Aug. 12, 2008
Convention Bounce, Bump Or Noise?
CBS News' Kathy Frankovic Assesses The Chances Of Movement In The Polls Due To Conventions, VP Picks
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Will the party conventions have an impact on the presidential race? Historically, conventions can give a candidate a “bounce” or a “bump” in the polls, though sometimes it’s just a slight one. How likely is that this year? Could it just be a lot of “noise?”
Polls have suggested - consistently -- that the race is fairly close, albeit with Democrat Barack Obama in the lead. They also show many voters are undecided, or have not yet made a firm choice. In the last CBS News poll, for example, completed earlier this month, 13 percent of registered voters were undecided and nearly three in ten of those with a choice said their minds could still change.
So there is definitely the possibility of movement in the next few weeks. But given their schedules, can we expect the conventions, on their own, to affect public opinion directly? This year, there will be only a three-day gap between the two conventions. The Democratic Convention ends on the Thursday night before Labor Day Weekend and the Republicans begin their convention on Labor Day itself. Will we even be able to measure whatever impact the Democratic Convention has on Obama before it’s time to measure the GOP convention’s impact on John McCain? And will we be able to sort out what has caused what?
Will we actually discover a “bounce” or a “bump?”
Probably not. Polling over Labor Day Weekend is always a problem. We confront more than the usual number of people who don’t respond or can’t respond. People are away from their homes, heading back from summer vacation, or preparing their children for the start of the school year. In addition, the focus will shift so quickly from the Democrats to the Republicans that whatever opinions might be expressed over Labor Day Weekend might not last too long.
We’ve not seen this compressed a schedule ever before. In 2004, the Democrats met at the end of July, while the Republicans waited five weeks to start theirs on August 30. So we were able to measure - separately - the impact of John Kerry’s choice of John Edwards for Vice President, just before the Democratic Convention, as well as the impact of the Democratic Convention itself on public opinion about them. (As it happened, neither the V.P. choice nor the convention appeared to change public opinion very much.).
In 2000, George W. Bush named Dick Cheney as his running mate eight days before the GOP convention started on July 31. The Democrats began their convention two weeks after that, and in the intervening time, Al Gore announced that Joe Lieberman was his choice for V.P. Likewise, in 1996, there were two weeks between the Republican and Democratic conventions, and Republican Bob Dole announced his choice of Jack Kemp as a running mate a few days before their convention began.
A whole month separated the two conventions in 1992. The Democrats held theirs first. And their “bounce” was one of the all-time largest ever recorded, at 13 points: in the CBS News poll, the Democratic ticket soared from 45 percent before the convention to 58 percent afterwards.
But sorting out the cause of that rise was as complicated as it will be sorting out the cause of any Democratic “bounce” -- if there is one - this year. Bill Clinton named Al Gore as his running mate on July 10, 1992, and the Democratic Convention began on July 13. Businessman Ross Perot had been running an independent campaign (and sometimes placed first in national polls). But Perot dropped out of the race on July 16 - the day Clinton and Gore accepted their nominations, and made what some took to be an endorsement of the Clinton-Gore ticket: “The Democratic Party has revitalized itself. They've done a brilliant job, in my opinion, in coming back.” (Despite that statement, Perot changed his mind in October, and jumped back into the race.)
The removal of such a strong third-party candidate certainly contributed to the Democratic gains. But it also masked our ability to measure any direct impact the Convention might have had, and made it difficult to judge what Al Gore’s nomination added to the ticket.
In 1988, it was the Republicans who mixed up the V.P. nomination and the Convention’s impact. Democrat Michael Dukakis put five days between his announcement of V.P. choice Lloyd Bentsen and the start of his convention; George H.W. Bush named Dan Quayle as his V.P. on the second day of the GOP convention. Whatever the cause, Bush got a 13-point convention bump, just as Clinton would four years later, but polling couldn’t on its own sort out what role Quayle or the convention itself played.
This has been an unusual election year - and election year schedule. News coverage - and polling - has had to adapt. With Obama expected to name his V.P. choice sometime next week, we should be able to measure its impact before the convention starts -- as long as he makes his announcement early enough. But given the compressed time frame this year, we may never know what short-term impact - if any -McCain’s V.P. choice will have. The longer he waits, the more likely his announcement will come close to the Democrats’ convention, or overlap with it or follow it. So the more likely any immediate impact of his announcement will get mixed in with everything else going on.
In fact, we will have to wait until about three weeks from now, to sort everything out - after the Republicans are finished on September 4!
As for the “bounce” or the “bump,” a Google search finds about seven times as many references to the phrase “convention bounce” as “convention bump,” So, while we may not know what - if anything - the impact of the conventions will be, we do know what we’re likely to call it! And hopefully, it won’t just be “noise.”
By Kathy Frankovic
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all his campaign promises mean nothing without congress.
we need to change congress the democrats will kill us with new taxes.
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Posted by tbweb at 03:06 PM : Aug 15, 2008
The only problem with that is that Obscamma would have to have Tinkerbelle as his VP so she could wave her magic wand to produce all his gimme gimme''s and his greenie weeenie krapdoodle plans!
The other problem is that this country and its Constitution do NOT need to be buried in global authority with whack job agreements like the Global Poverty Act and Kyoto Agreements! That should be scarey enough for anybody!
Not to mention his total support by corrupt Chicago Muslims, and Marxist whack job idiots!
Posted by mr2258
you are absolutely correct. he is being made to look serious, seasoned, older, wiser because he is being critcized for his inexperience. Have you noticed more gray hair, too? I can''t wait to see Michelle''s makeover at the convention.
Posted by tbweb
Fresh ideas like the Civilian Military and Police Act, and the Global Poverty Act I don''t want any part of. As far as good judgement; you are known by the company you keep. Lay with pigs, you come up smelling like garbage.
Posted by mr2258 at 09:02 PM : Aug 15, 2008
I took a look at Obama''s picture and I saw the anti-Christ. I saw a picture of evil. I saw a man guilty of infanticide.
HUSSEIN SAYS MUSLIM CALL TO PRAYER IS ONE OF THE PRETTIEST SOUNDS ON EARTH AT SUNSET
%u201CI was a little Jakarta street kid,%u201D Obama said in a wide-ranging interview in his office (excerpts are on Nicholas D. Kristofs''s blog, http://www.nytimes.com/ontheground). He once got in trouble for making faces during Koran study classes in his elementary school, but a president is less likely to stereotype Muslims as fanatics %u2014 and more likely to be aware of their nationalism %u2014 if he once studied the Koran with them.
Mr. Obama recalled the opening lines of the Arabic call to prayer, reciting them with a first-rate accent. In a remark that seemed delightfully uncalculated (it%u2019ll give Alabama voters heart attacks), Mr. Obama described the call to prayer as %u201Cone of the prettiest sounds on Earth at sunset.%u201D
http://select.nytimes.com/2007/03/06/opinion/06kristof.html?_r=2&scp=5&sq=nicholas+kristof%20obama&st=nyt&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
This world is too dangerous for McCain to be the President...
msgtsteve...as a white, Independent American, I''m ashamed of your remarks. If you truly served your country, you shame our military...in which my family has served faithfully through the years back to the Revolution.
The sad truth of it is that no matter which party wins this particular election, things will very likely remain just as they are now; with the US sliding slowly and relentlessly downhill.
It''s going to take a lot more than just a ''changing of the guard'' at the White House to fix all the problems we face, as a nation, right now.
It''s going to require a serious reality check on the part of every American; a willingness to confront tough issues and choices; and the courage and determination to truly resolve them.
The America that I see every day doesn''t really seem to be prepared to face that kind of a challenge yet, though, I don''t think. Things probably need to get a LOT worse before that day finally comes (if it ever does at all) and by that time it''ll probably be far too late to matter.
here is your BAD ECONOMY nancy,,, and HUSSEIN will bring it back,,,
nothing succeeds like success
from the dimmy kar-ter years of double digit unemployment, double digit inflation rate and double digit house mortgage interest rates, car loans were like going to a loan shark
reagan years brought single digit unemployment, single digit inflation and single digit house mortgage rates
vote demonic-rat to reward the deadbeat parasites spendthrifts
vote gop to reward the workers, frugal savers, investers, job creaters
even a dishwasher can become financially independent and secure under capitalism
"Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country." - John F. Kennedy, Inaugural Address, Jan. 20, 1961
The first requisite of a good citizen in this Republic of ours is that he shall be able and willing to pull his own weight. Theodore Roosevelt
If an American is to amount to anything he must rely upon himself, and not upon the State; he must take pride in his own work, instead of sitting idle to envy the luck of others. He must face life with resolute courage, win victory if he can, and accept defeat if he must, without seeking to place on his fellow man a responsibility which is not theirs. - Review of Reviews January 1897 Theodore Roosevelt
Posted by trrrorislamx at 09:17 AM : Aug 16, 2008
ROTFLMMFAO!!!
What planet is it that you live on?
Posted by johnbush2 at 11:44 PM : Aug 15, 2008
Sure it wasn''t your mirror?
Posted by johnbush2 at 11:46 PM : Aug 15, 2008
If you in any way consider yourself to be a Christian, then you must be aware of the fact that there is a commandment against talking trash about people. Don''t bother responding to me--just consider what your response would be to the big man upstairs when he calls you out on it...
His political agenda is based around the fact that the government can run your life for you better that you can, which is rubbish. The United States is one of the youngest countries in the world and yet we are considered to be the only super power on the planet. How did this happen? Freedom!! The main component of freedom is personal responsibility, the right to make your own decisions as long as it doesn%u2019t impinge upon the freedom of others and be responsible for the consequences of your decisions, be those consequences good or bad. If you make decisions in your life that don%u2019t lead to a better life then it is not the responsibility of the people who do work towards a better life to give up a part of that and give it to you. Obama%u2019s policies revolve around wealth distribution which, besides being boarder line socialist, does exactly that and it is wrong. Nevadapundit.com
Did you vote for George W Bush?
And if so, what did you think you were voting for?
The decline of the American middle class, as well as America''s stature in the world is a direct result of this kind of thinking.
If Eisenhower were running for president today, he would have been labeled a socialist by you people.
Posted by tothestars2 at 01:10 PM : Aug 16, 2008
Perhaps because there wasn''t any?
If there was, I''m guessing that you would have provided a link to your ''source''.
DEMONIC-RAT HUSSEIN IS NOT THE SOLUTION,,,
EXPOSE HUSSEIN
http://www.exposeobama.com/obamaislam.html
www.obamatruth.org
www.stop-obama.org
A Video Portrait Of Barack Hussein Obama
http://www.eyeblast.tv/public/video.aspx?RsrcID=2036
The Barack Obama Test
http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/02/the_barack_obama_test.html
Obama-Odinga-Rezko-Ayers-Auchi-Saddam Hussein
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIe4d9Nmg9k
Raila Odinga was also financially backed by Muammar al-Gaddafi. Raila Odinga is Obama''s cousin:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/717...
Why does Raila Odinga use Obama''s exact same campaign slogan: CHANGE....Vote for CHANGE: Look at his website:
http://www.raila07.com/
IMPEACH HUSSEIN NOW,,,
SIGN THE PETITION
Impeach, expel Barack Obama
http://obamaimpeachment.org
HUSSEIN IS NO COMMANDER IN CHIEF,,, lol
McCain Tops Obama in Commander-in-Chief Test; Stays Competitive on Iraq
Poll Finds 72 Percent of Americans Say McCain Would be Good Commander-in-Chief
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/Story?id=5370538&page=1
Obama: Commander-in-(mis)chief?
http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/imperium/2008/07/200872011345855233.html
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Posted by cbullcom at 05:18 PM : Aug 15, 2008--------------------- --------------------------------------let me think gas got higher whn dems won and took over congress.....bailouts for big housing.....banks defaulting and being took over by govt......no drilling,nuke plants coal fired plants,no wind powered elect. off kennedys coast......i dont think we can afford dems for much longer
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Posted by tbweb at 03:06 PM : Aug 15, 2008-------------- -------------------------------------------- fresh ideas give me a break were you still in dipers during carters "windfall profit tax"...look it up IT DIDENT WORK no company pays taxesit gets added on to the cost of the product.....WE THE PEOPLE PAY THE TAX EVEN A FRIST GRADER CAN UNDERSTAND THIS
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by ragnar30066
August 17, 2008 7:02 PM EDT
- Incredibly stupid. Obama wants to appease Hillary by allowing her to be nominated. If she wants the nomination, she will take the opportunity and trounce him. If she doesn''t, it will because she considers the election to have already been lost by Obama''s ineptitude, and that she needs to wait for 2012 to run against incumbent McCain.
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See all 30 CommentsAnd this is the clown some Obamatoids thought could deal effectively with Putin. Stan Laurel had a better chance.