The Decline Of Suburbia?

Experts Predict Exodus From Far-Flung Neighborhoods Back To Urban Living

(CBS)  The promise of the suburban dream is what brought Nichole Cinaglia and her daughters to a neighborhood more than 30 miles outside of Sacramento, California.

"I mean I think it's everybody's dream to own a home and then have their kids grow up in their home, you know, like they used to so many years ago," Nichole says.

Sixty years ago, cheap gas and new highways helped fuel suburbia's rapid rise, creating a new American utopia. But as CBS News correspondent Ben Tracy reports, the triple threat of falling home values, empty nesters returning to the city and sky-high gas prices is driving suburbia to the brink.

Some developments are left half built while other homes look abandoned. Demand for suburban housing is dropping so fast that a recent study predicts that by 2025 there will be a surplus of 22 million large-lot homes in suburban areas.

Nichole can't afford the $800 in gas she burned each month commuting to her job, so she's selling her house for less than half what she paid for it.

It sounds hard to believe, but some experts are now predicting that this could be the beginning of the end of suburbia -- that far-flung neighborhoods could be tomorrow's slums.

Author James Howard Kunstler has been predicting the decline of the suburbs for more than 15 years.

"I think the project of suburbia is over," he says.

Kunstler says housing far away from job centers won't survive.

"We've put so much of our national wealth and even identity into the idea of suburbia that we can't imagine having to let go of it or substantially change it," he says.

But change is building in Sacramento. The region adopted a back to the future approach known as "smart growth": high-density development in walkable neighborhoods near job centers and transit.

In the past three years, projects with apartments, condos and town homes increased 533 percent, while the number of subdivisions with large homes dropped 21 percent.

"The rapid rise in gas prices over the last six months has made that general direction this region has decided to go look like an especially good decision," says Mike McKeever of the Sacramento Area Council of Governments.

McKeever doesn't believe suburbs will disappear overnight, but says buying on the far edges of a region is now an economic gamble.

"That's a risky bet. It might pay off but it's a risky bet," he says.

Nichole Cinaglia plans to rent near her job. But she still thinks about the life she used to have.

"I don't miss the commute, but I miss the idea," she says. "I miss that it was mine."

A dream abandoned miles away now is beginning to fade.

[timdgrim]

Sad, that Our American way of life is about to change drastically and a lot of people just don''t see it coming. Greed, Overpopulation, Bad Immigration Laws, and an overall moral decaying culture has had it''s day. Too bad, soon we will get to see first hand how the rest of the world lives.

[jchapline]

Decline, maybe, but there''s a lot of room for change in suburbia in response to economic changes. If a suburb is associated with a job center, or a few job centers, then bus transit is an option. Telework is an option. Lifestyle choices more familiar to rural people could become more common in suburbia -- like going to a full-service grocery store once a month rather than once a day. Gardening and canning. And bringing commerce to suburbia could help -- a corner grocery, a small hardware store -- services people need, just as they need schools close by.

[whitemale08]

..."smart growth", "...next to job centers"? huh?

You must be talking about moving closer to Walmart...lol

You''re joking, right?...lol

[vietnam21]

We need to start another war somewhere and ramp up the military/industrial complex. That will add a ton of jobs! and legalize prostitution eh....

There is a new option besides moving back to the city. (There really is not enough room for everyone). Suburbanites can work remotely, either from home as a telecommuter or from a Remote Office Center. Remote Office Centers are a fairly new concept. A Remote Office Center leases individual offices, internet and phone systems to workers from multiple companies in shared centers located around the suburbs. Workers can find information (including locations) about Remote Office Centers at a free web site:

http://www.remoteofficecenters.com

Moving everyone back to the city is not a viable option for most of America. Rather than move people to the workplace, it makes more sense to move the workplace to the people. Many people can work remotely as long as they have decent facilities available to them. Not everyone can work remotely, but those who can not, will benefit from less people on the road and by lower demand for fuel because of all the remote workers.

[jchapline]

Timdgrim: the suburban housing model was a bad idea, unsustainable. It''s not sad to me to see the U.S. finally rethinking that.

[jchapline]

Timdgrim: the suburban housing model was a bad idea, unsustainable. It''s not sad to me to see the U.S. finally rethinking that.

[bretster7]

zoe2006 said,
This recession and mortgage crisis is the failed policies of the Republicons, Bush/McCain Administration.

So zoe, one can assume that you would attach just as much blame to the tech bubble bursting and the recession of 2000 on the failded policies of Clinton/gore right?
No, I did not think so. I entertain reading your post outlining specific, and I mean specifc actions that Bush took solely on his own that has caused what is historically a cyclical event.
BTW, did you hear that the value of farmland has increased more since 2000, than in any other time in history? In fact where I live it is almost double what it was 8 years ago. Wonder why that is?

[unmunificent]

What? CBS writes an article on the decline of suburbia and you all step in line. CBS MUST be right. We''re all doomed. It''s the end of the world! Why? Because an idiot at CBS thinks so? Jesus, folks, snap out of it! Wah Wah Wah! This article is speculative BS! And top it off, we have the McSame/Bush''s fault crowd that like to make their cry..... YOU LIBERAL PUKES MAKE ME SICK! Go cry a river! America will always survive!

[wardoglrs]

What can you expect when we have Central Bankers at the helm. these people run the nation along with the Re pubs and Dem''s making laws in there favour.

We were warned of this from the forefathers and you didn''t listen. The Government has robbed you and yet you say nothing of them and you vote the very people in that are against you. You should read
www.lewrockwell.com this site will show you why your wealth is going to the dogs.
You wealth in paper dollars is a lie and the tax on a tax called inflation is eating your wealth.
you can blame the politicians but i assure you that your to blame cause you voted them in and wont look at the truth

[condumbism]

Posted by unmunificent
YOU LIBERAL PUKES MAKE ME SICK! Go cry a river! America will always survive!

YOu Southern Nazis make US libs sick. YOu are all the scum of America, so get the heck out of our country, or DIE!

[jydavis1]

suburbia is finished

[bretster7]

dumbassism said,
YOu Southern Nazis make US libs sick. YOu are all the scum of America, so get the heck out of our country, or DIE!


Why do you spastic libs think that all Republicans reside in the south. It was the southern DEMOCRATS that were against the civil rights act of 1965, lead by a certain Tennesee senator with the last name of Gore.

DIE, wow that is so tollerant of you. LOL

[Syndicate]

Wealthy people use inflation to their advantage. For example go borrow a half million and buy a house. You have to pay it back but you get to pay it back over a few decades. So you are spending that half million today in todays dollars and paying it back with worthless future dollars. I bought a house so I''m hoping for a lot of inflation.

[cbsfan73]

"Experts Predict Exodus From Far-Flung Neighborhoods Back To Urban Living"

Yeah, people will be waiting in line to get back in the ghetto.

[marshall_nee]

It was always dependent upon cheap and abundant energy, but nothing lasts forever. Kunstler pwns BTW.

[cbsfan73]

"In the past three years, projects with apartments, condos and town homes increased 533 percent, while the number of subdivisions with large homes dropped 21 percent."

All signs of overpopulation. Too many breeders out there.

[marshall_nee]

Too many breeders out there.

Posted by cbsfan73 at 08:36 PM : Aug 07, 2008

________________________

I believe they are called ''useless eaters''.

[cbsfan73]

"Author James Howard Kunstler has been predicting the decline of the suburbs for more than 15 years."

If you predict something long enough, you will eventually get it right.

[cbsfan73]

"Demand for suburban housing is dropping so fast that a recent study predicts that by 2025 there will be a surplus of 22 million large-lot homes in suburban areas."

Good, we can tear them down and plant trees.

[standlee5]

Nichole can''t afford the $800 in gas she burned each month commuting to her job, so she''s selling her house for less than half what she paid for it."

Who gets to eat that loss?

[marshall_nee]

Doomers will label this as the onset of ''Peak Civilization''.

[standlee5]

But change is building in Sacramento. The region adopted a back to the future approach known as "smart growth": high-density development in walkable neighborhoods near job centers and transit."

yeah, well people are still going to want a yard, a fence, and an outdoor barbque and will be willing to drive 15-20 miles to have it.

[piercetheval]

...''sfunny but s friend of mine and I were discussing this not three hours ag. He livesd in downtown Suckapiemento, Sackatomatoes or Bag Town as it was affectionately know until the ''70s, and I live in the Eastern Sacramento county. Many people here in the suburban areas of Sac. Co. commute all the way to the San Fransico Bay area for jobs, mostly blue collar but also a good many white collar jobs. Homes are going on the auction block left and right. Welcome to the De-francization of America my fellow citizens. You''ve all but lost your jobs and now you''re losing your land.
GET MAD!

[smirk5]

That telework idea is great until you realize that nearly any job where telework could work can also be done offshore for a cheaper price. And, even if there were more jobs spread around inefficiently in suburban enclaves, plenty of waste from the suburban lifestyle (lawnmowers, water usage, waste of fossil fuels due to needlessly large homes, etc.) will still be there.

[piercetheval]

...SUPPORT YOUR LOCAL ''COTTAGE INDUSTRY''
WHEN YOU SUPPORT YOUR FELLOW ''COMMON AMERICAN'' YOU TAKE BACK AMERICA!

[beehive21-2009]

Your all saying ,it''s OK for Big Oil to bend you over a barrel ? Why not Nationalize Big Oil, hang all the Greedy pigs, who are stealing your future for $$$. Some sick people rape some steal $$$, time to grab the Bull by the nuts and take back America.

[smirk5]

standlee5,

"yeah, well people are still going to want a yard, a fence, and an outdoor barbque and will be willing to drive 15-20 miles to have it."

If fuel gets expensive enough, the reality of what people can have will supersede what people want to have. I want a private jet. Unfortunately, I have a cash flow problem that supersedes that.

[newview08]

You''re not going to recognize this country in 30 years. The great Roman Empire lasted 1200 years, and then crumbled from within. America will do it in less than 300 years in the exact same way, the Goths and the Vandals are already here and holding public office. The only difference is that the Romans didn''t have YouTube and FaceBook to showcase their stupidity on the way down. But on the bright side, we''ll keep future Anthropologists entertained their entire careers. This just another example of how evil greedy elected people have sold us down the river, and we should all be very angry about it.

[piercetheval]

...Hey Beehive, I agree; after all, the oil is a NATIONAL RESOURCE! Why should a few slick entrepreneurs [we all know the history of the oil biz] be allowed to gain so much wealth and power at the expense of the nation?
Doesn''t the wealth of the natural land belong to all of us and our prosperity?

[j62kd4b]

Forget the price of oil - we Americans are sick of traffic jams, wrecks, fighting semis for the highway - France is now utilizing their canals (built in 1800s) to ferry Renaults & container cargo alongside tourist cruise boats.
Henry proved that you can "fool" the American public twice!

[Meg003]

Decline, maybe, but there''''s a lot of room for change in suburbia in response to economic changes. If a suburb is associated with a job center, or a few job centers, then bus transit is an option. Telework is an option. Lifestyle choices more familiar to rural people could become more common in suburbia -- like going to a full-service grocery store once a month rather than once a day. Gardening and canning. And bringing commerce to suburbia could help -- a corner grocery, a small hardware store -- services people need, just as they need schools close by.

Posted by jchapline

A thoughtful post. Maybe the decentralization of stores will take place. I still remember when my little town had everything you needed. Then the Big Box stores in a nearby town made it cheaper to drive further to save a little. Now gas prices may make the family stores come back to small towns and suburban areas. These would bring new jobs where profits stayed home. Maybe local cottage industries will come back.

[jeffstersf]

My sister, who still lives where we grew up, in the vast, gross, car-dependent hell that are the suburbs of Atlanta, visited me in San Francisco a few years back and thought it was "weird" that the houses were so close together and that I didnt have (or need) a car. I remember thinking that it was actually "weird" that Atlantans spent hours a day in their cars and had to get in one to get a loaf of bread. She also didnt know her neighbors, and I would wave and talk to folks all over my city.

What is "normal" and healthy is and always has been dense locals, which foster true community, not these boxes made of ticky-tacky that consume vast resources.

[jeffstersf]

My sister, who still lives where we grew up, in the vast, gross, car-dependent hell that are the suburbs of Atlanta, visited me in San Francisco a few years back and thought it was "weird" that the houses were so close together and that I didnt have (or need) a car. I remember thinking that it was actually "weird" that Atlantans spent hours a day in their cars and had to get in one to get a loaf of bread. She also didnt know her neighbors, and I would wave and talk to folks all over my city.

What is "normal" and healthy is and always has been dense locals, which foster true community, not these boxes made of ticky-tacky that consume vast resources.

[jeffstersf]

My sister, who still lives where we grew up, in the vast, gross, car-dependent hell that are the suburbs of Atlanta, visited me in San Francisco a few years back and thought it was "weird" that the houses were so close together and that I didnt have (or need) a car. I remember thinking that it was actually "weird" that Atlantans spent hours a day in their cars and had to get in one to get a loaf of bread. She also didnt know her neighbors, and I would wave and talk to folks all over my city.

What is "normal" and healthy is and always has been dense locals, which foster true community, not these boxes made of ticky-tacky that consume vast resources.

[jeffstersf]

My sister, who still lives where we grew up, in the vast, gross, car-dependent hell that are the suburbs of Atlanta, visited me in San Francisco a few years back and thought it was "weird" that the houses were so close together and that I didnt have (or need) a car. I remember thinking that it was actually "weird" that Atlantans spent hours a day in their cars and had to get in one to get a loaf of bread. She also didnt know her neighbors, and I would wave and talk to folks all over my city.

What is "normal" and healthy is and always has been dense locals, which foster true community, not these boxes made of ticky-tacky that consume vast resources.

[jeffstersf]

My sister, who still lives where we grew up, in the vast, gross, car-dependent hell that are the suburbs of Atlanta, visited me in San Francisco a few years back and thought it was "weird" that the houses were so close together and that I didnt have (or need) a car. I remember thinking that it was actually "weird" that Atlantans spent hours a day in their cars and had to get in one to get a loaf of bread. She also didnt know her neighbors, and I would wave and talk to folks all over my city.

What is "normal" and healthy is and always has been dense locals, which foster true community, not these boxes made of ticky-tacky that consume vast resources.

[jeffstersf]

My sister, who still lives where we grew up, in the vast, gross, car-dependent hell that are the suburbs of Atlanta, visited me in San Francisco a few years back and thought it was "weird" that the houses were so close together and that I didnt have (or need) a car. I remember thinking that it was actually "weird" that Atlantans spent hours a day in their cars and had to get in one to get a loaf of bread. She also didnt know her neighbors, and I would wave and talk to folks all over my city.

What is "normal" and healthy is and always has been dense locals, which foster true community, not these boxes made of ticky-tacky that consume vast resources.

[jeffstersf]

My sister, who still lives where we grew up, in the vast, gross, car-dependent hell that are the suburbs of Atlanta, visited me in San Francisco a few years back and thought it was "weird" that the houses were so close together and that I didnt have (or need) a car. I remember thinking that it was actually "weird" that Atlantans spent hours a day in their cars and had to get in one to get a loaf of bread. She also didnt know her neighbors, and I would wave and talk to folks all over my city.

What is "normal" and healthy is and always has been dense locals, which foster true community, not these boxes made of ticky-tacky that consume vast resources.

[jeffstersf]

sorry about the multiple posts. And "local" should have been "locale". I''m on a strange computer and thought it wasnt taking my posts.

[piercetheval]

...Thank you MEG001 for mentioning the "Cottage Industries".
There is always a simple solution to seemingly complex problems. As our great christian avatar once professed the answer to the worlds problems lies in understanding and implementing the spirit of brotherhood.
...Support your local brothers and sisters and support "Cottage Industry".

[marshall_nee]

sorry about the multiple posts. And "local" should have been "locale". I''''m on a strange computer and thought it wasnt taking my posts.

Posted by middlecrank at 09:10 PM : Aug 07, 2008

_________________________

Yup beware of the lag!

[smirk5]

piercetheval,
"There is always a simple solution to seemingly complex problems."

Ok, say the problem is setting up a manned mission to the moon. What''s your simple solution to this complex problem? I''m betting there isn''t always a simple solution to a seemingly complex problem.

[deacon20081]

Sorry but coming from a small town and ranching community this nonsense of everyone move to the city is just that, nonsense. I guess it would be easier to control the masses that way huh?

[newview08]

Where''s the American spirit that built this country? This is pathetic. Are we all just fat, lazy, stupid, morons as some countries say? Where are those people with grit that refuse handouts, and drive on though the worst of times with determination? Those are the people I want to see again, not these spineless leaders who are afraid to offend somebody. I read these blogs and it makes me sick, I want to vomit. The great people of this nation sound utterly defeated and hopeless. Comparing the USA to France, how embarrassing. Afraid to drive our cars, afraid to cut a tree, afraid of the weather, on and on and on. We''re in a very sad state, and need some real anger from deep down to find ourselves again. Disgusting, shameful.

[marshall_nee]

I guess it would be easier to control the masses that way huh?

Posted by deacon20081 at 09:23 PM : Aug 07, 2008

Sure is, we''re on the long and sad road to Socialism I fear.

[ubrew12]

newview08 said: "Comparing the USA to France, how embarrassing. "

France has done so much right in the last 30 years. Nevertheless, our solution should be to go with alternative energy along with nuclear.

All forms of energy can be used to create hydrogen fuel (thanks to MIT just recently, the conversion ratios are going to be MUCH higher than they were previously). So, fuel shouldn''t be a problem in the future. Don''t sell that house in the suburbs just yet! In the nearterm, its definitely a problem. Until we get an energy policy in this nation that involves more than a chant of ''drill, drill, drill'', we''ll be selling ourselves short. (sorry, there''s only 20-30 years worth of oil left in the whole world. Its time to move on).

[piercetheval]

...Smirk5, the answer is astral projection!

[liberty_1776]

I live in the suburbs of a mid-sized city that is riddled with countless pockets of violent crime and generational poverty. Of course, there are some nice neighborhoods that have not built walls and gated their communities, but they are few and far between. Another problem is that the elected officials (elected by the violent criminals and poorest citizens) do nothing to solve the city''s problems, while they raise taxes, increase their own salaries, and annex more county taxpayers annually. My wife and I are seriously considering moving away from all big cities. We have discussed taking huge pay cuts, moving to a small town, and ensuring that our children will not grow up in a neighborhood where they cannot feel safe playing in the front yard. So, this article seems ridiculous to me. But I can understand how the concept of moving back to the city might apply to people who live on the outskirts of a city that is not full of violence.

[newview08]

Last post, ever. No more computers, cell phones, or HDTV for me. I''m going to get out there and make a difference. I''m going to vote and get to know my neighbors, not hide behind a computer like some coward and complain about our nation''s problems fruitlessly. What you''re doing now IS the problem. Best ''O luck fellas.