Obama Has Advantage Among Working Poor

Washington Post: Poll Shows Obama With Clear Lead, But Doubts And Pessimism Reign Within Key Group

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Michael D. Shear and Jon Cohen.

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Democratic Sen. Barack Obama holds a 2 to 1 edge over Republican Sen. John McCain among the nation's low-wage workers, but many are unconvinced that either presidential candidate would be better than the other at fixing the ailing economy or improving the health-care system, according to a new national poll.

Obama's advantage is attributable largely to overwhelming support from two traditional Democratic constituencies: African Americans and Hispanics. But even among white workers -- a group of voters that has been targeted by both parties as a key to victory in November -- Obama leads McCain by 10 percentage points, 47 percent to 37 percent, and has the advantage as the more empathetic candidate.

Still, one in six of the white workers polled remains uncommitted to either candidate. And a majority of those polled, both white and minority, are ambivalent about the impact of the election, saying that no matter who wins, their personal finances are unlikely to change.

"It's not my main concern in life," said Mary Lee, 50, a factory worker in rural Kentucky. "I know how politics is. I really don't think it's going to matter either way."

More than disaffection drives these workers, according to the new national poll by the Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University.

Their politics are shaped partly by their lot in the current economy: These voters are among the most severely hurt by rising prices, and many are insecure about their finances and lack jobs with basic benefits. Nevertheless, many are optimistic about the future even as they express deep suspicion about government.

The new poll included interviews with 1,350 randomly selected workers 18 to 64 years old who put in at least 30 hours a week but earned $27,000 or less last year. As a group, they are somewhat less likely to be Republicans than all adults under age 65 and are also less likely to be registered to vote. As many call themselves conservatives as liberal, and nearly four in 10 said their views on most political matters are "moderate."

The group, which accounts for nearly a quarter of U.S. adults, gives the Democrat the nod both as the more empathetic candidate and as the one who more closely shares their values. And while many express no opinion about who would do more to improve the economy or health care -- or the voters' finances -- Obama has the clear edge among those who picked a favorite on these core issues.

Obama's standing with the white workers runs counter to an impression, dating from the primary season, that he struggles to attract support from that group. McCain advisers have said for months that they think the Republican can win a significant share of those voters because of Obama's performance in the spring.

The survey suggests it will be difficult, but not impossible, for McCain to increase his appeal. Whereas Obama underperforms congressional Democrats by six points among low-wage whites -- 53 percent would prefer that the party control Congress -- McCain has a seven-point edge over congressional Republicans.

Sixteen percent of the white workers polled chose neither Obama nor McCain, saying either that they have no opinion or that they support someone else or that they do not plan to vote.

Ruth Haskins, 64, the city clerk of Billings, Mo., said she is "scared about the younger generation running the country" and is solidly "on the fence" about the election.

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In May, as the race between Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton raged on, McCain adviser Charlie Black told reporters that the campaign would reach out to working-class white voters, in part because of Obama's difficulties wresting such voters from the Clinton camp.

"Senator Obama doesn't appear to have the ability to hold the traditional Democratic coalition together as well as Mrs. Clinton might," he said at the time.

In an interview last week, Black said the campaign still plans to target working-class white voters, particularly by appealing to them on economic and energy issues. Jobs and gasoline prices are "very big to people in that income range," Black said.

Nearly two-thirds of the white workers surveyed want the government to make lower gas prices a "top priority," something McCain pitched earlier this year in advocating for a suspension of the federal gas tax. One respondent was particularly clear on this point: "I'll vote for whoever can bring the price of gas down," said Brian Levesque, 25, a social worker from Lansdale, Pa.

But slightly more, seven in 10, say government should focus on helping people like them find more affordable health insurance, a core component of Obama's campaign. Just over four in 10 favor placing a top priority on tax cuts or on creating jobs through an expansion of public works projects.

Overall, the survey suggests that Obama's economic appeals have the most resonance with white workers who are under the greatest financial stress. He leads by 19 percentage points among those white workers who feel "very insecure" financially; that is more than double his advantage among those in the group who feel better off.

McCain leads among those who say they have advanced over the past seven years, but it is a much smaller group -- only 17 percent of low-wage white workers. Obama has the edge among those who say they have stayed about even over that time period.

An issue of acute importance to low-wage workers -- the impact of illegal immigration -- is one that divides workers in the poll about evenly: Forty-nine percent said illegal immigrants take jobs from legal residents, and 47 percent said they do not.

Nearly six in 10 white and black workers said they think undocumented workers take jobs away from those here legally; seven in 10 Hispanics disagreed. (Nearly half of the Hispanic workers interviewed in this poll are not U.S. citizens.)

International trade -- and its impact on increasingly scarce jobs -- is another issue that may prove a flash point for workers in the fall campaign.

Half of those polled said growth in trade has made things worse for the country; far fewer, only about two in 10, said it has had a net benefit, and a similar percentage said they are unsure. But a majority also said trade has not changed their lives one way or the other.

As is the case with immigration, majorities of white and black workers said trade has done more harm than good, while most Hispanics disagreed.

"One thing I keep seeing is a lack of wherewithal to tackle the tough issues like health care, illegal immigration," said Stephanie Dayton, 51, a bookkeeper in Tucson. "It's sort of like overhauling the tax code. If there was an easy way to tackle it without conflict, they would have done it already. At some point it takes some backbone to get it done. Get some backbone and decide what you stand for."

McCain's biggest challenge is among minority workers.

Among the African Americans polled, 92 percent chose Obama as the candidate more concerned with their problems; not a single black respondent said so about McCain, although 1 percent said "both do." Hispanics also sided with Obama on that question, favoring him by more than 40 percentage points as the more empathetic candidate.

The poll was conducted by conventional and cellular telephone June 18 to July 7, among a random national sample of low-wage workers. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta and assistant polling analyst Kyle Dropp contributed to this report.

[nkgilb]

Why is John McCain so bitter and angry. with all his negative campaign ads against obama, he is still behind in the polls and that is because he has nothing positive about himself or plans for working poor Americans, and that is why he goes negative. l would not want an angry old man for president.

John McCain is too angry/bitter to be president.

[truthvsobama]

Like Barack et al, it takes you guys: Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta, Kyle Dropp, Michael D. Shear and Jon Cohen over two pages to reluctantly show the bias of your poll. Most poor do not have cell phones. Nor was this poll done days but months ago. Registered Democrats like myself are getting sick and tired of Obamanites taking on the skin of unbiased pollsters.

[truthvsobama]

Like Barack et al, it takes you guys: Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta, Kyle Dropp, Michael D. Shear and Jon Cohen over two pages to reluctantly show the bias of your poll. Most poor do not have cell phones. Nor was this poll done days but months ago. Registered Democrats like myself are getting sick and tired of Obamanites taking on the skin of unbiased pollsters.

[spinster2]

The working poor is a non-factor in this election. For one thing, they don''t vote in any significant numbers. The REAL story is women.

Any student of politics knows that whoever carries the women''s vote will end up sitting in the whitehouse and Obama can''t seem to rein them in. I''m not sure if it''s because of the way the media treated Clinton or the fact that Obama is black but if something doesn''t change, he''s in trouble.

[spinster2]

The media is driveing this election just as any other but you have to give the GOP props on one thing, they used their head and picked their candidate on electability regardless of what their base wanted.

On the other hand the democrats used their heart and chose their candidate based on the way he could make them feel during a speech regardless of the fact that his record portrays anyone but a uniter or reformer. (Heck, that''s McCain''s record)

Now the prediction that the Clinton tried so desperatly to relay through a media that spanked them everytime they even hinted at it is starting to materialize. Everyone expected this campaign to tighten down the stretch but it''s looking more and more like McCain doesn''t merely have a chance, he may end up being the front runner very soon.

[concerns47]

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/obamas_oil_spill.html

Obama campaign lies, check the facts

[johnbush2-2009]

Poll: McCain''s attack strategy paying dividends

McCain''s attack strategy paying dividends as he pulls even with Obama in key poll

Associated Press | AP
Aug 3, 2008

John McCain will be leading by double digits by next week.

It''s happening. Americans are uniting to kick Obama''s shiny black @ss back to the senate.

[johnbush2-2009]

Obama is an elitist. He cannot relate to the problems faced by the average American.

Working class Americans support John McCain.

[kansas1946]

"Working poor?" How can you be "poor" if you are working?

Posted by Peterp111 at 01:58 PM : Aug 04, 2008
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LOL. And they are calling Obama arrogant? What a question.

[starleo146]

Obama Has Advantage Among Working Poor
Washington Post: Poll Shows Obama With Clear Lead, But Doubts And Pessimism Reign Within Key Group

Yep, the media keeps putting doubts in the minds of many Americans, you know the media they have to run everything

[alanrobisch]

All of the above advances brought to you because of UNIONS!


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Posted by ofbyfor1 at 07:25 PM : Aug 04, 2008
+ report abuse
From about 40-50 yrs ago Philadelphia teachers who work for a school district which has chronic short falls in budgets cannot seem to build new schools gets significant aid from the state govt yet the teachers get free health insurance and very good pensions and the Unions are invariably unwilling to take any cuts.

[alanrobisch]

It makes no difference to me that consumer goods have not gone up significantly because I haave no money left after paying my monthly bills to afford any consumer goods.


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Posted by olderthnadam at 07:56 PM : Aug 04, 2008
+ report abuse
Why are you working at the job? Can''t find a better paying one? How much education did you get?

[alanrobisch]

Hellooo-- a lot of people who have college educations are out there in the work force as ''''underemployed'''' people. You idiots think it''''s a big joke until it happens to you. This ''''I got mine'''' attitude truly svcks and is completely un-American.


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Posted by ofbyfor1 at 07:10 PM : Aug 04, 2008
+ report abuse
under employed can they feed themselves can they have a roof over their head and do they health insurance. If they have these things then their needs are met. I have no concern or interest in this group. We have become a nation of wimps that think we are entitled to a big house large screen television cable broad band access etc.

[olderthnadam]

"Working poor?" How can you be "poor" if you are working?

Posted by Peterp111 at 01:58 PM : Aug 04, 2008
+

You have obviously never had to work for $8.00 pr/hr or less. Wages for the average hourly wage earner have gone up by less than 25% in the last 28 years while the cost of housing has doubled, utilities haave doubled, the cost of a new car has tripled, and the cost of gasoline has gone up 800%. Working 40 hours per week at $8.50 pr/hr housing consumes 45% of my income, utilities 20%, gasoline 18%, and groceries 12% totaling 95% and this is of my gross income not my take home pay. And I drive a 12 year old car and live in a small two bedroom house built in the 1920''s and never eat out. It makes no difference to me that consumer goods have not gone up significantly because I haave no money left after paying my monthly bills to afford any consumer goods.

[alanrobisch]

Sounds more like a McCain ad to me. Why does he have such a problem saying what he''''s FOR?


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Posted by ofbyfor1 at 07:28 PM : Aug 04, 2008
+ report abuse
he has but the media tends to ignore it because they are liberal obama is a better story they hope obama will win and obama they think he will win. Note story above the most clear cut thing I can say is that the election is in a virtual dead heat. Yet two stories on this web site would lead you to believe that obama has a significant lead

[ofbyfor1]

Since you Liberals cannot find any positive points about Obama, I guess that leaves you with bashing McCain.

Posted by DemWatcher at 07:25 PM : Aug 04, 2008

Sounds more like a McCain ad to me. Why does he have such a problem saying what he''s FOR?

[ofbyfor1]

UNIONS SHOULD BE OUTLAWED!

and everyone in the US needs to know that the unions support illegal invaders hoping for new members if the illegals are amnestied. I always thought that the unions supported American workers My bad.

Posted by RandaIDS at 05:36 PM : Aug 04, 2008

Oh YEAH! Let''s go back to the pre-union days!!!

You know, the days before we had:
-40 hour work weeks
-minimum wage
-bans on child labor
-VACATION TIME!
-etc, etc

All of the above advances brought to you because of UNIONS!

[demwatcher]

"Could not see any working person voting for a remote and detached person like McCain. Like Bush, he hasn''''t got a clue what we face in our daily lives. They were both born to privileged families, never had to work for a living, were too lazy to study at the expensive colleges they attended and have pretty much been failures in their private lives. McCain even has the distinction of dumping his disabled wife for a trophy millionairess, showing a complete lack of decency. These kinds of people cannot comprehend what it is like to have principals and to have to work for a living. I cannot see decent hard working people wanting anything to do with them.

Posted by InTheShade at 07:13 PM : Aug 04, 2008"

Since you Liberals cannot find any positive points about Obama, I guess that leaves you with bashing McCain.

I understand that, and it does not bother me or the rest of America. Obama''s plunging poll numbers prove that his ''media-darling'' status is coming to an abrupt end, along with his dreams of becoming President.

You Liberals picked the MOST UNQUALIFIED candidate from all that were offered to you, and now it is biting you on the arse.

Liberals have proven what completed and utter idiots they are by nominating Obama.

Oh, wait! You DID NOT pick Obama! With Florida AND Michigan losing their votes, NO ONE achieved the required number to be the Democrat candidate.

Your candidate will be picked by the (so-called) Super-Delegates!

Liberals REALLY ARE stupid.

[ofbyfor1]

Obviouslly, Obama can''''t do no wrong, but what is wrong is the people who follow him like sheep. When he falls off the cliff, so will you, in case you don''''t know.

Posted by Ariel133 at 04:03 PM : Aug 04, 2008

The ''sheep'' would be those of you who want 4 more years of the same failed policies. At least 3/4 of the people feel we are badly off track recently. You want to ''stay the course''?

[demwatcher]

Yeah, the economics-challenged Obumbadumba has already promised them $1000 fuels credit. Which he will (supposedly) have the oil companies pay for through higher taxes. Which the oil companies will pass on to the consumers.

Obama, The Great and Ignorant Wizard of Doh!