Aug. 4, 2008
Va. Goes From Red State To Swing State
Washington Post: State That Hasn't Voted Dem For President Since 1964 Is Up For Grabs In 2008
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This year's Fredericksburg Fair had the usual attractions: Hercula the Giant Horse and Black Jack the Giant Steer, the carnival rides and the four-wheeler races. But added to the mix was something Virginians had not seen for decades -- the earnest campaigning of a competitive presidential race.
As the Friday-night crowds entered the fairgrounds in a part of the state on the dividing line between its liberal north and conservative south, volunteers for Sen. Barack Obama's campaign set up post to register voters. "It's time for a change," said one volunteer, Josef Jazvic, 39, an information technology worker helping on a campaign for the first time. "The fact that [Virginia] is even up for grabs tells you a lot."
Virginia hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and President Bush carried the state twice, by nine and eight points. But the campaigns of Obama and his Republican opponent, Sen. John McCain, agree that it has become one of the nation's new swing states, joining the likes of Ohio, Florida and other battlegrounds in determining who will win the White House. The result in the Old Dominion has been a burst of political activity unlike any in modern times.
In early June, after clinching his party's nomination, Obama held his first big rally in Prince William County, the state's second most populous county and one that is critical to his chances of winning Virginia. He has since opened more than two dozen campaign offices across the state and says he has 10,000 volunteers working to deliver its 13 electoral votes.
McCain's national headquarters is in Arlington, and his campaign is trying to mobilize a conservative core that other Republicans have been able to take for granted. Both candidates are seriously considering Virginians as their running mates, perhaps the clearest sign yet that the state has presidential cachet.
"If you had told me four years ago that a Democratic presidential candidate would be running a competitive race in Virginia and would open 10 offices, I would say that is spectacular," said Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, a leading contender to be Obama's running mate. "Now we have a guy who has opened 20 to 30 offices around the state? You've got to be kidding me."
The Obama campaign believes it can win by duplicating the success of Kaine, Sen. James Webb and former governor Mark R. Warner, who have led a Democratic revival in Virginia that would be complete with a win on the presidential level. The campaign hopes to capitalize on Bush's lack of popularity, the changing demographics in Northern Virginia, high turnout -- particularly among younger voters and African Americans -- and a volunteer base that delivered a big win in the Democratic primary in February.
Virginia Republicans acknowledge that the state has become more competitive but predict that it remains inherently conservative, particularly when it comes to national security and other issues at stake in a presidential race.
"We have traditionally been the party who can get their people to the polls when it's a presidential race," said Jerry Kilgore, a former state attorney general from southwest Virginia who lost to Kaine in 2005. "Even in 1996, when [Bill] Clinton was winning every state imaginable, Bob Dole won Virginia because our people showed up."
Both campaigns have been running television ads in the state for weeks, but on the ground the battle is emerging as a contrast in approaches. In keeping with his strategy throughout the primaries, Obama has invested heavily in field operations, opening 28 offices -- including one in tiny Castlewood, in the farthest southwest corner -- and deploying dozens of paid staffers and "fellows," volunteers rcruited from around the country.
His campaign is also relying on native Virginian volunteers -- delegating team leaders in each of the state's 2,600 precincts and encouraging them to organize events, all of which are advertised on the interactive "My Barack Obama" portion of the campaign's Web site.
In Northern Virginia the week of July 21, volunteers ran a nightly phone bank out of offices in Arlington and McLean. They also registered voters at Wolf Trap concerts, movie theaters, grocery stores and a farmer's market. They sent out hundreds of canvassers in the evenings and on weekends, held a house party in Fairfax for the Jewish community, and held issue discussions at restaurants in Arlington and Alexandria.
As volunteer-driven as the campaign is, though, Obama's state leadership in Richmond is asserting closer oversight over voter outreach than did recent Democratic presidential campaigns, which often found themselves duplicating the efforts of those working on their behalf. It plugs all voter contacts into a big database and often deploys a staff member to monitor even small-scale events.
For the past month, much of the Obama campaign's focus has been on registering voters. Virginia has recorded 147,000 new registrations this year -- it does not register by party -- and the campaign's goal is 150,000 more. It estimates that if 80 percent of those new registrants are for Obama, and that if 75 percent show up at the polls, that will mean a gain of more than 60,000 votes -- or an extra 1.75 percent, assuming turnout is around 3.5 million.
To further close the gap, the campaign is targeting what it calls "sporadic" Democrats -- potential supporters who missed at least one recent statewide race and may need a nudge to turn out for Obama -- plus moderate Republicans and independents who may be tempted to cross over. To reach this second group, the campaign is using "micro-targeting" techniques popularized by the 2004 Bush campaign, divining voters' leanings through consumer preferences or other hints.
"For a race that's going to be as close as this is, it will take a lot of pieces of the puzzle for us to add to be successful," said Virginia campaign director Mitch Stewart, a South Dakota native who helped run Obama's primary campaigns in states including Iowa and Indiana.
For the McCain campaign, the challenge is holding on to as much of Bush's 2004 advantage as possible, particularly by trying to win back voters who favored the president but also voted for Warner, Kaine or Webb. It is being undertaken with a ground operation more limited in scope and more hierarchical than Obama's. The campaign, which as elsewhere is working in close concert with the Republican National Committee, has opened six offices statewide, with three more on the way, on the theory that Obama's greater visibility is mostly for show and not worth the cost to match.
Its volunteer efforts are directed out of campaign headquarters and are organized into clearly delineated coalitions, such as veterans, sportsmen, social conservatives and young Republicans. On weekday evenings, 30 or so people from one of the groups take over the phones in McCain's offices in Crystal City, where both his national and Virginia headquarters are based.
By Alec MacGillis and Tim Craig
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
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See all 109 CommentsI take it you posted on this article but haven''t read it yet?
Here, I will help --
**Virginia hasn''t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and President Bush carried the state twice, by nine and eight points.**
Thi is the third paragraph down.
So please, before you start Swiftboat make sure you have gas in your engine.
http://blancadebree.blogspot.com
perhaps mcclone can blame obama for attacking iraq too.
perhaps mcclone can blame obama for attacking iraq too.
How''s life in your upside down world? Virginia hasn''t voted for a Democrat since the Civil Rights Act was signed into law by President Johnson in 1965. Even Carter & Clinton couldn''t carry Virginia.
Things change and Virginia has changed.
Now go back to Rush and let him fill you with more lies and propaganda.
vietnam 21 the word is spelled propaganda. And no matter how many times you say it , Virginia is now a swing state.
Perhaps you should listen to Limbaugh he led you to George Bush who has proven what a great source of news fox and Limbaugh really are.
You can see they''re starting to sweat.
OBAMALAMADINGDONG WILL NOT WIN THIS ELECTION PEOPLE.
IT''S A FACT.
Now they are talking about how VA could be a swing state. Ubama has a great ally in the LAMEstream media.
Hasn''t anyone noticed?
I think you libs better start packing your bags (at least the ones who promised to leave America if McCain gets elected.) LOL
You mean the guy who won the Nobel Peace Prize? That dumb guy?
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Posted by Peterp111 at 01:55 PM : Aug 04, 2008
What kid of drugs you on Boy!
Posted by Peterp111 at 04:17 PM : Aug 04, 2008
Most of them are too young to remember the abysmal Jimmah Carter presidency. They are also dumb enough to think that the rank and file DNC losers will let a junior senator from IL actually run things (if elected.)
They''ll give him a few things to make it look like he''s actually doing something, but they''ll be telling HIM what to do!
In addition, if Obama is again "over polling" like he consistently did in the primaries, then he is in trouble.
smart4peace & antoniof123 & zoe2006
McLame has to bash OBAMA because the Republican Party has nothing new to offer and DouschBag Bushie has jacked up this economy and spent Billions on a Loosing stay the course strategy in IRAQ.
George W.Bush wanted to be a War Time President and has become the BIGGEST LOOSER President this country has ever had, FAR BELOW NIXON.
Good RIDANCE TO George W. Bush and all the other DouschBAG Bushies and Cheneys.
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