Polls Show Landslide Scenario Unlikely

Politico: Most Popular Vote Presidential Landslides Were Clearly Visible By End Of Summer

(The Politico)  This story was written by David Paul Kuhn.

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From the fever swamps of the blogosphere to the halls of academia, there is a chorus of voices who have come to the same conclusion about the presidential election: Barack Obama is going to win in November, by something resembling a landslide.

Yet for all the breathless analysis and number-crunching that has convinced observers Obama is en route to an epic victory, there is one key historic fact that is often overlooked-most popular vote landslides were clearly visible by the end of summer. And by that indicator, 2008 doesn’t measure up.

In five of the six post-war landslides (defined as a victory of 10 percentage points or more) the eventual winner was ahead by at least 10 percentage points in the polls at the close of August, according to a Politico analysis of historical Gallup polls. Over the past week, however, Gallup’s daily tracking poll pegs Obama ahead of John McCain by a margin of 2 to 5 percentage points.

The one exception to the August rule was 1980. Ronald Reagan was trailing slightly in the August polls before surging forward to win by roughly a 10-point margin.

By comparison, the biggest post-war landslides-1964, 1972 and 1984-were signaled by a large, double-digit advantage held by the eventual winner at the close of August.

Lyndon Johnson was trouncing Barry Goldwater in one late August 1964 Gallup poll, 67 percent to 26 percent, taken on the opening day of the Democratic convention. A July poll showed Johnson also winning by a two to one ratio. Johnson went on to win the race 61 percent to 38 percent.

While Richard Nixon in the summer of 1972 was not faring as well as Johnson in late summer 1964, it was nevertheless clear in Gallup’s polling that the incumbent was on his way to a rout that would have been hardly imaginable just four years before.

In mid-July, Nixon was only ahead by about 10 percentage points. But by early August Gallup tracked that his lead had grown to twice that. He went on to win by 23 percentage points, nearly his exact margin in August.

Reagan, in his 1984 re-election campaign, also was ahead by a modest 10 points in August. But he won in the fall by nearly twice that margin.

In the past two months, Obama’s polling has held steady, remaining in a narrow single-digit band.

“There certainly was a definite cockiness that Democrats felt once they regained control of Congress, and I’ve also felt it was a misplaced cockiness,” pollster John Zogby said.

Still, he acknowledged why there was such optimism. “You’ve got a lot of conditions that are similar to 1932 and similar to 1980, a very unpopular president and the party brand badly hurt.”

Only two post-war popular vote landslides have occurred without an incumbent finishing on top-1952 and 1980. They offer conflicting lessons.

In the case of Dwight Eisenhower in 1952, two late August Gallup polls showed him with at least 53 percent of the vote and ahead by at least 15 percentage points. But the race narrowed in polling to a dead heat before Eisenhower pulled off his 11-point win. In his 1956 rematch with Adlai Stevenson, he expanded his margin to a 15-point blowout.

By contrast, in July 1980 Reagan was tied with President Jimmy Carter. One July 22 Gallup poll had Reagan ahead by 2 points. But by late summer Gallup repeatedly reported a tight race. Carter was often leading by several percentage points before Reagan pulled ahead at the end.

For political analyst Charlie Cook, 1980 is the most “relevant race” to look at when assessing the 2008 contest.

“There is a possibility of a blowout [this year],” Cook said. “But we won’t know if it’s going to happen until late.

“I don’t think you see leads in presidential races over 5 points in this day and age. He’s averaged leads of 3 points since spring. The key is that Obama hasn’t closed the sale,” Cook coninued. “It wasn’t until Reagan reached the threshold that he was able to close the sale.”

“The question is,” Cook added, “does Obama ever close the sale?”

Shanto Iyengar, a Stanford University political scientist, notes that several political forecasting models today predict the Democratic candidate winning a clear majority of the vote, a threshold that has thus far escaped Obama in polling. But he adds that those predictions are for a generic Democrat under “normal circumstances” in a year where the Republican Party is in dire straits.

“The real question is why is Obama then underperforming?” Iyengar added. “There is something about Obama that is causing something of drag.” Iyengar believes that something is Obama’s race.

Several pollsters agreed that race is a significant factor in this election, though they count others of roughly equal influence.

“This may sound kind of harsh, but if the Democratic nominee were a white male from a red or purple state, the theory would be dead on that this would be set up, there would be a very, very high probability for a Democratic landslide,” said Brad Coker, the managing partner of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Coker said that, in his view, two factors along with race are anchoring down Obama. He cites Obama’s political inexperience and that “you’ve never had a young guy win by such a large margin, post-war.” Coker added that Obama’s ideology and geography were also factors, though of lesser importance in his view.

But even if Obama built a big lead, it would also not necessarily presage a big win. In 1976, Carter led Gerald Ford in the summer by about 20 percentage points in some polls. Ford closed in by Election Day. Carter barely pulled out a victory.

If nothing else, the contours of the 2008 political environment suggest there is still hope for Democrats who expect nothing less than a resounding victory.

“The conditions are ripe for either a near-landslide, maybe 53 percent, or a landslide,” said the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, though he notes the race looks to be significantly closer.

[usais11]

I would never want to follow someone like Obama into battle%u2026 because I do not think Obama has what it takes to lead anyone into battle. His speech is certainly eloquent, but he lacks conviction, and he strikes me as being much more of a backroom button-pusher than a real %u201Cmover%u201D with a heartfelt sense of purpose. Pretty words come from politicians, but strength comes from competent, passionate leadership. As we have once again witnessed in Georgia, we live in a world that does not play by a rule book%u2026 though many Americans are clearly too complacent to notice. I do hope McCain becomes President, because there in no more important expression of a nation%u2019s will to remain strong than it%u2019s choice of leadership.

[bywill]

It still hasn''t dawned on the MSM media that this type of presidential election has never been run before! They continue to perpetuate this fossil, as the true American. News flash, we have had actors in the WH before and idiots as well! This time around, we will be electing someone of intellect, character and judgment. While of the Talking heads in the MSM are posturing for the best angle, the rest of America is planning the party of the century. Which party you ask? The day when all of the wannabees vacate the premises and the true lovers of our country standup take back our nation! All in favor of better relations around the world, better health care, better air, and just a better president, say, I.
Obama 08!!!

[fox77_99]

John McCain is confused, showing signs of dementia and is mindlessly spouting lies from his sleazy, dishonest campaign. Another four years of Bush would totally destroy our country and this is what the American people would get with McCain. For the sake of our country, we must make sure that Barack Obama is elected President.

[bywill]

Enough said!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWX5u69hmzY

[timofmars1]

I''d like to see Obama win by a landslide in order to put additional pressure on senate Republicans. It''s most likely Dems will control less than 60 percent of the senate. So Republicans can potentially filibuster to block anything from getting done that they don''t like. A landslide victory may help convince at least some of those Republicans that they need to step out of the way and let votes take place, and vote to end filibusters (which requires 60 votes).

[fox77_99]

John McCain is confused, showing signs of dementia and is mindlessly spouting lies from his sleazy, dishonest campaign. Another four years of Bush would totally destroy our country and this is what the American people would get with McCain. For the sake of our country, we must make sure that Barack Obama is elected President.

[greeneyes222]

"John McCain is confused, showing signs of dementia and is mindlessly spouting lies from his sleazy, dishonest campaign. Another four years of Bush would totally destroy our country and this is what the American people would get with McCain. For the sake of our country, we must make sure that Barack Obama is elected President."

And four years of Pelosi/Reid would be good?

You obviously don''t understand how poor the choices on both sides are. That''s why there will be no landslide, it''s the devil or the deep blue sea.

[holdenlitgo]

If McCain wasn''t an angry, confused white man he wouldn''t be where he is today.

[sal-magnone]

What poll exactly is the author talking about-
www.electoral-vote.com

The way I read it Mr. Obama is ahead by 10 EVs (assuming IN goes Red which is HIGHLY likely, 5 if NV goes Red which is very likely).

-SM

[fox77_99]

John McCain is confused, showing signs of dementia and is mindlessly spouting lies from his sleazy, dishonest campaign. Another four years of Bush would totally destroy our country and this is what the American people would get with McCain. For the sake of our country, we must make sure that Barack Obama is elected President.

[zigg114]

I find it hard to believe that the first black candidate for president could possibly win by a landslide. More likely he would loose by a landslide just because he is a minority candidate. African Americans are still less than 20% of this country and so are Spanish. I find it hard to believe the middle of America is running to vote for Obama. I for one hope the best man wins, for me that is McCane and its not because he is white.

[fox77_99]

John McCain is confused, showing signs of dementia and is mindlessly spouting lies from his sleazy, dishonest campaign. Another four years of Bush would totally destroy our country and this is what the American people would get with McCain. For the sake of our country, we must make sure that Barack Obama is elected President.

[random_radar]

According to this article, a white male democratic candidate from a purple state would be headed for a landslide victory by historical standards. In other words, John Edwards would have the presidency locked up if he were the nominee.

No one is working harder to help Obama win than the inept McCain. Despite that, I am waiting to see what the average working class male democrat does on election day. We might be surprised to find that Joe Sixpack never was going to vote for Obama or Clinton. Or maybe we won''t be surprised.

[realpatriot1]

What we have at the end of summer is a national popular vote that''s relatively close with a large amount of undecideds.

What we also have is Obama leading by comfortable margins in states with 273 electoral votes(enough to win) and another 82 electoral votes up for grabs in states where there is no clear leader.

That translates to the fact that a landslide is not in the cards for McCian but is still a possibility for Obama. It''s more than likely they will effectively split these votes and it ill end up something like 313-235 Obama.

[pvperson]

zigg114, you support McCain but can''t even spell his name right, real informed aren''t you?

[lgarcia85]

I have never seen someone with more character questions run for an important position than Oboma. Mr. Powell is a black man that was in an extremely political position for our country. But for some reason did not have all of these CHARACTER ISSUES that this young man Oboma faces. I mean come on Oboma has a website dedicated to denounce or explain all of the rumors about him. To say that these rumors or character questions are solely because people don%u2019t want to see a black president is DUMB and a double standard if you ask me. I say a double standard because if Oboma was white which he actually half is, then the media would have a field day with all of the possible scandals and rumors of character issues that surround him. If some call me racist for saying that then I%u2019m sorry but our country is DOOMED. Racism does not only work one way but in our country only white people can be racist. I%u2019m a minority myself Hispanic, and believe that there are good people and bad people of all colors. If you have good: character, morals, leadership and ambition than your skin color should not matter and I believe for the most part that is true in our society. There are plenty of successful people of all colors maybe some encountered more obstacles than others and maybe that was because of their color but they still achieved their success and proved that any gender and any color can make it in the country. Racism does exist by no means am I saying that it doesn%u2019t.

[element51]

Voltaire777....Your post is more like a prophecy than a post. This election will follow the same path as 2000 and 2004. McCain has already won. We''ll go through all the motions but it''s already a done deal. With the use of rejected provisional ballots, spoiled ballots, uncounted absentee ballots, the purge of "felon" voters and the use of caging lists, the republicans will again perform the miracles of the past. These things were used in Florida, Ohio and New Mexico with outstanding results. And there were confirmed cases where Kerry''s name was not even listed on the ballot. Placement of old unmaintained voting machines in precints that are known to vote heavily democrat was also very effective. There were also many black people who were unable to cast their vote due to long lines and confusion as to where their polling place was located. We are being softened up so we will accept McCain''s win. Anyone who thinks for a minute that the republicans are going to give up the White House is living in a fools paradise. I want Obama to win but I have studied 2000 and 2004 and I know that the same tactics will be used to assure McCain''s win. I know the right wingers will scream that this is not remotely possible but the facts tell an entirely different story. A little research will confirm what I have said here. So get ready...it''s gonna be a wild night.

[shinxy-2009]

Look:

The polls don''t matter because the elections aren''t a national popularity contest. They''re a state-by-state referendum. If you look at the electoral map, Obama is ahead by over 100 delegates. He''s outmaneuvered McCain completely.

This election is not like the others that came before it for many reasons. The pundits have been wrong about almost everything in this race, and they''re going to be wrong here. McCain is going to lose, and lose hard.

[pvperson]

lgarcia85, his name is spelled Obama, with two a''s.
And no, rumors, misstatements and lies are NOT character flaws, they''re rumors, misstatements and lies.

Jeez, did the third grade let out early or something.

[scrushmaster]

At what point do we start burning down large media outlets? This article is aimed at influencing your vote with no specific logic but using simple psych basics. Shame on CBS for the millionth time... Obama is a horrible candidate and most of the smarter voters are just laughing at our choices and wondering what happend to the american brain trust.

[scrushmaster]

At what point do we start burning down large media outlets? This article is aimed at influencing your vote with no specific logic but using simple psych basics. Shame on CBS for the millionth time... Obama is a horrible candidate and most of the smarter voters are just laughing at our choices and wondering what happend to the american brain trust.

[scrushmaster]

At what point do we start burning down large media outlets? This article is aimed at influencing your vote with no specific logic but using simple psych basics. Shame on CBS for the millionth time... Obama is a horrible candidate and most of the smarter voters are just laughing at our choices and wondering what happend to the american brain trust.

[element51]

Igarcia85....You seem to have a problem with Obama because of "character issues." If character is important I suggest you take a look at McCain''s character. His treatment of his first wife after her accident, his running around on her while she tried to stand by his side, his rejection of her so one month later he could marry his rich trophy wife. This man was 43 years old when he did this. Character is formed long before age 43. His Keeting 5 involvement is well known. His comments to his wife in front of others, ****, biotch, and so forth all said not that long ago. His lock step with Bush. All these things are character issues and there are more. Don''t vote for Obama if that is your choice but don''t act like it is only Obama that has issues. So does McCain.

[scrushmaster]

Just did a poll of my 10 employees and when they were asked in a email "Who do you think elects a president the media or the people?" and its about 80+% the media, funny cause this happends to be a law firm...

[pvperson]

"YOU DON''''T WANT ANOTHER BUSH? THEN WHY VOTE FOR OBAMA?"

Wow, the logic of this is mind boggling, white is black, and black is white I guess. Of Course you also called obama the anti-christ, so smart your are not.

McCain is a neo-con that votes republican 95% of the time and he wants to keep Bush policies in place.

Obama is a liberal that votes 95% democrat party line and wants to end Bush policies.

But YOU think Obama is Bush, you are an idiot.

[pvperson]

scrushmaster, your the head of a ten person law firm huh, ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah

[mr2258]

RELAX---McCain will win by a landslide.

[element51]

usais11....I just can''t believe you''re trying to play the "anti-christ card." This is about the stupidist thing I have ever seen. When all else fails, trot out your religion. If you want to continue to believe in fairy tales that''s fine, but don''t try to convince me that this has any validity at all. If the invisible man in the sky does exist and He wants McCain to win then what are you worried about? Your post is childlike and I hope Santa remembers that you have been a good boy.

[rytom64]

The anti-Christ will be a man, in his 40%u2019s, of MUSLIM descent..................
Posted by usais11
--------------------------------------------

I find it hard to beleive in that fairy tale.

[cloud9ine]

The article contradicts itself. It says a landslide was visible end of August. Today is, by my calendar, the 13th, not the 31st. The end of August comes after the convention.

******* non-news articles and analyses

[rytom64]

Element51: You beat me to it !!!!

but I agree.

[element51]

mr2258...Your post is quite comforting to me. You have not posted a single thing yet that has even the slightest ring of truth to it so I must assume that this post is also invalid.

[pvperson]

rytom64, neo-cons will believe in anything, they believed in Bush didn''t they? Twice..........

[noloyalisti]

I hope no one believes these polls. If we don''t have a landslide, the neo con fascists will be able to steal the election for the third time in a row.

Do we really want another slimy neo con man like McSame in their. I know the corporations like Exxon and Chevron who run the government and media want another senile puppet in. But do we?

[pianoman42]

And the Lord said whosoever slayeth (Mc)Cain, vengeance shall be taken on him sevenfold.

[element51]

pianoman42....What? Please provide additional information.

[wdunckelman]

First off, to whoever said the anti-Christ would be of Muslim decent, that''s baloney. Muslims didn''t even exist when Revelation was written. Second, I''m disgusted by some of the idiotic comments people make. Do you honestly believe that Republicans somehow "made black people confused" about where their polling places were, or purposely "created" the hanging chad issue in 200, or only counted the ballots they wanted. I mean, really, are you that stupid? You need to get your head examined. It''s completely impossible for any political party in modern-day America to hoodwink all of society. Wait, except for you. Because you figured it out. Oh and also, don''t bash McCain, he was tortured in a POW camp for 6 years.

[mr2258]

The democrats have nominated an American hating street activist.McCain will win by a landslide.You will just have to wait and see.

[usais11]

Barack Obama threw his pastor Jeremiah Wright under the bus for dissing Obama as just another politician. He will embrace Leah Daughtry, Wright''s female liberation theology doppelganger, at the Democratic National convention for, as DNC Chair Howard Dean''s chief of staff, he has "commissioned" her to orchestrate the convention.


Daughtry is of the same school as Wright, according to the profile the Old Gray *** ran of her on July 20, 2008. As daughter to Herbert Daughtry, Wright''s fellow traveler, Leah Daughtry has preached in her father''s church with its "simple wooden cross hung on a brick wall in the vaulted and sizable sanctuary,... [and b]elow the sanctuary, in the fellowship hall, a banner for slavery reparations proclaimed, "They Owe Us."

[papoubill]

Obama''s "yes I can" refers to his flip flips - promises to the left that are replace by the real policy of pleasing the rich and corporate and GOP. He says he wants unity then he insults the person who got more primary votes than he did - not offerring her the vp but instead giving her 1 of 4 5 minute speeches prior to Keynote on Tuesday - with Bill getting a 2 minute slot om Monday. I have never in 60 years voted other the the Democratic nomunee - but this time since Hill will not be put on the ticket by Obama, I will reject the race card playing, fake progressive and vote for the known values of the experienced McCain. The summary of the above is that I do not trust Obama to keep his promises if Hill is not on the ticket. And lets not get into the fact that after presenting a fake certificate of Birth on KOS, Obama still refuses to present a real Hawaii COB. There will be court cases post the convention that will assert that Obama is not allowed to run - and if Hill is not on the ticket I will help fund those court cases and the McCain campaign. It is hard to believe that after steadfast loyalty to the Democratic Party since Stevenson ''52, I am breaking away - most likely forever - over the "you played or your supporters played or you plan to play the race card" baiting, the sexism, and the taking away of delegates won by primary vote and giving them to Obama that was permitted by the DNC.

[rytom64]

Anyone who votes along party lines really needs to start thinking for themselves.

[element51]

wdunckelman....So you think I''m stupid huh? A stupid person is one who spouts opinions but does not have any command of facts. You think that elections cannot be rigged? You think that black folks weren''t lied to about where their polling places were? You think all this stuff is a lie? You need to learn to read and then do some serious research. There are a vast number of books that document all the things I listed, and then some. And I''m sorry John had to spend all that time as a POW, I wouldn''t wish that on anyone. But the things I listed about his past are true. You can pretend all you want but they are true. And the fact that he was a POW, while unfortunate, does not qualify him to be president. I did not bash the man so don''t make false accusations here. And if you believe everything that the government tells you then you are either a moron or there is no hope for you. How about Bush''s 935 documented lies about going into Iraq?

[mr2258]

ele51--Time will tell.

[mr2258]

It appears that Russian troops continues to attack Georgia.We have to understand,these Russian troop didn''t materialize out of nowhere.It''s clear that Russia wants to control Georgia.

[sammy583]

And it is prophecised that the ignorant one will use the online handle of usasis11, and he will attempt to spread pathetic, inaccurate information quoted from chain email messages.

What is "false hope"? How can hope be "true" or "false"?...When has Obama ever "promised world peace"?...And how do you explain the fact that when the Book of Revelations was written (which is supposedly where this pathetic chain email derives its "prophecy"), the Islamic religion (and therefore, Muslims) didn''t even exist?

Before you go spreading false information contained in chain emails, it might behoove you to read and research them carefully -- but then again, you probably believe every urban myth that reaches your inbox.

[noloyalisti]

It appears that Russian troops continues to attack Georgia.We have to understand,these Russian troop didn''''t materialize out of nowhere.It''''s clear that Russia wants to control Georgia.

Posted by mr2258

WRONG ARTICLE!!!!!!!! The fascist American corporations want McSame. He hates America even more than McBush. But McSame will win because the fascists want a senile, war-monger that they can puppet.

[mrtutto]

Is it just me or does McCain look a lot like Mussolini ?

[wellhell3]

How about Bush''''s 935 documented lies about going into Iraq?


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Posted by Element51 at 01:38 PM : Aug 13, 2008

How about the fact that we listened and believed the democrats screeching for five years about those 935 lies...then we gave them a small majority in Congress to do the job of getting rid of him...

How about the fact that IMMEDIATELY they got to Congress they buried INVESTIGATION AND IMPEACHMENT in the Judicial Committee, not to be seen or brought out and examined in THE WHOLE TWO YEARS!

To me this speaks of complicity, or just flat out propaganda and LIES!

[getcentered]

Politico = Democrat naysayers.

Republican deregulation brought about fraud in mortgage lending and dangerous financial instruments which have collapsed the housing market, leaving a million or more homeowners facing foreclosure. The financial system is in disarray and might collapse from insolvency.

The trade and budget deficits have exploded. The US trade deficit is larger than the combined trade deficits of every deficit country in the world.

The US can no longer finance its wars or its own government and relies on foreign loans to function day to day. To pay for its consumption, the US sells its existing assets--companies, real estate, toll roads, whatever it can offer--to foreigners.

Republicans have run roughshod over the US Constitution, Congress, the courts and civil liberties. Republicans have made it perfectly clear that they believe that our civil liberties make us unsafe--precisely the opposite view of our Founding Fathers. Yet, Republicans regard themselves as the Patriotic Party.

The Republicans have violated the Nuremberg prohibitions against war crimes, and they have violated the Geneva Conventions against torture and abuse of prisoners. Republican disregard for human rights ranks with that of history''s great tyrants.
The Republicans have put in place the foundation for a police state, which they have no problem using against fellow citizens!

We must get the Republicans totally out of power, or we will have no country left for any of us.

[mrtutto]

John McCain has had a whole week to himself and shown gutter quality commercials against Obama and he is still behind in the polls. He is getting real nervous and he certainly can''t stoop any lower, or can he ?
Lets not forget that even though he doesn''t like admitting it, he is still a REPUBLICAN.