BELLEVILLE, Pa., Aug. 18, 2008
Recession In Rural Areas May Help Obama
Economic Woes For Farmers Could Make Them Rethink Republican Ties
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Auctioneer Mark Glick, at center leaning against hay, auctions off a truck load of local hay at Belleville Farmers Market & Livestock in Belleville , Pa., Wednesday, April 30, 2008. (AP)
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But tough economic times here in Mifflin County and in rural areas all around the country have created possible openings for Democrat Barack Obama.
President Bush won nearly 70 percent of the county's vote in both 2000 and 2004, but the standard of living here has declined steadily during his administration.
The farm equipment factory that employed 500 workers here is closing. So is the milk plant. Farmers are facing skyrocketing feed and fertilizer costs, and gas prices are squeezing household budgets of those who now have to drive elsewhere for work.
Mifflin is one of nearly 150 rural counties where the median household income has dropped by more than 10 percent since 1999, more than three times the national decline, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.
That could make a difference in traditionally Republican rural areas come November. In Ohio in 2004, for example, John Kerry might have won the state and the presidency had he won just 45 percent of the rural vote. As it was, Mr. Bush carried Ohio's rural voters by an almost 2-to-1 margin, according to exit polls.
Rural voters accounted for more than 10 percent of the total vote in all but three of 12 closely contested battleground states in 2004, and more than 20 percent in four of them - Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin - according to exit polls. In all but two of the states, Mr. Bush won the small-town vote overwhelmingly.
Nationally, Bush won almost 60 percent of the rural vote, but Republican John McCain doesn't appear to be doing as well. In an AP-Yahoo News Poll in June, rural voters favored McCain over Obama 40 percent to 34 percent. About 34 percent of rural voters said McCain "shares my values," compared to 27 percent who said Obama did.
Recognizing an opportunity, Obama has opened more offices in rural areas than any other Democratic presidential candidate in years, pushing a message focused on job creation. Neighborhood campaign teams have been going door to door talking about Obama and his economic policies. In Ohio, his campaign recently announced a "Barns for Obama" effort, in which farmers are encouraged to paint their barn with Obama's logo.
Economy is hardly the only issue, here as elsewhere.
Religion and race are still powerful forces in rural America, and whether Obama can gain ground in traditional rural safe havens for Republicans could hinge on whether voters focus more on economic issues or cultural values when they go to the polls. Likability is also likely to be a strong factor.
Republican Barbara Dettloff, 72, a retired bartender from Racine, Ohio, an Appalachian river town with about 750 people, voted for Bush in 2004 and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in this year's Republican primary. She's voting for Obama in November because "I think he's nice and I think he's sincere in what he says."
But, she added, "I'm probably the only person in this town that does."
Indeed, many of her friends have told her they're either not voting for Obama or are staying home. "They just won't vote for him because he's black," Dettloff said.
Some other rural voters like Carol Fuller, 45, of Lewistown, blame the Republican Party for their economic troubles but aren't ready to switch to a Democrat like Obama.
At the Belleville auction house on a recent day, Fuller described the future as "bleak." In part because of gas prices, she said she and her husband are living month to month on the farm where they raise poultry and cattle.
She accused the Republican Party of price gouging at the pump, mismanaging the Iraq war and failing to address health care. She said she would have voted for Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton because she thought a woman could clean up Washington, but, as for Obama, "I just don't like him." She plans to vote for McCain.
Another farmer, Robert Thompson, 58, a Democrat and retired state worker from Millheim who raises cattle and hogs, said he still hasn't gotten over Obama's comments at a private San Francisco fundraiser that small-town voters in Pennsylvania are bitter and "cling to guns or religion." He said he's considering not voting for president because he doesn't like McCain either.
If many rural voters follow the route Thompson is considering, it could hurt McCain in critical swing states, said Terry Madonna, a pollster and professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster.
"McCain will have problems getting a high turnout among those voters unless he finds some way to identify with them, some way to make them think that A, he's not connected to Bush and B, his economic plan is superior to Obama's," Madonna said.
He also needs to turn the conversation away from the economy, Madonna said, but "it's tougher to do that when times are bad."
Paul Lindsay, a McCain spokesman, said long-standing relationships Republicans have established in rural areas will pay off for McCain.
"John McCain continues to hear the concerns of rural families. ... That's why he has made every effort to engage these voters on his plans to create jobs and provide relief for working families," Lindsay said.
Says Dan Leistikow, an Obama spokesman: "We're getting a great response in rural communities that have been ignored by Washington and left behind in the Bush economy."
The AP analysis of median household income was based on 2005 estimates, the latest available from the Census Bureau. In some of the rural counties heavily dependent on farming, income may well have rebounded since then as rising soybean and corn prices have helped offset feed and fertilizer costs.
And not all rural counties are hurting. The median household income improved during the Bush administration in many rural counties near metropolitan areas.
But for counties like Mifflin, the recent economic decline is just a continuation of a trend that's lasted decades. Some of the county's economic woes date to 1972 when rains from Hurricane Agnes flooded parts of the area, including a profitable rayon fiber plant that was a major employer.
Tara Davidson, 36, a single mother and hair dresser from nearby Unionville, said she worries about what opportunities will be available for her 15-year-old son, who is already working to help out with their expenses. But she's not sure she'll even vote in November.
"I'm considering it, but I don't want any of them," Davidson said. "What if they get in there and make it worse?"
© MMVIII The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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See all 286 CommentsPosted by WellHell3 at 07:15 PM : Aug 18, 2008
Couldn''''t be me I''''m not a republican toe tapper like you.
Posted by rharrin1 at 02:43 AM : Aug 19, 2008
WellHell3 might be a lot of things, but a toe-tapper is not one one them.
She should be the postergal for the Repug party of TODAY. Cheers!
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Really?
New bumber sticker:
Democrats - making the rich pay your fair share
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Posted by Xlib at 07:30 AM : Aug 19, 2008
Strange isn''t it, how the elite can make such a big deal out of a weed.
OK by change you mean??
%u201COh by change I mean ah ah ah ah ah ah aah ha ha ah ah ah ah ah aha ah ah ah aah aha ah aah aha ah ah ah aha ah ah change yes ah aha ha aha aha ah aha ah ah ah ah ah aha ahah ah ah ah aah ah aha ha ah ah ah ah aa ah ah ah a aha a aa aha aha a ah aa ha a a ha ha ah
aah aha ah ah ah aha ah ah change yes ah aha ha aha aha ah aha ah ah ah ah ah aha ahah ah ah ah aah ah aha ha ah ah ah ah aa ah ah ah a aha a aa aha aha a ah aa ha a a ha ha ah
Thank you %u201C
Maybe it%u2019s the drugs?????
Given all that, why would anyone expect them to vote for their own best interests?
The rural vote will largely go to McCain, and it will have nothing to do with either his or Obama''s policies.
Idiot!
Anyone remember the elitist plant that the messiah was talking about when he tried to relate to a bunch of farmers??? All I remember are the empty stares when he lamented on the price of this product. Gotta look it up, it was priceless.
Another issue is that rural America has not forgotten the "angry holding onto guns and religion".
Keep pushing cbs, keep pushing.
Economic Woes For Farmers Could Make Them Rethink Republican Ties
- All what Repukons did over farmers was to spit, ***... Thanks Repukons for allowing farmers to go bankrupt, auctioned and foreclosed!
I crave you too.
I don''''t think ubrew12 understands that everyone has gone to bed and this is "our" space now.
Posted by erasmus81 at 10:49 PM : Aug 18, 2008
That''s OK, it''s time to leave anyways.
See you in the truck.
Posted by erasmus81 at 10:47 PM : Aug 18, 2008
Tengo ansia de ti
I don''t think ubrew12 understands that everyone has gone to bed and this is "our" space now.
And this in a country that touts itself as a ''democracy''. I guess the legacy of voting Republican (i.e. cut taxes on the rich and they''ll invest in China... thanks!), will finally filter down to even the American rural folks. That''s a hole the Republican Party will have to plug someday, in their neverending quest to convince Americans that they actually represent their interests, rather than the interests of the worlds Richest 10% (yeah, I meant the WORLDS).
No. Lucky ME.
Posted by erasmus81 at 10:14 PM : Aug 18, 2008
Let the world stop turning,
Let the sun stop burning,
Let them tell me love''s not worth going through.
If it all falls apart,
I will know deep in my heart,
The only dream that mattered had come true.
...In this life I was loved by you.
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See all 286 Comments