Va. Goes From Red State To Swing State

Washington Post: State That Hasn't Voted Dem For President Since 1964 Is Up For Grabs In 2008

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Alec MacGillis and Tim Craig.

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This year's Fredericksburg Fair had the usual attractions: Hercula the Giant Horse and Black Jack the Giant Steer, the carnival rides and the four-wheeler races. But added to the mix was something Virginians had not seen for decades -- the earnest campaigning of a competitive presidential race.

As the Friday-night crowds entered the fairgrounds in a part of the state on the dividing line between its liberal north and conservative south, volunteers for Sen. Barack Obama's campaign set up post to register voters. "It's time for a change," said one volunteer, Josef Jazvic, 39, an information technology worker helping on a campaign for the first time. "The fact that [Virginia] is even up for grabs tells you a lot."

Virginia hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and President Bush carried the state twice, by nine and eight points. But the campaigns of Obama and his Republican opponent, Sen. John McCain, agree that it has become one of the nation's new swing states, joining the likes of Ohio, Florida and other battlegrounds in determining who will win the White House. The result in the Old Dominion has been a burst of political activity unlike any in modern times.

In early June, after clinching his party's nomination, Obama held his first big rally in Prince William County, the state's second most populous county and one that is critical to his chances of winning Virginia. He has since opened more than two dozen campaign offices across the state and says he has 10,000 volunteers working to deliver its 13 electoral votes.

McCain's national headquarters is in Arlington, and his campaign is trying to mobilize a conservative core that other Republicans have been able to take for granted. Both candidates are seriously considering Virginians as their running mates, perhaps the clearest sign yet that the state has presidential cachet.

"If you had told me four years ago that a Democratic presidential candidate would be running a competitive race in Virginia and would open 10 offices, I would say that is spectacular," said Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, a leading contender to be Obama's running mate. "Now we have a guy who has opened 20 to 30 offices around the state? You've got to be kidding me."

The Obama campaign believes it can win by duplicating the success of Kaine, Sen. James Webb and former governor Mark R. Warner, who have led a Democratic revival in Virginia that would be complete with a win on the presidential level. The campaign hopes to capitalize on Bush's lack of popularity, the changing demographics in Northern Virginia, high turnout -- particularly among younger voters and African Americans -- and a volunteer base that delivered a big win in the Democratic primary in February.

Virginia Republicans acknowledge that the state has become more competitive but predict that it remains inherently conservative, particularly when it comes to national security and other issues at stake in a presidential race.

"We have traditionally been the party who can get their people to the polls when it's a presidential race," said Jerry Kilgore, a former state attorney general from southwest Virginia who lost to Kaine in 2005. "Even in 1996, when [Bill] Clinton was winning every state imaginable, Bob Dole won Virginia because our people showed up."

Both campaigns have been running television ads in the state for weeks, but on the ground the battle is emerging as a contrast in approaches. In keeping with his strategy throughout the primaries, Obama has invested heavily in field operations, opening 28 offices -- including one in tiny Castlewood, in the farthest southwest corner -- and deploying dozens of paid staffers and "fellows," volunteers rcruited from around the country.

His campaign is also relying on native Virginian volunteers -- delegating team leaders in each of the state's 2,600 precincts and encouraging them to organize events, all of which are advertised on the interactive "My Barack Obama" portion of the campaign's Web site.

In Northern Virginia the week of July 21, volunteers ran a nightly phone bank out of offices in Arlington and McLean. They also registered voters at Wolf Trap concerts, movie theaters, grocery stores and a farmer's market. They sent out hundreds of canvassers in the evenings and on weekends, held a house party in Fairfax for the Jewish community, and held issue discussions at restaurants in Arlington and Alexandria.

As volunteer-driven as the campaign is, though, Obama's state leadership in Richmond is asserting closer oversight over voter outreach than did recent Democratic presidential campaigns, which often found themselves duplicating the efforts of those working on their behalf. It plugs all voter contacts into a big database and often deploys a staff member to monitor even small-scale events.

For the past month, much of the Obama campaign's focus has been on registering voters. Virginia has recorded 147,000 new registrations this year -- it does not register by party -- and the campaign's goal is 150,000 more. It estimates that if 80 percent of those new registrants are for Obama, and that if 75 percent show up at the polls, that will mean a gain of more than 60,000 votes -- or an extra 1.75 percent, assuming turnout is around 3.5 million.

To further close the gap, the campaign is targeting what it calls "sporadic" Democrats -- potential supporters who missed at least one recent statewide race and may need a nudge to turn out for Obama -- plus moderate Republicans and independents who may be tempted to cross over. To reach this second group, the campaign is using "micro-targeting" techniques popularized by the 2004 Bush campaign, divining voters' leanings through consumer preferences or other hints.

"For a race that's going to be as close as this is, it will take a lot of pieces of the puzzle for us to add to be successful," said Virginia campaign director Mitch Stewart, a South Dakota native who helped run Obama's primary campaigns in states including Iowa and Indiana.

For the McCain campaign, the challenge is holding on to as much of Bush's 2004 advantage as possible, particularly by trying to win back voters who favored the president but also voted for Warner, Kaine or Webb. It is being undertaken with a ground operation more limited in scope and more hierarchical than Obama's. The campaign, which as elsewhere is working in close concert with the Republican National Committee, has opened six offices statewide, with three more on the way, on the theory that Obama's greater visibility is mostly for show and not worth the cost to match.

Its volunteer efforts are directed out of campaign headquarters and are organized into clearly delineated coalitions, such as veterans, sportsmen, social conservatives and young Republicans. On weekday evenings, 30 or so people from one of the groups take over the phones in McCain's offices in Crystal City, where both his national and Virginia headquarters are based.

[bfjones666]

Says a lot about the Republican party in general and John Sydney McCain III in particular. And don''t even look south to Florida. Obama didn''t even campaign there and John McCain''s once 22 point lead is now -2. That''s right, Rasmussen has Obama UP by 2 in Florida. Poor Johnny. If you can''t get those white folks in Virginia and those old folks in Florida, who you got left?

[nkgilb]

The republican party has ruined America both home and abroad and John McCain says he is willing to continue with those kinds of policies.

Economically, we are unstable and less secured, people are loosing their homes, unemployment rate have gone high, gas is now a big problems for commuters, food prices are so high and yet Americans still want to vote in McBush? we deserve the president we vote for.

please America vote smart this time around, vote Obama!

And beside, why is John McCain angry and bitter constantly even through all is negative campaign ads, he comes off so angry to me? is it because he has nothing positive to run on, so he goes negative?

[trishab4]

He could have visited them by himself without all of the fan fare, but he decided not to WHY; because he wants to bath in his own glory. He is what he is, if you just look. Wait until he makes his trip to Rome, your last wakeup call.
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Posted by alien_view at 09:20 AM : Aug 05, 2008

-The real Devil Liar935Bush himslef went there and there was nothing but signs of quiet... Actually Ben16 is Bush''s brother in devilism. They had a lot of invasion and war discussions. They sealed their treaty over with a glass of red blooded wine... check it out, you fairytale lunatic believer!

[trishab4]

He could have visited them by himself without all of the fan fare, but he decided not to WHY; because he wants to bath in his own glory. He is what he is, if you just look. Wait until he makes his trip to Rome, your last wakeup call.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted by alien_view at 09:20 AM : Aug 05, 2008

-The real Devil Liar935Bush himslef went there and there was nothing but signs of quiet... Actually Ben16 is Bush''s brother in devilism. They had a lot of invasion and war discussions. They sealed their treaty over with a glass of red blooded wine... check it out, you fairytale lunatic believer!

[mycommentspg]

Study the real issues and the real candidates, your choice in November will be easy. http://mycommentspage.blogspot.com/

[alien_view]

Everytime I hear Obama talk, he is for change and talks about being the leader the WORLD is looking for. I wonder if he is not the anti-christ. I started worrying about this after his remarks on his European trip and that fake prayer, in the wall just to get more press attention and then the cold shoulder to our wounded troops. He could have visited them by himself without all of the fan fare, but he decided not to WHY; because he wants to bath in his own glory. He is what he is, if you just look. Wait until he makes his trip to Rome, your last wakeup call.

[concerns47]

Just look into Obama when talking about an love child, maybe no but his background before government service is different than projected, ask people who really know him but don''t want to talk about him. Who exactly on Wall Street offered him a high paying job that he turned down, has anyone come forward to say we wish we hired him.

[concerns47]

Flip flopping = shifting strategy, reassessing strategy, adjusting strategy

How come everyone uses flip flop when they speak of McCain but shifting strategies when it is Obama?

[concerns47]

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/obamas_oil_spill.html

[mcvent]

Obama a man who, upon securing the Democratic nomination, said, %u201CI am absolutely certain that generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal%u201D;

Only the Messiah the Anoited one could do this our Savior Obama is like God or Jesus parting the seas, healing the world.

He put the whole world in his hand in put whole wide world in his hands, he saved you and me brother he put the whole world in his hands....

People of Berlin
People of THE WORLD.

[dashortround]

I think we''re going to see several states go from red to blue this election cycle - and several more states will change from red to grey.

The Republicans have been steadily losing ground virtually everywhere for several years now, and it''s nobody''s fault but their own.

[trbundro1277]

who are those 44 percent idiots that are likely voting for amnesty mccain???

[trbundro1277]

Mccain needs to go to mexico, that is where his people are!

[trbundro1277]

Obama / Edwards 2008!

[trbundro1277]

Say no to amnesty mccain

[trbundro1277]

The authors of this article have confused the election of white Nascar Democrats in statewide elections with a vote on a man who is black, half of whose family is Moslem and actually live in Africa, consorted over a period of 20+ years with radicals who hate the USA, has written that if push came to shove he would stand with the Moslems, one of the most liberal members of the US Senate, who has no significant accomplishments, and who wouldn''''t know a NASCAR race from a jumping frog contest. Not much of a comparison.
Posted by AmJoe at 12:25 AM : Aug 05, 2008
*** Heck, i''d rather watch frogs jump, rather than watch cars run around in circles 500 times! Talk about energy. Lets just cancel nascar races and conserve that gas????

[trbundro1277]

Amnesty Mccain represents Illegal immigrants! I''ll vote for Barak Obama! Obama represents Americans! Amnesty Mccain represents corrupt Big Business! I''d rather a president that stands with our Muslim friends, rather than evil oil execs and walmart execs! Republicans need to pick a better nominee! Vote for Obama! I hate amnesty Mccain!

[trbundro1277]

The authors of this article have confused the election of white Nascar Democrats in statewide elections with a vote on a man who is black, half of whose family is Moslem and actually live in Africa, consorted over a period of 20+ years with radicals who hate the USA, has written that if push came to shove he would stand with the Moslems, one of the most liberal members of the US Senate, who has no significant accomplishments, and who wouldn''''t know a NASCAR race from a jumping frog contest. Not much of a comparison.
Posted by AmJoe at 12:25 AM : Aug 05, 2008
*** other authors of different articles and polls are confused if they think a conservative would actually vote for Amnesty mccain! Mccain represents the rich people and illegal immigrants, not white america! White american will vote for Obama rather than have a president that would allow over 12 million illegals to get amnesty!

[andor3]

"Hillary Democrats, and I am one, will vote for John McCain and the republican ticket."

there are no "Hillary Democrats," just some Repub shills trying to stir up trouble. No Democrat is going to sacrifice his or her values and vote against conscience in some sort of pathetic revenge. Or if they would, they are not a Democrat... in the end vote how you like, but have a good reason for honoring someone with your vote.

[trbundro1277]

I hate Amnesty Mccain!