Recession In Rural Areas May Help Obama
Economic Woes For Farmers Could Make Them Rethink Republican Ties
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Auctioneer Mark Glick, at center leaning against hay, auctions off a truck load of local hay at Belleville Farmers Market & Livestock in Belleville , Pa., Wednesday, April 30, 2008. (AP)
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But tough economic times here in Mifflin County and in rural areas all around the country have created possible openings for Democrat Barack Obama.
President Bush won nearly 70 percent of the county's vote in both 2000 and 2004, but the standard of living here has declined steadily during his administration.
The farm equipment factory that employed 500 workers here is closing. So is the milk plant. Farmers are facing skyrocketing feed and fertilizer costs, and gas prices are squeezing household budgets of those who now have to drive elsewhere for work.
Mifflin is one of nearly 150 rural counties where the median household income has dropped by more than 10 percent since 1999, more than three times the national decline, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.
That could make a difference in traditionally Republican rural areas come November. In Ohio in 2004, for example, John Kerry might have won the state and the presidency had he won just 45 percent of the rural vote. As it was, Mr. Bush carried Ohio's rural voters by an almost 2-to-1 margin, according to exit polls.
Rural voters accounted for more than 10 percent of the total vote in all but three of 12 closely contested battleground states in 2004, and more than 20 percent in four of them - Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin - according to exit polls. In all but two of the states, Mr. Bush won the small-town vote overwhelmingly.
Nationally, Bush won almost 60 percent of the rural vote, but Republican John McCain doesn't appear to be doing as well. In an AP-Yahoo News Poll in June, rural voters favored McCain over Obama 40 percent to 34 percent. About 34 percent of rural voters said McCain "shares my values," compared to 27 percent who said Obama did.
Recognizing an opportunity, Obama has opened more offices in rural areas than any other Democratic presidential candidate in years, pushing a message focused on job creation. Neighborhood campaign teams have been going door to door talking about Obama and his economic policies. In Ohio, his campaign recently announced a "Barns for Obama" effort, in which farmers are encouraged to paint their barn with Obama's logo.
Economy is hardly the only issue, here as elsewhere.
Religion and race are still powerful forces in rural America, and whether Obama can gain ground in traditional rural safe havens for Republicans could hinge on whether voters focus more on economic issues or cultural values when they go to the polls. Likability is also likely to be a strong factor.
Republican Barbara Dettloff, 72, a retired bartender from Racine, Ohio, an Appalachian river town with about 750 people, voted for Bush in 2004 and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in this year's Republican primary. She's voting for Obama in November because "I think he's nice and I think he's sincere in what he says."
But, she added, "I'm probably the only person in this town that does."
Indeed, many of her friends have told her they're either not voting for Obama or are staying home. "They just won't vote for him because he's black," Dettloff said.
Some other rural voters like Carol Fuller, 45, of Lewistown, blame the Republican Party for their economic troubles but aren't ready to switch to a Democrat like Obama.
At the Belleville auction house on a recent day, Fuller described the future as "bleak." In part because of gas prices, she said she and her husband are living month to month on the farm where they raise poultry and cattle.
She accused the Republican Party of price gouging at the pump, mismanaging the Iraq war and failing to address health care. She said she would have voted for Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton because she thought a woman could clean up Washington, but, as for Obama, "I just don't like him." She plans to vote for McCain.
Another farmer, Robert Thompson, 58, a Democrat and retired state worker from Millheim who raises cattle and hogs, said he still hasn't gotten over Obama's comments at a private San Francisco fundraiser that small-town voters in Pennsylvania are bitter and "cling to guns or religion." He said he's considering not voting for president because he doesn't like McCain either.
If many rural voters follow the route Thompson is considering, it could hurt McCain in critical swing states, said Terry Madonna, a pollster and professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster.
"McCain will have problems getting a high turnout among those voters unless he finds some way to identify with them, some way to make them think that A, he's not connected to Bush and B, his economic plan is superior to Obama's," Madonna said.
He also needs to turn the conversation away from the economy, Madonna said, but "it's tougher to do that when times are bad."
Paul Lindsay, a McCain spokesman, said long-standing relationships Republicans have established in rural areas will pay off for McCain.
"John McCain continues to hear the concerns of rural families. ... That's why he has made every effort to engage these voters on his plans to create jobs and provide relief for working families," Lindsay said.
Says Dan Leistikow, an Obama spokesman: "We're getting a great response in rural communities that have been ignored by Washington and left behind in the Bush economy."
The AP analysis of median household income was based on 2005 estimates, the latest available from the Census Bureau. In some of the rural counties heavily dependent on farming, income may well have rebounded since then as rising soybean and corn prices have helped offset feed and fertilizer costs.
And not all rural counties are hurting. The median household income improved during the Bush administration in many rural counties near metropolitan areas.
But for counties like Mifflin, the recent economic decline is just a continuation of a trend that's lasted decades. Some of the county's economic woes date to 1972 when rains from Hurricane Agnes flooded parts of the area, including a profitable rayon fiber plant that was a major employer.
Tara Davidson, 36, a single mother and hair dresser from nearby Unionville, said she worries about what opportunities will be available for her 15-year-old son, who is already working to help out with their expenses. But she's not sure she'll even vote in November.
"I'm considering it, but I don't want any of them," Davidson said. "What if they get in there and make it worse?"
© MMVIII The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.




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See all 286 CommentsWhat do you know, karma works.
By Thomas Frank, The New Statesman. Posted August 18, 2008.
Conservatives don''t want to debate, they want to destroy their opposition.
Also in Democracy and Elections
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The most cherished dream of conservative Washington is that liberalism can somehow be defeated, finally and irreversibly, in the way that armies are beaten and pests are exterminated. Electoral victories by Republicans are just part of the story. The larger vision is of a future in which liberalism is physically barred from the control room -- of an "end of history" in which taxes and onerous regulation will never be allowed to threaten the fortunes private individuals make for themselves. This is the longing behind the former White House aide Karl Rove''s talk of "permanent majority" and, 20 years previously, disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff''s declaration to the Republican convention that it''s "the job of all revolutions to make permanent their gains
The end was capturing the state, and using it to destroy liberalism as a practical alternative. The pattern was set by Margaret Thatcher, who used state power of the heaviest-handed sort to implant permanently the anti-state ideology.
Grover Norquist, one of the most influential conservatives in Washington and the "field marshal of the Bush plan," according to the Nation magazine, has been most blunt about using the power of the state "to crush the structures of the left." He has outlined the plan countless times in countless venues: the liberal movement is supported by a number of "pillars," each of which can be toppled by conservatives when in power. Among Norquist''s suggestions has been the undermining of defense lawyers -- who in the US give millions of dollars to liberal causes -- with measures "potentially costing [them] billions of dollars of lost income." Conservatives could also "crush labour unions as a political entity" by forcing unions to get annual written approval from every member before spending union funds on political activities. His coup de grace is that the Democratic Party in its entirety would become "a dead man walking" with the privatization of social security.
I don''t believe Bush and Rove will be getting their lasting Republican majority any time soon. Between the changing demographics and younger generation bearing the brunt of poor fiscal policy, the Republican party most likely peaked in 2004 and is heading into steady decline.
The longing for permanent victory over liberalism is not unique to the west. In country after country, business elites have come up with ingenious ways to limit the public''s political choices. One of the most effective of these has been massive public debt. Naomi Klein has pointed out, in case after case, that the burden of debt has forced democratic countries to accept a laissez-faire system that they find deeply distasteful. Regardless of who borrowed the money, these debts must be repaid -- and repaying them, in turn, means that a nation must agree to restructure its economy the way bankers bid: by deregulating, privatizing and cutting spending.
While many are quick to predict increased Democrat majorities in both Houses of Congress, it%u2019s clear that the American people are rejecting the so-called leadership of elected Democrats.
And they got what they deserved.
Posted by starleo14672
Or, an angry mob could hang those bankers from telephone poles. This scenario or similar ones have been replayed throughout history.
While many are quick to predict increased Democrat majorities in both Houses of Congress, it%u2019s clear that the American people are rejecting the so-called leadership of elected Democrats.
Posted by obama8years
Faith based reality????????
George W Bush proceeded to plunge the budget into deficit again. Indeed, after seeing how the Reagan deficit had forced Clinton''s hand, it would have been foolish for a conservative not to spend his way back into the hole as rapidly as possible. "It''s perfectly fine for them to waste money," says Robert Reich, a former labour secretary to Bill Clinton, summarizing the conservative viewpoint. "If the public thinks government is wasteful, that''s fine. That reduces public faith in government, which is precisely what the Republicans want."
Come on dems run on who you really are not who you want the masses to believe you are.
Conservatism, on the other hand, speaks not of compromise, but of removing its adversaries from the field altogether. While no one dreams of sawing off those branches of the state that protect conservatism''s constituents -- the military, the police, legal privileges granted to corporations -- conservatives openly fantasize about doing away with the bits of "big government" that serve liberal ends. While de-funding the left is the north star of the conservative project, there is no comparable campaign to "de-fund the right"; indeed, it would be difficult to imagine one.
In this sense, conservative Washington is a botch that keeps on working, constructing an imbalance that will tilt our politics rightward for years, a plutocracy that will stand, regardless of who wins the next few elections. And as American inequality widens, the clout of money will only grow more powerful.
Canada has mobile refineries that could be set up on an abandoned U.S. military base. Think it will happen?
No new nuclear. New opposition to solar. No Hydro. And Ted Kennedy NIMBY restrictions on ALL new wind projects.
As to Iraq. All the Democrats have to do is not have a funding bill. No bill, can%u2019t be vetoed. Easy.
What about Social Security? Thwarted OUR proposal and replaced it with what? NOTHING.
What about all those judge appointments you refuse to let come to the floor?
When the agenda on the floor is controlled by an obstinate and cynical group like the current leadership, the opposition party has few options available.
Plutocracy
The Democrats who have taken their place are an improvement, certainly, but for the party''s more entrepreneurial leaders electoral success in 2006 was merely an opportunity to accelerate their own courtship of Washington''s lobbyists, think-tanks and pressure groups staked out on K Street. Democratic leaders have proved themselves the Republicans'' equals in circumvention of campaign finance laws.
He''s right, of course; maybe even righter than he realized. It would be nice if electing Democrats was all that was required to resuscitate the America that the right flattened, but it will take far more than that. A century ago, an epidemic of public theft persisted, despite a long string of reformers in the White House, Republicans and Democrats, each promising to clean the place up. Nothing worked, and for this simple reason: democracy cannot work when wealth is distributed as lopsidedly as theirs was-and as ours is. The inevitable consequence of plutocracy, then and now, is bought government.
But, but, Republicans held Congress and the presidency for 6 years and none of your so called pressing issues were acted on. Nope, it was six years of non binding resolutions declaring marriage should be between a man and a woman and hollow declarations of supporting the troops.
Re-Bush regurgitates again.
Pathetic.
My friend.
Maverick, where have you gone?
Were you ever really here?
My friend?
He''s not our friend.
My friends.
Posted by GOP_forever at 10:21 AM : Aug 18, 2008
Does your preacher wrap snakes around your neck and then tell you have faith they won''t hurt you.
Posted by broadwayphi
How could the middle class possibly lose with McCain''s economic dream team? Lets see, there is Carly (I wrecked HP) Fiorina and Phil (you''re all a bunch of whiners) Gramm. Yep, I see nothing but good times ahead.
Well, Mike, speaking as a hick from the sticks, my guns and religion seem perfectly safe with Obama at the helm.
Perhaps I can at least afford the ammo without the supply-siders picking my pockets to hand it over to the wealthy city-dwellers. eh?
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Posted by mike071067 at 10:25 AM : Aug 18, 2008
Nice, solid, conservative sentiment, Mike.
Good one!
My friend.
Yeah!
QAnd Carly likes to spy on her employees.
We''re safe! Safe! Safe!
Thank God and the GOP!
We''re SAFE!!!!!!
Phil Gramm is in charge of my money and Carly Fiorina is looking out for my best interests.
By God, I feel SAFE.
I can''t be trusted with my own privacy.
I might start whining again, about food, rent, and lack of ammo for that gun I cling to.
By God, I''m voting for McCain.
What was I thinking?
Oops!
I was THINKING again.
Stop me.
My friend...
By God, he''s a war hero!
Screw that pay raise.
Screw that union.
Screw the freakin spotted owls.
I want a freakin war hero for president, no matter how decompensated.
McCain for president!
Don''t THINK!
VOTE!
MY FRIENDS!
Why, it''s G.O. Pee.
Trickling down again.
Thanks, John.
My friend.
I don''''t believe Bush and Rove will be getting their lasting Republican majority any time soon. Between the changing demographics and younger generation bearing the brunt of poor fiscal policy, the Republican party most likely peaked in 2004 and is heading into steady decline.
Posted by omega39 at 10:10 AM : Aug 18, 2008
Thanks Omega39 this article," Plot Against Liberal America", was written by Thomas Frank ,I put it up here for discussion only, and your thoughts are in line with mine as you stated here, it is a interesting piece and the manipulation is unbelievable THANKS FOR THE COMMENT.
By your reasoning *** Lugar & Tom Coburn are closet Che Guevaras who should be booted out of the GOP. Chuck Hagel, Jim Leach, General Jim Jones, and Colin Powell should also take a hike.
They just might.
Other than McCain-Feingold which McCain ignores and Joe Lieberman who finishes his sentences ala Nancy Reagan, what reaching has John done?
Posted by mike071067 at 10:25 AM : Aug 18, 2008
+ report a
typical republipig so set in his way you cannot open his mind with a can opener, you are the one that needs to shut up, you, and you stupid talk this is a discussion forum, and if you don''t like it here, there are plenty of MCBush junk on here go on there.
Posted by mike071067 at 10:25 AM : Aug 18, 2008
+ report a
An intellectual zombie; dead on message for the GOP!
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Posted by ConDumbism at 10:45 AM : Aug 18, 2008
Which will lose their tax exempt status if it is proven!
Safe and warm.
And wet.
Not to worry. Just long gone John and his G.O. Pee.
Trickling down. Again.
My friend.
Posted by aldon61
That''s how it should be but I recall lots of Evangelical churches pushing Bush in 2004 and none lost their tax exempt status. The only case I recall of a church being threatened was here in California when the pastor spoke out against the Iraq war. It dismays me to see Obama want to continue breaking down the walls of separation by continuing to pour US tax dollars directly into places of worship.
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