Great Lakes Region Key To McCain's Chances

Democrats Have Traditionally Dominated The Region But Republicans See Opportunity

(AP)  Democratic dominance in presidential elections has been the norm for decades throughout much of the country's union-strong industrial Great Lakes region.

Republican John McCain hopes to upset that history.

The GOP presidential candidate is mounting strong challenges to Democratic rival Barack Obama in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and eyeing Minnesota - four states that have thwarted Republicans in at least four straight elections. The Arizona senator is also fighting to hang on to Ohio, a bellwether that President Bush won twice.

"For all the talk about changing the electoral map, the core of it is still the same - right here," said Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor.

This region has been a central part of every White House race for 30-some years because Democratic presidential candidates have had to win a huge share of its electoral votes to have any hope of assembling the 270 needed to win. Together the five states where McCain sees opportunity have 78 electoral votes; Illinois' 21 votes are considered safe for Obama, its favorite son U.S. senator.

This year McCain views the region as his best, if not his only, chance to keep a Republican in the White House in an election season that strongly favors Democrats after eight years of President Bush. All five states were decided by narrow margins four years ago.

They are home to large numbers of blue-collar whites, whom Obama has struggled to win over; senior citizens, who polls show tilt toward McCain; and Catholics, a swing-voting constituency. These groups comprise the bulk of the right-leaning suburban Democrats who were successfully courted by Ronald Reagan in the 1980s and may be attracted to McCain if he can keep his distance from Bush. In addition, each state has rural conservative voters who could reject Obama's liberal voting record and, perhaps, his race.

"McCain is looking at the nature of the electorate and has a reasonable chance to cherry-pick some voters," said G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa. "These are the kinds of voters who were reluctant to vote for Obama in the primary, and the Republicans think they can make inroads with them."

Obama, a 47-year-old first-term senator, is seeking to become the first black U.S. president. Republicans have worked to tag him an inexperienced elitist trading on his celebrity. Race and class are certainly factors in this contest - and definitely in this region - but the impact won't be measurable until after the election.

Obama has characterized McCain, a 71-year-old Arizonan who has supported Bush in Senate votes 90 percent of the time, as offering another term of the unpopular president's economic and free trade policies to a region whose economy has tanked and that has seen staggering job losses.

McCain has acknowledged the economy isn't his strongest suit. Some other factors also may work against him.

Obama calls neighboring Illinois home, and he is strongly defending four of these states while aggressively going after Ohio and looking to pick off a GOP-held target in this region, Indiana. At this point, McCain's campaign isn't active in that state, a sign that Republicans aren't yet worried.

Obama should post big numbers in urban cores like Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland and Pittsburgh, given his strong support among minorities and younger voters. Obama will probably benefit from union support here. And enthusiasm for his candidacy and a recruitment effort have sharply increased Democratic voter registration.

In Ohio, McCain may find it difficult to repeat Bush's 2004 victory. The state GOP is in shambles after scandals helped Democrats claim the governor's office in 2006.

Michigan, where the auto industry is ailing, is one of McCain's two top targets. Obama didn't compete there during the primary so he needed to build an organization essentially from scratch. Picking Michigan native Mitt Romney as his running mate could help McCain.

Pennsylvania is McCain's other priority. Obama was soundly defeated by Hillary Rodham Clinton in the state's spring primary, though the race boosted Democratic voter registration. McCain could benefit there if he puts former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge on the ticket.

Wisconsin has been closely contested in recent years and gave Democrats narrow victories of only 11,000 votes in 2004 and 5,000 votes in 2000. However, it has been trending more Democratic in the last four years.

Minnesota last voted for a Republican for president in 1972. For now at least, it's the only one of the five states where McCain isn't running TV ads, but that may change if the state is within reach after Labor Day.

McCain will accept the GOP presidential nomination next month at the party's convention in St. Paul, Minn., and his prospects in the state could improve if he picks Gov. Tim Pawlenty as his No. 2.

To win all five states, McCain must offset Obama's strong support in metropolitan centers by running well in perpetual swing-voting areas - places like Minnesota's Anoka County, north of Minneapolis and St. Paul.

The county is home to working-class voters who love to hunt and fish and don't hesitate to back a candidate who feels right to them, regardless of party label. It was the center of wrestler Jesse Ventura's victorious 1998 independent campaign for governor.

Republican Jim Abeler, who has represented the area in the legislature for a decade, says McCain could do well in counties like Anoka by playing up his maverick image.

"The solid Republicans are going to suck it up and vote for McCain. The solid Democrats are going to suck it up and vote for Obama," he said. "But there are a lot of people in the middle. I think there's hay to be made in my county."

Tiffany Ling, 25, is among those who are torn.

"Obama strikes me as a good family man. He seems like he'd be a decent guy. But my values are more along the lines of what John McCain stands for and believes in," Ling said as she sat in a park in Coon Rapids, Minn.

Economic stress weighs on her. Pregnant with her second child, Ling is considering selling her gas-guzzling SUV because high gasoline prices crimp the family's budget as she travels 50 miles roundtrip to the hospital where she is a nurse.

But she doesn't know which candidate has the best plan to revive the economy.

Mirroring the region's troubles, the county's unemployment rate hit its highest mark in four years this summer at 5.3 percent. That trend influences Tod O'Donoghue, 38, who recently lost his job as a floor covering salesman.

Excited about Obama, O'Donoghue describes the Democrat's short Washington record as an asset and praises his emphasis on diplomacy in dealing with global threats.

"There's no way in hell I'm voting for the old establishment," O'Donoghue, said, referring to McCain. "It's just unhealthy for us."

[ragnar30066]

Hillary had it right, Obama would be a disaster for the Great Lakes region. He offers more of the same policies that have caused the area to decline for two generations.

Some of his ads say that he would raise taxes on companies that ship jobs overseas, but other ads make it clear that he would tax those that keep jobs here as well. No matter what, Obama is going to raise taxes so that he can expand government. It is all he knows.

The the only solution for a business is to become a foreign company and avoid the American tax burden. Which is exactly what has been happening for two generations in Ohio, as businesses have moved away from the obstacle courses of taxation at the state, county, city and township level.

We have so many layers of government all of them sucking money out of the system it''s a wonder there is any left for commerce. It is no wonder our leading export is college graduates going to states where there are jobs. And Obama would do more of the same stupid things that put us in this situation.

And Biden''s experience can''t help Obama here. When you plan to do something stupid, you don''t want it done right.

[misha128-2009]

Posted by EddyNewHope some additional details.

Phil with his wife Wendy Gramm (of CFTC fame who left the CFTC to join Enron AKA Enron Wendy) opened the markets to speculation by everyone. Whose grand idea was it to allow manipulation and hoarding of commodities in short supply like energy? Enron Phil pushed and passed legislation to lock in Enron Wendy''s CFTC ruling opening the Enron Loophole. they both now support Exxon John. Since then BP was caught manipulating the propane markets. Enron was caught manipulating the California Electricity market. A bank in the northeast controls the majority of the heating oil supplies in the northeast -- how much heating oil can a bank use?

[misha128-2009]

part 2

Phil was also a leader in supporting financial deregulation (now works for UBS a European bank with operations in the US). UBS is now dealing with allegations of helping wealthy Americans avoid Bush''s reduced taxes by hiding their income in Europe. He was also a considerable force in the Senate for reduced regulation that lead to the shoddy industry practices that ultimately lead to the financial meltdown and government bailouts for his fat cat buddies at Bear Stearns and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae executives have exorbitant incomes compared to US Cabinet Secretaries, yet it appears their companies are to be significantly federally financed -- thanks again to Phil "We''re a nation of whiners" Gramm and his wife.

As for Senator McCain -- he is FOR everything he is AGAINST -- Super-Panderer has taken both sides of this issue. However his most recently Senator McCain is aligned with Phil and Wendy Gramm calling for even greater deregulation for businesses despite their current laundry list of legal transgressions.

[starleo146]

Doctor Phillip Butler is a 1961 graduate of the United States Naval Academy and a former light-attack carrier pilot. In 1965 he was shot down over North Vietnam where he spent eight years as a prisoner of war. He is a highly decorated combat veteran who was awarded two Silver Stars, two Legion of Merits, two Bronze Stars and two Purple Heart medals. After his repatriation in 1973 he earned a Ph.D. in sociology from the University of California at San Diego and became a Navy Organizational Effectiveness consultant. He completed his Navy career in 1981 as a professor of management at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. He is now a peace and justice activist with Veterans for Peace.

[starleo146]

this was written by By Phillip Butler, Military.com. Posted August 21, 2008.

A fellow Vietnam POW of McCain''s warns of the candidate''s "quick and explosive temper" and suggests McCain is exaggerating his imprisonment.

[starleo146]

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Senator John Sidney McCain, III is a remarkable man who has made enormous personal achievements. And he is a man that I am proud to call a fellow POW who "Returned With Honor." That''s our POW motto. But since many of you keep asking what I think of him, I''ve decided to write it out. In short, I think John Sidney McCain, III is a good man, but not someone I will vote for in the upcoming election to be our President of the United States.

[starleo146]

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It is also disappointing to see him take on and support Bush''s war in Iraq, even stating we might be there for another 100 years. For me John represents the entrenched and bankrupt policies of Washington-as-usual. The past 7 years have proven to be disastrous for our country. And I believe John''s views on war, foreign policy, economics, environment, health care, education, national infrastructure and other important areas are much the same as those of the Bush administration.

I''m disappointed to see John represent himself politically in ways that are not accurate. He is not a moderate Republican. On some issues he is a maverick. But his voting record is far to the right. I fear for his nominations to our Supreme Court, and the consequent continuing loss of individual freedoms, especially regarding moral and religious issues. John is not a religious person, but he has taken every opportunity to ally himself with some really obnoxious and crazy fundamentalist ministers lately. I was also disappointed to see him cozy up to Bush because I know he hates that man. He disingenuously and famously put his arm around the guy, even after Bush had intensely disrespected him with lies and slander. So on these and many other instances, I don''t see that John is the "straight talk express" he markets himself to be.

[starleo146]

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I furthermore believe that having been a POW is no special qualification for being President of the United States. The two jobs are not the same, and POW experience is not, in my opinion, something I would look for in a presidential candidate.

Most of us who survived that experience are now in our late 60''s and 70''s. Sadly, we have died and are dying off at a greater rate than our non-POW contemporaries. We experienced injuries and malnutrition that are coming home to roost. So I believe John''s age (73) and survival expectation are not good for being elected to serve as our President for 4 or more years.

I can verify that John has an infamous reputation for being a hot head. He has a quick and explosive temper that many have experienced first hand. Folks, quite honestly that is not the finger I want next to that red button.

[starleo146]

pager 5
4) John was awarded a Silver Star and Purple Heart for heroism and wounds in combat. This heroism has been played up in the press and in his various political campaigns. But it should be known that there were approximately 600 military POW''s in Vietnam. Among all of us, decorations awarded have recently been totaled to the following: Medals of Honor -- 8, Service Crosses -- 42, Silver Stars -- 590, Bronze Stars -- 958 and Purple Hearts -- 1,249. John certainly performed courageously and well. But it must be remembered that he was one hero among many -- not uniquely so as his campaigns would have people believe.

John McCain served his time as a POW with great courage, loyalty and tenacity. More that 600 of us did the same. After our repatriation a census showed that 95% of us had been tortured at least once. The Vietnamese were quite democratic about it. There were many heroes in North Vietnam. I saw heroism every day there. And we motivated each other to endure and succeed far beyond what any of us thought we had in ourselves. Succeeding as a POW is a group sport, not an individual one. We all supported and encouraged each other to survive and succeed. John knows that. He was not an individual POW hero. He was a POW who surmounted the odds with the help of many comrades, as all of us did.

[starleo146]

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2) John was badly injured when he was shot down. Both arms were broken and he had other wounds from his ejection. Unfortunately this was often the case -- new POW''s arriving with broken bones and serious combat injuries. Many died from their wounds. Medical care was non-existent to rudimentary. Relief from pain was almost never given and often the wounds were used as an available way to torture the POW. Because John''s father was the Naval Commander in the Pacific theater, he was exploited with TV interviews while wounded. These film clips have now been widely seen. But it must be known that many POW''s suffered similarly, not just John. And many were similarly exploited for political propaganda.

3) John was offered, and refused, "early release." Many of us were given this offer. It meant speaking out against your country and lying about your treatment to the press. You had to "admit" that the U.S. was criminal and that our treatment was "lenient and humane." So I, like numerous others, refused the offer. This was obviously something none of us could accept. Besides, we were bound by our service regulations, Geneva Conventions and loyalties to refuse early release until all the POW''s were released, with the sick and wounded going first.