Va. Goes From Red State To Swing State

Washington Post: State That Hasn't Voted Dem For President Since 1964 Is Up For Grabs In 2008

(Washingtonpost.com)  "We run a very disciplined, methodical, structured organization," said Trey Walker, McCain's Mid-Atlantic director. "We are doing exactly what Republican campaigns have done in the past."

What is different, Walker said, is that because Virginia has become a haven for Republicans, the party does not have close to the presidential-campaign structure that it has in standard swing states such as Ohio, where "all they have to do is add water every four years."

"We've got to get to a level of organization that really hasn't been done before here," he said.

J. Kenneth Klinge, a Republican strategist in Fairfax County, said he is encouraged to see his pary trying to rebuild its grass roots. What worries him is Obama's effort to register new voters.

"It is no doubt they are going to register anything that can walk, talk and chew gum at the same time, so that will give them an advantage," he said. "Anyone who they have registered, they will then go grab them by the back of the scruff and take them out to vote."

The lines of engagement are clear across the state's highly variegated landscape. To win, Obama must rack up big numbers in populous Northern Virginia, which has become increasingly Democratic as it has boomed over the past decade.

In 2004, John F. Kerry managed to win Fairfax County, where one in seven Virginians lives. Obama wants to increase his margins there and in the Democratic strongholds of Arlington and Alexandria, while also claiming the outer suburbs of Loudoun and Prince William counties, which Webb and Kaine won but Kerry lost. Obama swept the region in the state's primary.

Republicans are not ceding the region. The national party has paired Walker with Nick Meads, the former campaign manager for Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), who will be helpful in identifying Republican-leaning voters in Northern Virginia. Del. David Albo (R) said that his southern Fairfax district still leans Republican and that McCain can carry it, which would make it hard for Obama to reach 60 percent in the county, as Kaine and Webb did.

Greg Werkheiser, a Democratic activist who ran against Albo in 2005 and helps head up Obama's efforts in that part of Fairfax, counters that the district is solidly behind the Democrat.

"I would say eight in 10 doors we go to are either strong, self-identified Democrats who are for Obama or frustrated moderate Republicans who don't believe McCain represents change from Bush," he said.

Obama will also seek to win big in Richmond and try to split the vote in its suburbs, which Kaine did in 2005. Though Bush won Chesterfield County with 63 percent of the vote in 2004, the county ran out of ballots during February's Democratic primary because so many voters turned out.

Obama also must carry Hampton Roads, the heavily populated and politically diverse area around Norfolk and Newport News that is dominated by African Americans, military personnel and religious conservatives.

The Obama campaign is optimistic, saying it will capitalize not only on high black turnout but also on military families disaffected with the war in Iraq. "If you're a military family, you might just want to support the one who is going to bring your families home," said Rep. Bobby Scott (D), who represents the area.

Democratic strategist Dave "Mudcat" Saunders, a Roanoke native, doubts Obama's chances in Hampton Roads, saying he will instead need to pick up votes in the rural Southside, southwest Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley, a strategy that propelled Warner in 2001. But while Obama can count on high black turnout in Southside, he fared poorly in the primary in Appalachian areas.

Added to this complex landscape are two wild cards. Democrats are hoping that Obama will benefit from the Senate race of Warner, who is heavily favored to beat former governor Jim Gilmore.

"This is a unique situation, where there is both an up-ticket effect and a down-ticket effect," Kaine said. "The Obama effort on turnout is going to have a positive effect . . . that will help Mark, and I also think Mark will perform so well and organize so strongly in some traditionally Republican parts of the state that that will help [Obama]."

Then there is the possibility of a candidate picking a Virginian as his running mate. Kaine is believed to be on Obama's short list, and Rep. Eric Cantor (R) has emerged as a possibility for McCain.

"I suspect most Virginians kind of like the notion that a Virginian can be in key leadership nationally," Kaine said. "How that translates into any effect on Election Day, I don't know."

For now, though, such prospects are secondary to the confrontation on the ground, where there appears to be much more ferment on Obama's side. Late last month, a roomful of volunteers in Arlington made calls looking for supporters to come out for a Democratic canvass that drew 2,000 people statewide.

One, Nolan Fox, moved to the area after graduating from the University of Florida in May because he wanted to help Obama and thought Virginia would be even more closely fought than his home state. "We're going to need to get massive turnout in Northern Virginia," he said.

The energy level was a bit lower a couple of days later at McCain's Crystal City office, where 50 volunteers gathered before going to knock on doors.

"You're going out canvassing for who?" said Walker, trying to rally the troops.

"McCain," replied some.

Walker tried for a louder response. "You haven't had your coffee yet," he said.

Among the most eager to get to work was Warren Robinson, 23, of Alexandria. He relishes Virginia's competitiveness, despite its implications for McCain's chances. "Personally, for me, it's exciting, because Virginia Republicans can make a difference," he said. "But for other Republicans, it's a concern."

[bfjones666]

Says a lot about the Republican party in general and John Sydney McCain III in particular. And don''t even look south to Florida. Obama didn''t even campaign there and John McCain''s once 22 point lead is now -2. That''s right, Rasmussen has Obama UP by 2 in Florida. Poor Johnny. If you can''t get those white folks in Virginia and those old folks in Florida, who you got left?

[nkgilb]

The republican party has ruined America both home and abroad and John McCain says he is willing to continue with those kinds of policies.

Economically, we are unstable and less secured, people are loosing their homes, unemployment rate have gone high, gas is now a big problems for commuters, food prices are so high and yet Americans still want to vote in McBush? we deserve the president we vote for.

please America vote smart this time around, vote Obama!

And beside, why is John McCain angry and bitter constantly even through all is negative campaign ads, he comes off so angry to me? is it because he has nothing positive to run on, so he goes negative?

[trishab4]

He could have visited them by himself without all of the fan fare, but he decided not to WHY; because he wants to bath in his own glory. He is what he is, if you just look. Wait until he makes his trip to Rome, your last wakeup call.
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Posted by alien_view at 09:20 AM : Aug 05, 2008

-The real Devil Liar935Bush himslef went there and there was nothing but signs of quiet... Actually Ben16 is Bush''s brother in devilism. They had a lot of invasion and war discussions. They sealed their treaty over with a glass of red blooded wine... check it out, you fairytale lunatic believer!

[trishab4]

He could have visited them by himself without all of the fan fare, but he decided not to WHY; because he wants to bath in his own glory. He is what he is, if you just look. Wait until he makes his trip to Rome, your last wakeup call.
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Posted by alien_view at 09:20 AM : Aug 05, 2008

-The real Devil Liar935Bush himslef went there and there was nothing but signs of quiet... Actually Ben16 is Bush''s brother in devilism. They had a lot of invasion and war discussions. They sealed their treaty over with a glass of red blooded wine... check it out, you fairytale lunatic believer!

[mycommentspg]

Study the real issues and the real candidates, your choice in November will be easy. http://mycommentspage.blogspot.com/

[alien_view]

Everytime I hear Obama talk, he is for change and talks about being the leader the WORLD is looking for. I wonder if he is not the anti-christ. I started worrying about this after his remarks on his European trip and that fake prayer, in the wall just to get more press attention and then the cold shoulder to our wounded troops. He could have visited them by himself without all of the fan fare, but he decided not to WHY; because he wants to bath in his own glory. He is what he is, if you just look. Wait until he makes his trip to Rome, your last wakeup call.

[concerns47]

Just look into Obama when talking about an love child, maybe no but his background before government service is different than projected, ask people who really know him but don''t want to talk about him. Who exactly on Wall Street offered him a high paying job that he turned down, has anyone come forward to say we wish we hired him.

[concerns47]

Flip flopping = shifting strategy, reassessing strategy, adjusting strategy

How come everyone uses flip flop when they speak of McCain but shifting strategies when it is Obama?

[concerns47]

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/obamas_oil_spill.html

[mcvent]

Obama a man who, upon securing the Democratic nomination, said, %u201CI am absolutely certain that generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal%u201D;

Only the Messiah the Anoited one could do this our Savior Obama is like God or Jesus parting the seas, healing the world.

He put the whole world in his hand in put whole wide world in his hands, he saved you and me brother he put the whole world in his hands....

People of Berlin
People of THE WORLD.

[dashortround]

I think we''re going to see several states go from red to blue this election cycle - and several more states will change from red to grey.

The Republicans have been steadily losing ground virtually everywhere for several years now, and it''s nobody''s fault but their own.

[trbundro1277]

who are those 44 percent idiots that are likely voting for amnesty mccain???

[trbundro1277]

Mccain needs to go to mexico, that is where his people are!

[trbundro1277]

Obama / Edwards 2008!

[trbundro1277]

Say no to amnesty mccain

[trbundro1277]

The authors of this article have confused the election of white Nascar Democrats in statewide elections with a vote on a man who is black, half of whose family is Moslem and actually live in Africa, consorted over a period of 20+ years with radicals who hate the USA, has written that if push came to shove he would stand with the Moslems, one of the most liberal members of the US Senate, who has no significant accomplishments, and who wouldn''''t know a NASCAR race from a jumping frog contest. Not much of a comparison.
Posted by AmJoe at 12:25 AM : Aug 05, 2008
*** Heck, i''d rather watch frogs jump, rather than watch cars run around in circles 500 times! Talk about energy. Lets just cancel nascar races and conserve that gas????

[trbundro1277]

Amnesty Mccain represents Illegal immigrants! I''ll vote for Barak Obama! Obama represents Americans! Amnesty Mccain represents corrupt Big Business! I''d rather a president that stands with our Muslim friends, rather than evil oil execs and walmart execs! Republicans need to pick a better nominee! Vote for Obama! I hate amnesty Mccain!

[trbundro1277]

The authors of this article have confused the election of white Nascar Democrats in statewide elections with a vote on a man who is black, half of whose family is Moslem and actually live in Africa, consorted over a period of 20+ years with radicals who hate the USA, has written that if push came to shove he would stand with the Moslems, one of the most liberal members of the US Senate, who has no significant accomplishments, and who wouldn''''t know a NASCAR race from a jumping frog contest. Not much of a comparison.
Posted by AmJoe at 12:25 AM : Aug 05, 2008
*** other authors of different articles and polls are confused if they think a conservative would actually vote for Amnesty mccain! Mccain represents the rich people and illegal immigrants, not white america! White american will vote for Obama rather than have a president that would allow over 12 million illegals to get amnesty!

[andor3]

"Hillary Democrats, and I am one, will vote for John McCain and the republican ticket."

there are no "Hillary Democrats," just some Repub shills trying to stir up trouble. No Democrat is going to sacrifice his or her values and vote against conscience in some sort of pathetic revenge. Or if they would, they are not a Democrat... in the end vote how you like, but have a good reason for honoring someone with your vote.

[trbundro1277]

I hate Amnesty Mccain!