Fog Of War Obscures Reality In Georgia

Conflicting Intelligence Reports And Media Accounts Limit White House's Understanding

(AP)  The White House grasp of developments in war-battered Georgia has been hampered by confusing reports from the ground and intelligence resources that initially were focused more on Iraq and Afghanistan than the former Soviet republic.

One-sided and possibly exaggerated accounts of actions from both sides and the Bush administration's difficulty in independently verifying information about the war have left the White House standing on an ever-changing platform from which to speak out on the crisis.

At least three times on Wednesday, President George W. Bush referred to being concerned about "reports" that Russia had violated its pledge to a provisional cease-fire. White House press secretary Dana Perino hedged her answers to questions about the conflict, too.

"We do have credible reports that Russia has taken actions that violate the cease-fire agreement, and that's what the president was referring to," she said. "I can't get into specifics, but we do have those reports and we're concerned about them, and we are working to get concrete information. It's not the easiest thing in the world given the geography and the cutoff of information."

Beyond intelligence reports and media accounts, State Department officials on the ground are relaying information through cables and phone calls, said Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council. "It is very difficult to get accurate situational awareness in real time in a crisis that is fast-moving," Johndroe said. "This is a motorized conflict in a relatively small area and that means the situation on the ground can change very quickly."

Still, defense officials concede that in the early stages of Russia's move into Georgia over the weekend, the U.S. did not have a good view of the war, which has strained relations between Washington and Moscow.

The Defense Department has limited intelligence-gathering assets, including satellites, and defense officials said the bulk of the military's eyes and ears have been focused on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. During the weekend, as the situation in Georgia worsened, the Pentagon authorized the repositioning of some satellites to get a better understanding of what was happening on the ground.

While the military, as well as U.S. intelligence agencies, can collect imagery or audio at various times and locations, that information then has to be melded with other data and observations from people who are there. According to defense officials, intelligence early Wednesday was mixed and provided a somewhat ambiguous picture of whether Russian troops were launching attacks in Gori or other cities.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of intelligence-gathering, said the quality of information improved throughout the day. By late afternoon, the U.S. had what officials called more robust intelligence on the movement of Russian forces around Gori.

Ariel Cohen, a research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies at the Heritage Foundation who has visited Georgia about a half-dozen times, countered this explanation, saying it's "ludicrous" to assert that satellite capabilities are to blame for the administration's lack of information about the situation in Georgia. Cohen, who said he alerted the Bush administration to Russia's preparations for war in Georgia more than two years ago, said "glaring gaps" in research and analysis by the nation's national security team are to blame.

"I think this is a significant lack of policy and analysis" about events in the region, he said.

Stephen Flanagan, an analyst on security and defense policy and intelligence issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the lack of international presence in either South Ossetia or Abkhazia - the two separatist regions that have been largely overrun by Russia since fighting broke out last week - is making it especially difficult to verify reports.

"I think the administration has most of what they need," he said. "I'm sure we have a lot more information than they're discussing publicly."

Two U.S. officials also denied that the U.S. is having any special problems or unusual difficulties with getting intelligence on this conflict, though they acknowledged that the situation is confusing. The United States is not involved in the conflict, initial reports often are incorrect in the fog of war and it's hard for people there who might give them information to get around the country to validate developments, they said.

In addition, the Russians often say one thing and the Georgians say another, and the international community must work to reconcile the two stories to learn the truth. Two U.S. officials also mentioned that the Georgians have been exaggerating in some of their reports about what the Russians are doing, further complicating the administration's effort to find the truth.

[babooph]

Bush has been very clear-he gets his direction from a "higher" source-God tells him what to do-not intelligence& boy do I believe him!!

[babooph]

Where were all these suspitous "journalists" when Bush & Cheney & their liar for hire press sec -lied up a storm for their "pre-emptive "wars????

[toldyouso12]

Georgia mistakenly thought that when we said we stood behind them, it meant we had their back--it meant we would use them as shields--that''''s all. Bush dares not do more than bluster--watch those sanctions--how do you sanction someone who you dare not fight (nuclear weapons, huge expense, exposed country and our over extended military) and who has a commodity desperately needed (oil)? THINK ABOUT IT.

Poland take heed--because what you see in Georgia is a prelude to what might happen if you try to accomodate those missile defense system. If a chance of retaliation is "100%" what does that mean? Prepare for an azz whuppin'''' that''''s what. And we''''ll stand behind Poland too--FAR behind. Like somewhere in Western Europe. Where Bush will bleat " BAD Russia!! Baaaaad Russia!!"

[toldyouso12]

so.... on those American/ Polish missile sites... think Russia will bomb the proposed areas with limited nuclear weapons (before we build) then wish us luck in building our missles there when the radioactivity dies down in about 13000 years?

Then WWTUSD? Since Russia has nuclear weapons and can reach the US---Go to the UN and ask for more sanctions and refuse to go to more meetings with the Russians. TRANSLATION: "Besides whining, not a *** thing" LOL

[libsluv2spit]

a lot of americans we lovingly call anti-american liberals got to a point that they are so pompus, arrogant, spoiled, devoid of any effort to mainating thier own security, safety and comfort..maybe its time for them to earn it.....

castro..let them all in..

[libsluv2spit]

Russia had managed to brutalize more people in a span of a few days that what most liberals procliam we did in middle east..BUT they dont see that..their scope of thier rants is pretty limited to "chastize the US"..meaning if these georgians are going or is expecting to get any sympathy or "world opinion" from these elite US liberals, the UN and the EU they are wasting time..

[libsluv2spit]

Since the "easy" Irag war has gone on so long, maybe he thinks we invaded Iraq in the 20th century



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Posted by stratmaster2 at 06:48 PM : Aug 14, 2008
+ report abuse

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anti-american hippies TURN liberals believes that this country is in the business of killing babies and invading countries AT THE SAME breath..idolize and orally copluate colonial nations in europe.

thier immediate thoughts are "the US is bad"..so for you too translate it as such does not suprise me at all..

[samsel3]

The Russian invasion of South Ossetia is only for control of the BTC pipelines which sends oil & gas to Ceyran, Turkey. Shareholders in the BTC pipeline are: British Petroleum, AzBTC, Chevron, Statoil, TPAO, ENI, Total, Itochu, INPEX, ConocoPhillips & Amerada Hess.
The Russians are the second largest supplier of gas & oil on the planet.
This pipeline was constructed to circumvent Russian pipelines supplying Europe giving the US Brits et al the lions share of the market.
Taking out Iraq also took a major source of oil away from Russia.
The Russians are now evening the score.

[Stratmaster7]

****, here is an actual quote:

%u201CIn the 21st century, nations don%u2019t invade other nations.%u201D

So says John McCain, as part of his tough talk about Russia%u2019s attacks on Georgia.

Since the "easy" Irag war has gone on so long, maybe he thinks we invaded Iraq in the 20th century

[james77773]

"Russia needs to follow their own words and stand down! "

do you actually want a war?
go tell your kids to dig a very deep hole in the backyard, so they can hide and die there, instead of being fried out in the open. same goes for everyone around the world, including Russia.

this is what will happend when some countries will provoke and others will take a stand!