Convention Bounce, Bump Or Noise?

CBS News' Kathy Frankovic Assesses The Chances Of Movement In The Polls Due To Conventions, VP Picks

(CBS)  This column was written by CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic.

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Will the party conventions have an impact on the presidential race? Historically, conventions can give a candidate a “bounce” or a “bump” in the polls, though sometimes it’s just a slight one. How likely is that this year? Could it just be a lot of “noise?”

Polls have suggested - consistently -- that the race is fairly close, albeit with Democrat Barack Obama in the lead. They also show many voters are undecided, or have not yet made a firm choice. In the last CBS News poll, for example, completed earlier this month, 13 percent of registered voters were undecided and nearly three in ten of those with a choice said their minds could still change.

So there is definitely the possibility of movement in the next few weeks. But given their schedules, can we expect the conventions, on their own, to affect public opinion directly? This year, there will be only a three-day gap between the two conventions. The Democratic Convention ends on the Thursday night before Labor Day Weekend and the Republicans begin their convention on Labor Day itself. Will we even be able to measure whatever impact the Democratic Convention has on Obama before it’s time to measure the GOP convention’s impact on John McCain? And will we be able to sort out what has caused what?

Will we actually discover a “bounce” or a “bump?”

Probably not. Polling over Labor Day Weekend is always a problem. We confront more than the usual number of people who don’t respond or can’t respond. People are away from their homes, heading back from summer vacation, or preparing their children for the start of the school year. In addition, the focus will shift so quickly from the Democrats to the Republicans that whatever opinions might be expressed over Labor Day Weekend might not last too long.

We’ve not seen this compressed a schedule ever before. In 2004, the Democrats met at the end of July, while the Republicans waited five weeks to start theirs on August 30. So we were able to measure - separately - the impact of John Kerry’s choice of John Edwards for Vice President, just before the Democratic Convention, as well as the impact of the Democratic Convention itself on public opinion about them. (As it happened, neither the V.P. choice nor the convention appeared to change public opinion very much.).

In 2000, George W. Bush named Dick Cheney as his running mate eight days before the GOP convention started on July 31. The Democrats began their convention two weeks after that, and in the intervening time, Al Gore announced that Joe Lieberman was his choice for V.P. Likewise, in 1996, there were two weeks between the Republican and Democratic conventions, and Republican Bob Dole announced his choice of Jack Kemp as a running mate a few days before their convention began.

A whole month separated the two conventions in 1992. The Democrats held theirs first. And their “bounce” was one of the all-time largest ever recorded, at 13 points: in the CBS News poll, the Democratic ticket soared from 45 percent before the convention to 58 percent afterwards.

But sorting out the cause of that rise was as complicated as it will be sorting out the cause of any Democratic “bounce” -- if there is one - this year. Bill Clinton named Al Gore as his running mate on July 10, 1992, and the Democratic Convention began on July 13. Businessman Ross Perot had been running an independent campaign (and sometimes placed first in national polls). But Perot dropped out of the race on July 16 - the day Clinton and Gore accepted their nominations, and made what some took to be an endorsement of the Clinton-Gore ticket: “The Democratic Party has revitalized itself. They've done a brilliant job, in my opinion, in coming back.” (Despite that statement, Perot changed his mind in October, and jumped back into the race.)

The removal of such a strong third-party candidate certainly contributed to the Democratic gains. But it also masked our ability to measure any direct impact the Convention might have had, and made it difficult to judge what Al Gore’s nomination added to the ticket.

In 1988, it was the Republicans who mixed up the V.P. nomination and the Convention’s impact. Democrat Michael Dukakis put five days between his announcement of V.P. choice Lloyd Bentsen and the start of his convention; George H.W. Bush named Dan Quayle as his V.P. on the second day of the GOP convention. Whatever the cause, Bush got a 13-point convention bump, just as Clinton would four years later, but polling couldn’t on its own sort out what role Quayle or the convention itself played.

This has been an unusual election year - and election year schedule. News coverage - and polling - has had to adapt. With Obama expected to name his V.P. choice sometime next week, we should be able to measure its impact before the convention starts -- as long as he makes his announcement early enough. But given the compressed time frame this year, we may never know what short-term impact - if any -McCain’s V.P. choice will have. The longer he waits, the more likely his announcement will come close to the Democrats’ convention, or overlap with it or follow it. So the more likely any immediate impact of his announcement will get mixed in with everything else going on.

In fact, we will have to wait until about three weeks from now, to sort everything out - after the Republicans are finished on September 4!

As for the “bounce” or the “bump,” a Google search finds about seven times as many references to the phrase “convention bounce” as “convention bump,” So, while we may not know what - if anything - the impact of the conventions will be, we do know what we’re likely to call it! And hopefully, it won’t just be “noise.”

[ragnar30066]

Incredibly stupid. Obama wants to appease Hillary by allowing her to be nominated. If she wants the nomination, she will take the opportunity and trounce him. If she doesn''t, it will because she considers the election to have already been lost by Obama''s ineptitude, and that she needs to wait for 2012 to run against incumbent McCain.

And this is the clown some Obamatoids thought could deal effectively with Putin. Stan Laurel had a better chance.

[coryellco]

The real questions Americans need to seriously consider is; do Republicans deserve another chance, and since its after 2 terms, do Republicans deserve a third chance or do Democrats deserve a first chance with Sen. Obama. Sen. Obama does not have experience but he does have fresh ideas and good judgment which is equal or better than experience!



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Posted by tbweb at 03:06 PM : Aug 15, 2008-------------- -------------------------------------------- fresh ideas give me a break were you still in dipers during carters "windfall profit tax"...look it up IT DIDENT WORK no company pays taxesit gets added on to the cost of the product.....WE THE PEOPLE PAY THE TAX EVEN A FRIST GRADER CAN UNDERSTAND THIS

[coryellco]

You people kill me talking about Obama''''s experience. I shouldn''''t say this, but I will. We have had nothing but white presidents, and look where experience has put us.


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Posted by cbullcom at 05:18 PM : Aug 15, 2008--------------------- --------------------------------------let me think gas got higher whn dems won and took over congress.....bailouts for big housing.....banks defaulting and being took over by govt......no drilling,nuke plants coal fired plants,no wind powered elect. off kennedys coast......i dont think we can afford dems for much longer

[coryellco]

as bho calls for "change" so did hitler....changing something for change sake dont mean it will be better change is a double edged sword

[trrrorislamx]

FASCIST NAZI TERRORISLAM IS THE PROBLEM,,,

DEMONIC-RAT HUSSEIN IS NOT THE SOLUTION,,,

EXPOSE HUSSEIN
http://www.exposeobama.com/obamaislam.html

www.obamatruth.org

www.stop-obama.org

A Video Portrait Of Barack Hussein Obama
http://www.eyeblast.tv/public/video.aspx?RsrcID=2036

The Barack Obama Test
http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/02/the_barack_obama_test.html

Obama-Odinga-Rezko-Ayers-Auchi-Saddam Hussein
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIe4d9Nmg9k

Raila Odinga was also financially backed by Muammar al-Gaddafi. Raila Odinga is Obama''s cousin:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/717...

Why does Raila Odinga use Obama''s exact same campaign slogan: CHANGE....Vote for CHANGE: Look at his website:
http://www.raila07.com/


IMPEACH HUSSEIN NOW,,,

SIGN THE PETITION

Impeach, expel Barack Obama
http://obamaimpeachment.org

HUSSEIN IS NO COMMANDER IN CHIEF,,, lol

McCain Tops Obama in Commander-in-Chief Test; Stays Competitive on Iraq

Poll Finds 72 Percent of Americans Say McCain Would be Good Commander-in-Chief
http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/Story?id=5370538&page=1

Obama: Commander-in-(mis)chief?
http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/imperium/2008/07/200872011345855233.html

[ofbyfor1]

I wonder why CBS news has no report on the racist remark of dnc leader dean about republicans as other news org. have?

Posted by tothestars2 at 01:10 PM : Aug 16, 2008

Perhaps because there wasn''t any?

If there was, I''m guessing that you would have provided a link to your ''source''.

[tothestars2]

I wonder why CBS news has no report on the racist remark of dnc leader dean about republicans as other news org. have?

[sparks224]

It amazes me to the core that anyone can still believe the Rush Limbaugh c.r.a.p that has been pumped out over the airwaves for the last 20 years.

The decline of the American middle class, as well as America''s stature in the world is a direct result of this kind of thinking.

If Eisenhower were running for president today, he would have been labeled a socialist by you people.

[sparks224]

NevadaPundit,
Did you vote for George W Bush?
And if so, what did you think you were voting for?

[nevadapundit]

It amazes me to the core that anyone can still believe in any way that Obama is the person to lead America. What has he done that mesmerizes people so? Well what he did do was attend a church for many years whose priest said God D#$% America and spouts white hating sermons. Yeah Obama denounced him but does anyone believe that the reverend just started that recently? No, sorry but no. How about his friend and business partner Rezko whom he was associated with for years, ran for president and then denounced. These were people who influenced him.

His political agenda is based around the fact that the government can run your life for you better that you can, which is rubbish. The United States is one of the youngest countries in the world and yet we are considered to be the only super power on the planet. How did this happen? Freedom!! The main component of freedom is personal responsibility, the right to make your own decisions as long as it doesn%u2019t impinge upon the freedom of others and be responsible for the consequences of your decisions, be those consequences good or bad. If you make decisions in your life that don%u2019t lead to a better life then it is not the responsibility of the people who do work towards a better life to give up a part of that and give it to you. Obama%u2019s policies revolve around wealth distribution which, besides being boarder line socialist, does exactly that and it is wrong. Nevadapundit.com

[ofbyfor1]

Barack Hussein Muhammad Obama is a muslim.

Posted by johnbush2 at 11:46 PM : Aug 15, 2008

If you in any way consider yourself to be a Christian, then you must be aware of the fact that there is a commandment against talking trash about people. Don''t bother responding to me--just consider what your response would be to the big man upstairs when he calls you out on it...

[chika6]

Experience! What is experience and what experience does a man shut down and captured as a pow and cannot use a computer has in the 21st century? I cannot imagine Mccain appearing with world leaders and he cant surf the web. Gosh! Is it possible America will prefer this man to lead her than this intelligent and youthful Obama. Bush had experience and see where the experience has left America and with Mccain ''experience'' America will go to war over Georgia, Chad, Ethiopia, Bangladish, Burma, Somalia, etc. with that no American can walk in the street of any major city in the world and be safe. Welcome experience John McCain.

[ofbyfor1]

I saw the anti-Christ. I saw a picture of evil. I saw a man guilty of infanticide.

Posted by johnbush2 at 11:44 PM : Aug 15, 2008

Sure it wasn''t your mirror?

[ofbyfor1]

even a dishwasher can become financially independent and secure under capitalism

Posted by trrrorislamx at 09:17 AM : Aug 16, 2008

ROTFLMMFAO!!!

What planet is it that you live on?

[chika6]

You republicans are a bundle of shameless idiots. See how difficult lies are in you mouth. You can write millions of lies about OBAMA he is certainly fitter than the Old warmonger and wife cheat called John Mccain. Can you imagine a man near his grave always calling for war at the slightest opportunity? How many of his children and relations are fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan? He leaves in his ranch with his thieving wife while the woman who made him is languishing in penury. President Mccain will be a laughing stock to the world and I know Americans are proud, intelligent and charming people to allow this.

[trrrorislamx]

Posted by laborsvoice at 08:51 AM : Aug 16, 2008

here is your BAD ECONOMY nancy,,, and HUSSEIN will bring it back,,,

nothing succeeds like success

from the dimmy kar-ter years of double digit unemployment, double digit inflation rate and double digit house mortgage interest rates, car loans were like going to a loan shark

reagan years brought single digit unemployment, single digit inflation and single digit house mortgage rates

vote demonic-rat to reward the deadbeat parasites spendthrifts

vote gop to reward the workers, frugal savers, investers, job creaters

even a dishwasher can become financially independent and secure under capitalism

"Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country." - John F. Kennedy, Inaugural Address, Jan. 20, 1961

The first requisite of a good citizen in this Republic of ours is that he shall be able and willing to pull his own weight. Theodore Roosevelt

If an American is to amount to anything he must rely upon himself, and not upon the State; he must take pride in his own work, instead of sitting idle to envy the luck of others. He must face life with resolute courage, win victory if he can, and accept defeat if he must, without seeking to place on his fellow man a responsibility which is not theirs. - Review of Reviews January 1897 Theodore Roosevelt

[dashortround]

The sad truth of it is that no matter which party wins this particular election, things will very likely remain just as they are now; with the US sliding slowly and relentlessly downhill.

It''s going to take a lot more than just a ''changing of the guard'' at the White House to fix all the problems we face, as a nation, right now.

It''s going to require a serious reality check on the part of every American; a willingness to confront tough issues and choices; and the courage and determination to truly resolve them.

The America that I see every day doesn''t really seem to be prepared to face that kind of a challenge yet, though, I don''t think. Things probably need to get a LOT worse before that day finally comes (if it ever does at all) and by that time it''ll probably be far too late to matter.

[mommakat64]

Here we go with the usual racist remarks and polarizing innuendos. fstop, yes, we definitely need to weed out some flotsam from Congress...seriously weed out. White run American government has got us into war after war, deregulation of everything that SHOULD be regulated, no hope for the future for the poor, the disabled or the seniors in this country, economically and medically. JFK was inexperienced, but he gathered around him the best minds in the country for his cabinets, White House and kitchen. I''m hoping that Obama will too...and I''m sure some will be black, Hispanic and/or white, and, hopefully, of different religious persuasions...like this country is. Somehow we have to get all sides and cultures to return to the "melting pot" that has been this countries greatest strength...until this century. The Clintons are going to try to control the Dem convention for future benefits to them, and it will be a shame...she will never quit until she gets that title as revenge for her humiliation by Bill. McCain is the Clinton''s goal, to the total detriment of this country. Obama is our only chance....

This world is too dangerous for McCain to be the President...

msgtsteve...as a white, Independent American, I''m ashamed of your remarks. If you truly served your country, you shame our military...in which my family has served faithfully through the years back to the Revolution.

[trrrorislamx]

ask HUSSEIN to sing the call to prayer and then the american national anthem,,,

HUSSEIN SAYS MUSLIM CALL TO PRAYER IS ONE OF THE PRETTIEST SOUNDS ON EARTH AT SUNSET

%u201CI was a little Jakarta street kid,%u201D Obama said in a wide-ranging interview in his office (excerpts are on Nicholas D. Kristofs''s blog, http://www.nytimes.com/ontheground). He once got in trouble for making faces during Koran study classes in his elementary school, but a president is less likely to stereotype Muslims as fanatics %u2014 and more likely to be aware of their nationalism %u2014 if he once studied the Koran with them.

Mr. Obama recalled the opening lines of the Arabic call to prayer, reciting them with a first-rate accent. In a remark that seemed delightfully uncalculated (it%u2019ll give Alabama voters heart attacks), Mr. Obama described the call to prayer as %u201Cone of the prettiest sounds on Earth at sunset.%u201D
http://select.nytimes.com/2007/03/06/opinion/06kristof.html?_r=2&scp=5&sq=nicholas+kristof%20obama&st=nyt&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

[johnbush2-2009]

Barack Hussein Muhammad Obama is a muslim.