Analysis: When A Flip Isn't Always A Flop

U.S. News & World Report's Gloria Borger: How Voters View Changes In Candidates' Positions

(US News)  This column was written by U.S. News & World Report columnist Gloria Borger.

---

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" the economist John Maynard Keynes once asked famously. But in American politics today, changing your mind is a very bad thing to do. It is taken as evidence of weakness. Or confusion. Or worse yet, a sign of pandering for votes (as if that would be a political stunner).

Yet in this campaign, both candidates have flipped. First, John McCain, who reversed an earlier position by calling for an end to the federal ban on offshore drilling as "something we have to do," given the nation's dependence on foreign energy. Then, after criticizing McCain, Barack Obama followed him, allowing that he might consider some offshore drilling, but only as part of a larger, comprehensive energy bill.

Sure, we get it: They're running for president, and $4-a-gallon gasoline refocuses the mind, not to mention the talking points. But what, exactly, is wrong with that? If high gas prices are causing Americans to change their thinking and, in fact, their lifestyles--buying smaller cars, moving closer to their workplaces--why should politicians remain stagnant? After all, as the man said, the facts have changed.

Still, suspicions remain, and with good reason. We've been burned before on this flip-flop business. Consider Mitt Romney--firmly pro-abortion rights (while running for office in Democratic Massachusetts) until he became firmly antiabortion (before running for the Republican presidential nomination). All of which leads voters to the obvious question: How do we decide when a presidential candidate's flips are because of conviction or craven calculation?

Character assessment.Truth is, there's really no clear answer, except this: Voters view these policy decisions through the prism of their overall assessments of a candidate's character. If we think we know who you are--and consider you to be a truth-teller, for instance--we're likely to draw a direct line between our sense of you and your policy choice. So when McCain says he changed his mind about offshore drilling because times have changed, some voters will say, "OK, he's a straight talker," and give him a pass. After all, what was valid thinking when gas was at $2 a gallon may not be sustainable now.

But Obama has a harder task when he flips. He's new, and voters are still scratching their heads about him. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll made that very clear. About 4 in 10 voters said they could not identify with Obama's values or background. So he becomes the mirror image of McCain: While voters see McCain's decisions as an extension of his character, they're trying to figure out Obama's character by looking at his policy decisions. Does his shift on offshore drilling mean he's just another pol who switched after he figured out he's on the losing side of the issue? Or does it mean he really wants to end gridlock in Washington and is truly a different kind of politician? Voters don't know, and they're uneasy about it. "People won't vote for you unless there's a great deal of comfort with who you are," says William Galston, a former domestic policy adviser for Bill Clinton. "They want to see the whole package."

So why not turn the problem into an opportunity? If McCain is telling voters you're just another pol, what about Obama making the pitch that the flip on offshore drilling is really part of a plan to actually get something done in Washington? And, by the way, why not loudly point out that you differ from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on the matter? If voters have any fear of an Obama-Pelosi-Reid liberal axis, that would tell them that's not the way you work. They understand that when majorities abuse their power, nothing gets accomplished. And they want Washington to work.

Instead, as both candidates flip--for the right reasons--their campaigns are running ads that live in a silly parallel universe. One McCain ad blatantly blames Obama for high gas prices, a ludicrous charge. (After all, if Obama hasn't done anything, as they claim, how can he be blamed for everything?) And an Obama ad calls McCain bought and paid for by Big Oil, another total stretch. Then the McCain campaign belittles Obama by saying he wants to solve the energy crisis by having us inflate our tires, please.

And get ready: Each campaign is spending some $5 million on advertising during the Olympics. If you need more clues about a candidate's character, don't expect to find them there.

[rosieod4prez]

Interesting article.

I''m not sure I can buy into Obama being able to say the reason he changed his mind is because he has wanted to get something done in Washington...


With as many changes as he has made to his policies since starting his cmapaign, it would make it sound like the ONLY thing he is willing to do is to agree with whatever.

While I know his base is looking for ''change'', I suspect THAT would not be the kind they are looking for, and he would soon lose his backers.

[broadwayphi]

Obama has been very clear that he will support offshore drilling as part of a compromise plan to jumpstart alternatives to oil.

That is very different than McCain''s "Drill here, drill now."

McCain is the sound bite expert.But that won''t get us off the oil jones.

Obama 08

[samthetvcat]

---"Character assessment"---

I don''t feel like we''re collectively being excessively cynical - I think we''ve actually got Barack and McCain accurately pegged as people who care about winning votes above principle. The one exception with McCain is when it comes to war.

If they were TRULY moving to the center because they had listened to everybody''s points of views, they RESPECTED those views as valuable pieces of information, and then arrived at a decision upon which to base their course of action, their explanations would be more clear, elaborate, and specific.

Barack''s is everywhere and nowhere at the same time, and McCain takes every subject and turns it back towards his POW days.

The good news for both of them is that they''re exactly even in terms of how they''re perceived due to their flip-flops . . .

[obamarama7]

I''d prefer my leaders never change their minds, especially when they''re wrong on something.

The worst thing any leader can do is figure out they were wrong about something and admit it. The only thing worse than this is correcting your mistake.

http://tinyurl.com/6xr3b7

[samthetvcat]

pt 2

He also made his flip-flops worse by refusing to acknowledge that he had changed any positions and then started to insult anbody who pointed out his shifts by saying we weren''t listening, we were cynical, we weren''t good with nuance, etc.

I think the damage has been done because it didn''t make him look practical it made him look like just another politician and it diluted his claim that his stance against the Iraq war was based on principle.

[samthetvcat]

pt 1

---"So why not turn the problem into an opportunity? If McCain is telling voters you''re just another pol, what about Obama making the pitch that the flip on offshore drilling is really part of a plan to actually get something done in Washington?"---

That may work to explain his flip on off-shore drilling, but there were so many others. The flip of Barack''s that first raised the red flags for me was when Barack went from being far-left against the death penalty to far-right and critical of the Sup. Ct. decision striking down the d.p. as punishment for child rapists, no rationale whatsoever.

Like ***? Isn''t the middle-of-the-road position generally pro-dp for murder first degree, special circumstances? Nobody goes from being against the death penalty to embracing it, especially when the crime didn''t even result in death.

And probably different ones struck a chord with different people, like there was a reporter at ABC really up to date on abortion rights who couldn''t make sense of his shift on the late-term abortion exception which Barack suddenly took the position of advocating limiting. And with FISA why didn''t Barack as nominee rally Congress to stick up for privacy rights?

[wogerwabbit]

Everyone (who''s sane) is looking for a change in direction for this country. The Dems may have grand ideas, but I think their plans will be scaled back dramatically when they actually get in office and political realities set in... as happens with every administration. I''m not looking for dramatic change, just taking a step or two back from the edge of the cliff the neocons have brought us to is good enough for me, because I know John McCain will be waving his hat and yahooing as he drops out of the bombay doors with all of us behind him with his warmongering neocon blather.

[broadwayphi]

Posted by SamTheTVCat at 05:01 PM : Aug 18, 2008

Re: Death penalty. That is not really a new stance for Obama. He has been pretty tough on crimes like rape. He''s no bleeding heart on this.

Late term abortion: he oposed past legislation based on how it was written, not on the underlying jurisprudence.

I don''t doubt that both candidates are trolling for votes. But in fact, neither is as bad as they are sometimes portrayed.

I''m voting for Obama because, unlike McCain, he has not flipped into the neo-con camp. Also, unlike McCain, he has not flopped into trickle down, so-called supply-side economics.

You know, that great model that got us arse over head in debt and succeeded in enriching 1% of us at the cost of 99%.

In the end, Obama has the nerve to change course. McCain does not.

And we need to. Now.

[thepitbull13]

Obama''s Change: "I voted against the War in Iraq". He was not in the US Senate to vote against the Iraq War! He was a State Senator. And, when you were in the US Senate you voted to fund it every single time. Kinda like the oppposite of Kerry''s "I voted for the war before I voted againt it." He voted againt it yet in a way he voted for it...hummmm....What I see is a candidate that is trying so hard to be in the middle of the road and politically correct as to not offend anyone that he has no solid stance on anything and has a hard time explaining this when seriouly questioned, and in doing so he is doing some things. For one, leaving the staunch left wing base that got him there. 2 coming accross as an undecisive person which all leaders must be. In a world where comflict is ongoing thoughout the world we need a decisive leader. 3 some folks are seeing him as an empty suit. After see his performance Sat night, I can see why the townhalls are off the table. The presses proverbial 3 am moment was just answered Sat night.

[tothestars2]

what about a(n)

mish mash,
riff raff,
chit chat,
knick knack,
ship shape,
zig zag,
ding dong,
higgledy piggledy,
wishy washy,
easy peasy,
see saw.
Huh? Huh? dont they count, tell us oh great news god.

[samthetvcat]

---"Re: Death penalty. That is not really a new stance for Obama. He has been pretty tough on crimes like rape. He''s no bleeding heart on this."---
Posted by broadwayphi

Can you cite Barack''s past position on specific legislation to substantiate your claim that his toughness on rape without murder has risen to the level of advocating the death penalty as punishment?

Because my claim was based on the fact that he voted against making the murder of cops by gang members automatically death penalty cases, and on the excerpt from his book in which Barack states "I believe there are some crimes--mass murder, the rape and murder of a child--so heinous that the community is justified in expressing the full measure of its outrage by meting out the ultimate punishment"

Alternately if you can''t cite a specific piece of legislation, could you please elaborate on your claim that Barack''s stance is ''not really a new stance''?

Thx.

[samthetvcat]

PS The ''special circumstances'' umbrella is much wider than Barack has defined it - he cited the most extreme cases, rather than say murder of a child, kidnapping and murder, murder of a pregnant woman, gang murder, murder of a cop . . .

[samthetvcat]

Posted by thepitbull13

Wow, that''s a great summary of how basically it sounds like so many of us are viewing Barack . . . you hit the nail right on the head! Great post!

[broadwayphi]

John McCain is lying

Don''t take my word for it

Read this, from that flaming pinko rag, Newsweek:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/154058

Then go to www.factcheck.org

[broadwayphi]

Posted by SamTheTVCat at 11:07 PM : Aug 18, 2008

You just illustrated perfectly why Obama''s stance on the death penalty is nothing new.

You didn''t menytion the late term abortion stance issue, which is not a change for him, either.

Your assertions, as you yourself illustrated, are not accurate on the two points you illustrated.

[broadwayphi]

Posted by thepitbull13

Nonsense. Obama has always stood against the war. Once Bush blundered in, no responsible Senator would leave our troops in harm''s way without funding.

Obama did the right thing by voting to fund our troops. Would you have done differently?

Now, as president, he will continue to do the right thing by getting them out -- responsibly.

There is no way anyone can defend this administration''s bungling in Iraq.

But that''s exactly what McCain, by continuing Bush''s policies, is doing, and would do as president.

And that''s what you''d do if you voted for him.

[samthetvcat]

---"You just illustrated perfectly why Obama''s stance on the death penalty is nothing new. You didn''t menytion the late term abortion stance issue, which is not a change for him, either. Your assertions, as you yourself illustrated, are not accurate on the two points you illustrated."---
Posted by broadwayphi

I didn''t bring up the late-term abortion issue - YOU challenged my take on Barack''s flip-flops . . . and if you''re not going to bring anything to the table other than that you''re right and others are wrong, then you have accept that people are going to prove you wrong.

Score! :p

[samthetvcat]

PS broadwayphi you might not want to be learning your debating techniques from the Barack school of how to lose a 7% lead . . .

[samthetvcat]

PPS So broadwayphi prove you''re not a total lame-@ss and make the case that Barack has always been in favor of the death penalty for child rapists who don''t murder their victims . . .

[broadwayphi]

From www.factcheck.org:

McCain released three new ads with multiple false and misleading claims about Obama''s tax proposals.

A TV spot claims Obama once voted for a tax increase "on people making just $42,000 a year." That''s true for a single taxpayer, who would have seen a tax increase of $15 for the year %u2013 if the measure had been enacted. But the ad shows a woman with two children, and as a single mother, she would not have been affected unless she made more than $62,150. The increase that Obama once supported as part of a Democratic budget bill is not part of his current tax plan anyway.


A Spanish-language radio ad claims the measure Obama supported would have raised taxes on "families" making $42,000, which is simply false.

The TV ad claims in a graphic that Obama would "raise taxes on middle class." In fact, Obama''s plan promises cuts for middle-income taxpayers and would increase rates only for persons with family incomes above $250,000 or with individual incomes above $200,000.


A second radio ad, in English, says, "Obama has a history of raising taxes" on middle-class Americans. But that''s false.

(Factcheck.org is non-partisan, and has articles critical of Obama as well.)

[samthetvcat]

---"McCain released three new ads with multiple false and misleading claims about Obama''s tax proposals."---Posted by broadwayphi

Well, you''re one to talk . . . any luck coming up with ACTUAL FACTS to back up YOUR claims?

[broadwayphi]

Hit a nerve there, SamTheTVCat?

Your quote:
Barack states "I believe there are some crimes--mass murder, the rape and murder of a child--so heinous that the community is justified in expressing the full measure of its outrage by meting out the ultimate punishment"

Any questions, my erudite friend?

Because you seem to be providing all the answers.

[broadwayphi]

Sam The (FOX) TVCat:

Go to www.factcheck.org, a non-partisan web site which also contains material critical of Obama.

That is, if you can swith off the ditto-head radio and the FOX news long enough to get some actual facts.

Have fun. You might find it refreshing.

Go on now, give it a try.

My friend.

[samthetvcat]

Posted by broadwayphi

You do realize the point I was making was that Barack now supports the death penalty for child rapists who DON''T murder - that means they do not murder. They haven''t killed anybody. Their crime is rape - no murder.

That quote above states that Barack believes in the death penalty for those who rape children AND murder. That means they have to rape AND murder the child. Not just rape - they also have to murder the child.

Do you see the difference in those two sentences????? :o

[samthetvcat]

Seriously, do you get that distinction or is there a bit of a comprehension problem there? What''s going on? :o

[broadwayphi]

Posted by SamThe(FOX)TVCat at 12:48 AM : Aug 19, 2008


"I didn''''t bring up the late-term abortion issue..."

Yeah. you did. I answered your assertions. But believe as you will (or are told to.)

My friend.

[broadwayphi]

SamTheTVCat:

Your posts prove the point that Obama is not adamantly oppose to the death penalty. That''s the point -- the only point -- I was making. If you have been trying to make another, you aren''t doing a very good job.

But you''re doing such a good job of proving mine, I will not discourage you from going on.

First, however, I recommend you go to factcheck.org.

Something for everyone.

See you at the polls.

My friend.

[samthetvcat]

PPS By the way, have you been to prison? Just a hunch. Or was it my stance on gang-bangers that struck the nerve?

Either way, I get the sense you''re familiar with sentencing guidelines - generally the rape of a child can get anywhere from like 10 to 25 years with credit for good behavior. Barack''s now saying these people should die. Maybe in your mind being in prison is the same as death (?)

[samthetvcat]

---"See you at the polls."---
Posted by broadwayphi

Oh running away so soon? Just like Barack . . . what are you going to do . . .

[broadwayphi]

Well, SamThe(FOX)TVCat, you seemed like a reasonable guy when you first started posting. But, faced with logical and irrefutable evidence contrary to your views (supplied by you) you have degenerated into name-calling, frat boy potty language.

It is thus with all ditto-heads. Scratch them and out pops a South Park character. (Guess which one?)

Thanks for the, um, piquant discussion, and by all means, trot along, hurry now, to www.factcheck.org, to discover why your hero, Long Gone John McCain is a lying bag of excrement.

Have a great night, and thanks for your help!

My friend.

[samthetvcat]

Actually now that I think about it, McCain ought to make Barack''s softness on gang-banger cop-killers and issue . . . it''s can''t win for him because either he''ll be forced to defend it which most people aren''t going to like, or he''ll flip-flop.

PS broadwayphi, I did mistake Barack''s position on the death penalty because he''s never actually done anything in support of it and I wasn''t aware of that quote in his book. I''d have admitted it to you if you hadn''t been so combative right out of the gate - I really don''t think there was any need, but for sure if you come at me I''m going to come back at you because Barack has in fact changed his stance on rape which WAS the original point you were trying to argue against rather than that Barack was not against the death penalty (based on what you stated in your post)

[samthetvcat]

I call you an ex-con gang-banger and you call me a South Park character? Clearly I was right on target about you . . .

[broadwayphi]

John McCain is a lying bag of excrement, says neutral, non-partisan factcheck.org.

Go!

read!

Learn!

My friends.

[samthetvcat]

---"John McCain is a lying bag of excrement"---
Posted by broadwayphi

He is! I''m critical of Barack, but I''m likely to still support him because I think the competition brings out the best in both candidates and if we don''t speak up their liable to just do exactly what they''re doing now which isn''t so great :(

[broadwayphi]

This just in:

When FOX-addled neocon ditto-heads become frustrated by the truth (even when they inadvertently supply said truth themselves) they degenerate instantly into South Park cartoons.

Try it!

It''s fun!

Just be sure to stand back, ''cause that stuff splatters.

My friends.

"I''m...sailing.....awaaaaaaaaaaaay...."

[broadwayphi]

He is! I''''m critical of Barack, but I''''m likely to still support him because I think the competition brings out the best in both candidates and if we don''''t speak up their liable to just do exactly what they''''re doing now which isn''''t so great :(



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by SamTheTVCat

OK, I take it all back and I love you.

Goodnight.

[broadwayphi]

OK, the character was "Cartman."

But only the early years.

; ))

[broadwayphi]

I''m tired.

Have a good night.

[samthetvcat]

---"OK, I take it all back and I love you. Goodnight."---
Posted by broadwayphi

I''m confident Barack can be like Rocky in Rocky 2 when he wins after being down . . . guess we''re all trying to do the best we can in life - it''s a journey :)

Have a nice evening! :)

[samthetvcat]

pt 2

In the case of child rapists, did Barack consider as a first step advocating life without the possibility of parole? Is it public disgust that''s fueling the desire for the ultimate punishment based on the idea that the victim cannot be made whole again, and if so wouldn''t investing in more victim recovery efforts be a better use of public funds?

Does he still stand by his vote against legislating the death penalty for cop-killing gang-members because it discriminates against participants of criminal enterprises?

I think if people are expecting that kind of acknowledgment of our concerns and a discussion of the relevant issues, and all we''re getting in return are dismissals that we''re ''not listening'', why shouldn''t people think not so great things about Barack in return? Not that McCain''s any better, I guess I just feel like Barack''s earning his labels . . .

[samthetvcat]

pt 1

---"While voters see McCain''s decisions as an extension of his character, they''re trying to figure out Obama''s character by looking at his policy decisions. Does his shift on offshore drilling mean he''s just another pol who switched after he figured out he''s on the losing side of the issue?"---

I''m kind of scared to wade back into this issue, but this is just my opinion so if anybody disagrees with my assessment that''s fine, I just think that there''s a huge difference between the way Barack''s moved to the center and saying that the difference is because he''s going from being a representative to a high-crime area where both the victim and the perpetrator are considered worthy of compassion, to being representative of an entire country which includes not just that group but also people who believe in a hard-fast rule of an eye for an eye such that he''ll respect established law and let majority rules guide new cases so long as it''s within Constitutional confines.

Meaning, death penalty''s fine for all murder one special circumstances already on the book - more expansive than he''s said was acceptable in the past he''s fine with additions like Lacey Peterson murders because homicide is the number one cause of death in pregnant women and late-term unborns are often past the stage of viability so it''s a good blanket rule, etc.

[samthetvcat]

broadwayphi, you were right too about me bringing up the issue of late-term abortions . . . sorry! :)

[mydiatribe]

Flip fopping can also be an early sign of severe mental illness.

Then the question arises who is being prescribed antidepressants, antipsychotics and anti-anxiety drugs? Oy Vey? What''s a voter to think?

[mbcsmith]

Nobama might be credible if he didn''t flip-flop daily. His fourth tax plan is just as bad as the first and the OUTRIGHT LIE he told about accepting public financing was a doozey.

NOBAMA WRONG ON THE SURGE

NOBAMA WRONG ON OIL

NOBAMA WRONG ON TAXES

NOBAMA WRONG FOR AMERICA!

[veteran188]

After the last eight years of mcBush we all know one thing!

If it''s a flip flop it is a republicon!

Like the economy, the war, the dimbed down education system, stick with McSame

Obama is the only real choice for change this time,

and he is just a begining, to get us out of the rat hole of republicon mismanagement and karl rove - jack abramoff government.

[samthetvcat]

PS Just a note that Barack''s position on the death penalty for child rapists puts him to the right of three Republicans (Breyer, Kennedy, Stevens) . . . isn''t it valid for Democrats to want more detail on his thought process when he veers into Clarence Thomas territory?

Because like time and again, the only clear and valid explanation for his shifts ends up being that he stands to gain politically. He''s not bothering to weigh the pros and cons of the alternatives, because if he had he''d be mentioning those . . .

[victor0803]

John Mccain occupies the border area between FLIP and FLOP..................... NO direction, LOW ROAD!

[rytom64]

How insane do you have to be to vote along "party" lines ?