Analysis: When A Flip Isn't Always A Flop

U.S. News & World Report's Gloria Borger: How Voters View Changes In Candidates' Positions

(US News)  This column was written by U.S. News & World Report columnist Gloria Borger.

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"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" the economist John Maynard Keynes once asked famously. But in American politics today, changing your mind is a very bad thing to do. It is taken as evidence of weakness. Or confusion. Or worse yet, a sign of pandering for votes (as if that would be a political stunner).

Yet in this campaign, both candidates have flipped. First, John McCain, who reversed an earlier position by calling for an end to the federal ban on offshore drilling as "something we have to do," given the nation's dependence on foreign energy. Then, after criticizing McCain, Barack Obama followed him, allowing that he might consider some offshore drilling, but only as part of a larger, comprehensive energy bill.

Sure, we get it: They're running for president, and $4-a-gallon gasoline refocuses the mind, not to mention the talking points. But what, exactly, is wrong with that? If high gas prices are causing Americans to change their thinking and, in fact, their lifestyles--buying smaller cars, moving closer to their workplaces--why should politicians remain stagnant? After all, as the man said, the facts have changed.

Still, suspicions remain, and with good reason. We've been burned before on this flip-flop business. Consider Mitt Romney--firmly pro-abortion rights (while running for office in Democratic Massachusetts) until he became firmly antiabortion (before running for the Republican presidential nomination). All of which leads voters to the obvious question: How do we decide when a presidential candidate's flips are because of conviction or craven calculation?

Character assessment.Truth is, there's really no clear answer, except this: Voters view these policy decisions through the prism of their overall assessments of a candidate's character. If we think we know who you are--and consider you to be a truth-teller, for instance--we're likely to draw a direct line between our sense of you and your policy choice. So when McCain says he changed his mind about offshore drilling because times have changed, some voters will say, "OK, he's a straight talker," and give him a pass. After all, what was valid thinking when gas was at $2 a gallon may not be sustainable now.

But Obama has a harder task when he flips. He's new, and voters are still scratching their heads about him. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll made that very clear. About 4 in 10 voters said they could not identify with Obama's values or background. So he becomes the mirror image of McCain: While voters see McCain's decisions as an extension of his character, they're trying to figure out Obama's character by looking at his policy decisions. Does his shift on offshore drilling mean he's just another pol who switched after he figured out he's on the losing side of the issue? Or does it mean he really wants to end gridlock in Washington and is truly a different kind of politician? Voters don't know, and they're uneasy about it. "People won't vote for you unless there's a great deal of comfort with who you are," says William Galston, a former domestic policy adviser for Bill Clinton. "They want to see the whole package."

So why not turn the problem into an opportunity? If McCain is telling voters you're just another pol, what about Obama making the pitch that the flip on offshore drilling is really part of a plan to actually get something done in Washington? And, by the way, why not loudly point out that you differ from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on the matter? If voters have any fear of an Obama-Pelosi-Reid liberal axis, that would tell them that's not the way you work. They understand that when majorities abuse their power, nothing gets accomplished. And they want Washington to work.

Instead, as both candidates flip--for the right reasons--their campaigns are running ads that live in a silly parallel universe. One McCain ad blatantly blames Obama for high gas prices, a ludicrous charge. (After all, if Obama hasn't done anything, as they claim, how can he be blamed for everything?) And an Obama ad calls McCain bought and paid for by Big Oil, another total stretch. Then the McCain campaign belittles Obama by saying he wants to solve the energy crisis by having us inflate our tires, please.

And get ready: Each campaign is spending some $5 million on advertising during the Olympics. If you need more clues about a candidate's character, don't expect to find them there.

[rytom64]

How insane do you have to be to vote along "party" lines ?

[victor0803]

John Mccain occupies the border area between FLIP and FLOP..................... NO direction, LOW ROAD!

[samthetvcat]

PS Just a note that Barack''s position on the death penalty for child rapists puts him to the right of three Republicans (Breyer, Kennedy, Stevens) . . . isn''t it valid for Democrats to want more detail on his thought process when he veers into Clarence Thomas territory?

Because like time and again, the only clear and valid explanation for his shifts ends up being that he stands to gain politically. He''s not bothering to weigh the pros and cons of the alternatives, because if he had he''d be mentioning those . . .

[veteran188]

After the last eight years of mcBush we all know one thing!

If it''s a flip flop it is a republicon!

Like the economy, the war, the dimbed down education system, stick with McSame

Obama is the only real choice for change this time,

and he is just a begining, to get us out of the rat hole of republicon mismanagement and karl rove - jack abramoff government.

[mbcsmith]

Nobama might be credible if he didn''t flip-flop daily. His fourth tax plan is just as bad as the first and the OUTRIGHT LIE he told about accepting public financing was a doozey.

NOBAMA WRONG ON THE SURGE

NOBAMA WRONG ON OIL

NOBAMA WRONG ON TAXES

NOBAMA WRONG FOR AMERICA!

[mydiatribe]

Flip fopping can also be an early sign of severe mental illness.

Then the question arises who is being prescribed antidepressants, antipsychotics and anti-anxiety drugs? Oy Vey? What''s a voter to think?

[samthetvcat]

broadwayphi, you were right too about me bringing up the issue of late-term abortions . . . sorry! :)

[samthetvcat]

pt 1

---"While voters see McCain''s decisions as an extension of his character, they''re trying to figure out Obama''s character by looking at his policy decisions. Does his shift on offshore drilling mean he''s just another pol who switched after he figured out he''s on the losing side of the issue?"---

I''m kind of scared to wade back into this issue, but this is just my opinion so if anybody disagrees with my assessment that''s fine, I just think that there''s a huge difference between the way Barack''s moved to the center and saying that the difference is because he''s going from being a representative to a high-crime area where both the victim and the perpetrator are considered worthy of compassion, to being representative of an entire country which includes not just that group but also people who believe in a hard-fast rule of an eye for an eye such that he''ll respect established law and let majority rules guide new cases so long as it''s within Constitutional confines.

Meaning, death penalty''s fine for all murder one special circumstances already on the book - more expansive than he''s said was acceptable in the past he''s fine with additions like Lacey Peterson murders because homicide is the number one cause of death in pregnant women and late-term unborns are often past the stage of viability so it''s a good blanket rule, etc.

[samthetvcat]

pt 2

In the case of child rapists, did Barack consider as a first step advocating life without the possibility of parole? Is it public disgust that''s fueling the desire for the ultimate punishment based on the idea that the victim cannot be made whole again, and if so wouldn''t investing in more victim recovery efforts be a better use of public funds?

Does he still stand by his vote against legislating the death penalty for cop-killing gang-members because it discriminates against participants of criminal enterprises?

I think if people are expecting that kind of acknowledgment of our concerns and a discussion of the relevant issues, and all we''re getting in return are dismissals that we''re ''not listening'', why shouldn''t people think not so great things about Barack in return? Not that McCain''s any better, I guess I just feel like Barack''s earning his labels . . .

[samthetvcat]

---"OK, I take it all back and I love you. Goodnight."---
Posted by broadwayphi

I''m confident Barack can be like Rocky in Rocky 2 when he wins after being down . . . guess we''re all trying to do the best we can in life - it''s a journey :)

Have a nice evening! :)

[broadwayphi]

I''m tired.

Have a good night.

[broadwayphi]

OK, the character was "Cartman."

But only the early years.

; ))

[broadwayphi]

He is! I''''m critical of Barack, but I''''m likely to still support him because I think the competition brings out the best in both candidates and if we don''''t speak up their liable to just do exactly what they''''re doing now which isn''''t so great :(



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Posted by SamTheTVCat

OK, I take it all back and I love you.

Goodnight.

[broadwayphi]

This just in:

When FOX-addled neocon ditto-heads become frustrated by the truth (even when they inadvertently supply said truth themselves) they degenerate instantly into South Park cartoons.

Try it!

It''s fun!

Just be sure to stand back, ''cause that stuff splatters.

My friends.

"I''m...sailing.....awaaaaaaaaaaaay...."

[samthetvcat]

---"John McCain is a lying bag of excrement"---
Posted by broadwayphi

He is! I''m critical of Barack, but I''m likely to still support him because I think the competition brings out the best in both candidates and if we don''t speak up their liable to just do exactly what they''re doing now which isn''t so great :(

[broadwayphi]

John McCain is a lying bag of excrement, says neutral, non-partisan factcheck.org.

Go!

read!

Learn!

My friends.

[samthetvcat]

I call you an ex-con gang-banger and you call me a South Park character? Clearly I was right on target about you . . .

[samthetvcat]

Actually now that I think about it, McCain ought to make Barack''s softness on gang-banger cop-killers and issue . . . it''s can''t win for him because either he''ll be forced to defend it which most people aren''t going to like, or he''ll flip-flop.

PS broadwayphi, I did mistake Barack''s position on the death penalty because he''s never actually done anything in support of it and I wasn''t aware of that quote in his book. I''d have admitted it to you if you hadn''t been so combative right out of the gate - I really don''t think there was any need, but for sure if you come at me I''m going to come back at you because Barack has in fact changed his stance on rape which WAS the original point you were trying to argue against rather than that Barack was not against the death penalty (based on what you stated in your post)

[broadwayphi]

Well, SamThe(FOX)TVCat, you seemed like a reasonable guy when you first started posting. But, faced with logical and irrefutable evidence contrary to your views (supplied by you) you have degenerated into name-calling, frat boy potty language.

It is thus with all ditto-heads. Scratch them and out pops a South Park character. (Guess which one?)

Thanks for the, um, piquant discussion, and by all means, trot along, hurry now, to www.factcheck.org, to discover why your hero, Long Gone John McCain is a lying bag of excrement.

Have a great night, and thanks for your help!

My friend.

[samthetvcat]

---"See you at the polls."---
Posted by broadwayphi

Oh running away so soon? Just like Barack . . . what are you going to do . . .