7 Worrisome Signs For Obama

Politico: Democratic Strategists Worry Campaign May Turn McCain's Way

(The Politico)  This story was written by Glenn Thrush.

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A few weeks back, Time magazine was musing that John McCain was in danger of sliding from “a long shot” to a “no-shot.” Around the same time, a hard-nosed former Hillary Clinton insider declared the race “effectively over” thanks to the McCain campaign’s ineptitude, the tanking U.S. economy and Barack Obama’s advantages in cash, charisma and hope. And Obama, up by three to six points nationally, was about to leverage a much-anticipated trip to Iraq, Afghanistan and Europe into a pre-convention poll surge.

Instead, his supporters are now suffering a pre-Denver panic attack, watching as John McCain draws incrementally closer in state and national polls - with Rasmussen’s most recent daily national tracker showing a statistical dead heat.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has been privately enumerating her doubts about Obama to supporters, according to people who have spoken with her. Clinton’s pollster Mark Penn recently unveiled a PowerPoint presentation red-flagging Obama’s lukewarm leads among white female voters and Hispanics - while predicting a five-point swing could turn a presumed Obama win into a McCain landslide.

“It’s not that people think McCain will win - it’s that they are realizing that McCain could win,” says Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown, whose surveys show tight races in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. “This election is about Barack Obama - not John McCain - it's about whether Barack Obama passes muster. Every poll shows that people want a Democratic president, the problem is they’re not sure they want Barack Obama.”

Obama’s aides point to the stability of his small national lead, say they aren’t worried about his summer stall and think his numbers will improve when voters begin tuning in to the conventions.

“This is a country that is looking for a fundamentally different direction and John McCain offers nothing but the status quo,” said spokesman Bill Burton, adding that he wasn’t “losing any sleep” over his boss’s rough patch.

The campaign’s confidence may turn out to be justified but two weeks prior to the national convention there are more than a few worrisome signs for Obama. Here are seven:

1. Race. “The idea that Obama was going to win in a blowout was always preposterous,” says former Nebraska senator and onetime presidential hopeful Bob Kerrey, an Obama backer. “A big piece of this, of course, is whether white people are going to support a black guy… If [Obama] is a tall, skinny white guy named Paul Jones it's a different story.”

Obama is running nearly neck-and-neck with McCain among white voters in most polls, a major cause for optimism considering that John Kerry and Al Gore lost the white vote by 17 and 12 points respectively. Among whites, he does well with women, the affluent and college grads but fares poorly among low-income earners and Catholics - key swing groups that handed Hillary Clinton stunning blowouts in West Virginia and Kentucky.

How much does his race factor into tightening contests in Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Minnesota and Ohio? Nobody knows - and that’s the problem.

A huge challenge for Obama, insiders say, is simply determining how much skin color will matter in November. Race is nearly impossible to poll - no one ever says “I’m a racist” - and no campaign wants it revealed they are even asking questions on the issue.

“It’s the uncertainty that kills me - we know it’s going to be factor, but how big a factor?” asks a Democratic operative with ties to the Obama camp. “How do you even measure such a thing?

Adding to the jitters: GOP surrogates like New York Rep. Pete King have vowed to make Obama’s relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright a enterpiece during the homestretch.

2. Obama’s strength in Virginia may be overhyped. His chances of ending the Democrats 44-year losing streak in the commonwealth are pretty good - thanks to the explosive growth of the liberal D.C. suburbs, and a 147,000 spike in voter registration sure to benefit Democrats. But Obama’s aides privately concede his odds in Virginia are probably no better than 50-50 and that the state is far from a lock-solid hedge if he loses Ohio and Florida.

3. Michigan’s in play for McCain. In the year of the downturn, the hard-hit upper Midwest should be prime Obama country. Instead it’s a potential minefield. Obama is still ahead by two to five points here - similar to margins of victory enjoyed by Gore and Kerry in the last two presidential contests- but McCain has quietly crept up over the past month and could vault ahead if he anoints ex-Gov. Mitt Romney. Simmering tensions between predominantly-black Detroit and its white suburbs could hurt Obama. And McCain’s surrogates were handed a gift in the jailing of Obama supporter Kwame Kilpatrick, Detroit’s mayor.

“Watch Michigan -- the Democrats think they've got it but they don't,” says Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown, a longtime Michigan observer. “Obama should be killing [McCain] there, but there's a lot more racial tension in Michigan than in other states.”

Obama also hasn’t pulled away in other Democrat-friendly neighboring states, watching leads in Wisconsin and Minnesota erode over the last month.

4. Bad times could be good for McCain. If anger helps Democrats, fear advantages Republicans. A growing number of Democratic strategists worry that some swing state voters may opt for McCain if the economy veers from merely awful to downright terrifying. The typical political calculus - that bad economic times will deliver the White House to Democrats - may not hold if people start viewing the downturn as, essentially, a national security crisis that can’t be entrusted to a novice. And that was McCain’s underlying message in his Paris Hilton ad: Bank failures, soaring gas prices and plummeting house values are forms of economic terrorism and he’s an all-purpose anti-terror warrior.

“John McCain is a known quantity,” says Bob Kerrey, who thinks Obama will ultimately prevail. “You don't look at John and say, ‘Who the heck is he?’ he's a veteran, he's a guy who got pretty banged up in Vietnam. He can deal with crisis. There's some uncertainty about Senator Obama.”

The good news for Obama, of course, is that McCain - who infamously admitted he “never understood” economics - is loathed by unions, was somnambulant at the dawn of the housing meltdown and still gropes for a coherent economic policy that doesn’t include the words “offshore drilling.” But he doesn’t have to win the argument, just reinforce doubts about Obama with wavering swing state voters. The Illinois senator still enjoys a major edge on the economic issues, but his 20-point June lead on the who-can-best-fix-the-economy question slipped to a 17-point edge in July, according to the Pew Research Center.

“Obama wins on the economy,” said Guy Cecil, Hillary Clinton’s field director during the primaries. “But it will be interesting to see if McCain’s able to close the economic gap.”

5. Where have you gone, Ross Perot? Bill Clinton, the lone two-term Democratic president since FDR, wouldn’t have been elected if independent Ross Perot hadn’t siphoned 19 percent of the vote in 1992. Former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr, staging an indie bid from McCain’s right, has little cash and doesn’t seem to be a factor in competitive states.

6. The Legacy of LBJ, Jimmy and Bubba. Barack Obama would have been a trailblazer no matter what - but the Deocrats’ trail to the White House has been remarkably narrow since 1960, accommodating only southern whites with border-state strength: Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. (Add Al Gore if you’re counting the popular vote.)

7. Americans may want divided government. Some Democratic operatives think a possible landslide for their party in congressional races could backfire on Obama.

“Fairly or not, folks think he’s pretty liberal and nobody wants a pair of Pelosi’s running things,” says a New York-based Democratic consultant.

Adds Bob Kerrey: “The country's still pretty divided… people may want a divided government. They want change but I'm not sure that the Democratic agenda has the support of a majority of Americans.”

[ihave4rugratshelp]

correct me if i''m wrong, but didn''t hrc get more of the popular vote than bho in the primaries? oh wait a minute, that only matters in florida, oh sorry my bad!! this would be a completely different presidential race if the dnc would play by the rules they expected the republicans to play by in 2000--instead, the dnc uses the superdelegate to choose--why do you guys bother voting in the primary if you don''t even get to choose your party''s candidate? doesn''t the dnc think the average democratic voter is intelligent enough to choose a candidate?? and you guys complain about republicans--at least they don''t have howard dean telling them who to vote for--and be honest, he is--otherwise, hrc would be accepting the nomination in denver instead of bho. unless this is all a big conspiracy cooked up by pelosi, reid and others like some of hrc''s supporters believe it is.

[ihave4rugratshelp]

all of the obots(that''s obama supporters for those who don''t know), will not accept anything less than their fearless leader winning by a landslide--any kind of an honest appraisal of him is grounds for hysterical rhetoric and foaming at the mouth--get a grip obots, he doesn''t have a commanding lead in the polls, and bob kerry isn''t commiting herasy by stating things that more people than you wish to believe are thinking--not everyone in this country is programmed to obama''s "change", especially when it comes down to the fact that the vast majority of voters in this country have no clue what change he is spouting off about--and this is the vast majority that will be voting come november--and if the democratic agenda does not have the support of the majority of americans, what on earth makes you think your candidate will? reality check obots!! this will only get worse as november gets closer. and considering the bang-up job the democratic-led and democratic-majority congress has done--i wouldn''t be counting on any kind of a democratic landslide.

[blkpresident]

Besscannon,

Sorry your lil'' girly Hillary had her *** handed to her by the Obama Shuffle, but enough with the sour grapes and simply move on. Terrorist don''t lob softballs or play powder-puff football.

[alanrobisch]

Kerrey still trash talks the Dems chances. Thanks a lot Bob. No wonder it took 12 years to regain the Congress, you people with your trash talk directed at fellow Dems. Start trying to help your party win elections.


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Posted by torkelson3 at 04:01 PM : Aug 12, 2008
+ report abuse
I think you are overeacting to an honest assessment of Obama''s strength''s and weaknesses. Face it it is apparently go to be a close election and when its this close all bets are off about who will be the winner.

[torkelson3]

With friends like Bob Kerrey, the Dems need no enemies.

The Republicans stick together. You don''t hear one iota of criticism directed towards McCain from conservatives anymore. They''ve all come on board, even though they were livid at McCain a few months ago.

Kerrey still trash talks the Dems chances. Thanks a lot Bob. No wonder it took 12 years to regain the Congress, you people with your trash talk directed at fellow Dems. Start trying to help your party win elections.

[kmccliment]

Live at 3:30pm et:

Georgian president quotes John McCains support for the country of Georgia and calls for Russia to halt. Georgian president quoted John McCain not Barry Obama. The international community in a crisis does not recognize Obama. They do respect and support John McCain.

McCain 08

[torkelson3]

GOP strategy - let''s drop 1,000 stink bombs, and hope one or two hit their mark.

No ideas, no vision, out of gas, bankrupt policies.

[torkelson3]

New York Rep. Pete King has vowed to make Obama%u2019s relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright a centerpiece during the homestretch.

Yeah, the GOP has nothing else to talk about, no ideas, no vision. Nothing about why McCain should win, just why Obama should lose.

Nattering nabobs of negativism.

[suzyku]

Hillary should have been the nominee?!! What a joke, have you bothered to read the memo''s from her completely nasty and mismanaged campaign? She was incapable of making decisions or managing her people, just imagine how well she would have run(down) this country! NO HILLARY EVER!!!!!
OBAMA ''08

[suzyku]

The most worrisome thing is that CBS is still running this out of touch article! CBS'' katie couric, the non journalist, has already shown herself to be biased against Senator Obama, CBS has already lost much credibility just by hiring that moron and they just continue to pile it on to their brand of tabloid (not) journalism!

[lucasnico]

Is it time for shaved ice and body surfing in Hawaii? Sometimes Mr. President %u201Cto be%u201D vacations might be interrupted. Calling for %u201Ccalm, U.N. action and %u201Crestraint%u201D from both sides%u201D seems totally out of context. The Russians are dropping bombs, jets are firing missiles and killing people, it seems that %u201Crestraint%u201D Mr. Obama seems an odd and weak response. Your first 3:00am call and you FAILED.

Posted by max0010

or, he could be at the Olympic games hitting a volleyball around and still blowdrying his hair.... oh, wait, that''s the current jackass

[terrorislamx]

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[besscannon-2009]

Should have made Hillary the nominee instead of being blinded by Obama''s white light from heaven. Obama, the preacher, is dramatizing the public so he can fleece them for the posh lifestyle he is looking forward to as he takes over the White House. Can''t you see how he is showing it already with his O-Force One and the expensive trip to Hawaii for him, his family and 14 others? He is like all the other preachers who fooled their congregation so they could fleece them for a life of luxury for himself and family? Who do you suppose is paying for this fine vacation? I imagine it is all the lavish campaign contributors. What candidate takes such a vacation, right after a extensive trek to Europe just a couple weeks before the convention? I think it is very telling of what we can expect from a President Obama.

[johnbush2-2009]

Obama has proven nothing except that he is a fraud. He has flip-flopped on every issue that only an imbecile would believe what he says.

[bigdog3565]

Obama is not a muslim. He would be the best man for ths country, if he was not labeled as a black man. We here in Mississippi(one of the most racial states)thinks the worst of blacks. Most White people, especially in Mississippi, would rather this country go thru another 9/11 espisode than to have a man such as Obama. This is ashame for Mississippi that is still stuck in the past. Obama has proven to America that he can lead this country. He also has proven that he will represent all Americans, regardless of their race. Obama will shine in November and become the next President of the United States. Obama will make America, including Mississippi, proud to be an American. No doubt the best man for the job. WAIT AND SEE!!

[talkingham]

Four negative slanted articles on CBS web today and not a word about McCain. He simply flies under the radar and the only news show that ever takes him to task is the Daily Show. Yellow-belly neocon press.

[johnbush2-2009]

In a December 30, 2007 memo written on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, Mark Penn writes to his fellow Clinton staffers that after the caucuses, if Obama "is riding a high we will have to take him down."

He runs through a series of potential attacks against Obama -- he has taken a bunch of liberal positions that make him unelectable, has been inconsistent on Iraq, has flip-flopped on issues, and voted present a number of times in the Illinois legislature instead of taking a position.

Then, playing out a number of scenarios, Penn writes that if they come out of Iowa and it''''s a two-way race with Obama, "on Friday we do a media interviews (sic) and basically say that he is unvetted, discuss his ever-changing positions. Release the tapes. Create immediate pressure that deprives him of oxygen.''''

"Release the tapes"????

What tapes?

ABC news

Are those tapes going to be released??? I think Hillary should release those tapes if they show that Obama is unfit to be President.

[johnbush2-2009]

Obama is a fraud. He is pandering to all interest groups to win a few more votes. Obama is a disaster.

zerato, you must be a black or muslim. Decent people have stopped supporting Obama.

[max0010]

Is it time for shaved ice and body surfing in Hawaii? Sometimes Mr. President %u201Cto be%u201D vacations might be interrupted. Calling for %u201Ccalm, U.N. action and %u201Crestraint%u201D from both sides%u201D seems totally out of context. The Russians are dropping bombs, jets are firing missiles and killing people, it seems that %u201Crestraint%u201D Mr. Obama seems an odd and weak response. Your first 3:00am call and you FAILED.

[zerato-2009]

''''ll take the same policies and preserve our Constitution.

Posted by WellHell3

Mcbushes policies have used the constitution as coaster in the white house.