Fog Of War Obscures Reality In Georgia

Conflicting Intelligence Reports And Media Accounts Limit White House's Understanding

(AP)  The White House grasp of developments in war-battered Georgia has been hampered by confusing reports from the ground and intelligence resources that initially were focused more on Iraq and Afghanistan than the former Soviet republic.

One-sided and possibly exaggerated accounts of actions from both sides and the Bush administration's difficulty in independently verifying information about the war have left the White House standing on an ever-changing platform from which to speak out on the crisis.

At least three times on Wednesday, President George W. Bush referred to being concerned about "reports" that Russia had violated its pledge to a provisional cease-fire. White House press secretary Dana Perino hedged her answers to questions about the conflict, too.

"We do have credible reports that Russia has taken actions that violate the cease-fire agreement, and that's what the president was referring to," she said. "I can't get into specifics, but we do have those reports and we're concerned about them, and we are working to get concrete information. It's not the easiest thing in the world given the geography and the cutoff of information."

Beyond intelligence reports and media accounts, State Department officials on the ground are relaying information through cables and phone calls, said Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council. "It is very difficult to get accurate situational awareness in real time in a crisis that is fast-moving," Johndroe said. "This is a motorized conflict in a relatively small area and that means the situation on the ground can change very quickly."

Still, defense officials concede that in the early stages of Russia's move into Georgia over the weekend, the U.S. did not have a good view of the war, which has strained relations between Washington and Moscow.

The Defense Department has limited intelligence-gathering assets, including satellites, and defense officials said the bulk of the military's eyes and ears have been focused on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. During the weekend, as the situation in Georgia worsened, the Pentagon authorized the repositioning of some satellites to get a better understanding of what was happening on the ground.

While the military, as well as U.S. intelligence agencies, can collect imagery or audio at various times and locations, that information then has to be melded with other data and observations from people who are there. According to defense officials, intelligence early Wednesday was mixed and provided a somewhat ambiguous picture of whether Russian troops were launching attacks in Gori or other cities.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of intelligence-gathering, said the quality of information improved throughout the day. By late afternoon, the U.S. had what officials called more robust intelligence on the movement of Russian forces around Gori.

Ariel Cohen, a research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies at the Heritage Foundation who has visited Georgia about a half-dozen times, countered this explanation, saying it's "ludicrous" to assert that satellite capabilities are to blame for the administration's lack of information about the situation in Georgia. Cohen, who said he alerted the Bush administration to Russia's preparations for war in Georgia more than two years ago, said "glaring gaps" in research and analysis by the nation's national security team are to blame.

"I think this is a significant lack of policy and analysis" about events in the region, he said.

Stephen Flanagan, an analyst on security and defense policy and intelligence issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the lack of international presence in either South Ossetia or Abkhazia - the two separatist regions that have been largely overrun by Russia since fighting broke out last week - is making it especially difficult to verify reports.

"I think the administration has most of what they need," he said. "I'm sure we have a lot more information than they're discussing publicly."

Two U.S. officials also denied that the U.S. is having any special problems or unusual difficulties with getting intelligence on this conflict, though they acknowledged that the situation is confusing. The United States is not involved in the conflict, initial reports often are incorrect in the fog of war and it's hard for people there who might give them information to get around the country to validate developments, they said.

In addition, the Russians often say one thing and the Georgians say another, and the international community must work to reconcile the two stories to learn the truth. Two U.S. officials also mentioned that the Georgians have been exaggerating in some of their reports about what the Russians are doing, further complicating the administration's effort to find the truth.

[babooph]

Bush has been very clear-he gets his direction from a "higher" source-God tells him what to do-not intelligence& boy do I believe him!!

[babooph]

Where were all these suspitous "journalists" when Bush & Cheney & their liar for hire press sec -lied up a storm for their "pre-emptive "wars????

[toldyouso12]

Georgia mistakenly thought that when we said we stood behind them, it meant we had their back--it meant we would use them as shields--that''''s all. Bush dares not do more than bluster--watch those sanctions--how do you sanction someone who you dare not fight (nuclear weapons, huge expense, exposed country and our over extended military) and who has a commodity desperately needed (oil)? THINK ABOUT IT.

Poland take heed--because what you see in Georgia is a prelude to what might happen if you try to accomodate those missile defense system. If a chance of retaliation is "100%" what does that mean? Prepare for an azz whuppin'''' that''''s what. And we''''ll stand behind Poland too--FAR behind. Like somewhere in Western Europe. Where Bush will bleat " BAD Russia!! Baaaaad Russia!!"

[toldyouso12]

so.... on those American/ Polish missile sites... think Russia will bomb the proposed areas with limited nuclear weapons (before we build) then wish us luck in building our missles there when the radioactivity dies down in about 13000 years?

Then WWTUSD? Since Russia has nuclear weapons and can reach the US---Go to the UN and ask for more sanctions and refuse to go to more meetings with the Russians. TRANSLATION: "Besides whining, not a *** thing" LOL

[libsluv2spit]

a lot of americans we lovingly call anti-american liberals got to a point that they are so pompus, arrogant, spoiled, devoid of any effort to mainating thier own security, safety and comfort..maybe its time for them to earn it.....

castro..let them all in..

[libsluv2spit]

Russia had managed to brutalize more people in a span of a few days that what most liberals procliam we did in middle east..BUT they dont see that..their scope of thier rants is pretty limited to "chastize the US"..meaning if these georgians are going or is expecting to get any sympathy or "world opinion" from these elite US liberals, the UN and the EU they are wasting time..

[libsluv2spit]

Since the "easy" Irag war has gone on so long, maybe he thinks we invaded Iraq in the 20th century



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Posted by stratmaster2 at 06:48 PM : Aug 14, 2008
+ report abuse

******************

anti-american hippies TURN liberals believes that this country is in the business of killing babies and invading countries AT THE SAME breath..idolize and orally copluate colonial nations in europe.

thier immediate thoughts are "the US is bad"..so for you too translate it as such does not suprise me at all..

[samsel3]

The Russian invasion of South Ossetia is only for control of the BTC pipelines which sends oil & gas to Ceyran, Turkey. Shareholders in the BTC pipeline are: British Petroleum, AzBTC, Chevron, Statoil, TPAO, ENI, Total, Itochu, INPEX, ConocoPhillips & Amerada Hess.
The Russians are the second largest supplier of gas & oil on the planet.
This pipeline was constructed to circumvent Russian pipelines supplying Europe giving the US Brits et al the lions share of the market.
Taking out Iraq also took a major source of oil away from Russia.
The Russians are now evening the score.

[Stratmaster7]

****, here is an actual quote:

%u201CIn the 21st century, nations don%u2019t invade other nations.%u201D

So says John McCain, as part of his tough talk about Russia%u2019s attacks on Georgia.

Since the "easy" Irag war has gone on so long, maybe he thinks we invaded Iraq in the 20th century

[james77773]

"Russia needs to follow their own words and stand down! "

do you actually want a war?
go tell your kids to dig a very deep hole in the backyard, so they can hide and die there, instead of being fried out in the open. same goes for everyone around the world, including Russia.

this is what will happend when some countries will provoke and others will take a stand!

[zhynaryll]

I believe that some of the commentators on this site must be closet Russkies! I like Russians too, but not Putin and his cronies. I also think the US can do something militarily without getting involved in the war - such as flying recon missions with B-2s and B-1s, overflying the area with fighter planes (clearly marked), moving a naval task force into the Black Sea in a show of force, flying in defensive military supplies, such as Patriot missiles, and ordering submarines into the Black Sea for recon. At least this would give the Russians something to worry about, and put the shoe on the other foot as to who''s bluffing or not! We have air force packages in the area, and could cause a real ruckus if we were of the mind to do so. Russia needs to follow their own words and stand down!

[factsearcher]

Why Russia went into Georgia???
Yeah sure South Osseatia wants to be independent from Georgia, but backed by Russia...pipelines...remember...no support is for free.
Another reason: the latest headlines, which by the way havent been published by CBS...about Poland and US agreeing to the defense deal...is the other reason why Russia is showing their claws.
Look for the news and read:
"Moscow has threatened to redirect missiles toward Poland if the country agrees to host elements of the US missile defense shield"

[terrorislamx]

WHY RUSSIA WENT INTO GEORGIA,,,

Tensions between Georgia and Russia were strained over the Pankisi Gorge, a lawless region of Georgia that Russia said had become a haven for Islamic militants and Chechen rebels.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0107564.html

GET SOME RUSKIES,,, GET SOME,,,

NEVER FORGET THE RAPES OF BESLAN GIRLS!

Terror at Beslan
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1316935651894423094

RAPES IN BESLAN: IN MUHAMMAD''S FOOTSTEPS
http://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/News/Trifkovic04/NewsST091304.html

Forget Not the Children of Beslan
http://kenlydell.typepad.com/islamic_evil/forget_not_the_children_of_beslan/index.html

Religion of Peace??? More like a cult of death.
http://www.terrorists-suck.org/why_suck/beslan.html

Radical Islamists must be stopped:

comments on the Beslan child slaughter.
http://www.sullivan-county.com/immigration/list.htm

Rapes in Beslan: in Muhammed''''s Footsteps
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1214617/posts

[terrorislamx]

Georgia, Georgia, the whole day through
Just an old sweet song
Keeps Georgia on my mind
Talkin'' ''bout Georgia
I''m in Georgia
A song of you
Comes as sweet and clear as moonlight through the pines
Other arms reach out to me
Other eyes smile tenderly
Still in peaceful dreams I see
The road leads back to you
Georgia, sweet Georgia, no peace I find
Just an old sweet song
Keeps Georgia on my mind
Other arms reach out to me
Other eyes smile tenderly
Still in peaceful dreams I see
The road leads back
It always leads back to you
I''m in Georgia, Georgia, sweet Georgia
No peace, no peace I find
Just this old, sweet song
Keeps Georgia forever on my mind
Just an old sweet, sweet song
Keeps Georgia forever on my mind

[james77773]

"They still have a second class military" - are you phucking nuts????????? Russia has awesome army, very well trained, and amazing other amy forces, they are on top. In 1996, while Russian economy was in crisis, I''ve met american top ranked army man, he came to talk to children, and kids asked him, whos army is the strongest in the world, and he said RUSSIAN. So what do you expect now? With better resourses? Who brainwashed your silly head?
Anyways, at this point it doesn''t matter much, most important is the fact that USA is continuing to threaten Russia, by placing nuclear weapons around Russian border. They keep playing CW3, with idio-t Bush having access to the red button, and America''s nation voting for McCain, who most of all likes to play with guns, not only USA, but the whole world is at great great danger!!!
You can hate russians as much as you want, but don''t bite russia. Russia is a mighty country, and it will NEVER back away. If McCain will come to power, childen of the world will not have a chance to live a full life for sure. Do you have kids?

[james77773]

let''s not forget that Joseph Stalin was GEORGIAN, not Russian. He represented evil, and Russians hate him, and that period of time, when he got 20 millions of russian people die, and 20 millions more died in ww2, while he was ussr leader. historians know for a fact that he knew about the ww2 long before it started, but did nothing, because of this millions of russians were wasted in the first 4 months of 4-years war. HE WAS EVIL, AND HE WAS GEORGIAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now, let''s remember, that in total of 21 years when Georgia had independant, they started 7!!!!!!!! wars!
It''s a new war in each 3 years. Georgia is the MOST AGRESSIVE NATION in the world, and Georgian people are all like Stalin, they will smile at you and lie, they even will sware on their mother''s lives that they are your friends and the moment you turn away, they will shoot you in the back. It''s typical for this nation, and america is foolishly making them friends. Just wait, and Georgia will spit on USA, while least expected!

[andylance1]

At the turn of the century the Russian Federation was on the ropes - their military could barely put down the rebellion in Chechnya and their air force pilots didn''t even have enough fuel for training purposes.

In 2002, the price of oil started going up due to increased worldwide demand (China and India) and Russia got their pipelines in place to pump oil and natural gas to Western Europe. The price of oil climbed higher and higher and Russia got richer and richer.

They still have a second class military, but it is still good enough to overwhelm a small country like Georgia. Putin has ruthlessly stifled all dissent in Russia, intimidated the media and opposition political parties and restored dictatorial power to himself. His new persona is Vlad the Terrible. He wants to restore the Russian Empire to the Evil Empire Reagan talked about.

Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows - but our intelligence service was a little slow this time.

[secundus2]

Intelligence estimates are almost always overrated and almost always contain inaccurate info.

Leaders are better served by understanding just the basics: Georgia claims sovereignty over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but these mainly Muslim provinces, with Russian backing, claim independence, just as Kosovo did from Serbia (with US and EU backing).

Let the Europeans, who denounce US unilateralism anyway, sort out this European problem; the US can provide humanitarian aid and words of support to Georgia, but nothing more. We can also, along with the EU, take a colder attitude toward Russia.

[brianbwb-2009]

"We do have credible reports that Russia has taken actions that violate the cease-fire agreement, and that''s what the president was referring to," she said. "I can''t get into specifics, but we do have those reports and we''re concerned about them..."

The exact same BS we heard about Iraq''s WMDs.

It is safe to assume that there is no credible information at all in their hands, if they wanted information, it is easy to get.

[missingamerica]

I said that wrong...what I meant was:

It is great, is it not, when our leaders bet your future on their assumption that everybody anywhere in the world can be controlled solely through the manipulation of their desire to accumulate wealth, like they can?