a couple of hundred miles long and not even 100 miles wide. The evidence linking it to the worst storms is beyond circumstantial, Shay said.

What is crucial is the depth of warm water in the current - several hundred feet - because it provides continuous high-octane fuel for a storm. Hurricanes use the heat from the water to grow stronger and in the process they churn up cooler water from below, which then slows or stops the feeding process. But in the Loop Current, the deeper water is also warm and it further feeds the storm.

The Loop Current constantly shifts, growing and shrinking and sending out smaller eddies. It is now starting to contract, but not soon enough.

On Friday, the National Hurricane Center warned: "Gustav is expected to be a large powerful hurricane as it approaches the northern gulf coast."

The one hopeful sign is that on his hurricane flight Thursday, Shay saw a pool of extra cool water north and west of the Loop Current. That could help counteract what he fears will be rapid strengthening.

Gustav plowed toward the Cayman Islands Friday evening as New Orleans officials considered issuing evacuations orders in an effort to avoid repeating Katrina's toll on the city. Gustav has already killed 78 people in the Caribbean.

[timfitz42]

Look, I am a believer of global warming. The evidence is obvious to me. But just because hurricanes hit the gulf coast during HURRICANE SEASON doesn''t suggest ANYTHING about global warming ... this is the standard for this time of year reaching all the way back to pre-human days. You want to point at the melting ice caps and say, "That''s global warming" then I''ll agree with you. Just don''t label every rain drop that falls as a sign of greenhouse gases.

[txgrouch2006]

Hurricanes thrive on heat, so when you add more heat, the hurricanes just keep getting more powerful. So yes, we had hurricanes before global warming, but now they are just able to gather more strength.
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Posted by noboundary at 03:46 PM : Aug 31, 2008

Update - Gustav has now passed "The Loop," and it is only a category 3 hurricane, not the cat 5 that had been predicted. It is not forecast to intensify much before first landfall tomorrow afternoon.

Sorry to disappoint you, gloom and doomers. But this one is not turning into the monster storm that was predicted.

New Orleans will get drenched again, plus there will be a large storm surge. I expect the storm will bounce off the coastline or follow the coastline, due to the shallow angle of the storm track to the coast. It will probably go inland along the eastern Texas coast, between Port Arthur and Galveston.

But if I lived in Port Arthur, I''d be gone already. They still have storm damage from the last hurricane.

[noboundary]

Since I used to live nearby where Gustav is about to hit, I know all about the Gulf Stream. Without it, the Gulf waters would be even warmer still.

Fact: Ocean temperatures, on average, are getting higher - evidence is the melting polar cap.
Fact: Hurricanes are driven by heat
Fact: If more heat is available in the right place, which the article discusses, then you can expect more powerful hurricanes.

For sure, Global warming is not going to help things, only hurt.

[timfitz42]

Ummm ... you are aware of something called the Gulf Stream right? A section of warmer faster moving water that''s been there for a few hundred mellenia and tends to give power to hurricances ... like I said not EVERYTHING is a sign of global warming.

[noboundary]

Hurricanes thrive on heat, so when you add more heat, the hurricanes just keep getting more powerful. So yes, we had hurricanes before global warming, but now they are just able to gather more strength.

About global warming, it is for real - just track how the north polar ice continues to melt away - that wouldn''t be happening unless more heat is added to the system (simple physics!)

[timfitz42]

Don''t know why my posts keep getting removed.

Maybe we could keep the comments on the subject of the headline please? Hurricanes happened before global warming and will happen long after we''re gone, nor are they all signs of the apocalypse.

[raskal_2]

Getting wet yet??? As the old timers used to say, Good blow...

[garbagestopr]

There is no false promise with Christ. There is only truth.

Obviously you''ve been mistreated your whole life, and now you are taking out your anger and aggression on a public message forum expressing the hatred that''s in your heart, specifically towards Bible believing Christians.

You can''t answer the questions. Nuff said.

[garbagestopr]

adt14

What would you know about actual truth and knowledge if you said you don''t have a belief?

If you don''t believe in anything how can you claim to know the Truth?

[garbagestopr]

The Word (Jesus Christ) lives in my heart. I am speaking from my heart.

You are speaking in hatred and intolerance..revealing what''s in your heart.

[garbagestopr]

speak from your own heart bible thumping fool
Posted by adt14

Ok, how long do you plan on mocking Bible believers? How long do you plan on slandering us? How long adt14?


Your belief, by your own admission, is in nothingness.

Fools are the ones who reject God. Psalm 14:1

[garbagestopr]

Proverbs 1:22
"How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?


How long adt14?

[garbagestopr]

god aka male pronoun
aka adolescent human ego grandiosity
aka self righteous nonsense
Posted by adt14

What would you know about the terms "Self righteous" if you don''t believe in the Bible to begin with?

[garbagestopr]

false profits profits profits
Posted by adt14

God isn''t interested in your money. He''s interested in your heart.

[garbagestopr]

I hold no belief aka stuperstition aka placebo
Posted by adt14 at 06:52 AM : Aug 31, 2008

Everybody believes in something. You probably believe in the Big Bang, or something like that.

If you say you have "no belief", you are admitting that you believe in nothing.

So you do believe in something. In your case, that "something", is "nothing".

You believe in nothingness.

[garbagestopr]

bible = baby flatulence

Posted by adt14

You''re one of the mockers the Bible predicted would come in the last days:

Proverbs 1:22
"How long will you simple ones love your simple ways? How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?

2 Peter 3:3
First of all, you must understand that in the last days scoffers will come, scoffing and following their own evil desires.

[garbagestopr]

Not having a soul has its benefits.


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Posted by curse914

Knowing Christ has it''s benefits. Most of all, you know the Truth, and you are redeemed of your sins. Forgiven.

[garbagestopr]

adt14

I have a better idea: You believe in what you want and then respect the rights of others to believe in what they want. You know, that doggon freedom of religion Constitutional right.

[garbagestopr]

rheola-knowing God has never been about "Religion".

That''s why God said not to have any other "gods"(religion) before Him. The first commandment.

"Religion" is manmade. The Lord however is the Truth (John 14:6)

[garbagestopr]

This hurricane could be the worst in history.