LOS ANGELES, Aug. 11, 2008
Will "Dark Knight" Be Biggest Draw, Ever?
Expert Assesses Its Chances Of Eclipsing "Titanic" And "Star Wars" At Box Office
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'Dark Knight' Holds No.1 Perch
According to Paul Dergarabedian from Media By Numbers, the latest Batman film is poised to surpass "Star Wars" in movie grosses, but may not beat "Titanic." Julie Chen asks him why.
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Christian Bale as Bruce Wayne/Batman in "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)
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BEHIND THE MASK
"The Dark Knight"
Meet the actors, test your Bat-sense and follow the Caped Crusader through the decades.
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Photo Essay
"Dark Knight" Premieres
Show's stars turn out and Heath Ledger's spirit hovers over black-carpet event
It's already the third-highest grossing movie ever, behind "Star Wars" and "Titanic."
Will the Batman sequel ever overtake those two blockbusters?
On The Early Show Monday, Media By Numbers president Paul Dergarabedian sized up its prospects.
"Titanic" earned $600.8 million domestically a decade ago. "It took several months to get there, but did it," Dergarabedian observed. "That has been a record that has stood the test of time. (For) ten years, it's held onto that record."
"Dark Knight" has been taking no prisoners, he pointed out, "knocking off every other record: fastest sprint to 200 million, 300 million, 400 million in just 24 days.
"This film is now up to $441.5 million. Probably, by the end of the week, it'll beat 'Star Wars,' which is at 461, to become the second-highest grossing movie all-time -- in less than a month. That's really amazing.
"Will it beat 'Titanic?' I don't think so. I think it'll ultimately be at somewhere around $520 million domestically. (That's) still amazing, and to do it this fast, I've never seen anything like it."
However, experts note that the numbers reflect today's higher admission prices, and "The Dark Knight" doesn't appear to be on course to approach "Star Wars" or "Titanic" in terms of actual number of tickets sold. Taking inflation into account, "The Dark Knight" would need to pull in about $900 million to match the number of tickets sold for "Titanic" and about $1.2 billion to equal "Star Wars."
What's behind the success of "The Dark Knight," beyond it being, simply put, a good movie?
People seeing it more than once is "a big part of it," Dergarabedian said. "The repeat business. And it's become a cultural phenomenon. That made 'Titanic' such a huge hit back in 1997 and '98 when it was playing for all those months. And Dark Knight, with (the late) Heath Ledger's performance, it's kind of a legendary performance, it's shrouded in mystique, and that is really getting people talking, and they're going back to see it over and over again to relive that performance by Heath Ledger."
"Dark Knight" is "transcending" its genre, Dergarabedian says: "The comic book genre is not for everyone, or superhero movies. But this movie is transcending the genre. It's a great crime epic. So, I'm encouraging people who aren't really into this kind of movie to go out and see it because it's so great. Although, by this point probably everyone's seen its, it seems like."
Studio execs' revised expectations seem to fall in line with Dergarabedian's.
"The Dark Knight" has far outdone initial projections. Dan Fellman, head of distribution for Warner Bros., says he would've been happy if the movie simply exceeded the $205 million domestic total of its predecessor, "Batman Begins." But it should top out at $510 million to $520 million, Fellman says.
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Under The Radar, 07.11.09
LOTR: Return of the King- $377,027,325 ($435,690,000 adjusted)
Harry Potter: Sorcerer''s Stone- $317,575,550 ($395,863,900 adjusted)
Source: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm
Dark Knight beats both of those, even when you adjust their box office grosses to reflect inflation.
I love how people make up random statistics on internet message boards! It''s like having a swordfight with balloon animals--so easy to burst.
-I think you might be talking about the Japanese market being at 18k, but certainly not the US in the mid-90''s.
Yes, what short term memories we have, mate!
However, we have a classic movie house in town that runs movies on a B schedule. Tickets are $2, soda and popcorn, $5. We go there instead. We can wait. For the cost of one movie ticket with all the crowds and unnecessary hype, we can do it all and forego the sound effects of any other movies next door.
1 - go to matinee shows (they''re cheaper)
2 - go to the very first show of the day (AMC has a great promotion where movies are $5 or $6)
3 - skip the pop and popcorn (you''re too fat anyway)
4 - buy discounted movie tickets from your company (they''re much cheaper than matinee prices)
5 - stick to bargain theaters (movies will always end up there anyway after a couple months of release)
6 - enjoy Netflix movies in the privacy of your own home (but don''t forget the surround sound and big screen, the way most movies should be seen)
7 - save "event" movies for the big screen only (which include most summer blockbusters)
Now, onto the article. THE DARK KNIGHT is definitely one of the best movies I''ve seen all year, but I still can''t stop talking about the masterpiece that is WALL-E. Those are my two favorites so far for 2008.