Coming Soon: A Post-American World
With The Rise Of China And Other Economies, The "Golden Age" Of American Influence May Be Coming To An End
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Focus On China
Explore the history, people and economy of China, the world’s most populous nation.
Consider the Olympic Games a giant exclamation point … a fanfare announcing a message from the Chinese.
They're putting the world on notice, that they are players playing to win, and not just Olympic gold. They want you to know that China is a power to be reckoned with, and proud of it, that it's bearing down on the United States … fast.
"The implications are that China will be the commercial leader of the world," Albert Keidel, an expert on China's economy, told Teichner. "It will also deserve and demand leadership in global institutions."
Keidel is the author of a startling new study for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, "China's Economic Rise: Fact And Fiction."
"We can model the economy and show that by 2035, it will be as big, if not bigger than the United States' economy will be at that time, and by the middle of the century it will be twice the size of the U.S. economy at that time," Keidel said.
"That's staggering," Teichner said.
"That's conservative," Keidel said.
In cased you missed that - within the next 50 years China's economy will double the size of the United States' economy.
So where will that leave the United States? Are we slipping? Are we reaching some inevitable tipping point that will change the world as we know it? Is the golden age of America coming to an end?
Fareed Zakaria, editor of Newsweek International, said, "What's happening right now is, the world is moving beyond America. The future is, in many ways, being shaped in distant places by foreign people."
Zakaria is author of "The Post-American World," which is a bestseller.
"That's a big shift from a world in which America was at the center economically, financially, culturally, militarily, politically, to a world in which there are more centers and many forces, from India to China to Brazil to South Africa that have to be taken into account," Zakaria said.
The meltdown in the U.S. economy at the moment isn't helping: The price of gas, the mortgage crisis, the weak dollar, the cost (both monetary and political) of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But the shift, according to Zakaria, is more fundamental.
"This is not happening because America is failing or declining," Zakaria said. "It's happening because the rest are rising, and it's happening because the natives have gotten good at capitalism."
And it's happening right under our noses. America's beverage, Budweiser beer, is now owned by Belgians.
The government of Abu Dhabi last month bought a 90% stake in New York City's iconic Chrysler Building.
And isn't the United States supposed to be the place with the biggest and best of everything?
The tallest building in the world isn't in New York or Chicago anymore. It's in Taipei.
The Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, once the world's largest, isn't even in the top ten now. The biggest one's in - surprise, surprise - China.
Alan Wolff, an international trade lawyer and former U.S. trade negotiator who specializes in china, said we're not used to foreign competition.
Coming out of World War II, we had a lot of breathing space; the rest of the world's economies were devastated, "but they're catching up," Wolff said.
"Worldwide, 179 countries are growing faster than we are. As our manufacturing jobs have moved offshore, the United States has counted on innovation to keep its edge, but how much longer will that be possible?"
Take the iPhone. The idea, the genius, was American. But the phones themselves are made in China, where the government is determined that the next generation of geniuses will be Chinese.
"Actually, that's a stated national policy," Wolff said. "They have a medium- and long-term science and technology policy, 2006-2020, and in that policy one of the statements, one of the parts is to establish global brands, with indigenous technology, with Chinese technology behind those brands."
Think Japanese cars. When they arrived here in a big way in the 1970s, Detroit didn't see what was coming. Today Toyota, not GM, is the number one-selling car company in the U.S. And find an American community that wouldn't like a Toyota plant putting people to work.
China wants to be next.
Michael Jemal is president and CEO of Haier America, told Teicher that innovation and having its own patents is the "life blood" for Haier. "Haier applies for two patents every single day, every day of the year. In fact, it's more than that."
Never heard of Haier America? Just wait. Right now, Chinese-owned Haier is trying to buy GE's appliance division
When it entered the U.S. market nine years ago, the company sold three products. Now it sells 3,000. You name it, Haier makes it, everything from little dorm refrigerators to air conditioners, washing machines to flat screen TVs.
"Haier is the number one brand in China," Jemal said. "In asia, we're in the top ten. The objective here in the U.S. is also to build a market share, to be in the top three in the U.S."
Haier is a pioneer, the first big Chinese manufacturer to build a plant in the United States, a $40 million dollar refrigerator factory outside Camden, South Carolina.
There the Chinese flag hangs alongside the Stars and Stripes.
"This is an American plant," said Joe Sexton, president of Haier America Refrigerators.
"It's run by Americans, and it is staffed by Americans. It is owned by the Chinese."
They employ 125 hourly employees, and 30 salaried employees at Camden. Half these people used to work in the textile industry. They lost their old jobs to lower-paid workers in Asia. In other words, this is globalization in reverse.
South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford said, "We've been, I mean, really whacked in textile job loss. We lost about 95,000 direct textile jobs in that process."
Sanford said that thanks to foreign investment, the state has made up those losses and then some. The 600-plus foreign companies operating in South Carolina account for 1 out of 5 manufacturing jobs. They employ nearly two hundred thousand workers.
"Capital goes to where it's loved, and we try to be very inviting on that front, and not just in terms of tax policy and regulatory policy and other things, but also in terms of direct relationship," Sanford said.
"That's happening at the local level in the United States," Wolff said, "but the federal government is oblivious to it."
Wolff said the president and Congress must face the new reality of global competition.
"We need to change our tax policies, change our immigration policy. We made the U.S. a magnet, an attractive place for the best and the brightest in the world, and we frustrate that by saying, 'You get a Ph.D. here and that doesn't matter. Right now, we're throwing you out.' That's very self-destructive behavior."
"We save too little, we consume too much, we borrow too much from the rest of the world, we use energy in a profligate and wasteful fashion," said Zakaria. He says the U.S. must change its ways, and soon, if we want to hang on to the wealth and influence we have.
"I think that our window for policy change is very short," he said. "I think if we don't, in the next few years, four, five years, make the necessary adjustments, what you'll see is something that looks a little like the trajectory of the British empire in the 20th century. It's not that Britain collapsed, it's that it just slowly faded away in significance, in power and wealth."
Halfway through the Olympics, the enormity of China's ambition is a wonder for all to see - and for Americans, a sobering wake-up call.
"At one level a post-American world is a sign of American failure, and at another it's a sign of glorious success," said Zakaria. "Why is this happening? Because countries around the world are doing what we've been telling them to do for the last 60 years: open yourself up to capitalism, to free trade, to technology."
But Zakaria worries that one day historians will write about how the United States globalized the world, but forgot to globalize itself.
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See all 323 CommentsMost of our downfall is caused by greed. We allowed the rich and powerful to add to their fortunes while we were lulled by lots of cheap goods. It won''t be long before we can''t afford those cheap goods and will suddenly realize that we are not where we thought we were. Add to that that we were tricked into voting for a man that was not intelligent enough to be President not once but twice. Eight years of poor leadership has just about done us in. Looking at the begining of this campaign, I am wondering if we will let the same thing happen again.
I grew up being urged to clean my plate while being told that I was to remember the starving kids in China. What a difference fifty years make.
What the last part of this sentence should say is, "but forgot to protect itself." From what you may ask? Cheap labor and the absence of environmental and labor laws. This story makes it seem as though foreign companies employing US workers to assemble their goods is a good thing. It is not! The parts that make up those goods are not made in the US. Those parts are merely shipped here to be assembled. They are manufactured in China and other third world nations. We use to actually make the parts in the US, assembled them in the US, bought them in the US, and the money went to US owners. So the money stayed in our country. This story will have you believe that globalization is a good thing and that we just need to embrace it. Quite the contrary. It is globalization that has destroyed us. Shame on CBS for running this story from such an obviously biased perspective. This story is obvious propaganda for the advancement of globalization.
Joe
from: Fort Lauderdale
It''s amazing that our leaders have sold us out by pushing for free trade above fair trade. And they have done so in a relatively short amount of time. Embracing Communism for the sake of profits.
The snowball is rolling down the hill now.
It''s time the USA closes it''s doors, take the plaque off the Statue of Liberty unless you come here legal, educated and self-sufficient.
Let the new economic superpowers (China and India) police the world. Maybe then we can finally pay off our debts and take care of long neglected domestic issues.
America will achieve whatever its objectives are.
If America does not have a dramatic change in the way those elected to lead us choose to do business we will see more of the same.
I miss Zakaria on PBS but wish him well in his new position. I keep wondering if our elected leaders watched his program and Bill Moyer. If so I wonder if they should have gone to a different school or if they are just bought and paid for to do what they are doing.
We are just now beginning to learn how the Democratic Congress, being elected to end an illegal war, is still happily funding it and now the Democratic candidate for President wants to move the war to another country.
Somehow these leaders who need millions a month to survive just don''t see the same world as I do - or maybe they do and I just don''t seem to need millions every month to get the power to fight wars around the world rather than protecting our own country.
"This is not happening because America is failing or declining," Zakaria said. "It''s happening because the rest are rising, and it''s happening because the natives have gotten good at capitalism."
This guy does not know what the hell he is talking about. America is falling like a rock booger off Mt. Rushmore.
Thanks Mr. Politician for selling us down the river.
Posted by radiob
It''s not like they didn''t have a compliant press to hide much of this. Even to this day the press squawks about full employment and a 5% unemployment rate.
China continues to ignore environmental responsibility. This will in effect poison them from the inside out.
What the United States used to have was preeminence in science, technology, and manufacturing, due to he hard work and creativity of our people
But the Bushes and the Clintons have arranged to give that preeminence away to the Chinese. They arranged for hundreds of thousands of Chinese to come here on H1B visas and work in our top academic and industrial laboratories. Senator Dianne Feinstein and her billionaire husband Blum greased the skids for these foreign agents to come here, which also pleased some industrial bigwigs as it allowed them to stop paying living wages to American workers.
Anyone who thinks these "students" didn''t take our technology back to China is living in a fantasy. The Bushes and the Clintons, and the billionaires who own and operate both camps, sold our children''s birthright for a mess of pottage. That should be called treason. Our children and grandchildren have lost much due to the greed of the Larry Ellisons and Bill Clintons.
We are truly the guilty cowards.
THen the price of their goods will go up.
Then some other 3rd world country will become the new China with cheap goods and cheap labor.
Just like China replaced Japan, if you''re old enough to remember the "Made in Japan" days.
This article is wishful thinking but it''s not going to happen.
"What the United States used to have was preeminence in science, technology, and manufacturing, due to he hard work and creativity of our people"
Yes, and affirmative action has greatly diminished this ability. It rewards color rather than knowledge and innovation. China does not have this issue as they will only take the very best.
Posted by HawkSprings yeah go get your milk and cookies and go to bed everything will be alright...
Posted by cbsfan73
Yeah, that''s the problem. We''ve given too many opportunities to the coloreds.
Good job. You nailed it.
Posted by BarbaraM99
CPUs are still not manufactured in China, the technology trading laws still in effect prevent them from doing so.
I have heard of these worthless projections for decades. Reminds me of the 19th Century warning that London would be buried in horse manure by 1900 if its growth were not slowed.
Or that we were to have hyperinflation in the early 1980s.
Or that Europe would be completely socialist by the late 1980s and the US would be isolated in the world.
Or that Japan, the then-new economic darling, would surpass the U.S. in economic size in the 1990s.
I could go on and on, but spare me. A Communist-controlled, human rights violating, 1.4-billion-population sweatshop called %u201Cmainland China%u201D surpassing the US? The thought is the ultimate of ignorance.
Did you take into account the much higher fuel costs to ship overseas will bring more manufacturing back into the U.S.? Oh, you missed that. That is unless the labor unions once again price themselves out of the market here.
We could be even more competitive if we exported the anti-business measures inherent in affirmative action, OSHA, EPA, ADA, and PC. Burden China, India, and Europe with any of these and they will fail.
Or is the impetus of this story once again that a book is being huckstered, this time by Fareed Zakarias?
"The Golden Age ended for America when she got greedy and lazy, Let other nations build,make things. In the 70s ye could find MADE IN USA, Today it is hard to find."
American workers are a direct reflection of their leaders.
But lead, antifreeze, melamine, poorly built products, and now apparently cheating in the Olympics... those are tarnishing their nation and have only themselves to blame. I recall an article, on CBS News.com I think being the source, from some time ago, that even Russia was recalling products made from China due to poor safety.
As long as offshoring continues, with those countries prospering (proof it''s not all about slave wages; what''s slave wages to us is clearly manna from heaven elsewhere), of course the US will eventually fall in the abyss. Seems pretty common knowledge by now.
Lastly, does gen Y know that and have given up? Or is there something else going on? or both?
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In a global economy, source country won''t matter -- now, business and country are currently two disparate entities. Will these be merged? When will things make sense again?
Regarding your story on America''s industrial decline. Jason Sacca and Robin Skeete may want to re-check their facts. According to my numbers, Toyota sold 1,555,132 vehicles in the U.S. through July. GM SOLD 1,840,126. Last I checked, 1.84MM was higher than 1.56MM. Please re-check and if I am correct please correct your statement next Sunday. Its bad enough to have Toyota spreading mis-information in this country. To have our own news organizations gleefully helping them is unforgivable. The next time you complain about the mythical "bad quality" of American automobles, you may want to contemplate the very real problem of the terrible quality of American journalism.
"tax cuts for Wall Street" which has no loyalty.
"bust up the unions" Reagan is strong and decisive.
"defecits don''t matter" that''s a sign of our economic superpowers.
"let''s invade Iraq and bleed our military to death" that way the British will be proud of us.
"keep interests rates too low to punish savings and reward borrowers" those are signs of a robust economy.
"let''s bail out Wall Street and BIG BANKS" they need the money to move to Dubai.
"let''s "bluff" the Russians and show them whose boss" they will freak-out if we lead them to believe we can survive a nuclear holocaust.
"let''s believe everything Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity says" they know what''s best for America since they have a PHD in economics and were in the military during WWI.
Republicans are the cheeleaders of "national suicide" and you wonder why they''re called "Republican Suicide Bombers".
Like I have said before:
Politicians are put in power by the wealthy and for the wealthy.
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Posted by Hucklebarry4 at 10:49 AM : Aug 17, 2008--
Look dude,
take that idealogy of "free market capitalism" and "communism" vs "democracy" and all that krap you hear on the Rush Limbaugh show and throw it in the trah can.
Empires come and go and have nothing to do with "democracy", "capitalism" etc. it all has to do with economic and military strength.
Or, we can switch our mindset from producing the cheapest goods possible to producing the highest quality products in the world.
Either way, the old way of doing business is over and we have to change the way things are done or we will be downgraded to second place.
"Anyone notice what Ronald Reagan did to the USSR?"
Actually, the Pope was more instrumental than Ronnie was. So that is why Georgie likes to push Christianity in China. Religion was the weapon when economic and military might failed.
Posted by Hucklebarry4
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And I thought what we did to the USSR is now happening to the USA thanks to other countries and the Al Quaeda movement?
The US is more like Europe in that we balance uncontrolled industrial growth with constraints of protecting the public health, and balance uncontrolled greed with safeguards for worker conditions, worker benefits, and supporting community development.
In a few years, the industrial centers of China will be a wasteland of dumps, polluted factories, and areas that are much more inhospitable than the pre-industrial rural culture which preceeded the industrial revolution.
What the US SHOULD be doing is controlling our BORROWING foreign dollars for everything. Individual consumers do not have to borrow so much. That much is simple economics -- eventually your eggs will hatch and your chickens will be foreclosed upon. Borrowing beyond your means cannot continue to expand forever or we will be OWNED by the world.
In Europe the innovation in green industries has become an emerging and successful market, one that has improved the region''s livability for residents. The US should put their money into new energy technologies that do not waste resources. There is no reason we cannot become our own Honda and Toyota of the world if our R&D gets on track with top support and committment. We can be on top with energy just like we are currently on top with computers.
...but it''''s not idiotic to the guy that made a profit$$ comprende?
I agree, however; who said the guy had to be from China? Why not from America. This is where the idiocracy lies. That''s why are country is falling - we''re putting too much of our dependency in other countries.
Also, Posted by orangeman881 wrote:
....you may want to contemplate the very real problem of the terrible quality of American journalism.
I agree. The quality in that the information is not always accurate, but also that appears that this jounalist appears to be "throwning in the towel".
"Or, we can switch our mindset from producing the cheapest goods possible to producing the highest quality products in the world."
Who do you mean by "we"? It should be substituted by "the wealthy".
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Posted by nfynvk74769 at 10:55 AM : Aug 17, 2008--
LMAO!!!
Either way, the old way of doing business is over and we have to change the way things are done or we will be downgraded to second place.
Posted by yeswecan09
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The British empire lost itself by the end of the 19th century. They''re still around and still doing quite well. So, in all honesty, and even I have to remind myself this, things aren''t entirely so bad and change doesn''t mean it''s going to get p!ss poor bad.
Assuming the American empire will end too - which it may or may not.
Only time will tell.
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Posted by nfynvk74769 at 10:55 AM : Aug 17, 2008--
And the star of "Kindergarten Cop" and a one-time promoter of steroids who also proved he was using them when he had a nude photo of himself taken is governing California now. So what? The past doesn''t equate to the present.
Not to suggest Reagan was the holy panacea - after all, the man who lead the 80s revolution of "self interest" is now being spat on my Candidate McCain, saying we all have to work for ideals other than "self interest".
What all that means, I have no idea. Except people can change. Still have to work within the limitations and attributes God gave us.
"The best jobs are going elsewhere where the workforce is better educated and are willing to work for less."
A rich man''s passion. It''s like *** for him.
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