Obama's Next Challenge: The White Vote

CBS Evening News: How The Race Factor And "Bradley Effect" Could Affect Obama

(CBS)  Lyndon Johnson was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win a majority of the white vote. Experts say Barack Obama will need more than 40 percent to win the election. And right now, a CBS News poll shows he's getting only 38. Byron Pitts has more about the race factor.

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For an estimated 30,000 fans in Maple Grove, Penn., auto drag racing is king. And for many, Sen. Barack Obama's race will be a factor this fall, reports CBS News national correspondent Byron Pitts.

Pitts asked Sherree Fox, of Middletown, Penn., whether she thinks race will play a role in the election.

"Absolutely," she said. "I do. Just from what other people say."

What kinds of things has she heard people say?

"Well, that he's black and you know, we've never had a black president. They're just against that," she said.

"They don't want him in there, 'cause his name sounds like the other country," said Wayne Stroausbaugh of Hanover, Penn.

Volunteers at Obama's campaign headquarters in Scranton have heard it all before.

"This is a Democratic county, this part of the state. So why isn't Barack Obama an easy sell?" Pitts asked.

"I still think it's because people don't know him that well. That's what I think," one Obama volunteer said.

"He's on TV all the time; he's got commercials here?" Pitts asked.

"Yes, but probably race is an issue for some people still," he said.

Obama got trounced by Hillary Clinton in the Pennsylvania primary, losing three-to-one. With two months left to go before the election, Obama's volunteers are working overtime to make sure race is not the decisive factor in November.

"We need to put the right person in the White House," said an Obama volunteer Mary Magner. "We need to look past that fungus called prejudice."

That won't be easy, says political analyst Larry Sabato.

"Race is - it's one of the touchiest, most sensitive subjects in American culture and life. And it's going to play a role in this election, both to help Obama and hurt Obama," Sabato said.

Obama is the first African-American with a serious chance of winning the presidency, and there is some concern that what happened to Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley could happen to Obama.

In 1982, Los Angeles Mayor Bradley was on the verge of becoming California's first black governor. Late polls showed Bradley holding a double-digit lead over his white opponent. But on Election Day - he lost.

It turned out that many white voters who told pollsters they would back Bradley did not. That election became known as the "Bradley Effect" -- where pollsters find some voters lie to hide their racial prejudice.

Though in recent elections there's been no real evidence of it.

"There is no question, even though racial prejudice has decreased over time, there is still some of it out there, and it will show up at the polls," Sabato said.

It's a dilemma that Sen. Obama acknowledged early on.

"Will there be some folks who probably don't vote for me because I am black? Of course. Yeah, but the question is, can we get a majority of the American people to give us a fair hearing," Obama said.

Obama has some work to do among white working-class voters. According to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll, white voters without a college degree are supporting McCain by 14 percent. Also, among white voters with an income under $50,000, Obama is still edged out by McCain.

At Chic's Diner - a local landmark in Scranton - people there told Pitts that in these tough economic times, the color that will matter most - they said - is green.

"We're working to go to work," said one trucker. "That's all you're doing. To me he is the man for the job right now. We have to change something in this country. It has to be done now. We can't wait. The average workers, we're just getting burned."

In my opinion, if this person is green, yellow, black, it doesn’t matter," another diner said. "It doesn't matter what color you are, just do your job - that's it."

[bratz21-2009]

" It turned out that many white voters who told pollsters they would back Bradley did not. That election became known as the "Bradley Effect" -- where pollsters find some voters lie to hide their racial prejudice. "


This might happened again this November election. Dont ever believe in polls, they are not accurate and it does not represent the whole population of the country.

[goldworldnet]

It''s a free country and any citizen of any color, gender, or political persuasion that is registered to vote can vote for or against anybody for any reason they choose.

[blkpresident]

The "Bradley-effect" is a thing of the past.

[ixoye_02]

If race prevents an american voter to cast his/her vote for someone who can make a positive difference in the average american''s life, then that voter deserves someone like George Bush as their president. I admit that I had a problem with Obama''s race, just as many people in my generation. But I have found myself and other peers finally break from the irrational fears about race and decided that America needs to move beyond race. And vote for the candidate who would restore hope and bring a positive vision for America. McCain, unfortunately, doesn''t get my vote. Even people with experience can have bad judgement and make the wrong decisions. McCain''s voting record as a senator is enough for me to conclude that McCain''s judgement is similar to George Bush''s judgement. And that McCain would be more of the same Bush policies warmed over. Biden hit it on the head when Biden pointed out that McCain was wrong. It seems as though there will be a timetable for withdrawl in Iraq (not proposed by Bush or McCain). And that Bush is now talking with Iraq. Talk about poor leadership and bad judgement. Bush is now having to consider ideas that Bush and McCain rejected adamantly with regard to foreign policy. Now Bush and McCain will have to explain their "flip-flopping" policies.

[engymass2]

Concerns47 - what KKK branch do you belong to ???

[flreason]

Some of you folks talk as if Obama would be operating in vacuum without experienced advisors. Obama has a history of identifying capable, intelligent advisors who will be on his team, and who will tell him what he needs to know rather than what he wants to hear. It is the height of irony that all of the policy positions that Obama advocated, and which his opponents catagorized as evidence of his lack of experience, are now being implemented in part or in their entirety by the Bush Administration. That certainly beats the policy success record that Bush has achieved in the last eight year, and that McCain has assured us he''s going to continue. Experience doesn''t seem to have made them smarter or improved their foreign policy skills...they had to follow where Obama led.

[deacon20081]

Personally as an older "White Guy" I am disgusted with all of the racist slurs and slander on the airwaves. The fact of the matter is I could care less what COLOR the next president is. So long as it is NOT A REPUBLICAN. I constantly read posts that "Obama is a Muslim". That is rediculas and simply propaganda by the Republicans. I am Clergy and I plan on voting my conscience. I am also a Veteran and a Patriot who believes in his Country. McCain has admitted his party has been corrupted ( You think?)
and says it has to stop. Too late John. I can not and would never tell anyone how to vote or why to vote, that is not my place, I will say Be an American and Support your Country. No More Corruption in Washington should be the driving point we all share.
No More Republican dominance and graft, this country has been hijacked by the party of the supposed "Compassionate Conservative - MR I am the Decider"
We can rescue our country only by taking a stand now.

[bec67]

The race card is being played to make people feel guilty about not supporting Obama, however, the real question is total lack of experience. Community organizer and 143 days in the US Senate hardly qualifies him for President. McCain 08---Hillary 12

[credibility2]

To me, experience and qualifications are the main issues. The fact that Obama is half black doesn''t concern me so much as his puny and flimsy political resume and the lack of overall qualifications he brings to the table. He''s intelligent and has potential, but now isn''t the time to elevate someone who lacks credible experience. That his party elevated him given his considerable shortcomings flies in the face of logic and reasonableness. The presidency isn''t part of the pc fallacies, yet the Dems are comfortable with this.

[yungvoter84]

this election will be soley based on race. every person is going to vote for the color they feel comfortable with. when that should not be the case. the vote should be one the facts(you will never know the true facts you only get what they tell you). in essence all elections are a fraud because they lie to get the vote and then they do what they want when they get into office. no one is for the people. they are all for themselves

[yungvoter84]

concers47:
you say you won''t vote for a black person till they get their act together. but did you forget the olympics bomber in ''96 was white, the oklahoma city bomber was white. and most serial killers are also white. you cannot say you will not vote for a black man because of what others do. if that was the case why have you been voting at all. whites comite the same crimes as blacks, they have babies out of wedlock and they also report there babise missing 30 after they have been gone. please think before you speak on one particular color

[tazmjam]

Pennsylvania has been a toss-up state since Lyndon Johnson. Is it pssible that people in Pennsylvania might be concerned over Obama/Biden''''s far liberal policies and not race? Were they bigots when they did not vote for Dukakis, Mondale, Carter (1980), and McGovern? Now, if Maryland went Republican you would have a strory that''''s meaningful and not a smear on Pennsylvanias. Posted by JEROMEG4


I agree. The media has to sensationalize everything, what better way then to accuse the swing states in the Midwest of harboring prejudice against Obama because he is black. I hear the same thing about Ohio. The more likely reason is the different views regions of the country have on the government and what it can and should do. Overall, I think people in the Midwest are a lot more conservative and suspicious of the government then they are on the East and West coast. Tell people in the Midwest the government has a plan to help them, and half of them will tell you Washington couldn%u2019t figure a way out of a paper bag with a hole in it.

[rjs1955]

Markcan72

Let''s see. In how many of those prior elections was there even an option to vote for a black man? There WAS NO CHOICE. This election may reveal more about the inner racial views of Americans that any other in history, because each and every one of us can put our vote where our mouth is. In 1976, there was no viable option to Carter if you were black.... oh yeah, Gerald Ford, another old whit guy....

[markcan72]

For all you socially and politically retarded people who say that is racist that blacks voted 95% Obama should be reminded that African-Americans voted 90% for old, white, men for years think Carter, Clinton, Gore, and Kerry. African-Americans have always voted for old white men. It''s time for white Americans like African-Americans to vote for a black man just as African-Americans have voted for white men all these years.

[rjs1955]

Reedtaz73

As of 2005, the estimated world population of Christians was 33.06%. Muslims accounted for 20.28%. Several sources show a stable percentage of about 33% Christian in worl population for some time now, and Muslims at around 20%.

[rjs1955]

If 90% of whites voted for McCain, the world would scream that America is still a racist place. Yet, if 90% of Blacks vote for Obama, no one will think anything of that. So, is it racist to vote for McCain if you''re white? NO, not necessarily. Is it racist to vote for Obama if you''re black? NO, not necessarily. But is it racist to think it is normal and expected for the vast majority of Blacks to turn out and vote for Obama?...............No, not necessarily, but not a capital "NO"........it might depend on if you''re a white person thinking that or a black person thinking that. The fact is, everyone expects that the black vote is Obama''s. Isn''t that making a race-based assumption? Is it a race-based stereotype? YES, and YES.

What''s my point? ...that lots of racism exists in the Black community that is accepted and acceptable by Whites, which in itself is a kind of racism-inside-out on the part of Whites. Many Whites do not expect better from Blacks...again a type of racism.

[reedtaz73]

Either you get on board with Obama or continue to be sheep heading up a cliff to your death.He is the only reasonable choice...people talk negative about his muslim background when that fact is a positive.In the grand scope of it all, there are more muslims in the world then there are christians. It''s time to stop being closed minded with an arrogant attitude about how the world should be. Imperialism is the cause for the end of every great kingdom.

[pooglywoogly]

This story is a forerunner to all the stories that we will see prior to the election. CBS has predictably decided to frame the election this way: If you''re white and you don''t suport Obama then your racist. No wonder people lie to pollsters. If Obama loses that will be the CBS news headline. CBS is irresponsible for choosing a purely political tactic like this and calling it news. There is a race problem in the United States, but it doesn''t come from white people.

[blkpresident]

Alicerea1,

Remember these words: President-elect Obama
The "Bradley-effect" is a dead issue.

[dante805]

His NEXT challenge? Its his only one; one he hasn''t made an inch on. This Elitist Harvard Lawyer is Pathtic. A wolf in sheeps clothing Dont be fooled Middle America he thinks you are bitter and cling to guns and god